When they tell you its gambling, explain it like this.

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Michael Paler

Michael Paler

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Its a skilled game, but, with a small amount of luck. To win you have to know when to hold em and also when to fold em.

You got it! There is a small amount of luck in just about every endeavour. gambling is all luck. No skill in picking random numbers or the spin of a wheel. If there were, vegas would go broke. Thus my accurate conclusions that poker is not gambling!

I live in California. Gambling is illegal, yet there are card rooms all over the place. That is why.
 
wydejim

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poker is a game of skill not just luck.
it takes both luck and skill.
without skill you have no luck.
 
Michael Paler

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poker is a game of skill not just luck.
it takes both luck and skill.
without skill you have no luck.

I wholeheartedly agree. You make your own "luck" when skill is involved. The more people we can make understand this, the better off all poker players will be.

I despise being lumped in with craps and roulette players. It is not right nor are they the same type of games. That really is gambling.
 
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WhineyLobster

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Why not quote my post explaining where you are clearly wrong and type in where you think that I am wrong and why. Because you are so far off as to not be believed.

1st Argument: "A rose by any other name..."
Argument: you are "betting" for cash, therefore it is gambling.

The way I read this argument, you are simply saying that since "no set amount of any bet or wager towards the final outcome is ever [always] made" that therefor it is not gambling. You make the argument by not-so-cleverly replacing the word "wager" with "wager-move" "But it is a wager-move. Not a wager." You continue that "Thus there never is a set amount of any wager towards the outcome. A bet or wager of a set amount made on the overall outcome outside the game is gambling. You are betting on the outcome, thus gambling." So it appears that your definition of gambling, at least in this argument, is determined by whether the bets are made on some outcome. But what do you mean by outcome? Certainly, the general consensus of poker players is that the "outcome" is the end of each hand. Each hand in poker is a completely separate game that is played between all the players. Thus, by betting to try to win that hand...you are betting on the outcome of that hand.

And as you admit... betting on the outcome is gambling. This should be very clear in regards to cash games but what about tournaments? I agree that in a tournament, the main outcome is of course where you place in the tournament but with regards to the cards and the game of poker, the outcome is still the outcome of each hand. A tournament can be thought of as a collection of poker games, similar to a bracketed basketball league. Although the final outcome matters, certainly each individual game (or poker hand) also has an outcome. It is these cummulative outcomes which determine the winners and losers in the tournament.

The argument also seems to be saying that since the betting is in stages and multiple bets can be made on any given hand, that it therefore MUST NOT be betting on the outcome. This is flawed. No matter what bets are made...there is always an outcome to the hand. All in preflop and everyone folds...the outcome is that you win. All in preflop with one caller and you see all the cards... the outcome is determined by who has the best hand. Even if you check your BB all the way to river and win the hand....there is still an outcome. Also, the outcome of the hand IS ALWAYS preceded by SOME BET. No matter where the hand ends...there is a bet or call (which is a bet) that preceeds it. Thus, every outcome of a hand is the result of betting. (not that the hands are determined by the betting, just that it is IMPOSSIBLE to have a hand in poker where there is an outcome and no betting.) Your argument here just tries to redefine the outcome as the end of a tourny rather than each individual hand. But even if you assume the end of the tournament is the only outcome....THAT OUTCOME TOO IS PRECEEDED BY A BET/CALL. So even if every hand in the tournament is not part of the outcome, 1 hand (the very last hand) MUST be the outcome of the tournament and if this hand is gambling...then poker is gambling.

It should also be said that your theory that betting in stages somehow makes it not gambling is flawed in that there are several other casino games which are gambling and involve betting in stages. First, blackjack....there is not only one bet in blackjack. You can double down. Tricard poker...another game where there are multiple betting opportunities throughout the hand.

These are just two examples...there are plenty more.

Conclusion: Changing the word wager to wager-move and applying your own arbitrary definition of what a wager-move is does not change what is really happening. You are betting on the outcome of an individual hand.

Next you claim that chips have no monetary value and are just place-holders essentially for your wager-moves. This too, is flawed. First, certainly in cash-games chips have monetary value. When you buy in there is a direct relationship between the money you pay and the chips you receive. Similarly, when you cash-out there is (hopefully) the exact same relationship when you
exchange your chips for money. Therefore, in cash games, chips DO have monetary value. You even admit that this is true:

you can buy into a cash game for $300.00 and get $300.00 in chips to wager-move with.

As for tournament chips, your initial buyin may or may not represent the amount of chips you have at any given time, you are right. However, similar to cash games, there is a direct relationship to the number of chips you receive at the beginning of the tournament and the tournament buyin. Simply because they arent 1:1 ($300 for 300 chips) does not mean they dont have the some value.

Argument 2: "There is no chance in poker...lols"
Argument: it is just "luck." Luck = gambling.

