Not saying villain never takes this line with a heart draw, but: Is he going to stab the river but not the flop from in position? If he's passive, it's possible he only bets a missed draw, but I think it's likely he just gives up when he misses. If he's not overly passive then I expect him to bet the flop with hearts. So I expect a lot more weak Kx here.
Against fishes you need to 3bet this preflop for value and ainec.
As played, I guess you're beat both by villain's value range and a good chunk of his bluffing range, although I guess his range is value heavy: he can take this line with loads of crappy Kx hands.
Yeah I think the fact that they're fish is THE reason to 3bet pre. As played I think you're going to be beat almost always. Missed draws likely bet the flop (at least they do if he's aggro enough to bluff often enough for us to call the river).
Dunno, prob, since I'm about to post some shit where I got TOTALLY lost. All of these hands were in a live, private $1-$2 game. Fairly loose passive pre, but not showdown monkeys post.
Hand 1: Only my fourth hand at the table, and I had raised two hands preflop, taken one down pre, and the other on a dry, unconnected flop. Two limpers to me, and I make it $12 in the MP with KQhh. BTN, who has sounded kind of tilty about past few orbits calls, as does an EP limper. 3way to flop.
(~$35)
Flop: Q86ddx
EP checks, I bets $20, and tilty-seeming BTN quickly makes it $55. EP snap-folds, and the action is back to me. Hero?
Hero jams for about $200 total, and villain calls. We run it three times, I win 2/3 of the pot vs. his J9dd. He then complains about how bad he runs (both of the 2 times I won, the turn brought him outs).
Hand 2: Vs. same villain, but much farther along in the session. EP limps Villain limps MP, SB completes, and I check the BB with 82o. (I only noticed today that these flops where almost identical.) I'd lost a lot in the last hand, and was sitting on $110ish.
($8)
Flop: Q86r
SB checks, I check, EP limps, and villain bets $10. Folds to me. I call because villain had been betting 100% of limped pots that checked around to him if he was last or second-to-last to act.
($28)
Turn: 3o
I check, villain bets $10. I call. At this point I consider this a mistake. He was stabbing at flops, but he wasn't getting lots of calls, so I had no reason to think he was barreling lots of turns.
($48)
River: 8o
I check, villain bets $10. Hero?
Hero jams, and villain snap calls with 33.
Hand 3: This happens before Hand 2, I'm sitting on about $300, and main villain, who is aggro/solid at handreading, has $200. Villain opens UTG to $8, gets one caller in MP, and I call out of the BB with AJo.
(~$22)
Flop: KJ9r
I check, villain bets $20, MP folds, I call.
(~$60)
Turn: 8o
Action goes check, check.
(~$60)
River: 2o
I check, and villain quickly bets $50. Hero?
Hero tank-calls, knowing that villain is capable of bluffing, and that hero's weak range is fairly face up and looks vulnerable. Villain turns over K7o for top pair to win the pot.
Hand 4: This happens before Hand 2, I'm sitting on about $280, and main villain, same as from Hand 3, covers me. Two limpers, and I raise to $12 with KK. BTN (villain) calls, and one limper calls.
(~$35)
Flop: AA9r
EP checks, I check, and aggro/solid villain bets $20. EP snap-folds, and I call OOP.
(~$75)
Turn: 2o
I check, and villain bets $40. Sizing strikes me as odd, since he was tending toward bigger sizing. I call.
(~155)
River: 3o
I check, and villain bets $100 without much hesitation. Hero?
Hero tank-folds, expecting it to be more value than bluffs because of the calldown in Hand 3. Villain does not show.
Hand 1: I probably just fold. TPGK v a wide btn range seems fine, but live 1/2 raises tend to be strength more then anything. I think the bottom of btn's range is something like J10dd, 75dd, some kind of big draw + he can have 2p as well. Also, with how wet board is, I would expect villain to play sets strong too. It sucks, but I just fold. I could be swayed to jam, but I don't see villain folding some kind of nuclear draw like J10dd + villain can even call off AK. I think if we jam, were probably at best flipping v a draw? and way behind a nice chunk of hands. Obviously we don't have a ton of info on villain, so i'm not sure how much FE we actually have.That being said....
Fold> Jamming>>>>>>>Calling imo. (you obv know that though )
Hand 2:
I raise something like 35-45 and expect villain to call off with a weak queen. I don't like calling flop tbh but given your reads, it's fine imo.
Hand 3:
I mean, hand plays itself, but i'm expecting him to show up with a weak K a ton here. Something like K10, K9 and depending on villains view on you, he could even try to pot control something as strong as TPTK if he thinks your capable of taking the pot on later streets with pressure. In game, I probably fold, but I'm not super happy about it.
