I hear many times that an average person can not win at poker in the long run. Why?

A very simple answer would be the house rake - if the house takes 5-10% of the pot, that means the average player will not be winning, they'll be break even against the field and losing to the house. A player has to be very good to beat both the field and the rake, and often that's beyond the average person.

Obviously not in all circumstances though, a microstakes table late Saturday night (western european time) should be beatable for an average person following straightforward but robust strategies.

There is a significant learning curve - it is hard to play winning poker without a serious time investment... learning and practicing, developing discipline, learning how to size bets effectively, developing an understanding of your opponents' tendencies and how to adjust to them.

Obviously this is just the beginning, there are so many poker concepts you must learn to be successful (some of which can only be learned by losing initially), but these are just a few examples of why it is so challenging to win.

Meanwhile poker can be extremely frustrating for new players who think they've got it all figured out, but in reality they are just scratching the surface. It is very common for people to think they're much better than they are, mainly because they aren't even aware of the things they don't know.

A good example:

There are people on here who post about watching hands for a day or a week and deciding that a site is not random because they lost or saw someone make quads four times. "I got dealt seven deuce off-suit three hands in a row, never playing there again!"

Well people's brains are hard-wired to see patterns even if they aren't really there (think Jesus in a slice of toast or shadows forming a face).

In reality there are 52! (factorial, 52*51*50*49 etc.) ways to arrange a deck of cards, which is a number with 68 zeroes, so they can watch hands play out for years and years and see the exact same combinations rarely if ever.

If it's all the same to you and you think only in the short-term, this still won't stop you from thinking it's not something you're doing wrong, it's something wrong with the cards.

Good luck!

You have to be aware that you have to play so many games that most players just don,t have the time for all the up and down swings in poker.

Average skill and average luck isn't gonna put u on the top of the leader board

Originally Posted by Oxinthewater

A very simple answer would be the house rake - if the house takes 5-10% of the pot, that means the average player will not be winning, they'll be break even against the field and losing to the house. A player has to be very good to beat both the field and the rake, and often that's beyond the average person.

Obviously not in all circumstances though, a microstakes table late Saturday night (western european time) should be beatable for an average person following straightforward but robust strategies.

A very good point.

Originally Posted by DougPkrMonsta

There is a significant learning curve - it is hard to play winning poker without a serious time investment... learning and practicing, developing discipline, learning how to size bets effectively, developing an understanding of your opponents' tendencies and how to adjust to them.

Obviously this is just the beginning, there are so many poker concepts you must learn to be successful (some of which can only be learned by losing initially), but these are just a few examples of why it is so challenging to win.

Meanwhile poker can be extremely frustrating for new players who think they've got it all figured out, but in reality they are just scratching the surface. It is very common for people to think they're much better than they are, mainly because they aren't even aware of the things they don't know.

A good example:

There are people on here who post about watching hands for a day or a week and deciding that a site is not random because they lost or saw someone make quads four times. "I got dealt seven deuce off-suit three hands in a row, never playing there again!"

Well people's brains are hard-wired to see patterns even if they aren't really there (think Jesus in a slice of toast or shadows forming a face).

In reality there are 52! (factorial, 52*51*50*49 etc.) ways to arrange a deck of cards, which is a number with 68 zeroes, so they can watch hands play out for years and years and see the exact same combinations rarely if ever.

If it's all the same to you and you think only in the short-term, this still won't stop you from thinking it's not something you're doing wrong, it's something wrong with the cards.

Good luck!

You are right. On the surface actually no limit holdem seems very simple game getting 2 cards and making 5 cards with the help of 5 community cards. Even a 7 year old can play it once he knows the rules. But most of the people do not realize the bottom of the iceberg which is hard work, emotional mastery and discipline.

I've been playing a long time and want people to consider this, only 5% of online poker players are profitable.

Originally Posted by B1731898

I've been playing a long time and want people to consider this, only 5% of online poker players are profitable.

How can we get into that 5%?

No I do not agree, once there is a probability of winning one major tournament.

Originally Posted by arenaci

How can we get into that 5%?

I'm by far a pro, but I have been profitable for years. My advice to those that want to be in the black, keep trying to improve constantly. Try to more patient and even keeled with the disappointing bad beats, and frustrating losses where you should have won. And just like I saw in a commercial once, patience and well-timed aggression. Oh btw, fold, fold, and fold.