Your argument here seems to be that since SOME amount of skill is involved in poker, that luck isnt involved in poker at all. This, again is flawed. Although skills such as"using the odds of probability, knowing your opponent, what he might do in a certain situation" may make you a more profitable poker player, these skills DO NOT eliminate the element of chance that is involved in poker. While I do agree that skill can play a significant role in poker, it cannot be said that chance is completely eliminated from the game. Despite your skillful play,
you can still lose. Luck is a part of poker. Simply because you are applying the odds and probability does not mean there is no chance. In fact the opposite must be true..if you are applying the odds and probabilities there MUST be some sort of chance. Again, I will use the examples of many other games of chance which are considerd obviously gambling. You can certainly
play blackjack knowing the probabilities of which cards will fall. You can play roulette knowing the probabilities of where the ball will land. In fact, EVERY GAME of chance involves these types of calculations and any player can become skillful at those games. But in the end, all of those, just like poker, are games of chance. The fact that you are calculating the probability of unknowns obviously means its a game of chance.

For instance, if you play a hand face up lets say and you have AcAs and your opponent has 7c2s. Since its faceup, everyone has ALL the information...but do they? 72 goes all in...certainly the best, and only, play here is to call. But even if you call...make the right call...there is still a (roughly) 10% that 72 will win. Although its face up, neither player has all the information. Poker is a game of incomplete information even if you play with the cards face up...because the cards on the board (or whatevers left) are YET TO BE DETERMINED.

You also state that since you had at least some idea of the probabilities that the outcome is therefore not luck. This is not true. Although you may be able to PREDICT an outcome...that outcome is not determined by your prediction...it is determined by something independent from the players..the random order of the deck. You even hint at admitting this:

Of course you can simply luck out with them, yet you are defying the odds when you do."

Defyin the odds = luck.

"If you succeed after applying the odds of probability that is not just random luck as it was calculated. So even if you do throw your money in with no thought as to how or why and you win, those same odds can explain why you won."

"If you succeed after applying the odds of probability that is not just random luck as it was calculated."

Knowing WHY you won and knowing THAT you will win are two different things. Notwithstanding playing perfect poker that always conforms to the most positive EV play, there are still times when a negative EV play or really just a horrible play can win...even against a player who made the best play. (see AA vs 72 above). When 72 wins, the odds dont explain that playing 72 was the "right" move...in fact the odds dictate that it was a horrible move (assuming hes not getting 10:1 on his money). But in the end, 10% of the time the bad play will win out. This can go the other way too, you can make all the right moves and in the end it may be YOU who gets lucky.

Playing AA vs 72 face up again...but this time with a flop of 772 and a turn of K. Whats the play here? You have 2 outs and roughly a 4% chance of winning. Certainly the best play is not to bet and fold the hand, but lets say that you dont and BOOM miracle A on the river. You win, but not because you made the right move but because you got lucky. Simply because the outcome worked out for you does not mean that your play on the turn was correct...it means, quite simply, you sucked out.

You are actually no more "lucky" when an ace hits and "saves" you than you are "lucky" when a chess player fails to move a pawn that prevents his knight from moving onto that square and then that fails to prevent your attack.

The distinction here, as I outlined above, is that one is dependent on a PLAYER's action and the other (poker) is independent of the player and is based on the randomized deck order. This is outside the players control and therefore is a SIGNIFICANT difference.


Comparison to Chess: As many have said before, your comparison to chess is...well, weak. Chess is completely different from poker. Chess is NOT a game of chance. Everything that happens in chess is determined COMPLETELY by the players. Poker, on the other hand, involves not only the
players but the deck and the cards that may or may not come. You say that the probabilities of a chess player making a certain move are the analogous to poker but they are not. In poker, although you can think about the probability of a player making a particular move, the outcome (at least in those hands that end in a showdown) is still determined by the cards that come or do not come...by chance. You may use skill to IMPROVE your odds of having the winning hand but in the end the cards determine the winner...not your plays. As I said above, poker is a game of incomplete information while chess is a game where the players have ALL THE INFORMATION. There is nothing in chess that is a mystery or determined outside the players' control...each player at any given point has ALL the information that any other player has about the board. In poker, although the players may have all the same information (like in the example above where the hand is played face up) there is still MISSING INFORMATION concerning the cards that have not come yet.

Conclusion: Although I agree that skill can play a large role in poker, chance is NOT completely eliminated. Therefore, poker is still a game of chance. Simply because you can predict what will happen does not mean your prediction will occur. Even if you make the right play, you can still lose. Even if you make the wrong play, you can still win.


Argument 2...part 2

"I do not believe it is gambling since you can control the majority of it."

"In order for it to be gambling, poker would have to be just that; a crapshoot."

Here again, you seem to be arguing that since poker can be composed of SOME skill, that therefore there is NO CHANCE or luck at all. This is a misconception. A game of skill and a game of chance are not mutually exclusive. A game of chance may have skills which can improve your odds but the game is still a game of chance. Simply because there is skill involved does not eliminate all chance involved. IN fact, a significant part of the skill in poker is calculating the CHANCE that certain cards will come. There are plenty of "gambling" games that can be skill based yet are still considered gambling. Sports betting is a game where skill can be a big factor but in the end, its still a game of chance (sports betting that is, not necessarily the sport).

