Folded KK on 9 high flop

[loafes]

Thanks. Just logged in from my phone and yeah it is small. The laptop screen might have been zoomed in making the text appear bigger, but then my text after posting still appeared bigger than others so not sure whats with that.

 

[HooDooKoo]

I'm not going to go through and comment on everything you said, as I have a busy day ahead and don't have that much time. Regardless, I appreciate your taking the time to respond/explain your thoughts.

In summary, my opinion is unchanged --- it's fold or shove. I understand your explanation about shoving the turn if no heart and getting an extra bet that way if we're ahead --- except that I don't think that villain is ever folding this hand. Not to a flop shove. Not to a turn shove. And certainly not to a river shove. His MASSIVE re-raise out of position signals that he's (mentally) committed to the hand, even if he isn't technically pot-committed yet. Assuming that I'm right, it's a clear fold or shove spot.

A couple other comments.

Against a reasonable player we are probably beaten most of the time, but I don't see many reasonable players taking this line, against an unknown I am likely to lean towards an unreasonable player. I do think that we would get a lot of calls from hands that we beat equity wise by shoving. I think we would also get folds from hands that may stab at the pot on the turn, which is better equity for us.

1. Against an unknown, you should be assuming that they play well and not the converse. In the long-run, doing so will save you money.

2. There will be no stabbing at the pot on the turn. Villain clearly thinks he's either ahead now or has a draw that makes him the favorite. His value-betting the turn --- BIG --- is a foregone conclusion if we call

I do think you are over estimating fold equity though, you can really only consider fold equity when better hands fold. I don't think many better hands will fold here. So fold equity is pretty minimal. Like you said before most of those draws are calling. It is worth considering, but I don't think is a strong reason to shove.

3. Complete agree with you here. The more I thought about this, the more I realized that villain wasn't folding no matter what --- so clearly there is no fold equity.

Correct, betting for information is over-rated. You can't always rely on the information or assimilate it in a meaningful way. Shoving doesn't give us any MORE information that we can do anything with either. Actually only calling really gives us the opportunity for more information, so I guess that is something. But I don't really care too much about betting for information. I'm not a tournament player so I don't need it.

4. I didn't say anything about betting for information. Your statement just suggests that you're underestimating the power of the button. I do agree, however, that shoving doesn't give us more information. Having said that, neither does calling. It's pretty clear from the flop action that the villain is committed. So we either decide we have an equity edge now and shove, or we fold.

Be well.

-HooDooKoo

 

[Six Hurdles]

I miss threads like this. Most of them I have seen recently have been somewhat lacking in depth. Back when FPaulson and ChuckTs, and some others, were posting all the time you could count on great threads like this on a regular basis. Good read. Lots of things to think about.

 

[Karozi615]

I agree with hoodookoo on everything except that I snapshove and show a huge profit
your like 5000 miles ahead of this guys range, AND hes short? what are you doing bro. what are you DOING
whether or not he had it doesn't matter to me, and it shouldn't to you, because sets are in this players range.
flush draws, high cards, one pairs, and other garbage also compose the majority of a players range in this spot.
If you made a soul read and it turns out they had a set, cool. but in the long run I think this is a huge leak, I think you have to move in immediately and accept it.

also ubercroz is insane - we can NEVER call here, that would be literally leaking money, move in or fold,
I choose move in

 

[Karozi615]

I think I can make a really strong case for shoving 100% of the time in this spot without hand history, i'll be back tomorrow to present that

 

[PokerNana]

I think villians raise was pot committing and he was never folding anything but air, he would call with any draws and probably top pair.

gut says he believes i wiffed flop and is pushing his 9 10 or A9 and im putting him in here , i dont care if he is pot committed ima gonna use my onetime

 

[IPlay]

I agree with hoodookoo on everything except that I snapshove and show a huge profit
your like 5000 miles ahead of this guys range, AND hes short? what are you doing bro. what are you DOING
whether or not he had it doesn't matter to me, and it shouldn't to you, because sets are in this players range.
flush draws, high cards, one pairs, and other garbage also compose the majority of a players range in this spot.
If you made a soul read and it turns out they had a set, cool. but in the long run I think this is a huge leak, I think you have to move in immediately and accept it.

also ubercroz is insane - we can NEVER call here, that would be literally leaking money, move in or fold,
I choose move in

Villian was no where near short, Idk where you got that. He started 123 BB deep and had 88 BB left behind after flop raise.

