***September Micro Thread***

[RogueRivered]

That said, the following stats (HEM, i dunno how PT3 works) would give a fairly comprehensive view of potential postflop leaks (by position would be best): VPIP/PFR/Agg, Steal%, WTSD/W$SD, Flop Cbet%/Flop Cbet% Success/Turn Cbet%/Turn Cbet% Success/Bet River%, Fold Flop vs Cbet%/Flop Raise Cbet.

For the month so far at 10nl 6-max, I'm at Vpip 16.8/ PFR 11.7/Agg 2.05, Steal 29%/53% success, WTSD 25%, W$SD 50%, Flop Cbet 66%/55% success, Turn Cbet 38%/33% success/Bet River 19%, Fold Flop vs Cbet 64%/Flop Raise Cbet 6% (is this low?). Grand total 24500 hands, -0.01 bb/100, -$2.73, and $211 in rake paid (pokerstars). If only I could get rakeback!

You can choose whatever, and I'll still comment but the above stats are what I look at to analyze my own game.

Thanks, I really appreciate it. Looking forward to your take on all these stats.

A cbet success rate of 55% is immensely high and probably immediately profitable depending on your cbet size (I can show the math if you're interested). You can most certainly cbet more and be immediately profitable.

I've been reading a couple of books about the math of poker. Can't remember which one, but it says that cbets should be profitable as long as there are no more than 2 high cards on the flop. One high card is very profitable, two is marginal, only 3 is unprofitable -- and it goes through the math of your opponent staying in the hand with any pair or draw. I like to go with that, rather than trying to determine whether the board is wet or dry.

The turn cbet success rate is pretty much in line with my stats and they tell the same story: If people are calling you on the flop, they are also calling you with the same thing on the turn. What does this mean? Don't double barrel with air too much (in position, having A high often helps with double barrels because if villain misses a broad way draw of some sort, you may still pick up the pot by checking behind on the river). I see a lot of "people should turn barrel more" comments but I firmly believe that unless you think people are floating you light, you shouldn't double barrel all that much.

Whenever I've tried to double-barrel, which has been more lately, it has actually been unprofitable. Like you said, if they call you on the flop, they'll most likely call on the turn. Lately, though, I've been running into a ton of check-raises. What's gotten into people? I'm not used to that.

I'm not sure this has anything to do with your red line. I'm assuming that you don't fold the river a lot meaning that you could potentially have a higher blue line by betting more for value. This is definitely a leak but it has nothing to do with your non-showdown winnings.

Well, if I bet more often on the river with marginal hands, I'd lose more often, so my blue line would come down. Also, if I fold on the river to a bet with these marginal hands, that really hurts my red line. Maybe that's all there is to it. I'll have to think about that deeper -- I'm not sure of all the ramifications.

FPPs are overrated. Money > FPPs. Unless you need to sustain your current rate to get Supernova, it's not worth it imo.

I'm about to unlock a $100 bonus, so that's kind of nice, and I've already bought $48 worth of bonuses this month with FPPs, so I am getting some benefit, although small. I'm really trying to make it to GoldStar this month only playing 10nl -- bet there aren't too many people that could say that! It's a challenge to myself, although maybe not a financially sound one.

Meh... I personally have no problem with your halfstacking as long as you know how to bet size appropriately because you'll have the advantage of knowing 50bb effective stack size strategy better than your opponents. That said, I think it's better to learn full stack poker unless you intend to half stack even after moving up. Why would you want to relearn all the strategies, bet sizes, and SPR's all over again?

Actually the book Professional No Limit Hold-em reluctantly recommends playing with 40BBs to more easily play top pairs and overpairs -- that's what I've been trying to do. I think I'll be able to adjust to full stacks (I did at 5nl), and, yes, I will probably start out with 50BBs at 25nl. I'm used to having $12.50 on a table, but I think $25 would freak me out at this point. $2 used to freak me out -- it's all about comfort level for me.

Thanks, everyone, for your advice. I may not always follow it, but I definitely carefully consider it, and I review my database to see if I can substantiate it against the kinds of opponents I play against.

 

[slycbnew]

Well, if I bet more often on the river with marginal hands, I'd lose more often, so my blue line would come down. Also, if I fold on the river to a bet with these marginal hands, that really hurts my red line. Maybe that's all there is to it. I'll have to think about that deeper -- I'm not sure of all the ramifications.

