Let's build some bankroll - who's with me?

[Virv]

Day 11: 268% (751.48)
Day 12: 332% (929.73)
Day 13: 302% (845.03)

 

[Chris_TC]

Progress Update

Day 51: 599% ($11,982)
Day 53: 656% ($13,119)
Day 58: 669% ($13,375)

I finally got to play a few hours. Nothing spectacular happened.
It's kinda good that I made the switch to Pokerstars towards the end of the year. This way, I can go for Supernova right from Jan. 1st.

 

[SeanyJ]

Well I'm on quite the rollercoaster so far. I try to just play Sit and Goes but for some reason I always get bored and turn to cash games. I like to play at .25/.50 cent tables because that's just where I feel comfortable even though it is wayyyyyy too high for my bankroll. I fell victim to some pretty bad beats and made some really stupid calls but I'm on my way back up. I think I will play one cash table and one sit and go at the same time to try and keep myself from getting too bored.

Day 0 100.00% (173.32)
Day 1 104.11% (180.44)
Day 2 113.37% (196.49)
Day 3 59.57% (103.24)
Day 5 55.70% (96.54)
Day 6 55.70% (96.54)
Day 7 101.77% (176.38)

 

[Chris_TC]

Progress Update

Day 53: 656% ($13,119)
Day 58: 669% ($13,375)
Day 59: 687% ($13,733)

Well, today I finally hit 15K. As was my plan, I started playing $3/$6 with $500 buy-ins.

As soon as I switched limits, my hands started to fall apart.
The fourth hand I played, I was all-in preflop with KK against QQ. Obviously, I lost.
After 440 hands of playing the new limit, I'm running at -22.8 PtBB/100. What a lovely start :thumpdown

 

[pigpen02]

I was never able to recover my previous data, so I will start over. After my last post I had a bad run of cards and when I did get cards, opponents sucked out with runner-runner straights, etc., and I lost down to about 110% of my start. Those days were recorded on the sheet I lost and I was just in the process of getting it ready to post here when it locked up. I am still reviewing the games to see if I had developed a leak, but I don't think I did. However, I have dropped down from $3/$6 to $2/$4 because of my bankroll management limits. Anyway, here is my new starting graph.

1 109.2%
2 109.2%
3 109.2%
4 111.9%
5 111.0%
6 112.4%
7 115.5%

 

[wsorbust]

Ok. So, I'm back, and everyone seems to be doing fairly well in their bankroll progress. NJ. Keep it up!

Anywhoo, it was an eventful night back to the rings. I might have played an hour at most, I'm not too sure. The first real hand I play, my trips on the river gave villian a straight flush. I would make a comeback though, it seems I still know how to play with the fishies. Hitting a couple straights and flushes on the flop helped a bit, not to mention when the board splatted trip A's when I'm holding the other one.
Who knows if I'll play later or when I'll venture back into Sng land. I'm sitting slightly below my previous high and would like to break it, so I think an attempt is in order, but I've got massive sinus infection (it's not that bad, don't worry) and somehow I bet it would make it a lot worse if I came out in the morning on the negative end of stick.
I prefer not to show actual $ or anything because I'm far too paranoid. I'm going to stick to just slapping up a graph for now.

 

[JNT]

Great Idea!!!!

Starting today.... will keep you all updated!!!!

 

[pigpen02]

I think I am done for today. Here is my updated chart.

 

[Chris_TC]

Progress Update

Day 58: 669% ($13,375)
Day 59: 687% ($13,733)
Day 60: 572% ($11,439)

1412 hands. -20.61 PtBB/100. Excuse me while I go puke.

 

[SeanyJ]

It's so nice when your big hands actually hold up. I'm starting to take more time selecting my tables, I used to just join any open table I could find and I think it's paying off.

