Odds are really odds? Or just the hope of odds/luck?

[kelvin22]

Odds will be odds... in a math point of view

Think of it this way... Are the odds different when your playing a 9 table from when your heads-up? From a mathematical standpoint, and if we are to consider the odds calculator on this website, the answer is NO. The odds are the same. However, if you were to input probabilistic calculus, the odds of hitting a "Hail Mary" or simply a card that you need to win the hand, would significantly be higher when your heads-up than in a 9 player table, because the probability for the card you need, still existing in the remaining cards is about 7 times higher (still it doesn't mean you will hit it, the chance for that being significantly lower than in a 9 player table). But such a formula would rely on algorithms that probably haven't been invented yet, or simply would require to much time and processing power to calculate. Just a guess, but i think gamblers have been trying at that since the "invention" of such games. Poker, as much as it is about gambling, is about science, and not a very complicated one. It's sad that nowadays (at least when it comes to online poker), people rely mostly on their gut, playing against the odds, and mixing live playing styles with the online game. Odds by definition, are just that. In my opinion the hardest thing to learn in poker is... folding, whether you like it or not. Also, the rules are there for a reason, and were not written by someone who didn't have anything better to do. Combining the odds, with the rules, and knowing when to fold has proven to be the way to go in the long-term. Then again "karma is a b...tch" and you could find yourself playing against someone who is just... incredibly lucky, and will call you with anything, simply relying on luck, in which case... all the science stuff, doesn't mean squat... your odds would still be zero to none.

 

[Vachina]

Think of it this way... Are the odds different when your playing a 9 table from when your heads-up? From a mathematical standpoint, and if we are to consider the odds calculator on this website, the answer is NO. The odds are the same. However, if you were to input probabilistic calculus, the odds of hitting a "Hail Mary" or simply a card that you need to win the hand, would significantly be higher when your heads-up than in a 9 player table, because the probability for the card you need, still existing in the remaining cards is about 7 times higher (still it doesn't mean you will hit it, the chance for that being significantly lower than in a 9 player table). But such a formula would rely on algorithms that probably haven't been invented yet, or simply would require to much time and processing power to calculate. Just a guess, but i think gamblers have been trying at that since the "invention" of such games. Poker, as much as it is about gambling, is about science, and not a very complicated one. It's sad that nowadays (at least when it comes to online poker), people rely mostly on their gut, playing against the odds, and mixing live playing styles with the online game. Odds by definition, are just that. In my opinion the hardest thing to learn in poker is... folding, whether you like it or not. Also, the rules are there for a reason, and were not written by someone who didn't have anything better to do. Combining the odds, with the rules, and knowing when to fold has proven to be the way to go in the long-term. Then again "karma is a b...tch" and you could find yourself playing against someone who is just... incredibly lucky, and will call you with anything, simply relying on luck, in which case... all the science stuff, doesn't mean squat... your odds would still be zero to none.

It makes no difference since you have absolutely no knowledge of which of the cards were folded. If one of the guys that have folded told you his exact two cards you would be able to make use of that information. But having an information about two cards out of 10 being folded doesn't provide you any useful insight.

Your oponents will fold a card that you need sometimes and sometimes they will fold all the cards that you do not need this increasing you odds of hitting, but you do not know that unless they tell you what they have folded or unless you have an xray vision.

It's the same as that experiment with cat in a box with a flask of poison. Until you open a box cat is both dead and alive.

Sorry and Regards

 

[Rawgame74]

Leaving aside the winning odds of AA or KK preflop and the head to head matches, the odds calculation before and after the Flop, the Turn and the River, are all made under the asumption that the cards you need are still in the deck, but actually you don't know if they are still there or if they were dealt to the rest of the players. So, does that make them just a hope?
This is what I'm thinking lately, and this is the moment where enters the ability to read people, and do or call bluffes.

This is just a thought, what do you think people?. Also my apologies for my english, not my nature language

its really just hope. youre right they may have already been dealt out and plus to me i think a poket pair is the hardest hands to play cause its so limited compared to eve 56 suited

 

[John bruce]

Assuming

The cards are referred to as a single deck..

Once the deck is shuffled, it is set.

Your assuming too much. Only thing it says is that the cards are constantly shuffling. Doesn't say how many decks.

 

[whosdaboss25]

Odds and outs are the chances and maths of pokers. They are the chance you have of completing your draw and getting your hand against your oppo. say you have a flush draw you have 9 outs to that draw or if your drawing to a straight and a flush if it is open ended you have 17 outs if it is a gut shot you have 13 outs those are your odds of hitting the hands yes there is a luck element to it but there is a lot of skill in play as well when your drawing to those hands such as pot control and bet sizing and hopefully you playing in the right position, because playing in position is key or you will be ran over a lot of times if you don't. so good luck at the tables I hope that gives you an example of odds and out.

 

[CallmeFloppy]

The odds are the odds. We can't (or shouldn't) know what cards the other players are dealt. This is why the odds are always calculated by your number of possible outs divided by the number of unknown cards ( the deck - your hole cards and community cards). The only time we can adjust this with certainty is if a card is accidently shown.

This calculation should even out in the long run. Sure, other players could have folded some of the cards you needed and therefore your true odds are less than what you had hoped. But there are other times most or even all your outs are available and your true odds of winning are greater.

 

[AMTTT]

the chances of my 6 outs on the flop, but can not always calculate what cards your opponent all-in on the flop of me)))

 

[Rusel2302]

more of a hope