How did you learn to quickly calculate pot odds/equity?

[A9ofHearts]

You might want to check this thread out
https://www.cardschat.com/forum/poker-software-tools-61/#post2068054

 

[JusSumguy]

And by applying this simple algorithm, we learn that the pot odds are...

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[steveiam]

And by applying this simple algorithm, we learn that the pot odds are...

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Very Good,but i think there is a error in line 4..lol

 

[Chronical23]

kudos to the poster. This subject is a great lesson better taught early on

 

[RickAversion]

This thread makes a LOT more sense when I came back to revisit today.

Bottom line:

Pot equity = Rule of 2s and 4s.
pot odds = Call amount / Total pot including my call.

 

[jhonihgrass]

The simplest is to think about the following, it will be worth me paying a bet of $1500, to try to win a pot with $300?

 

[kevbot]

I count my outs (8 outs for a straight, 9 for flush) and multiply by 2 if there is only 1 card to come or 4 if there are 2 cards to come. You come up with a pretty good estimate on your % chance to hit.

If you want to get even more fancy, think about the potential chips that you will win if you do hit and calculate that into your pot odds.

 

[JusSumguy]

The simplest is to think about the following, it will be worth me paying a bet of $1500, to try to win a pot with $300?

lol

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[Flsnookman]

Dont forget, there are also implied odds.....ie can I get your entire stack if I hit my draw. There are also other things to consider, in mtts do I need to double up to itm soon (20 bbs or less) am i pot commited if i call? If so maybe i should shove instead. Am i actually ahead vs a maniac with my ace high? Anyways im rambling, the rule of 4 and 2 is a good one. Good luck.

 

[jcdagenius]

i always do the math in my head....try to keep it simple....just knowing stack sizes and whats total pot and outs for me and villian

 

[RickAversion]

Here is another situation:
2009 wsop
At the 8 min mark.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzP2BzYPHI4

Cada raises 4.4m
Pot is now 7.7m
Ivey 4.3m to call

Announcer says "Ivey getting almost 2:1. Time to gamble"
Implying Ivey is getting very good pot odds.
I only learned how to compare pot odds PERCENT to pot equity PERCENT.

What is the logic here?
When is 2:1 good odds?
When your pot equity is bigger than 2:1?
How do you calculate that?

All I know how to do is this:
Cada raises 4.4m
Pot is now 7.7m
Ivey 4.4m to call

Pot odds = call amount / (current pot + call amount)
So, pot odds for Ivey = 4.4 / (7.7 + 4.4) = 4.4/12 = 37%
All I know is if Ivey feels like he's got more than 37% pot equity, he should call.
Screen says Ivey's pot equity is 46%, so he is getting a cheap pot odds, and should call.

But, what calculation or rule is the announcer using with the 2:1 odds?
How does 37% pot odds translate to "getting 2:1 odds"?

 

[Loonbat]

Here is another situation:
2009 WSOP
At the 8 min mark.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzP2BzYPHI4

Cada raises 4.4m
Pot is now 7.7m
Ivey 4.3m to call

Announcer says "Ivey getting almost 2:1. Time to gamble"
Implying Ivey is getting very good pot odds.
I only learned how to compare pot odds PERCENT to pot equity PERCENT.

What is the logic here?
When is 2:1 good odds?
When your pot equity is bigger than 2:1?
How do you calculate that?

All I know how to do is this:
Cada raises 4.4m
Pot is now 7.7m
Ivey 4.4m to call

Pot odds = call amount / (current pot + call amount)
So, pot odds for Ivey = 4.4 / (7.7 + 4.4) = 4.4/12 = 37%
All I know is if Ivey feels like he's got more than 37% pot equity, he should call.
Screen says Ivey's pot equity is 46%, so he is getting a cheap pot odds, and should call.

But, what calculation or rule is the announcer using with the 2:1 odds?
How does 37% pot odds translate to "getting 2:1 odds"?

Think of the 2:1 odds as parts of a whole, with 3 parts total in this case. Thus, if you equate this to percentages, 2:1 is approximately 66.6% - 33.3%. If your equity in the hand is greater than 33.3%, a call has a positive expected value in the long-term.

This does not necessarily make it a "good call" as such concepts as tournament life and playable stack sizes come into play. A situation with a longterm +EV doesn't necessarily mean it is the right decision, excpet for in the strictest mathematical terms.

 

[RickAversion]

Ok, here is another one:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upkSQ3Bth8Q&t=32m

Initial post is 3100
The raise is 800
Pot is now 3900

Tran calls.
The pot odds = Call / (Pot + Call) = 800/3900 = 20%
(Announcer says Tran is getting 4:1 odds on the call)

How many outs does Tran have?
Tran needs a 9 for the straight.
I guess pairing his 8 or 7 also counts in heads up?
So, a total of 12 outs? Rule of 2/4 means odds of hitting are 24%/48%
Both are much higher than the pot odds of 20%
So, he calls. Right?
If you only count the 9 as the only out, it's 8%/12% pot equity for Tran.

PS: Stupid call by Mortensen.

 

[DrazaFFT]

at this case above, could 4 and 5 count as a half outs for a back door straight so he can have additional 4 outs (8 cards counted as a .5 out each) and 8 outs total? or i got something wrong???

so in this case with the logic i tired he have 32% 2.21:1 odds to hit and 4:1 to call, easy call if i put it right...

agree about stupid call by mortensen

 

[IPlay]

You should be practicing your math and situations off the table. Maybe even more so than at the table if you are new.