And in no game do you have absolute control over the outcome. Does that mean that every game you play is gambling?

It is not whether you personally have control over the outcome but whether the players as a collective have complete control over the outcome. Lets take your example, chess. In chess the entire game is completely controlled by the two players. There is no other involvement by any independent mechanism. Poker, however, does have an independent mechanism that does not allow the players to have complete control over the outcome. Even when played face up, the players have, to some degree, less than absolute control over the outcome. The outcome is determined in part by the players plays and in part by the cards. Since the cards are organized in a random manner, chance is involved and therefore the outcome is at least in part controlled by chance.

the unexpected can always happen. If you want to consider that bad or good luck, fine. I cannot argue it being called that in that example. But that is nowhere near the majority of the game.

Certainly not enough that it is "gambling".

Again, gambling is betting money on a game of chance. You agree that chance is at least some part of the game. To be gambling this chance must be something that is completely outside the player's control. Unlike in chess where if you get unlucky because of player's move which is entirely WITHIN the players' control.

And that luck you do see often is not luck at all. You can go back and look up the math, the odds explain what happened and why.

This quote doesnt even make sense. Let me show you why. Again lets take the AA vs 72 with 772K board. Your odds of winning are 4%... you call and lose. You look back and see wow my odds were 4%, this explains why I lost. Next hand...exact same thing: AA vs 72 with 772K flop...despite what you learned before you call again... and BOOM, A on the river. You go back and look and the odds STILL SAY 4%!! How can the odds explain what happened and why in the first hand and ALSO explain what happened in the second hand? They cant because probabilities do not EXPLAIN why something happens...it only predicts the chane that a particular event will occur. Every move is like this because every move (assuming you dont have the stone cold nuts prior to river) can have two outcomes...one probability cannot explain both outcomes similarly.

Conclusion: Since chance is involved (however small) and the players as a whole do not have complete control over the game, poker is a game of chance. Simply because you control the majority of it does not mean it is not gambling. If any chance is involved, and chance is certainly not an insignificant part of poker, then the game is a game of chance and betting money on it would make it gambling.


Argument 4 - "The Secret"

Also, IMO, if you just keep it in your head that poker is heavily weighted towards "luck" you will not be nearly as successful as you would if you believe that it is heavily weighted towards skill and proper use of the odds (pot, hand, probability). This is a clear "glass half empty" vs "glass half full" issue; If you always see it as half empty, this affects you in a negative way. If you see it as half full, this affects you in a positive way. This is partially how our brain works. It finds reasons to justify your beliefs.

If you are always convinced the fish will suck out on you, then they will. Once I realized that, I was able to find ways to defeat them being so weak and obvious. Sure, they still "suck out" on me, but far less.

They wrote a book on this decades ago. Its called the law of attraction. However, it is merely a self-help fiction that, granted may have application to one's dating life or self-esteem, has absolutely NO EFFECT on poker probabilities whatsoever. Although it may APPEAR to you that your belief that you are better or that an opponent will suck out on you has an effect on the chance of cards coming...it does not. It may have an affect on your play, but it does NOT affect the independent chance of the randomized deck.


I challenge you to back that up with more than just your opinion. Prove me wrong, if you can. Since I am using math, this should be easy.I have proved my thesis.


Finally... lets address just the absurdity of your posts in general. The first thing should be obvious...where is your math? Where is your proof? Do you understand what a proof is? Not a single argument you presented used math at all! In fact, the majority of your argument is based entirely on changing the definitions of terms to suit your argument. It seems very counter intuitive that to prove that poker is not within the definition of gambling you change the definitions of all the vocabulary of poker. But you were right that it was easy... that should have been obvious from the countless people before me who told you that you were wrong.

But lets not stop there...you also decided to attack me. Lets address that.

"Maybe you are taking that cheap shot because the math and the proof are over your head. So do

not assume I have a gambling problem because of your ignorance of this topic."

Again, what math? What proof? Maybe it is over my head because I didnt see a single math equation or proof of anything. I am not assuming you have a gambling problem at all...I merely suggested that that may be a reason why someone would come up with arguments why poker is not gambling. However, based upon your vitriolic reaction to it.... you know. =/

And come on...name calling? Seriously? How old are we. You claim Im a troll (and thats not the worst name you called me)...and by definition maybe I am. Meaning I didnt intend to troll you but you sure had a very negative reaction to my comments, you seemed to be very agitated by them and even cried to anyone who would listen...even though those people explained to you that...well, they didnt agree with you that I was trolling. I guess 'troll' is just another word that you only possess a weak-tight understanding of...