Think about this as well - one of the biggest "leaks" is not value betting the river thinly enough. It's a difficult skill to acquire, because you need to review the play of the entire hand and the villain you're playing against and determine when "thin" is too thin, and what to do if villain raises your "thin" value bet. But note that a value bet that is thin in some situations and against some villains is not at all thin against other villains in other situations - I called an all-in on the river today w top two pair on a possible straight board against a very agg villain that I would've folded to a very passive villain.

Also, I read an awesome post on another forum from a coach at one of the popular training sites - stats can guide you to identify leaks, but you need to focus on what the correct plays are in different situations. Once you play the situations well, your stats will "naturally" evolve to good stats.

Actually the book Professional No Limit Hold-em reluctantly recommends playing with 40BBs to more easily play top pairs and overpairs -- that's what I've been trying to do.

Difference in emphasis - PNLHE says that top pair/overpairs are easier to play at 40BB or less, cuz there's no decision making - get your money in the middle, you're not making an SPR mistake. They're not really recommending playing 40BBs from a strategic standpoint, the big money opportunities kick in when you're deepstacked (say 200BBs).

embedded comments.

gl w goldstar, gogogogo!!!

 

[WurlyQ]

+1 to what slycb wrote. I know you MMT which inhibits your ability to reconstruct hands and gain proper reads which in turn hurts your cbetting, flop check/raising vs cbets, and river value bets which are critical parts of ring play. While I won't say that MMT is unprofitable even at the low stakes as long as you balance your ranges and can read boards, it is essentially a "bot" play that becomes less profitable as you move up in limits. Finding general leaks may improve your play, especially when MMTing, but do note that it is more of a "leak plugging" than an "improving poker play."

For the month so far at 10nl 6-max, I'm at Vpip 16.8/ PFR 11.7/Agg 2.05, Steal 29%/53% success, WTSD 25%, W$SD 50%, Flop Cbet 66%/55% success, Turn Cbet 38%/33% success/Bet River 19%, Fold Flop vs Cbet 64%/Flop Raise Cbet 6% (is this low?). Grand total 24500 hands, -0.01 bb/100, -$2.73, and $211 in rake paid (PokerStars). If only I could get rakeback!

-11.7 PFR is probably a bit low given your 16.8 vpip which can probably be compensated for by stealing more.
-66% cbet with 55% success means you need to cbet more for the reasons I outlined previously. 38% cbet with 33% success seems about right as long as you don't double barrel that much.
-Bet river 19% is definitely too low. If you're having a hard time finding spots, a good start would be to river value bet loose passive fish because you never have to worry about being blown off the hand to a bluff. If they raise, you are beat.
-Flop raise cbet 6% is way too low. With a fold flop vs cbet 64%, you're essentially calling cbets 30% of the time and raising only 6% of the time. Be the aggressor! A good place to start would be to raise in position with draws or on dry boards with two overs.

I've been reading a couple of books about the math of poker. Can't remember which one, but it says that cbets should be profitable as long as there are no more than 2 high cards on the flop. One high card is very profitable, two is marginal, only 3 is unprofitable -- and it goes through the math of your opponent staying in the hand with any pair or draw. I like to go with that, rather than trying to determine whether the board is wet or dry.

I guess a good but very very general rule of thumb. I base my cbets on board texture as well as villain range so I really don't know how you should go about cbetting more...

Well, if I bet more often on the river with marginal hands, I'd lose more often, so my blue line would come down. Also, if I fold on the river to a bet with these marginal hands, that really hurts my red line. Maybe that's all there is to it. I'll have to think about that deeper -- I'm not sure of all the ramifications.

So by betting your marginal hands, you're afraid you're going to get raised off the best hand? People at 10nl rarely bluff raise the river without the nuts. By betting, I would think you get a lot more folds that the times you get bluff raised meaning your red line should actually improve. As stated before, start against loose passives where you don't have to worry about getting raised.

I'm about to unlock a $100 bonus, so that's kind of nice, and I've already bought $48 worth of bonuses this month with FPPs, so I am getting some benefit, although small. I'm really trying to make it to GoldStar this month only playing 10nl -- bet there aren't too many people that could say that! It's a challenge to myself, although maybe not a financially sound one.

I know we've already gone over this, but I'd again like to stress how overrated VPPs are. I don't know what your motivations of playing poker are, but just a little perspective: Gold star is essentially worth something around ~$20 to you which could easily be obtained by a higher bb/100 not to mention the long term rewards of improved play.