Day 0 100.00% (173.32)
Day 1 104.11% (180.44)
Day 2 113.37% (196.49)
Day 3 59.57% (103.24)
Day 5 55.70% (96.54)
Day 6 55.70% (96.54)
Day 7 101.77% (176.38)
Day 8 142.85% (247.58)
Day 9 186.81% (323.78)

 

[pantin007]

nice 9 days seanyj

 

[smd173]

1412 hands. -20.61 PtBB/100. Excuse me while I go puke.

Chris,
I know you just moved up, but when would you contemplate dropping back down? It seems your first few forays into the new level have shot your confidence.

 

[wsorbust]

Well, I'm going to quit for the night after about 3 hours of play, total. Starting the day with a decent hand, I lucked out since the other guy had nothing either, but then it was up and down from there on out.

Unable to make any type of great gains for the past 15 days or so of play, I figured I was playing in too low of stakes and decided NEEDED to take a step up and am forcing myself to. I've read you are supposed to have at least 10 times the amount of what your buying in for in your BR so as that you don't risk too much? I've been risking far far less than 10 percent when playing at a table because It seems TOO much of a risk, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe it's because I originally started without any initial deposit. But anyway, I'd say at most, the risk is 5 to 6 percent.

Nevertheless, I finished the night out ahead. It's no loss, that's for sure. Barely squeaking by my new high, so I'm ok with that. I'm thinking of trying a few tourneys again, but I'm not sure my game is up for it because it's slightly donkish at the moment. Hopefully tomorrow will be as good, but not as painful as for as poker goes. In real life it's been an adventure too 'cause I'll probably be waking up in the night another 6 times coughing, dreaming I'm choking to death. Cold weather

Note to the kids: Expired DayQuil doesn't kill you, it just doesn't work as good, even with the U.S. banned pseudoephedrine in it! I should have made meth. Keep up the good charts gals & fellers, not that I'm exactly sure there are any gals postin'.

 

[Chris_TC]

Chris,
I know you just moved up, but when would you contemplate dropping back down? It seems your first few forays into the new level have shot your confidence.

Thankfully, my confidence at the table is as big as ever. I don't think my game has suffered at all. Yesterday, I lost a $1500 pot with KK vs. AQ, and I didn't even blink. I'm starting to accept negative variance as a normal part of poker.

The plan is to move down if I drop to 10K, but I'm not exactly sure whether I'll be able to do this. Since I started $3/$6 with 30 buy-ins, I think my risk of going broke is extremely slim even without moving down.

 

[skd1337]

hey all

glad to see your all still tracking your stats. Sorry I havent been around much but I havent been playing much. Hopefully I will get back to my playing ways in the near future!!!

 

[Virv]

Day 14: 296% (830.38)
Day 15: 327% (912.74)
Day 16: 304% (853.19)

 

[Chris_TC]

Progress Update

Day 59: 687% ($13,733)
Day 60: 572% ($11,439)
Day 61: 509% ($10,181)

3337 hands. -11.8 PtBB/100. God, I'm running so hot. Maybe I can push my stats to -9.0 PtBB/100 tomorrow. That would rock.

It's creepy how it looks like no big deal in the graph when in reality I dropped 5K in three days. Great feeling really.

 

[rcmedcop1]

I have found that I have to mix it up.. take some chances and not be too tight... It seems to be working.. timing is everything and knowing opponents tendencies...

 

[Cheetah]

Progress Update

Day 59: 687% ($13,733)
Day 60: 572% ($11,439)
Day 61: 509% ($10,181)

3337 hands. -11.8 PtBB/100. God, I'm running so hot. Maybe I can push my stats to -9.0 PtBB/100 tomorrow. That would rock.

It's creepy how it looks like no big deal in the graph when in reality I dropped 5K in three days. Great feeling really.

Chris, I am glad I changed the plotting application in time.


33% loss in 3 days? Chris, I think you are playing too high for your bankroll. Either that or some extremely unlikely bad run. There is also the possibility you are not yet beating the higher level.

Just because Chris Fergusson said that 5% of your bankroll can be in play does not make it an universal truth. If anything, this is probably the upper limit and it depends very much on how a person plays and where.