I'll end with wise words to describe your arguments:

"Maybe you need to accept you do not know how to back up what youre saying with anything other than a cowards unsubstantiated ramblings and childish accusations with no proof whatsoever."


-Lobster
 
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WhineyLobster

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Prologue:

You provided links claiming they supported your view of comparing chess and poker. While generally comparing chess and poker is not really crazy and I agree that chess players would likely make good poker players, you went beyond this to imply that chess and poker are substantially very similar games. And in concluding this you claim that since chess isnt gambling...therefore poker must not be gambling. But lets take a look at the articles you provided... is it possible that they actually say the opposite of what you claim their support of?... GASP! Below are quotes from the articles, the one I found most telling was the 3rd link which included "How chess and poker differ"

Link 1: http://www.pokerlistings.com/wsop-2011-best-bets-chess-players-30463

“A lot of chess players look at poker as a great way to make money in gaming, especially because of the luck element,” he said.

“Chess players generally have a hard time dealing with the idea that you can get sucked out on, but they understand that that’s where all the value comes from.

Link 2: http://en.chessbase.com/home/TabId/211/PostId/4006253

"Of course there are many adjustments to make — as chess players we are used to having to find the best move in the position, the “absolute truth” supported by the calculations, and in poker you can never be sure about the exactitude of your calculations. It is a game of incomplete information and you should integrate many other factors in your decision making."

“You have to dodge a lot of bullets in these big field tournaments, but hopefully if you’re the better player you’re going to win the money in the end,” he said.

"Alexander Grischuk was the 2009 Russian champion of chess and despite not having any wsop results, he has played in at least two WSOP Main Events, in 2009 and 2010. Grischuk made it to Day 3 in 2010 and reportedly lost an enormous pot with pocket queens all-in preflop against K-6 to lose the majority of his stack. “Grischuk is playing a ton of poker now so you can definitely expect him to do something big,” said Ylon Schwartz. Grischuk’s biggest poker result so far is a 33rd at the 2008 EPT Barcelona main event worth $25,678."


Link 3: http://chess.about.com/od/chesscommunities/a/Chess-And-Poker.htm
"While the gameplay of chess and poker may seem very different - one is a game of complete information with no elements of chance, while the other is a game of incomplete information that uses cards to generate randomness - there are some critical similarities between the two."

"Chess players think ahead during their games, and know that any single bad move can lead to an immediate loss; poker players plan ahead during a hand, and know that any given hand in a tournament can be their last."

"How Chess and Poker Differ

Of course, for all of their similarities, there are some differences chess players must get used to when they move to the world of poker.In chess, good play is (essentially) always rewarded; if you outplay an opponent, you'll get the win, and you only have yourself to blame if you lose. On the other hand, while poker is certainly a game of skill by any reasonable definition, luck players an enormous factor in the short run; even great players have been known to routinely go on losing streaks that last thousands of hands through absolutely no fault of their own."


Finally...the cases. And of course by cases I mean...case.

gambling, as interpretted under the Illegal Gambling Business Act.

http://jurist.org/paperchase/103482098-U-S-vs-DiCristina-Opinion-08-21-2012.pdf
Although I could go into much detail about case analysis and the vast amounts of cases that have held that poker is gambling, I do not need to because this case is rather simple to explain.

The IGBA does not reference poker expressly in the law. It does however list other games of chance. All of these games of chance were held by the judge to involve a MAJORITY chance. Thus, he reasoned that the IGBA only covers games as 'gambling' which are a MAJORITY chance...more than 50%. In fact, if you read the opinion throughout the expert for the defendant repeatedly said that poker is a game of chance, but merely claimed that it was, at least for some players, more than 50% skill. Certainly this can be argued and should, as a poker player I also want it to be legal. However, it must be noted that this holding is only a product of the poor language of that statute. Under the statute, the judge reasonably found that it must be at least 50% chance to be gambling...however as we have discussed earlier this is not the general definition of gambling. The general definition of gambling is a game of chance where a wager is made on the outcome. ANY game of chance...not just those that are above 50%. This is a very important distinction between the legal definition (limited in scope to this law, there are certainly many many other state laws that specifically list poker as gambling and this argument would not apply to those) and the ACTUAL definition of gambling. Nevertheless, the case has been appealed and

the verdict is still out on whether that will be upheld.

-Lobster
 
Matt Vaughan

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Sorry Paler, but when you start getting that long-winded, it's no longer worth my time. The only thing I have to say is: stop exaggerating my statements. I never, EVER said that poker is "solely a game of chance" as you claimed I said. Don't assume everyone is trying to 100% refute your whole existence as a person. It's just a friendly debate.

And as I said at LEAST 3 times, I KNOW THAT POKER IS A GAME OF SKILL. You are making an enormous assumption that a game of skill cannot ALSO be a game of chance.

Good day sir.
 
AlfieAA

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Michael, if poker isn't gambling then how do you explain variance for a winning player?
 
