Only fish use the word "Luck"

K

klickitat

Rock Star
Strong statement, maybe, but I believe it holds true and here is why.

First I come from blackjack background and the lessons learned there directly apply to poker.

The first thing you need to realize is that you are playing the percentages and it is your job to make plays when those percentages are in your favor. If you make plays when they are not in your favor then it is called gambling.

The second thing you need to come to grips with is the fact you are not going to win every hand even when the odds are 99% in your favor. There is no luck involved, just a mathematical fact that you will loose 1% of the time over the long haul in those situations.

So starting with these two facts we approach the game knowing that we are not playing just one hand or even one game, but rather a period of time that includes many games with the bigger the sample the more likely variances are absorbed.

Catching cards or bad beats are only a product of the odds. If you play the odds over the long haul you will be successful. If is your job play those preferred times that increase your success.

Blackjack is but a simplified game of poker where you are not allowed to play against people, but the choice when to raise, call or fold are still the same. What holds true for both games is the fact that you need to be prepared to take advantage of the odds when they are in your favor. Gambling on long shots will more often than not drain your stack and leave you unable to maximize the value of a hand.


Remember that once the cards are shuffled the die is cast and there is no luck involved. There are only opportunities that pass by now and then. Be patient and wait for the best chance of success and remember that an 80% favor to win also means that 20% of the time you will loose. No luck, just math.
 
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mar_dragan

mar_dragan

Legend
Oh common man,i am fish then pff.But it is ok for me i am Fish and i use word Luck,because sometime this game is gamble and you need that luck to win a hand,tournament.
So i am fish and i don't feel bad ;)
 
onondaga

onondaga

Ukraine
Community Guide
Awards
14
UA
you r right! when you make all-in move having 9x% to win with FullH (KT on ATTK board) and your opp calling it with 2 pair (A5 hand) and get this damn Ace on river thats a great mathematical thinking to get 1 from 2 outs! He is not lucky he just good player. ..... or not?

Luck is like patience and knowledge, the part of this game! IMAO ;)
 
G

Gump877

Enthusiast
I think theres luck needed for short term success but longterm after the luck gets distributed equally it becomes skill.
 
dj11

dj11

Legend
Awards
9
Since we are merely mortal beings, we don't have the time to use this theory. And if we did, the game (all games) would be net zero or worse (rake / fees).

We mere mortals decide that we do need a measurement and we choose something akin to a session. We have decided to use the word 'LUCK' to describe our outcomes. Really it might better be described as the ebb and flow of the odds. But that is clumsy, and luck sounds better.

There are those sessions where things work well for us, and those where nothing works. That is the ebb and flow. It might be mostly statistical, but it also involves stuff like our mental states, our moods, our health, or whether or not that rabbit foot is in the left pocket!

While my counter is simplistic, so is your original post.

When we speak of luck we are talking about all the combined factors which produce good or bad results during our sessions.

I play another online game that perhaps shows off the non statistical aspects of the ebb and flow a bit better. It is a word find game. Originally seen as Tangleword, or Boggle, I play it now as Serpentine Game. (google it). There are days where I am not observing well, and others where I have eagle eyes.

As my familiarity with that game grows, with increasing awareness of the twists and turns (pun intended) my overall performance improves. But then I might (and have) gone thru long stretches (2 weeks or more) of just piss poor performance.

I also play online backgammon, same thing is seen there, and ebb and flow.

Most of that ebb and flow as judged by results, I am now almost convinced, is a function of my (specifically) observational reactions to dynamic situations. I find that when I am doing good or bad at one of those, I will do the same at any of those (including OLP, and even solitaire).

So, while the statistics of poker are valid, it is all the other things AND those stats which go into the concept of 'Luck'. Those you call 'fish' just have less awareness of the totality of the ebb and flow of gaming. Or they may be discounting the importance of all the components in the art of the game (any game).

I offer the above as a partial description of 'Luck'. Not a definition.
 
Yermek

Yermek

Legend
Awards
4
Strong statement, maybe, but I believe it holds true and here is why.

First I come from Blackjack background and the lessons learned there directly apply to poker.

The first thing you need to realize is that you are playing the percentages and it is your job to make plays when those percentages are in your favor. If you make plays when they are not in your favor then it is called gambling.

The second thing you need to come to grips with is the fact you are not going to win every hand even when the odds are 99% in your favor. There is no luck involved, just a mathematical fact that you will loose 1% of the time over the long haul in those situations.

So starting with these two facts we approach the game knowing that we are not playing just one hand or even one game, but rather a period of time that includes many games with the bigger the sample the more likely variances are absorbed.