I wasn't impressed by the wide swings that Chris Fergusson is having himself. They are not sustainable. If he is in fact following his rule, then the rule is no good.

As I mentioned in a post a while ago, I will be doing more detailed analysis on bankroll management. I expect that every player, given their personal performance, will have their optimal maximum % of BR at any one time on one table and a separate number for multiple tables.

Since I don't yet have this completed, I think you should consider dropping a level and building it back from there. Perhaps it would be safer to modify this rule to say 2% when going to a new level! At least until something better comes out either from my research or someone elses.

I think that the rule of 5% is (1) Upper limit (2) When going to higher levels, it should be modified to 1-2%.

 

[Chris_TC]

33% loss in 3 days? Chris, I think you are playing too high for your bankroll. Either that or some extremely unlikely bad run. There is also the possibility you are not yet beating the higher level.

I'm about to review every single $60+ pot I lost in the last few days, but I already know for a fact that the swing is not due to me not beating the level. I made a few mistakes here and there, but 90% of it is not my fault.

I know this because I'm not being outplayed. I'm not losing because people take away pots from me or get me to call with a worse hand. I'm losing because I don't get any big hands, and in the rare cases where I do get a big hand, I either don't get any action or they suck out.

The amount of donkeys at the tables is as big as ever, but you can only exploit them if you have something. Since I rarely have anything at the moment, I'd have to bluff, and they call me down with 3rd pair and the 6th nut flush on a 4-flush board, so even that isn't an option.

Since I don't yet have this completed, I think you should consider dropping a level and building it back from there. Perhaps it would be safer to modify this rule to say 2% when going to a new level! At least until something better comes out either from my research or someone elses.

I think that the rule of 5% is (1) Upper limit (2) When going to higher levels, it should be modified to 1-2%.

My rule right now is to move up when I have 30 buy-ins (15K @ $500 per buy-in) and move down when I only have 20 buy-ins (10K @ $500 per buy-in). This is a bit aggressive, but I don't think it's unsafe.

Don't get me wrong, I hate the fact that I dropped so much, but I'm not desparate or really upset either. I know that if I keep playing the way I've been, things will turn around eventually.
That's the reason why I'm not moving down yet. If I drop to 8K though, I may have to.

 

[pigpen02]

I think I had a similar run when I dropped prior to my new graph. I got more garbage hands than usual. When I got premium hands, I would either just get the blinds or have some nimrod draw out a 1, 2, or 3 outter to take a big pot. Really sucks. Yesterday was the same way, just not as much.

7 115.5%
8 117.8%
9 114.4%

 

[Chris_TC]

What's going on, folks? Why is nobody posting updates? I'm in a terrible mood, and I'd at least like to see you guys post nice looking graphs. Don't let me down!

Progress Update

Day 60: 572% ($11,439)
Day 61: 509% ($10,181)
Day 62: 440% ($8,796)

After putting some thought into it, I decided to follow my own rules and move down to 400NL right away.
It turns out that this was a good decision because I just kept on losing. Had I stuck with 600NL, I would have lost about 40% more than I did.

Needless to say that flushes suck, full houses are no good, KK, QQ, JJ, TT are -EV and two pair have about the same showdown value as 9 high.

 

[pantin007]

well ur just having a bad downswing
i think it is time to take a break and get ur mind focused on something else so when u come back u would have 100% concentration and be in a better mood

 

[Chris_TC]

Well, I sat down and came up with some bankroll theory. Maybe this is of interest to some of you.
It's a long post but it may be worth the read.

So far, my biggest problem with moving down limits was the fact that you tend to lose a lot of time. Let's say you lose 8 buy-ins (from now on referred to as "BI") at NL200, then you move down to NL100. At NL100, you lose initially, but after a while you start to win again and you make back 8 BI.

This is exactly the problem: Losing 8 BI at NL200 lost you twice as much money as you won when you made back 8 BI at NL100.