Michael Paler

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3,603 words from two replies barely put into a readable form to dazzle, amaze and disguise this poster's inability to communicate and continue to insult me as having a gambling problem


So you just pop in here and try to bully me after saying nasty things about me and making false accusations based off of....not a Goddamn thing. Well, let me tell you something slick; you can use all the long rambling statements you want to (incorrectly spelled and punctuated despite a check-as-you-go selling/punctuation system), make all the snide unfounded accusations that you want, troll me all day and all night long if you want. Make posts in reply to mine that take up 1/2 the page and say nothing at all. I could give a poop less pal.

Yet let me make some assumptions about you for a change, zippy, the same way you have me. Let me judge you not the way that you have judged me, for I will back mine up with some clearly obvious and very reasonable deductions; safe bets, if you will:

1.) You have a very low ability to comprehend what you read. That is painfully obvious from your ramblings, making false quotes, taking what I posted out of context, proceeding from those false assumptions and in general making no sense whatsoever. You are therefore either a grade school/high school dropout or a result of "passing on" with a grade given, not earned.

2.) Or it could be that....you are taking some kind of "medication" (thus the inability to notice those red squiggly lines under incorrectly typed words; like dont vs don't, interpretted vs interpreted, etc.). It gets hard to comprehend what you are doing when you are under the influence. It is even harder to read and follow when sober. This could very well be why.

3.) You also repeat yourself over and over as if it is a whole new counterpoint, not merely repeating for effect or reference.

4.) You use innuendo/supposition never backed up by facts, while at the same time you ignore clearly stated facts and simply lie that no facts have been given.

5.) You conveniently leave important statements out, parse words to suit your argument when you cannot give an honest debate back.

6.) When you cannot defeat the argument, you simply revert to baseless insults and get very personal.

7.) You use examples that go out of their way to distract.

8.) You use the disagreements of others here to what I am saying as actual proof I am wrong, since you cannot prove me wrong yourself.

9.) You have no life and therefore get a thrill from being a cyberbully. This is the longest troll post I have ever seen.

10.) You ignore the fact that this is not a post that will get a tremendous number of response from those who agree; because it is a moot point to them. It is a post to educate and support new players, the CardsChat community in it's entirety, and poker as a whole. It is not to justify the gambling addiction you seem to want to insist I have (as a way to prove yourself correct, obviously). No, that is passion. Look it up. Be careful, however. If you should, in a stupor, type in "gambling" you will come across the very definitions I have posted here, causing your world to very possibly come crashing down around you.

I would therefore assume that, in other words, you are simply being mean and stupid. But I will not call you that. You are the kind of person that give mean and stupid a bad name.

Consider yourself as having been MPaled my friend. And please get a life. Maybe actually learn poker and/or chess.
 
Michael Paler

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Sorry Paler, but when you start getting that long-winded, it's no longer worth my time. The only thing I have to say is: stop exaggerating my statements. I never, EVER said that poker is "solely a game of chance" as you claimed I said. Don't assume everyone is trying to 100% refute your whole existence as a person. It's just a friendly debate.

And as I said at LEAST 3 times, I KNOW THAT POKER IS A GAME OF SKILL. You are making an enormous assumption that a game of skill cannot ALSO be a game of chance.

Good day sir.

Were the definitions and the example of poker card rooms in California despite gambling being illegal in California, to long winded as well? Nevermind. You have already conceded defeat by acknowledging that poker is a game of skill. Games of skill are not gambling. Like when you accidently stated that a chess tournament you pay to get into is gambling. That's ok, I got your back my friend.

Thanks for agreeing with me.
 
AlfieAA

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Michael I'm not trying to be rude, but if you keep this up, you will irritate a lot of people with your insufferable 'I'm right you're wrong' attitude......poker is gambling...its that simple...grasp it, take it in and accept it....
 
Michael Paler

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Michael, if poker isn't gambling then how do you explain variance for a winning player?

Simple, provided that you mean "variance" as in "a player sometimes losses, sometimes wins (either a hand or the game as a whole)"; If this is not what you mean, please correct me and repost. Assuming that is what you mean then...that is one of the very things that disproves it is more based on luck than skill and therefore gambling!

The variance comes from the following: Long term proven expectations going the other expected way in the short term.

For example, you know if an Ace falls you will win. Say it is 3-1 that the ace falls based on 100,000,000 hands in the exact same situation. Yet, realize it is also 1-3 that it does not fall over the same number of hands. When it does not, it is not bad luck per say, just that expected 1-3 showing up.

Now, since the 1-3 and 3-1 is based on the long term, the short term can see that ace fall 10-1 or not fall 10-1. SHORT TERM. Only over enough hands does it average 3-1, it falls, 1-3 it does not fall. It does not get to this point equally however.

That is where "luck" is coming into this! In the short term, never over the long term.