If YOU dont play whit regulariti your Chanses are limited to win substantialy. Just an opinion

I would say the biggest block I have seen in players in either hard headedness / refusing to learn or a lack of patience. Both are kind of the death nail for poker. With some will power and enough time I think anyone could break those bad habits

In poker, like any profession, you need talent to become a professional. Each person has the ability for a certain type of activity, you cannot be a professional in everything.

Originally Posted by B1731898

I've been playing a long time and want people to consider this, only 5% of online poker players are profitable.

lol, so i'm into that 5%. i don't earn a lot of money, but profitable means winning more that losing. i never lose money in poker.

I think everything is relative. Even a beginner can win if he is lucky. But in order to win money regularly, you have to be a sufficiently qualified and experienced player.

Because they are average players. Including myself.

Because they are average and play average. To win over the long haul you need to really learn and step up your game. I know, I am an average player and believe me I am tying to step up my game. Easier said then done.

The average player can get lucky at the start of their amateur marathon. For a good result, you need to constantly play and analyze your game. I watched the statistics of the pros from about a hundred MTT games. Bottom line, about seven percent of the ITM hit and three percent of the seven is the final table.

Originally Posted by arenaci

I hear many times that an average person can not win at poker in the long run. Why?

You need to be in the top 25% to get past rake to become a winner in the long run. You are always playing against some players that have played daily for a decade. You're far behind.

Probably because players who play poker for fun have to pay for it from time to time. Therefore, I believe that players who play for fun, in the long run and at best, lose nothing and win nothing.

An average person, could have the enthusiasm to do the long run, but his willingness to learn will be very less. What defines as an average person is his desire to earn, than learn. What happens in poker is it may take even a couple months without significant winnings to show up. So he may get tilted and eventually quit poker. Instead, realise it's a learning curve. The wil of not giving up, and understanding intermediate and advanced lessons of poker helps.

10% to 15% of tournament players at micro stakes are profitable or go break even. Which means at least 80% are losers in the long run.
Recreational casino players who play any game for fun can be really bad at poker.

That's why it's still profitable for us poker players who take it more serious, and have the time and patience.

First let's say there was no rake. For every winning professional who makes a living, there have to be enough losing players to pay their salary. The losing players work for a living, play part time and (hopefully) only lose a portion of their salary. So it takes a handful of losing players to pay the salary of the professional.

So in other words, even if there was no rake, I think most players would be losers. But also since poker is a zero sum game the average profit of all the players would be zero. Another was to say that is that the median player would be a net loser and the average would be break even.

But there is rake and its pretty high at lower stakes. So in the real world with rake you get even more net losers.

Well, because it is a negative sum game. This factor alone predetermines that the average guy even can't get even, not to speak of winning money. Well, WINNING is another thing. By definition average guys do not win, only the winners, the very few at the top, are winners.

They say that from 75 to 85 percent of players are not breaking even. Nice thing about forum tournaments with free rolls and overlays, this can help with keeping a bankroll healthy.

All you can do is keep learning. Learning poker is a lifetime process. It keeps changing all the time. It's a non-stop evolution. Just compare the early 2000s poker to what the game has become now. So if you just play and never study, don't expect to ever become an above average player, let alone a winning one.

It very much depend on what you consider as average person. Poker game is constantly evolving and general skill level of the players increases so the only way to be winning player is to constantly improve your skills. If you play poker game here and there without trying to learn something new you will definitely not be winning player so if this is what you consider as average player i completely agree. There are players though who do not play professional, have normal job and still earn some additional money which help their budget from poker. I will be happy if some day i am one of these average players.

people think is only luck, but, even if you studied poker is so dificult to win, when, when you dont study is more dificult

You need to understand the game in order to win it a simple person in the sense of far from poker of course will not win.

An ordinary person can't be able to win the poker excessively.

I think the reason the average player is not a winning player is in large part due to inexperience. But obviously their are a variety of factors in addition to that. If the average player doesn't take time to study/analyze hands, does not play very often, they will be several notches below those that do study and play a lot. I also think the average player just likes to play, and is not looking to earn a living playing poker.

Well, it is a very logical explanation since it does not have much training of concentration and hands which could be drawn in a normal game but in the same way there is the possibility that if they can win but in a million because there is always probabilities

Originally Posted by arenaci

I hear many times that an average person can not win at poker in the long run. Why?