Therefore, I've developed a system that may not only help psychologically when building a bankroll but also stop you from losing so much time.

Here's an example. Let's assume a starting bankroll of $6,000, we play NL200. My old rules say that we have to move down if we hit 20 BI, i.e. $4,000. Let's say that this actually happens, we move down to NL100 and we lose another 4 BI, for a new bankroll of $3,600. We lost a total of 14 BI worth $2,400.

Now we start to win again, and we win a total of 20 BI. We need 30 BI to move up a level, i.e. $6,000 for NL200. 20 BI at NL100 is worth $2,000, so our final bankroll at the end of this example is $5,600 beause we never get to move up to NL200!
Even though we made a profit of 6 BI, our final bankroll is less than our starting bankroll.

Now we look at the same example using my 5-3-2 system. This system says that initially we will move down if we lose 5 BI.
Level 1 in our case is NL200. We will move down if we lose 5 BI. This actually happens, and we move to NL100 with $5,000 left. The level 1 baseline is $5,000 + 1 NL100 BI = $5,100.
Level 2 is NL100. Again, we will move down if we lose 5 BI. This actually hapens, and we move to NL50 with $4,500 left. The level 2 baseline is $4,500 + 1 NL50 BI = $4,550.
Level 3 is NL50. As always, we will move down if we lose 5 BI. This time, we only lose 4 BI (as in the previous example) when we finally start to win again.

As in the previous example, we will win 20 BI, however we will move up as soon as we hit the baselines!
Profit 5 BI at NL50, bankroll $4,300 -> $4,550, move up to NL100.
Profit 5.5 BI at NL100, bankroll $4,550 -> $5,100, move up to NL200.
Profit 9.5 BI at NL200, bankroll $5,100 -> $7,000

In this example, we finished with a profit of 5 full NL200 buy-ins.

Now, it is very likely that the 20 BI winning streak actually contains a few dips. This is where the 5-3-2 comes into play.
Let's say, the 20 BI winning streak looks like this: Win 6 BI, lose 3 BI, win 8 BI, lose 4 BI, win 8 BI, lose 2 BI, win 7 BI.

If we have already been to a level, then our moving down requirements go from losing 5 BI to losing 3 BI.
In our example, this means the following:
Profit 5 BI at NL50, bankroll $4,300 -> $4,550, move up to NL100
Profit 1 BI, lose 3 BI for net profit of -2 BI at NL100, bankroll $4,550 -> $4,350
Profit 7.5 BI at NL100, bankroll $4,350 -> $5,100, move up to NL200
Profit 0.5 BI, lose 3.5 BI for net profit of -3 BI at NL200, bankroll $5,100 -> 4,500
Since we've already been to this level, our moving down requirements have gone down. We must drop down if we lose 3 BI which is the case here. Our new level 1 baseline is $4,500 + 1 NL100 BI = $4,600.
Lose 0.5 BI, win 1.5 BI for net profit of 1 BI at NL100, bankroll $4,500 -> $4,600, move up to NL200
Win 6.5 BI, lose 2 BI, win 7 BI for net profit of 11.5 BI at NL200, bankroll $4,600 -> $6,900

As you can see, in all cases we keep our bankroll pretty safe, we have the psychological advantage of losing less money when we're in a losing streak, and when we win, we win back more money.
Our dropping down requirements go from 5 BI to 3 BI to 2 BI. Then they stay at 2 BI. There's virtually no chance of going broke.

I know it's a long read, and I don't know if anybody even got to this sentence, but I think it's a sound theory. It's not going to magically make you money or anything, it's just a somewhat different way of moving up and down limits.

P.S.: I forgot to mention: if you reach the inital peak bankroll (in our case $6,000), then the moving down requirements should obviously be reset to 5 BI!

 

[pigpen02]

This looks like a complicated way to justify doing what you want to do (move up sooner). If you are looking at playing as a business, this method may work well. Most people will get bogged down in the math and the simpler "move up here, move down here" rules will be better for them.