It will average 3-1 and no more or less no matter what long term. So you use the 3-1 as a base estimate and you get lucky or not in the short term only. There is no luck at all in the long term. Period. It will fall 3-1 every 100,000,000 hands every time. How else did they get those odds? That removes luck completely in the long run. Sure, an ace could fall 100,000,000 times in a row or not fall 100,000,000 times in a row, but we know that it will not. It could, but it will not.

As you can now understand, it will not fall ace-ace-ace-no ace (3-1) and then start over. That ace might fall 10 times before it does not fall, but the times it will not fall will eventually even out to equal 3-1 in the long run.

So the variance is due to the expected odds going the other way in the short term. That is luck. Yet since it will average out over xxx number of hands, that is not luck at all. That is math.

But wait! It is not over yet! You can actually predict which way it will most likely go despite the short term! To do this, you use the odds of probability.

Say you have seen that AK has won 12 times in a row for you and other players who were dealt those cards. Now you know the odds say it should have failed several of those times. But it has not.

You look down and see AK in your pocket. Well, you already know that the short term is paying off, but going against the odds of probability. The odds are far greater it will fail this time. Why? It is overdue to fail.

So, instead of getting aggressive as usual, you play it cautiously because you know it is due to go the other way and fail in order to maintain the long term odds. You play it like you always do preflop, but you will use caution post flop.

Sure enough, the flop comes with a possible st8 or flush you do not have. You fold, breathlessly waiting. The players end up all in by the river. Sure enough, one has a st8 or flush. Had you ignored the odds of probability, you would have lost, as they predicted. That you saved yourself by folding was not luck! You used the odds of probability to save you!

Sadly, you might not know that it has held the last 12 times someone has held it. Then when you go to the river and fail, you think "bad luck"; as you now know it was not bad luck, just unknown odds.

All of this explains the variance winning players go thru. Since you are not able to see everyones hand every time, you are forced to rely on what you do know. Sometimes it is enough. Sometimes it is not. But all the odds of any hand or any situation is averaged out and is cast in stone.
 
Michael Paler

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Michael I'm not trying to be rude, but if you keep this up, you will irritate a lot of people with your insufferable 'I'm right you're wrong' attitude......poker is gambling...its that simple...grasp it, take it in and accept it....

I find your insufferable 'I'm right you're wrong' attitude......poker is gambling...its that simple...grasp it, take it in and accept it....to be a hypocritical statement. What do you base as proof that it is gambling? I should just take your word for it? You are doing the exact same thing you are accusing me of, Alfie! Only I am proving that I am correct. Don't you guys ever read a poker book? No offense meant, none taken. If you pay attention, you will learn something here. Some folk's stubborn refusal to acknowledge the facts I am putting out is getting tiring. So is the trolling they are doing. I thank you, Alfie, for not doing that.

Please notice; I have finished answering and explaining your question about variance.

Go read it and then you can respond to me. Answering your question also provided the mathematical proof I am right. I wrote it in layman's terms, so you do not have to be a math wiz to understand it, I hope. As for being rude to people dismissing me, trolling my post and insulting me, all while not offering any proof whatsoever, relax. You are not doing that. I am not being rude to you.

As if all the other proof I have put forth that has simply been ignored has not already....

Look folks, I am not just making this stuff up as I go. I am trying to pass on to you what I have learned so you can benefit from it as well. And I did not learn it from some nut in a dark alley. All of this is from books like Super System 1 and 2, reputable poker training sites and experience. As well as facts already in evidence, such as here in California and other places. Are you really going to tell me the supreme court of California and Nevada are just being stubborn and stupid? That they do not know if poker is or is not gambling? Seriously, that is what you are telling me by simply continuing to ignore this as well as what I am proving right here in this post based on math and science.
 
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AlfieAA

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I've not long woke up, and I'm starving, will read your posts properly in a bit michael, thanks for your replys btw, even if I agree or disagree its all good ;)
 
runnerx289

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Poker is 100% skill, and 100% luck
 
Michael Paler

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Poker is 100% skill, and 100% luck

Read post number 62 and get back to me. If it does not change your mind, then you simply do not get it. No problem. Fair enough. We can agree to disagree my friend.
 
Michael Paler

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I've not long woke up, and I'm starving, will read your posts properly in a bit michael, thanks for your replys btw, even if I agree or disagree its all good ;)

Well thank you Alfie. The mathematics I repeat there are understood by very few and prove it is not gambling as well as offer up ways to improve your game (cool huh?). This type of "next gen" math is just a dark art to many a player. But rest assured, the top pros understand it and use it.

You don't think Phil Ivey and Tom Dwan are just more lucky than the rest, do you? Of course not. This is the stuff they rarely speak of.

Now go get something to eat, fill up the coffee cup and enjoy! And have a nice day, I am going to bed, lol.
 
Matt Vaughan

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Were the definitions and the example of poker card rooms in California despite gambling being illegal in California, to long winded as well? Nevermind. You have already conceded defeat by acknowledging that poker is a game of skill. Games of skill are not gambling. Like when you accidently stated that a chess tournament you pay to get into is gambling. That's ok, I got your back my friend.

