Odds are really odds? Or just the hope of odds/luck?

fiatdoge

fiatdoge

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Leaving aside the winning odds of AA or KK preflop and the head to head matches, the odds calculation before and after the Flop, the Turn and the River, are all made under the asumption that the cards you need are still in the deck, but actually you don't know if they are still there or if they were dealt to the rest of the players. So, does that make them just a hope?
This is what I'm thinking lately, and this is the moment where enters the ability to read people, and do or call bluffes.

This is just a thought, what do you think people?. Also my apologies for my english, not my nature language
 
MattRyder

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Both, if I understand you correctly. The odds only take into account the cards that the person who is trying to interpret the odds knows about, i.e., the ones in his hand and the ones face up on the table. The rest of the cards 'could' still be in play, which is what the person interpreting the odds is hoping. That's the only way it can work.

However, most of us know that our opponent is most likely holding face cards, AX, suited connectors/gappers or a pair. That knowledge combined with any significant betting allows us to refine the odds quite a bit, to the point where we often do know what our opponent is holding.
 
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Egorov Alex

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in this case, there is only your understanding of the stack drawing. you are playing, gain experience. experience will tell you what to do in a difficult situation. playing you can take into account the chances of finding the cards you need in the deck, without taking into account that they have already thrown off the apponents in the pass. you rely on yourself and your passion, which may not in any bad time to tell you all!
 
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Vlad Savchenko

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That is just the way basic math works.It just doesn`t matter, whether some of your outs are dead. Let me show you a simplified example.


Let`s say you`re playing heads up and there are 10 cards left in the deck and you have 1 chance to draw 1 out.
So your odds are 1\10 * 100% = 10%.


Now let`s calculate it another way.
Since your opponent is holding 2 cards, there is 20% chance that he is holding your out.


So:
1. 20% of the time you are dead. equity = 0%.
2. 80% of the time you are drawing to 1 of 8 cards (remember, your opponent has 2 cards that can`t help you). Equity = 12.5%.


So your equity is: 20% * 0% + 80% * 12.5% = 10%
 
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pokersport88

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Leaving aside the winning odds of AA or KK preflop and the head to head matches, the odds calculation before and after the Flop, the Turn and the River, are all made under the asumption that the cards you need are still in the deck, but actually you don't know if they are still there or if they were dealt to the rest of the players. So, does that make them just a hope?
This is what I'm thinking lately, and this is the moment where enters the ability to read people, and do or call bluffes.

This is just a thought, what do you think people?. Also my apologies for my english, not my nature language
It's a great point whether the card required to win a hand is in the deck or dealt out.

If the required card is still the deck then the calculated odds based on a about 2% per card are valid.

To play a bit saver, you could assume one of the required cards has been dealt out and therefore not in play.

You can then calculate the odds based on the remaining outs.
 
Shrops

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Yes

Yes, that is true. What I do is take a little off for a lost card or two. It seems to work pretty good for me. Good luck !
 
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pokersport88

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how are computer cards Dealt

I was wondering if the computer RNG uses 52 cards like the real deck and therefore once the cards are dealt the order will not change.

Does anyone know or can direct me to a site on card dealing using a RNG.
 
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pokersport88

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thank you for the link but the poker star's site still doesn't tell if they use 52 cards or multiple decks.
 
WabiSabi

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thank you for the link but the poker star's site still doesn't tell if they use 52 cards or multiple decks.

The cards are referred to as a single deck..

Once the deck is shuffled, it is set.
 
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pokersport88

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Yes the answer was the word "deck" which implies 52 cards but I have heard otherwise.
 
acidburnfx

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The quantum world behaves when no one is looking. Maybe, the odds are 50/50 for all of our actions, once that the math is comforting. Without a deep understanding of it, we would probably be extinct by now.
 
AlexStar1981

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Outs and outs to know how many theoretically need to you still have cards in the deck.
The chance and the chance to hope that the theory will coincide with reality!
 
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pokersport88

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thank you for the calculations.

I have always wondered about the chances of winning based on some else holding your outs which of course is always a possibility.
 
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JordieChloe

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They are outs as long as you do not know they are not. The exception would be if you have reason to believe your opponent has some, such as a board with 2 of the same suit as you, no pairs on board, no straight possible. Does he have 2 of the same suit as you? Is his high card higher than yours? Or is he betting 2 pair or a set?
 
Brandlad

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Odds works perfectly in Heads up SNG but in a MTT we need to take at least few cards are out with other players. It gives us the boost to fold out hands and to practice about the pot control.
 
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MerroIlya

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Thank you for the calculations.

Thank you for the calculations. That is very hard work.
 
MatMackenz

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Odds works perfectly in Heads up SNG but in a MTT we need to take at least few cards are out with other players. It gives us the boost to fold out hands and to practice about the pot control.


We cannot just assume that the outs we need are going to be dealt to other players. It makes no difference how many players there is. If your out is at the bottom of the deck or already been dealt makes no difference. The only cards that matter will be the ones left to come.. from the top of the deck. If you dont know its already been dealt or its at bottom of deck, the odds of drawing the out do not change. This is a fallacy and its all in your head if you think more players being dealt in somehow changes the cards that will be dealt on the turn or river.
 
veritasi

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hi, i think it's only odds))there no luck on the distance!
 
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corieaddison

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You are right that it depends on if the cards are still in the deck... but think of this... there are also odds that someone has been dealt one of your outs right... and what are those odds... I think they are the same odds of that card hitting the turn or river (per card)... When calculating odds to hit your hand its around ~2% for each out, but why do you use %2 when the deck after dealt is only 34 cards, its because the you use the percent of the entire deck because that keeps it constant. If you knew how many of your odds were dealt then you could consider the deck to be shorter after being dealt which might give you roughly the same odds either way.

Good Luck!
 
fantata666

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but brothers but not always these big pairs win very often get to rom and do not come the pope :)
 
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djsviga

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LOL odds are based on math buddy, there is no such thing as "odds to hope or luck". Math is a huge thing in this game and every player should know at least a bit of it. GL!
 
Poker_Mike

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Leaving aside the winning odds of AA or KK preflop and the head to head matches, the odds calculation before and after the Flop, the Turn and the River, are all made under the asumption that the cards you need are still in the deck, but actually you don't know if they are still there or if they were dealt to the rest of the players. So, does that make them just a hope?
This is what I'm thinking lately, and this is the moment where enters the ability to read people, and do or call bluffes.

This is just a thought, what do you think people?. Also my apologies for my english, not my nature language


Poker is a game using incomplete information. There are a lot of unknowns.

After the flop is out in holdem, then you know the 3 cards on the flop and the 2 cards in your hole. So 52 cards in the deck minus the 5 cards you know for sure....52-5 = 47

So now the odds of hitting your 4-outer for a gut-shot straight draw is 4 out of 47 instead of 4 out of 52.

Good luck !
 
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