I think you over value one pair, do you instashove everytime you are raised on the flop while holding overcards? Sounds like that would be a leak to me.

I am interested in seeing your case for shoving 100% of the time.

 

[Karozi615]

wtf im such an idiot, because he had 30 and you had 100 I just assumed you guys were playing .50/1 (the min max buyins on bovada are 30/100) in which case this would have been a clear and obvious call
at 25nl that raise is absurdly large and that guy is EXTREMELY deep so everything I've said went out the window - a fold here is really standard, you might be ahead but im very comfortable with a fold in this spot.

.... lol I thought he started the hand with 30 bigs and then you folded
I play 50/1 on bodog so stack sizes were comparable, I just got mixed up that's my fault, shoving here is bad and borderline insane, calling is lame because we lose control of the hand and there are SOOO many good cards for our opponent, whats our line? check/call check/call? not sure how profitable that can be because if he sizes his bets properly were just calling off for his entire stack anyways.

 

[teepack]

Another example of how people will play any two suited cards. His play is not a sound long-term strategy, and you made a good read to get out of that hand. Although you would have had a shot at hitting either a 9 or a K for a set.

 

[Aces2w1n]

Hmmm Maybe a simple question is did you ever think to check ur turn/river fold rate?... If it was closer to 100 100 he's at a higher chance at exploiting you.


Just saying. Though you will won't listen anyways

 

[IneedMoney1y]

KK is like two blank cards this days,i dont know how many times KK lost,when its not to Ace rag its to two pair or sets.

 

[hipchip]

Good play, on laying it down, the check raise didn't get cha this time. Maybe if the bet was smaller I might have called, but seeing there was an AK on board makes it a good play for the flop re-raise giveaway. He should have smooth called it, then you might have caught up on the turn. Who knows I sometimes wonder about those uncalled hands

 

[IPlay]

Hmmm Maybe a simple question is did you ever think to check ur turn/river fold rate?... If it was closer to 100 100 he's at a higher chance at exploiting you.


Just saying. Though you will won't listen anyways

I don't know what post in this thread makes you think I am not open to taking advice from other members, but ok, nice assumption.

This is on Bovada where people can only track your stats on the current session and villain and I only had 30 hands played together so odds are, he was not exploiting me.

 

[Aces2w1n]

You think 30 isn't enough hands. But remember not everyone thinks the same it could be more than enough for the next person to quickly judge.

And yeh I know your listening I just thought it was important and got your attention. Hmmm Bovada sounds interesting though I guess the stats are still there names are always 2nd rate anyways. Though I do like hunting for steamers (I think they're people who push hard and spew) Correct me on that if I'm wrong I'm still learning but work hard at my game.

 

[Ubercroz]

30 hands is pretty much definitively not enough. Doesn't matter who you are. Those hands could have been running into someone on a hot or cold streak or who knows what. if you are making big adjustments after 30 hands you need to stop that.

How you think doesn't matter. Whether a coin lands heads or tails doesnt matter how I think about the coin.

 

[duggs]

30 hands is pretty much definitively not enough. Doesn't matter who you are. Those hands could have been running into someone on a hot or cold streak or who knows what. if you are making big adjustments after 30 hands you need to stop that.

How you think doesn't matter. Whether a coin lands heads or tails doesnt matter how I think about the coin.

why is 30 hands not enough? does that mean you don't turn your hud on until you have 100 hands?

 

[Ubercroz]

why is 30 hands not enough? does that mean you don't turn your hud on until you have 100 hands?

It is not enough to make an informed decision regarding your opponent.