 

[JimmyBrizzy]

I earn FPPs too slow at 5nl and my bankroll isn't quite high enough to full stack at 10nl yet, but it will be soon. Often, though, I double up my half stack and play with a full stack and above a high percentage of the time, so it's not really that bad. I feel a little more comfortable psychologically playing a full stack after doubling up than buying in full in the first place. It's just a comfort level thing and I'm gradually increasing the amounts.



I'm not sure what I'm missing by playing this way. It seems like tons of time. I am stacking tables, so it's not like my attention is scattered all over the place at once.

What's the biggest difference between half-stacking and full-stacking? I gather that it's mainly set-mining and playing suited connectors profitably, which doesn't work with half a stack, but, he-he, it's a good defense against set-miners and sc players. Anything else? I like the SPRs with half-stacks when I have a strong pair.

I appreciate all your feedback -- this is a great community!

What's with you and FPP's? Seems like some weird obsession. I guess it's hard for me to recommend any type of strategy when I'm not sure what your goals are in poker. If you're trying to improve your game and move up, I would have to recommend learning to play with a full stack and cutting back on tables. This works for the vast majority of successful cash game players.

The biggest difference between half stack and a full stack is 50bb's. And that adds up over time. Set's make up a shit load of money in SSNL so don't kid yourself by ignoring that value. You don't have proper set mining odds at 50bb's, and I'm not sure pushing with some of the lower pp's PF is the same as doing it w/ a short stack.

I think the reason you're betting such a small amount of rivers out of 25,000 hands is because you're playing with a half stack and have no money left by the time you get there. You're probably all in, or should be, before the river hits.

The deeper you play, the more complex the hands will get and the more complicated decisions will be. If you are trying to avoid this, 50bb's makes more sense, and I guess i can't blame you if you can play profitably right now and would rather not relearn how to play with a deeper stack. Also realize if you do decide to buy in for full stacks at 16 tables for 6max this means the hands you are involved in will probably be extended (you will probably go to showdown with more hands) and will have to make more important decisions on later streets. I think this might cause major problems with your game.

Anyway, good luck. Keep us updated. Maybe you can be the first to write a strategy guide to 50bb poker!

 

[alvinpe]

This depends a lot on villain.

In general, though, I think you're describing a donk bet, where you bet into the pf raiser. The pfr will frequently raise a wide range, including overpairs bigger than yours, but also tptk type hands, sometimes even overcards because you're donk betting.

If you're talking about say JJ on a 9 hi flop, we should have 3bet pf, in which case this wouldn't be a donk bet.

Like I said, though, this is very villain dependent - some villains will fold without an overpair or set, some villains will bet aggressively with air to knock you off your hand. Against the former, you obviously fold. Against the latter, you may want to call and see what the turn card is.

Should I bet before ako Pf raiser? Or Should I let him bet then cr him?

 

[slycbnew]

Should I bet before ako Pf raiser? Or Should I let him bet then cr him?

I hate to say this, but it depends.

Ch/r's tend to look stronger than donk bets, but that's also villain dependent - some villains will only donk bet sets on drawy boards and use ch/r's for other strong and weak hands, other villains will donk bet draws and weak pairs hoping pfr can't continue.

Ch/r'ing a set can be very effective if you believe villain's range is heavily weighted to QQ+ on a T high board. But ch/r'ing can also fold out hands that you want to keep in the hand - if villain regularly two barrels, raising the turn may be better than raising the flop. As an example, I'm much more likely to continue a hand in the face of a donk bet than a ch/r.

Interesting topic - I know that a lot of people (myself included) don't have a solid structured strategy for donk betting and for defending against donk bets.

Does anybody remember where that one really good thread on why you shouldn't donk bet is? I remember reading it, I think it's from quite a while ago, but I don't remember who wrote it.

 

[Caseace48]

haha I know nothing about 6 max really, but Rogue for someone playing micro limits your completely sabotaging yourself. You not allowing your self to learn full stack poker which is the most profitable in ring games while playing limits when you should be learning the core fundamentals (which full stack poker is a core fundamental). On top of that your playing 16 tables trying to unlock a VIP status level that does absolutely nothing for you. If you were constantly improving and playing fewer tables at full stacks you would be earning profitz at the tables that far exceed the cash bonuses your seeking. The amount of time you've invested into poker and these threads I would have expected you to be at 25NL by now, but your constantly slowing yourself down by approaching the game backwards IMO. If your going to put your own time into something please try it the right way, you seek our help every single day but for some reason completely ignore most of our advice....its very puzzling. We only want for you to get better as a player but if you arnt going to listen it doesn't make myself or anyone else really want to continue to help. I play FR and until I hit 50NL I never played above 12-14 tables, especially at the micro limits. There is a time and a place to mass multi table, but your not at that time or place, especially playing 6 max. Continue how you want but your not helping yourself at all....not trying to be hurtful , just truthful. If this is how you want to continue playing I totally respect it, but stop asking for our advice when we've given you the same answers each time