Hand 4:
-I probably just cbet flop to get value from 9x, all other pp's. As played, I think you did fine. Villain is pretty much only repping Ax, 99. I doubt we see anyone firing three streets w/o a nut hand at 1/2 here.
I did, yes. And I thought my line looked pretty full of shit. Fwiw I mis-typed that hand - there was a FD that bricked both turn and river. Not saying I was right, but I expected that any Qx he bet 3 streets with, he'd call the jam with.
Hand 1 looks thin, but if he is draw heavy and even slightly inclined to slow play it should be ok. Not convinced jamming better than calling as on blank turns we gii v a much weaker range, and in scary turns we have basically zero equity.
Hand 2 I'd raise but not jam river, hard to really fault it tho, don't see logic in raising flop. As its poor bluffing candidate and we block the value range we want him to have.
hand 2 just saw stack, jamming fine imo,
hand 3. i just snap fold river given our line i don't think he really bluffs enough at this sizing for it to be a profitable calls. I'm much more inclined to bet turn for value and check back rivers fwiw.
Hand 4, c/f flop. if not fold turn. even tho he is capable of bluffing i think our perceived range is absurdly capped (even if we actually turn up with AA/AK here swell.) id much rather just concede this pot because i don't expect him to bet/give up very often and i don't expect him to bet/bet/give up that often, and i don't think we can c/c c/c c/c profitably given how many Ax combos he can have.
Fwiw in hand 4 I think x/f flop is pretty terrible, but x/c flop then x/f turn is prob fine imo.
In hand 3 you want to x/c flop but lead turn? I don't really understand why. Villain is preflop aggressor, so if he's cbetting air he's just gonna fold to our turn lead, if he's not cbetting air then we're behind, so we can't lead for value, right?
Hand 1: Hard to say without a read. Probably just fold since you are OOP and without any real info. I do think his range could be pretty draw-heavy, but this spot blows without info.
Hand 2: Raise - for value. His bet sizing is so fishy. I just don't see how he has an 8x hand at all unless he hates money. It seems more like a weak Queen. 1/2 players telegraph the strength of their hands through poor bet sizing decisions all the time.
Hand 3: Call, I think. When you check the river, he knows you don't have any Kx hand and knows that his Kx (if that's what he's got) is good, so his larger bet sizing seems odd. I'd expect him to make a reasonable value bet instead of trying to push you out.
Hand 4: Fold turn. In Hand 3, he flop-bet/turn-checked/river-bet with a weak top pair. I'd expect him to check the turn with any non-Ax/99. You raised pre, and he can't possibly expect you to raise the flop if you have something like AK. The fact that he continues betting into you on the turn means he's probably strong.
Because when he sees 2 checks he's going to stab an extremely high %, but I don't think his barrel % is high at all? Could be wrong, but that's my opinion. So I think my turn call was bad.
like we probably protect our checking range by having AK/AA in our checking range here, but the problem is if this situation hasn't eventuated and he hasn't barreled into us then our KK is the top of our perceived range and we are going to get owned.
if you c/c c/c AA here it would be awesome btw. or even AK.
That's the exact line I take with AA and AK there... Except not folding the river obviously. But I guess I see what you mean. I don't really see how x/f KK can be good here though. Like you seem to be saying conflicting things. You say his turn barrel range isn't going to change much from his flop betting range? But also he doesn't give up on rivers?? So why can't I just call 3 streets? Unless you're saying he doesn't bluff enough flops IP, which I find pretty hard to agree with when PFR has checked.
How good is villain at hand reading? You said he's solid, but is he solid for 1/2 or solid in general? Even the better 1/2 players still aren't great at hand reading. Like, the best player at any given 1/2 table is still not going much further than "He raised preflop, so it's very possible he has an Ace" and will probably slow down on the turn without Ax or 99.
That's the exact line I take with AA and AK there... Except not folding the river obviously. But I guess I see what you mean. I don't really see how x/f KK can be good here though. Like you seem to be saying conflicting things. You say his turn barrel range isn't going to change much from his flop betting range? But also he doesn't give up on rivers?? So why can't I just call 3 streets? Unless you're saying he doesn't bluff enough flops IP, which I find pretty hard to agree with when PFR has checked.
My point is our range is pretty face up, and I'd rather make a slightly exploitable mistake by folding flop than make an incorrect call down especially when we have no real idea which streets he bets with his air, if we had played enough to have more reads then I could place it in our c/c range. Isn't the fish still in the hand? He probably bets most of his Ax but he still has some and wont fold the rest of his range all the time
What fish are you talking about? Fish folds to the flop bet and then we are HU. I think the point about making a small mistake vs. a big mistake is valid though. Just absurdly exploitable regardless.
ahhhh feels good finally that I am in the right thread :argh: :argh: :argh: 