Thanks for agreeing with me.

The bolded is (one of) the reason(s) no one is going to enjoy responding in this thread once you reply to them. Please at least attempt to be respectful and not unnecessarily sarcastic.

1. There is no "defeat" and "victory" here. It should be afriendly discussion.

2. You keep ignoring the chance aspect, which is why it's no longer worth my time to write full responses.

3. Nothing was accidental, since as I said in previous posts, everything (and I MEAN "everything") has an element of chance.

If you're going to ignore what I say in concise posts, don't get all high and mighty when I choose not to read your... somewhat longer ones.
 
Propane Goat

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Regardless of whether we agree or disagree in this forum about whether or not poker is gambling, there is most likely a very significant portion of the voting public at large who are absolutely convinced that poker is in fact gambling and they have all the proof they need.

Their proof? Poker is played in a casino, therefore it's gambling.
 
NvrBlufn

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Whenever chess is played for money, it can be considered gambling... Whenever poker games are played, even if for no money, society still seems to think it is gambling! OP I understand your frustration. My family/girlfriend/whoever do not seem to understand any argument I present that I am not so much gambling as it seems. I guess the connotation is very bad and many people don't want to be labeled a problem gambler therefore feathers are easily ruffled. Professionals have the results to back it up and could care less being labeled a gambler. The rest of us building our bankrolls up need both skill and luck however and neither one will suffice for the sake of the other. I have said it a hundred times, poker IS a game of SKILL. I have no response regarding luck because without it I could never explain a number of bad beats/wins.

My suggestion is not to get into it with people whether it is gambling or not. Feel the way you want to feel about it, and keep getting better at the game. I say anyone who knows the game well enough to cash or place first in a large MTT cannot be riding solely on luck. Like in chess there are tons of strategies, moves or plays that can be executed at any time. Like in life we will never be done learning and practicing these concepts. My family will say fine, fine you won xxx amount. You still need a J-O-B. Perhaps the only way out is to prove yourself. They can't argue with your 6+figure poker winnings
 
AlfieAA

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Simple, provided that you mean "variance" as in "a player sometimes losses, sometimes wins (either a hand or the game as a whole)"; If this is not what you mean, please correct me and repost. Assuming that is what you mean then...that is one of the very things that disproves it is more based on luck than skill and therefore gambling!

The variance comes from the following: Long term proven expectations going the other expected way in the short term.

For example, you know if an Ace falls you will win. Say it is 3-1 that the ace falls based on 100,000,000 hands in the exact same situation. Yet, realize it is also 1-3 that it does not fall over the same number of hands. When it does not, it is not bad luck per say, just that expected 1-3 showing up.

Now, since the 1-3 and 3-1 is based on the long term, the short term can see that ace fall 10-1 or not fall 10-1. SHORT TERM. Only over enough hands does it average 3-1, it falls, 1-3 it does not fall. It does not get to this point equally however.

That is where "luck" is coming into this! In the short term, never over the long term.

It will average 3-1 and no more or less no matter what long term. So you use the 3-1 as a base estimate and you get lucky or not in the short term only. There is no luck at all in the long term. Period. It will fall 3-1 every 100,000,000 hands every time. How else did they get those odds? That removes luck completely in the long run. Sure, an ace could fall 100,000,000 times in a row or not fall 100,000,000 times in a row, but we know that it will not. It could, but it will not.

As you can now understand, it will not fall ace-ace-ace-no ace (3-1) and then start over. That ace might fall 10 times before it does not fall, but the times it will not fall will eventually even out to equal 3-1 in the long run.

So the variance is due to the expected odds going the other way in the short term. That is luck. Yet since it will average out over xxx number of hands, that is not luck at all. That is math.

But wait! It is not over yet! You can actually predict which way it will most likely go despite the short term! To do this, you use the odds of probability.

Say you have seen that AK has won 12 times in a row for you and other players who were dealt those cards. Now you know the odds say it should have failed several of those times. But it has not.

You look down and see AK in your pocket. Well, you already know that the short term is paying off, but going against the odds of probability. The odds are far greater it will fail this time. Why? It is overdue to fail.

So, instead of getting aggressive as usual, you play it cautiously because you know it is due to go the other way and fail in order to maintain the long term odds. You play it like you always do preflop, but you will use caution post flop.

Sure enough, the flop comes with a possible st8 or flush you do not have. You fold, breathlessly waiting. The players end up all in by the river. Sure enough, one has a st8 or flush. Had you ignored the odds of probability, you would have lost, as they predicted. That you saved yourself by folding was not luck! You used the odds of probability to save you!

Sadly, you might not know that it has held the last 12 times someone has held it. Then when you go to the river and fail, you think "bad luck"; as you now know it was not bad luck, just unknown odds.