 

[eNTy]

^ that pretty much

 

[RogueRivered]

I'm taking to heart everything you guys are telling me, so don't get me wrong, I do appreciate it. I am getting a lot of experience in deep stack poker -- every time I play, I have more than 100bb on several tables. It's inevitable that I double up often playing 50bbs, and I don't just leave like short stackers do. I only tend to get nervous at around 200+bb, which I need to work on.

The advice on betting thinner on the river is great -- I know that will help a ton. Also, raising cbets more often rather than calling is an eye-opener. That's what I love about this thread, little tidbits like these come out when we start really discussing strategy.

I'm really interested in the upcoming donk bet discussions, too. I have a few theories, but that's all they are. More experienced players can easily change my mind.

I believe I try to follow all the advice I get here, although I will admit that I think I'm more cut out for striving to be a "rakeback pro" sort of player. I can't see myself playing for big money on few tables in the long run -- I just feel like I'm more suited to playing lower stakes but higher volume. As someone mentioned, Belgo I think, my goals are to be more like Nanonoko, not Durrr.

Ultimately, I'm not sure what my goals in poker are. Right now, I'm just having fun. I'm basically retired but wouldn't mind bringing in some extra cash with playing a couple of hours a day.

 

[JimmyBrizzy]

Ultimately, I'm not sure what my goals in poker are. Right now, I'm just having fun. I'm basically retired but wouldn't mind bringing in some extra cash with playing a couple of hours a day.

Well, I guess I give up trying to convert you to our side...haha, I don't think I've ever tried more than that.

Personally, playing 25k hands for -$3.00 at microstakes does not seem fun. It actually seems like it would frustrate the hell out of me!

If you don't mind me asking, what did you do that you were able to retire?(I'm assuming you're on the younger side of the retirement spectrum)

 

[RogueRivered]

Well, I guess I give up trying to convert you to our side...haha, I don't think I've ever tried more than that.

Personally, playing 25k hands for -$3.00 at microstakes does not seem fun. It actually seems like it would frustrate the hell out of me!

If you don't mind me asking, what did you do that you were able to retire?(I'm assuming you're on the younger side of the retirement spectrum)

Oh, I think it's working. I'm starting to see the light. I played a session today with 4 tables and bet the river 80% of the time. It went pretty well, although with only 98 hands, it could be all variance.

I just checked my database to see how much experience I have with 100+ bb hands, and I've played almost 80,000 of them, winning 17.5 bbs/100 at 2nl, 7.8 bbs/100 at 5nl, and 16.5 bbs/100 at 10nl, so I'm not sure why people keep telling me I need to learn to play a big stack. I mean, I know I'm still pretty bad and have a lot to learn, but it's not like I've never done it.

This will actually be my best month ever if I stay even at the tables, all due to bonuses.

As for my semi-retirement, I won the lottery (or something like that). After that, I ran a software download site for about 7 years, with employees and the whole nine yards. Glad to not be doing that anymore. I'm married and have an eleven year-old son who seems to be getting interested in poker.

 

[WurlyQ]

Wow what is up with me today... I just went totally ape (*$# today losing 1.5 buy ins for no reason other than a few bad turn and rivers and bluffing way too much... Quite possibly the worst session Ive played in my life. When disciplined aggression turns into undisciplined aggression, things go south very quickly... I am totally done for today before I go about dropping 10 buy ins.

 

[Caseace48]

Oh, I think it's working. I'm starting to see the light. I played a session today with 4 tables and bet the river 80% of the time. It went pretty well, although with only 98 hands, it could be all variance.

I just checked my database to see how much experience I have with 100+ bb hands, and I've played almost 80,000 of them, winning 17.5 bbs/100 at 2nl, 7.8 bbs/100 at 5nl, and 16.5 bbs/100 at 10nl, so I'm not sure why people keep telling me I need to learn to play a big stack. I mean, I know I'm still pretty bad and have a lot to learn, but it's not like I've never done it.

This will actually be my best month ever if I stay even at the tables, all due to bonuses.

As for my semi-retirement, I won the lottery (or something like that). After that, I ran a software download site for about 7 years, with employees and the whole nine yards. Glad to not be doing that anymore. I'm married and have an eleven year-old son who seems to be getting interested in poker.