Catching cards or bad beats are only a product of the odds. If you play the odds over the long haul you will be successful. If is your job play those preferred times that increase your success.

Blackjack is but a simplified game of poker where you are not allowed to play against people, but the choice when to raise, call or fold are still the same. What holds true for both games is the fact that you need to be prepared to take advantage of the odds when they are in your favor. Gambling on long shots will more often than not drain your stack and leave you unable to maximize the value of a hand.


Remember that once the cards are shuffled the die is cast and there is no luck involved. There are only opportunities that pass by now and then. Be patient and wait for the best chance of success and remember that an 80% favor to win also means that 20% of the time you will loose. No luck, just math.
You are wrong, there is luck :)
 
V

vassiriki

Rock Star
Since we are merely mortal beings, we don't have the time to use this theory. And if we did, the game (all games) would be net zero or worse (rake / fees).

We mere mortals decide that we do need a measurement and we choose something akin to a session. We have decided to use the word 'LUCK' to describe our outcomes. Really it might better be described as the ebb and flow of the odds. But that is clumsy, and luck sounds better.

There are those sessions where things work well for us, and those where nothing works. That is the ebb and flow. It might be mostly statistical, but it also involves stuff like our mental states, our moods, our health, or whether or not that rabbit foot is in the left pocket!

While my counter is simplistic, so is your original post.

When we speak of luck we are talking about all the combined factors which produce good or bad results during our sessions.

I play another online game that perhaps shows off the non statistical aspects of the ebb and flow a bit better. It is a word find game. Originally seen as Tangleword, or Boggle, I play it now as Serpentine Game. (google it). There are days where I am not observing well, and others where I have eagle eyes.

As my familiarity with that game grows, with increasing awareness of the twists and turns (pun intended) my overall performance improves. But then I might (and have) gone thru long stretches (2 weeks or more) of just piss poor performance.

I also play online backgammon, same thing is seen there, and ebb and flow.

Most of that ebb and flow as judged by results, I am now almost convinced, is a function of my (specifically) observational reactions to dynamic situations. I find that when I am doing good or bad at one of those, I will do the same at any of those (including OLP, and even solitaire).

So, while the statistics of poker are valid, it is all the other things AND those stats which go into the concept of 'Luck'. Those you call 'fish' just have less awareness of the totality of the ebb and flow of gaming. Or they may be discounting the importance of all the components in the art of the game (any game).

I offer the above as a partial description of 'Luck'. Not a definition.

first and foremost, i don't believe in luck. it's just probability and as you mentioned we only count the ones which are not in our favour but if we would keep a diary or smt. i think the ones we got lucky and battered by luck would cancel each other. the profits and losses might not be equal though but there's also a lot of the psychological aspect. if you keep thinking negative, first of all your play will deteriorate but if you stay calm and wait for the right moves and cards, they'll also get to you!!!
 
Luci

Luci

Rising Star
notreally

I think.. I don t agree man. We all understand it s math, loosing 1 % of the time , but that 1 % when happens to you, you consider yourself a little bit lucky,cause cmon it's one time in 100. and when it happens against you, how do you call it? MATH??? there is the luck factor after all, but hey that s my opinion.:D :D :D :D
 
jaymfc

jaymfc

R.I.P DJ & Buck
Awards
71
only a fish would believe everything they have accomplished in poker or life
was due to the math. luck runs so strong in life and poker. are some people
born smarter or better off than others ? lucky. and a million other things like that,
but I'll stick to poker.
did you see the "against the odds play" by Chris moneymaker, Jamie gold, Jerry yang
or many of the winners of the wsop? mathematically those same plays won't work in the "long haul"
but how is the long haul gonna get that money back? it can't take the title back. is that lucky?
I 100% know what you are saying and totally agree on the mathematics.
but long haul doesn't even apply to most people. luck does .
I'm not one of the lucky ones who can explain his side well but believe me when I tell you luck is a
part of everything in life including poker. good luck :p JMO :)
 
J

jwlaw35

Rock Star
odds.. luck.. seems like the same word to me.. If you go with the odds to win % you still going to need some luck.. case in point I get KK and another guy gets AA.. I smooth call he raises.. (not enough to scare me away mind you) I call and Flop comes AK2.... Now we can call it what we want but what I call it is unlucky! Unlucky I have KK when AA is in the hand and even more unlucky to have hit a set against another higher set! So the chips hit the fan and the turn comes a K! Where I collect the pot and get called a fish by an unhappy.. unlucky.. player.. true the odds had little to offer in a crazy hand like this but if odds always held up the only hand anyone would play is AA? Its not that simple
 
pescaofish

pescaofish

Legend
Awards
10
Luck is the Air

you may call it "Variance" but all it is is Luck and I do have all the theory involved: Math and Statistics, so please dont be crazy, Luck is always involved! :deal:
 
dundo84

dundo84

Rock Star
Strong statement, maybe, but I believe it holds true and here is why.