Have your HUD on, but recognize that 30 hands could be anything, its within the realm of possibility and probability that some one was dealt 27o or AA for 30 hands in a row. You don't know what those numbers mean. Even at 100 hands you are not really deep enough to have gained a lot of meaningful information but you are starting to get an idea for what might be happening.

30 hands is statistically insignificant. Its not worth adjusting you play over.

 

[strodawg]

On a cash table and I had back up money I would have called cause they are pretty dominant most of the time. They do get busted so still it was a good fold if you care for your bankroll. Hold no shame pal!

 

[RodneyC86]

Maybe I'm nitty but how often are we facing a stone cold massive bluff reraise OOP on the flop here? I fold a lot here too be cause I think they will have 2p or set big majority of the time and you're not too far ahead against a semibluff if it IS happening. I suppose if your opponent loves to semi bluff anything remotely bluffable it's a shove to charge maximum and get them to put in money behind.


Then again I'm one who has fallen from 25NL and settling for grinding a pittance at 2/5NL .


What did villain have anyway!

 

[RodneyC86]

And the whole call/shove debacle.

I'm in the fold/shove camp.... Don't going call call on flop and turn require you to have a read that your opponent can operate completely bluffing with air which won't call a flop shove otherwise? Even then, how sure are you that they will barrel turn with something we beat? How do you get that read with just 30 plus hands?

 

[Ubercroz]

And the whole call/shove debacle.

I'm in the fold/shove camp.... Don't going call call on flop and turn require you to have a read that your opponent can operate completely bluffing with air which won't call a flop shove otherwise? Even then, how sure are you that they will barrel turn with something we beat? How do you get that read with just 30 plus hands?

I will make one more attempt at explaining why a call is better than a shove. Even if you don't think calling is best (which I get) then shoving is still the worst thing you can do.

What is 1 thing you normally get when you shove? Answer is fold equity!

So normally when you shove (if it is not for value) then you can expect that some of the time the hands that you beat will fold.

In this hand, against this opponent it is VERY UNLIKELY that a better hand will fold. In fact the only hands that WILL fold are hands we already beat.

So, calling is better than a shove because some of then hands that do this are worse than what we have (worse pocket pairs or misguided top pair type hands that think they are making a move).

Logically, if we shove we will NEVER get a fold from a better hand. We may get some calls from worse hands, though some of those worse hands will fold to the shove.

If we call we keep his entire range of hands intact. Against that range we are better off than we are against the range of hands that calls a shove.

While I goofed the math the first time I posted it, I did make a correction. Against the posited range of hands we are likely enough to win that this would be a profitable call.

The question of what line we take is kind of senseless. It doesn't really matter at this point. If we do not fold here we likely just call down. Calling down is not that different than shoving, except those rare times that this is a bluff will still be in the hand.

Ultimately if we shove and he calls then the range of hands we face is stronger. If we call and he bets again the range of hands we face is slightly weaker.

If that doesn't explain why a shove is the worst thing you can do, then I don't know what will.

I do understand people not accepting the calling is better than a fold (even though they are wrong).

 

[duggs]

It is not enough to make an informed decision regarding your opponent.

Have your HUD on, but recognize that 30 hands could be anything, its within the realm of possibility and probability that some one was dealt 27o or AA for 30 hands in a row. You don't know what those numbers mean. Even at 100 hands you are not really deep enough to have gained a lot of meaningful information but you are starting to get an idea for what might be happening.

30 hands is statistically insignificant. Its not worth adjusting you play over.

id argue bays law of probability says the exact opposite.

 

[Rhinelander]

Some sidetracking here... Never heard of Pokeit before. Just checked it out, watched the hand and was puzzled to see that all hole cards were revealed. How does that work??
How do they achieve that information?

 

[Ubercroz]

id argue bays law of probability says the exact opposite.

Bayes Theorem can also indicate that a coin will land heads up 80% of the time.
Sample size matter.

 

[duggs]

Statistical significance isn't a discrete thing, disregarding stats rather than placing less weight on them is a major mistake. Also for a poker decision we don't need certainty or convergence, it only needs to be better than ignoring them altogether