 

[RickAversion]

Actually, it says Tran has 34% pot equity. How is that? It must be including 7 and 8 for the pair that would win if opponent doesn't pair his A9.
So, Tran has 3 outs: 7 8 9 (10 outs), which gives 20%/40% which is closer to the 34% being displayed.

 

[DrazaFFT]

I actually think that 34% is because using rule of two and four is not 100% accurate, especially when it comes to backdoor outs...

Sent from my HTC Desire X using Tapatalk

 

[blakewyte]

Just to ask, if there is a straight draw and flush draw, do you count the outs separately and then add them out together? This is the part that I get confused.

For example:

Me: 8d7d

Flop: 6h Kd 9d

Based on what I've read from this thread I should calculate it like this:

52 - 2 (my cards) - 3 (flop) = 47 unseen cards

To hit a straight: 8*2 = 16%
To hit a flush: 9*2 = 16%

Do I add these up together? Or are they separate because they are outs for separate things?

Sorry if I'm sounding like an idiot but the concept of calculating has always been lost on me. I'm really honestly math illiterate.

 

[DrazaFFT]

you should use this concept to calculate it it is not 100% accurate but it is close enough.

You have straight and flush draw, there are 8 cards that will complete open ended straight draw and they are all tens and all fives which is 8 out as you already get, now, 9 additional card gives you a flush but two of those you already included as outs and they are Td and 5d so your flush draw give you 7 additional outs which makes 15 outs and following the rule of 4 15x4 makes roughly 60% that your hand will improve on next two streets or by following rule of two 15x2 with roughly 30% that your hand will improve at next street.

Now little closer calculation says, but im not 100% sure, that rule of 4 doesn't give you the accurate results when there is more than 9 outs you need to take out one percent per one additional out over 9 so in this case it would be 60% - (15-9) = 60-6 = 54%

hope this helps

 

[awmm1983]

count your outs. ie, open endedstraight draw , 8 outs. Use rule of 4 and 2. 8 x 4 = 32 . This is your equity. 32% Miss on turn. divide by 2. 16 % equity. I hope this helps.

 

[awmm1983]

Just to ask, if there is a straight draw and flush draw, do you count the outs separately and then add them out together? This is the part that I get confused.

For example:

Me: 8d7d

Flop: 6h Kd 9d

Based on what I've read from this thread I should calculate it like this:

52 - 2 (my cards) - 3 (flop) = 47 unseen cards

To hit a straight: 8*2 = 16%
To hit a flush: 9*2 = 16%

Do I add these up together? Or are they separate because they are outs for separate things?

Sorry if I'm sounding like an idiot but the concept of calculating has always been lost on me. I'm really honestly math illiterate.

Flush oes draw you have 15 outs. That's roughly 45% equity. It's a monster . If you have a straight and flush draw, you shove. If you have a flush draw and 2 over cards , you shove. Sometimes i may even shove a gutshot flush draw. Get it all in

 

[DrazaFFT]

Flush oes draw you have 15 outs. That's roughly 45% equity. It's a monster . If you have a straight and flush draw, you shove. If you have a flush draw and 2 over cards , you shove. Sometimes i may even shove a gutshot flush draw. Get it all in

how does oesd&fd have 45% equity?? you have 45% with the flushdraw and gutshot if that is what you meant by gutshot flush draw, you have 9 outs to flush and 4 outs to gutshot minus one out that completes both gutshot and flush so it is 12 outs 12x4=48%; 48-(12-9)=45

I see the showing logic because the fold equity in tournaments but with monster hand like that you want to gain as much value you can with monster like that and shoving doesnt help it, but this is completely different topic that this one....

count your outs. ie, open endedstraight draw , 8 outs. Use rule of 4 and 2. 8 x 4 = 32 . This is your equity. 32% Miss on turn. divide by 2. 16 % equity. I hope this helps.

he didnt asked that he asked about oesd and flush draw at the same hand...

 

[awmm1983]

how does oesd&fd have 45% equity?? you have 45% with the flushdraw and gutshot if that is what you meant by gutshot flush draw, you have 9 outs to flush and 4 outs to gutshot minus one out that completes both gutshot and flush so it is 12 outs 12x4=48%; 48-(12-9)=45

I see the showing logic because the fold equity in tournaments but with monster hand like that you want to gain as much value you can with monster like that and shoving doesnt help it, but this is completely different topic that this one....



Also He asked that he asked about oesd and flush draw at the same hand...

Yes i messed that up. I'm a twit. Just under 60% equity. Playing and chatting mixes my brain up.
However he did ask how people work out equity. So i told him.

 

[DrazaFFT]

I said roughly 45%.With discounted outs that a fair estimate.
He asked how people work out equity. So i told him. Jings. Don't worry. Next time i'll run it past you first.

Have i hurt your feelings? First, what you have told him wasn't the answer to his question, second when you have talked the equity it wasn't correct, at least imo so i thought that if i respond with my logic you can explained your logic and calculation so if i was wrong i could learn, im here to discuss poker and learn and if i can to help someone.
If you are offended by my previous post, sorry. If you accept it we can discuss odds, outs, equity anything, if not, i can't really care less so it is up to you...

 

[blakewyte]

Thanks a lot for the help guys and peace! I really appreciate everyone's help in trying to explain and show me how to calculated the outs as well as the equity.