You need to be in the top 25% to get past rake to become a winner in the long run. You are always playing against some players that have played daily for a decade. You're far behind.
Your answer only applies to cash game players. The 'average' player might be able to min cash in tourneys on a semi-consistent basis - which is basically earning back your buyin x2 and covering tourney 'rake'.
However the 'average' players aren't making final table in tourneys consistently, therefore they will only ever be break even or be a marginal winner at best. Yes the average player (recreational who plays on occasion) might stumble into a day when luck is on his side - and he's hitting all the flops and getting strong premium hands, and he wins a tourney. But this is not a consistent result for the average player.
To be a winning tourney player - we must study, apply, and put in volume, and the results will be more final tables, and more top 3 finishes.
I think you mean an average player cant win in the long run. Any person average, below or above, Can win. Thats the beauty of Poker. But The average player cant win in the higher up levels in the long run thats for sure. Obviously because he doesnt have the drive to study and learn. All it takes is a little thought and experience and anyONE can win. Its up to the person whether or not Your a winning player.
I really like your answer.
I was picturing Lex Veldhuis vs the average person. Heck lets put 7 average players on a table vs 3 pros, Lex, Boski and Loncar. They play 10 SnG type games of holdem.
The pros are going to win no less than 7 out of 10 of those games. I'd say if there were only 2 pros on the table - they'd likely win 7/10.