First I come from Blackjack background and the lessons learned there directly apply to poker.

The first thing you need to realize is that you are playing the percentages and it is your job to make plays when those percentages are in your favor. If you make plays when they are not in your favor then it is called gambling.

The second thing you need to come to grips with is the fact you are not going to win every hand even when the odds are 99% in your favor. There is no luck involved, just a mathematical fact that you will loose 1% of the time over the long haul in those situations.

So starting with these two facts we approach the game knowing that we are not playing just one hand or even one game, but rather a period of time that includes many games with the bigger the sample the more likely variances are absorbed.

Catching cards or bad beats are only a product of the odds. If you play the odds over the long haul you will be successful. If is your job play those preferred times that increase your success.

Blackjack is but a simplified game of poker where you are not allowed to play against people, but the choice when to raise, call or fold are still the same. What holds true for both games is the fact that you need to be prepared to take advantage of the odds when they are in your favor. Gambling on long shots will more often than not drain your stack and leave you unable to maximize the value of a hand.


Remember that once the cards are shuffled the die is cast and there is no luck involved. There are only opportunities that pass by now and then. Be patient and wait for the best chance of success and remember that an 80% favor to win also means that 20% of the time you will loose. No luck, just math.
Let's put this over a long period, hmm 7000 years maybe.1% of 7000 years is 70 years, so lets asume the first 70 years the odds are against you and you lose no matter how good u play.So u would need to live 6930 years more to be profitable on the long run, and even then it would be ??? Mathematicly this is correct, right?
Things look different in reality, some people have the variance more often on their side (LUCKY), some not (UNLUCKY).
 
P

ph_il

...
I use the word luck all the time. In fact, I support the thought that MTTs are not won on skill alone and a lot of luck is involved. So, no, I don't think only "fish" use that word. I do hate the word 'fish' though, so maybe the uneducated use it.

They use the word luck as in lucky/unlucky as an excuse for why they do poorly. Yes sometimes they do get unlucky running KK into AA but it's also the same excuse for then they play badly. It's never their fault they lost. Instead, it's because someone else got lucky and they got unlucky.
 
K

klickitat

Rock Star
For all those that believe in luck.

where does luck begin? Do you get lucky every time you get 2 good cards? Is it when you flop a set or a full house? How about when you hit on the river? So you are lucky when good happens and not when bad happens.

So are you unlucky when you toss 4/8 off in the UTG and flop comes 884? What about when you your flop four A's and nobody has a second best hand to play? Are you lucky or unlucky?

When does the luck start? Does it start with the deal? Does it start with the flop? How about the cut or the shuffle as all the cards are now set and the order can not change. Or do you think there is a poker god that rearranges the cards in the deck for those that it determines is going to be lucky?

Maybe you think it is all about sitting in the right place that makes you lucky. Or maybe it was the right underwear that turned on the luck geni.

Well I disagree with Luck. In poker you have probability and odds. That's it. How you play those odds is up to you, but you can not change them. There are mountains of books and computer programs that we all study so that we can play them to our best ability.
 
Toasted_Luck

Toasted_Luck

Rock Star
My name says it all... when. I'm lucky, I tend to get a little burnt. So my luck gets toasted hence, Toasted_Luck
 
dundo84

dundo84

Rock Star
Luck has nothing to do with seat position, fav hand etc. , some people tend to believe in that but thats superstition.Like i said above luck is one side of the variance or with other words an event in time which will benefit you.
 
E

ekgbeat

Legend
Awards
2
OP, I agree with most of what you are saying, but I'm not sure what you are trying to accomplish with your statement that "Only fish use the word Luck". Using the word luck or variance is really just semantics, and why argue that?

Many top name professional poker players have used the term luck to describe certain situations. Are you call of of those players "fish"?
 
B

Broon1234

Rock Star
Yes certainly what you say is true about math, long run, percentages. But if I flip a coin once and it's heads, that individual flip is luck. Same principle applies with cards, short term is luck and it is certainly present.
 
t1riel

t1riel

Legend
There is this guy I play poker with weekly and it's the kind of player that DOESN"T SHUT UP! The most common thing he always says is "Luck beats skill every time." Then, I raise preflop and he folds. I reply back "Luck didn't help you that time, huh?"
 
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