I think you mean an average player cant win in the long run. Any person average, below or above, Can win. Thats the beauty of Poker. But The average player cant win in the higher up levels in the long run thats for sure. Obviously because he doesnt have the drive to study and learn. All it takes is a little thought and experience and anyONE can win. Its up to the person whether or not Your a winning player.

Technically the average person playing against other average people will lose to rake.
But when the "average person" plays against those worse than them, they will win.
Ego poker 'e go broke

Win and lose is 50% for each by mathematical theory.

Average person can't excess this theory, only those aggressive person use their skills to risk then win excess profit.

I am a average poker player and I have won plenty as an aggresive player. You have to take chances in life as in poker so win or lose keep at it and chances are you will win your share. Capo1014

Well, if ten average players sit down in a poker room in a casino, after the rake all ten could lose. Also, suppose ten poker players get checks at the beginning of the month and play lots of poker. First the below average four lose all their money. Now the competition is tougher and the average guys are below average in that little pool. If its a small town they might only play with each other, but even if its not, below average players either lose all their money or get frustrated, others continue playing, making it a tough row to hoe all over.

Why can't it? Every player can win in poker.The only question is, first of all, luck. Many simply do not have it. And the second most important thing is that many are afraid of losing. Therefore, they do not risk, while losing the opportunity to be closer to victory. After all, there is no such player who does not alternate between winnings and losses. Probably you need to learn a lot to control your losses and losses, and not just strive to win. Perhaps someone does not agree with me. I'm ready to listen.

The average person dont know what is GTO and have no clue to press fold or call under different circumstances

"hard work, emotional mastery and discipline"

You said it, these are base requirements for success in the game, and the average person probably won't be inclined to learn or apply any of these things, on average...

Because without experience, he will perform random actions both in the game and with regards to the bankroll

It will be his turn ...

The short answer is: If the great players are getting a lot of profit, the good players are getting some profit, the house is getting profit, someone must be losing money

The long answer is: You need skill to read the table, to come up with a strategy, to know your chances, to lure your oponents in making mistakes. That's not for everybody

Originally Posted by yoshi352000

You need to be in the top 25% to get past rake to become a winner in the long run. You are always playing against some players that have played daily for a decade. You're far behind.

Your answer only applies to cash game players. The 'average' player might be able to min cash in tourneys on a semi-consistent basis - which is basically earning back your buyin x2 and covering tourney 'rake'.
However the 'average' players aren't making final table in tourneys consistently, therefore they will only ever be break even or be a marginal winner at best. Yes the average player (recreational who plays on occasion) might stumble into a day when luck is on his side - and he's hitting all the flops and getting strong premium hands, and he wins a tourney. But this is not a consistent result for the average player.
To be a winning tourney player - we must study, apply, and put in volume, and the results will be more final tables, and more top 3 finishes.

Originally Posted by eagleaces

I think you mean an average player cant win in the long run. Any person average, below or above, Can win. Thats the beauty of Poker. But The average player cant win in the higher up levels in the long run thats for sure. Obviously because he doesnt have the drive to study and learn. All it takes is a little thought and experience and anyONE can win. Its up to the person whether or not Your a winning player.

I really like your answer.

I was picturing Lex Veldhuis vs the average person. Heck lets put 7 average players on a table vs 3 pros, Lex, Boski and Loncar. They play 10 SnG type games of holdem.
The pros are going to win no less than 7 out of 10 of those games. I'd say if there were only 2 pros on the table - they'd likely win 7/10.

Life poker freeroll

I think picking your opponents is really important. One of the most helpful thing I learned from the CardsChat 30 days poker course is that you could be a great player top 5% world ranking but still be a losing player if you constantly pick to play people better than you.

I forgot his name but the pro player they used as an example is 20 million USD in debt because he chooses to play against the few who are better than him. That is just crazy to think about. Playing in your own league while always trying to improve is best I think.

Originally Posted by Daddysprincess99

I forgot his name but the pro player they used as an example is 20 million USD in debt because he chooses to play against the few who are better than him. That is just crazy to think about. Playing in your own league while always trying to improve is best I think.

Probably not the player they talked about - but it could be Mike Matusow. He fits the bill.

The more patience you have, the more you will get.

The average person plays terrible poker especially at lower stakes they would make plays they wouldn't at higher stakes..