All of this explains the variance winning players go thru. Since you are not able to see everyones hand every time, you are forced to rely on what you do know. Sometimes it is enough. Sometimes it is not. But all the odds of any hand or any situation is averaged out and is cast in stone.

Well thank you Alfie. The mathematics I repeat there are understood by very few and prove it is not gambling as well as offer up ways to improve your game (cool huh?). This type of "next gen" math is just a dark art to many a player. But rest assured, the top pros understand it and use it.

You don't think Phil Ivey and Tom Dwan are just more lucky than the rest, do you? Of course not. This is the stuff they rarely speak of.

Now go get something to eat, fill up the coffee cup and enjoy! And have a nice day, I am going to bed, lol.



ok cool i understand now....short term luck, long term skill ...fair enough? ;)
 
cardriverx

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If you put money in on a chess match or an underwater picture contest that is gambling with your money, just as is paying to buy in to a poker tournament.

Sure, it's less of a gamble to play HU4ROLLZ if you are #1 Chess player v #10 Chess player (where you'll prob win 99% of the time) than if you are #1 Poker Player v #10 Poker Player (where you'll prob win 55% of the time, Max), but both are still gambles.
 
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I would therefore assume that, in other words, you are simply being mean and stupid. But I will not call you that. You are the kind of person that give mean and stupid a bad name.

Consider yourself as having been MPaled my friend. And please get a life. Maybe actually learn poker and/or chess.


Good job not addressing ANYTHING I said and actually simply just quoting me as saying something I did not say at all.... you truly are a fool. I will consider myself...'mpaled'...is that the same as being trolled? You just go right back to calling names... lets get a mod in here and permaban this fool. I wonder if how much skill/luck that takes...

Have a good life.
 
Michael Paler

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The bolded is (one of) the reason(s) no one is going to enjoy responding in this thread once you reply to them. Please at least attempt to be respectful and not unnecessarily sarcastic.

1. There is no "defeat" and "victory" here. It should be afriendly discussion.

I thought I was keeping it friendly. Sorry if you read into my response something that is not intended. It is just that after continually dodging key points and examples and merely dismissing me out of hand, yet still somehow insisting I am wrong, I merely took that as an unspoken surrender on your part. I guess I read into your response the wrong thing. And I say surrender because there is "defeat" or "victory" here in a sense; you have made it so. While I am trying to educate people you are arguing with the teacher as if you are so certain that I am wrong, all the while proving nothing but simply giving me arguments that do no such thing as prove my wrong. I am passing on facts, logic, and math. You are arguing personal opinion as fact, personal opinion as proof. I said it before, you should have read it; I am not just making this stuff up. I am passing on things about poker that I have learned. If you do not like the teacher or the subject matter, do not show up at the class.

2. You keep ignoring the chance aspect, which is why it's no longer worth my time to write full responses.

No offense again, after you first dismiss my points because they are "to long winded" you now are dismissing them because I am supposedly "ignoring the chance aspect"? No offense, if you could make up your mind which it is, I would appreciate it. When in fact, that chance aspect, or rather the misunderstanding of it, is key to my case here. I more fully cover the chance aspect in post #62. I mean, if you really thought I was being so long winded, then why reply at all? Why do you critique me for ignoring things that I most certainly am not ignoring at all? Especially when you really are, no offense. No, I just (no offense intended) think that is a weak answer used in order to dodge having to acknowledge I could be correct here, IMHO. You are just simply dismissing me based on nothing at all yet still claiming I am incorrect. You also continue to totally ignore my California example. Continue to totally ignore the definitions I posted. Yet insist I am wrong. WOW.

3. Nothing was accidental, since as I said in previous posts, everything (and I MEAN "everything") has an element of chance.

Yes, precisely. Yet that alone is not enough to make something gambling or not gambling. It is only one ingredient in this pie, so to speak. And I back this up using the math as example and proof.

If you're going to ignore what I say in concise posts, don't get all high and mighty when I choose not to read your... somewhat longer ones.

Not getting high and mighty at all. That looked to me like a clearly (again, no offense) bogus dismissal; I did not ignore what you said in concise posts, you ignored my responses to them (too "long winded", remember?). Maybe it was not your intent to do this. But it is unfair of you to simply say I failed to do something I most certainly have done.

Look, I am sorry if you disagree but cannot back it up. I mean no offense, I am trying to educate people about what poker is and is not using examples (odds/math) that both explain it and can improve your game. I live in a state where it is established law that poker is not gambling and yet it is only one state that has decided this. By continually ignoring this, you are just arguing with me for the sake of arguing. If I were to say this is trolling, you would then get offended. I simply do not know how else to describe it.

Please, sir, if you would be so kind, either explain where the State of California and I are wrong or stop responding to this post. Let us just "agree to disagree".
 
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Bro...you are wrong. its been laid out pretty clear by multiple people. You return with insults...

Sad to see you live in my great city... San Diego. I hope I have the pleasure of meeting you someday, something tells me ill be able to tell immediately who you are.
 
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