Thats great like I said before I respect your goals and ambitions for poker, and I hope you continue to get better. I just didnt want you to be surprised if advice becomes less readily given due to the lack of retention of it. Hope things keep going well for you!

 

[eNTy]

dude what are u doing playing poker if u won the lottery ?
winning the lottery means you and everyone you know or even glanced at have forfeited every chance at any run good ever ever ever

 

[RogueRivered]

Thats great like I said before I respect your goals and ambitions for poker, and I hope you continue to get better. I just didnt want you to be surprised if advice becomes less readily given due to the lack of retention of it. Hope things keep going well for you!

Thanks, man. I'm having fun, and that's the main thing. I don't want it to become a grind (like a job). hehe.

dude what are u doing playing poker if u won the lottery ?
winning the lottery means you and everyone you know or even glanced at have forfeited every chance at any run good ever ever ever

I watched one of your videos -- does that count?

No, really, I think my proven luck will make me a winner no matter how bad I play.

Funny, I just read this today on the Noted Poker Authority e-mail:

The river is the betting round where hand reading skills translate most directly to winning cash. If you can’t hand read for beans, you can still survive at no-limit if you focus on avoiding the river. You can play short-stacked and rely on a tight opening range and some preflop stealing to grind out a profit.

That's what I've always done, but I'm trying to expand my horizons thanks to all of you. I bought in full pretty much all day today (and earned my bonus). Yay. And, yeah, I can't read for beans, but I'm getting better. Today I guessed the hands that they had -- now, if I could have just believed my reads and folded, today would have been even better.

 

[slycbnew]

Funny, I just read this today on the Noted Poker Authority e-mail:

The river is the betting round where hand reading skills translate most directly to winning cash. If you can’t hand read for beans, you can still survive at no-limit if you focus on avoiding the river. You can play short-stacked and rely on a tight opening range and some preflop stealing to grind out a profit.

I'm really reluctant to point this out, since I think you'll benefit huge from playing 100bb's and learning more about hand reading - but to really benefit from this strategy, you would need to drop down to 20bb bi's. Anything in the middle of 20bb's and 100bb's is awkward from an SPR standpoint (if avoiding the river is good, might as well avoid the turn as well, 20BB's does that for you)...

If you do this, please don't move up to limits I'm playing...

jk, I either try to bust ss's or leave the table depending on how good I think they are, so it doesn't really matter to me - though I'm always tickled pink watching two "bad" ss's fighting for the same pot, I virtually never stay on a table w 2 ss's - if you're having fun and the money is less important than the fun, have fun!

 

[RogueRivered]

I never noticed how many short stacks there are at the tables until I started buying in full. I've seen them, of course, but somehow starting with 100bbs makes the short stacks that much more noticeable. Don't worry, I'm not going to go to 20bbs. I thought 50bb was kind of a compromise, but instead it could be the worst of both worlds. 50bbs did allow me to avoid the river if I wasn't feeling confident, as evidenced by my previous poor river bet stats.

You're right about PNLHE, they don't recommend 40 or 50 bb stacks, they just say it makes top pair easier to play. I thought easier was better, but I see it's not as profitable.

 

[Johnnybmoto]

Finally broke the $100 mark

 

[Jurn8]

havent had the internet for 5 days now, got it yesterday and my hard drive goes on my laptop, I take it back and they are sending it back to HP minimum 2 weeks until I get it back, **** that so I went and purchased another one!

Yet again I have lost all my data, sigh!

 

[ace2daface]

hey micro dudes. I have not been using HEM or a hud for a while now. about mid july as i got an error message when i tried to open it.

Long story - but in the end i had a teamviewer session with Hem and they say that i have to re-install vista as it is corrupt!! now i cant find my vista disk that im sure came with my laptop so FML.

been doing ok without it but i think im missing out on alot of value not having one when im multi tabling. only playing about 6 tables at 25nl.
Dont know what stats im running but i reckon too loose and cant do any leak analysis.

I think if i send of receipt to microsoft they might replace my vista?

 

[eNTy]

possibly, or download vista

 

[ace2daface]

possibly, or download vista

will i not need a product code or summit - not very computer savvy, ya knwo

 

[eNTy]

there are ways around all that

 

[RogueRivered]

Note to self -- back-up hand histories.

Sorry to hear of all the computer troubles.

 

[Lemlywinks]

Note to self -- back-up hand histories.

Sorry to hear of all the computer troubles.

fo sho. lost mine twice