ChuckTs asked me to come by a comment on this thread. Lots of good posts in this thread and I think Fredick got to the central issue.
Cliff notes: You can only fold AK pf against the tightest of the tight. When I filter for 3/4betting pf w/ AK I’m highly profitable (and I’ve been on a sick downswing over this sample size). When I only filter for the times I get it all-in preflop I’m slightly negative. You cant evaluate a move when you ignore all the money you pick up from folds.
Those of you who believe that AK is overvalued are correct. People think that card values go something like AA,KK,QQ,AK,JJ. . .AK may rank 4th, but not for the same reasons those big pockets make up the rest of the top 5 list. AK’s strength lies not in it’s naked value, but in it’s value as a semi-
bluff. I say semi-bluff because by the time you realize you’re up against a big hand there’s enough dead money in the middle that the high drawing
equity of AK makes getting it in more profitable than folding (more profitable can still mean a negative outcome, but less negative than folding).
You’re facing a three bet. With a few exceptions some of his range is bluffs and he may even be turning medium strength hands into bluffs (AQ,KQ,99,88). You can’t let someone 3 bet you with impunity and AK is the best hand to do something about it. When you’re 4 betting with AK you don’t know if they have the upper end of their range or not. By the time you find out, there is so much dead money that you have to get it in.
Now when you go in HM and evaluate how AK does when you get it all-in pf it might show the a loss. I think over the long term it will almost certainly show a loss.
Instead of filtering AKo,AKs and for ‘All in Preflop=True’ filter for ‘Raised Preflop 3 Bet=True’ . This will include all the folds you get when you have AK and three bet. You should be profitable. If you have a large sample size and you’re negative here, I’d be surprised. You could even be slightly negative and it still be net positive because just folding is a small loss.
The second area (not included in the above filter), is where there can be some debate. When you 3 bet AK and are facing a 4 bet. Filter for this as Ako,Aks and ‘Did 3 Bet=True’-not ‘All-in=True’ for the same reasons as above. Once your opponent 4 bets, his range is much, much tighter when compared to the above situation and there's less dead money in the pot.
It comes down to a simple math exercise:
You three bet a 3.5x opener to 11x. He 4 bets to 24x. What equity do you need to get your money in with AK?
Using StoxEV’s Math tool for shoving I find that we need 44.2% equity if he’s never folding. Their range needs to be just slightly larger than TT+,AKs,AKo. Because TT=QQ against AK even a range of QQ+,AKs,AKo, only fairs slightly worst. If you believe that they only have a top 4-6 hand and are never getting out of line, then you can fold. I’ve rarely been in that situation, very few players are that tight. Especially if you 3 bet as much as I do.
I can say with almost certainty that you should never fold AK in COvsB/Blinds, BvsBlinds, SBvsBB.
I can sometimes find a fold verses a cold 4 better who is tight ( I’m on the button and I three bet an UTG opener and a tight unimaginative regular cold bets out of blinds). I’ve sometimes chickened out after three betting a tight utg opener.
To the subject of flatting 3 bets w/ AK. I imagine you could find some narrow situations where it might work, but I’m having trouble of thinking of anything concrete. You can’t flat because you’re only going to hit 1 in 3 flops. Hands that you’re flipping w/ preflop will make you fold when you miss and mostly not pay you off when you hit. Sometimes worst hands that also miss will push you off your hand. With you missing so many flops, those coin flip type opponent hands gain a big edge. Expert post flop play and really knowing your opponent could turn this profitable, but it’s not a part of my game.
4 Betting size. OOP I like to 4 bet a bit bigger to avoid flatting, something like 2.75x the 3 bet. It also discourages mid pocket pairs from shoving thinking they have some fold equity (I’d rather have them fold and give me the pot than flip for 200BB). Against someone who has a tendency to flat 4 bets I like to shove. When I have position I’ll go a bit less, like 2.25x especially against someone who I think can monkey off w/ worst aces. If they flat a lot OOP I keep it a bit bigger.