Folded KK on 9 high flop

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Ubercroz

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Statistical significance isn't a discrete thing, disregarding stats rather than placing less weight on them is a major mistake. Also for a poker decision we don't need certainty or convergence, it only needs to be better than ignoring them altogether

Fair enough, I just think that too many people put TOO MUCH weight on a small sample of their opponents actions.

The mistake I see is people over compensating for a single instance of action across a small sample. That overcompensation can, and often does, end up in choosing sub optimal plays in an effort to "catch" the villain.

So I suppose I would agree to an extent. Placing the correct weight on the the stats you have is the best thing, I think disregarding them is a smaller mistake than placing too much weight on them.

Your point is well taken though, even at a small sample size you should probably not ignore completely what you have seen.
 
IPlay

IPlay

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Some sidetracking here... Never heard of Pokeit before. Just checked it out, watched the hand and was puzzled to see that all hole cards were revealed. How does that work??
How do they achieve that information?

It is not Pokeit that lets you see the hole cards, that is a feature on Bovada. You can see everyones hole cards 24 hours after the hand is played.

Maybe I'm nitty but how often are we facing a stone cold massive bluff reraise OOP on the flop here? I fold a lot here too be cause I think they will have 2p or set big majority of the time and you're not too far ahead against a semibluff if it IS happening. I suppose if your opponent loves to semi bluff anything remotely bluffable it's a shove to charge maximum and get them to put in money behind.


Then again I'm one who has fallen from 25NL and settling for grinding a pittance at 2/5NL .


What did villain have anyway!

http://pokeit.co/share/kiPFQ/r
 
shanest

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good fold man! thats cool the way you can see hands 24 hours later. Did not know that about bovada
 
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letsdothis1

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im thinking he could have had over cards and the flush draw, as far as it being all in or folding at the flop i disagree, i think i call to see turn if he is on hearts and no heart comes u got position on him to check to see river to make sure draw draw card comes
this is just my thoughts on the hand and reading his hus stuff, being a good player he more than likely thru a semi bluff at you making it large due to face he had nut flush draw.... i am wondering how ofter he flat called when his BB has had a moderate raise?
 
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Arran

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I will make one more attempt at explaining why a call is better than a shove. Even if you don't think calling is best (which I get) then shoving is still the worst thing you can do.

What is 1 thing you normally get when you shove? Answer is fold equity!

So normally when you shove (if it is not for value) then you can expect that some of the time the hands that you beat will fold.

In this hand, against this opponent it is VERY UNLIKELY that a better hand will fold. In fact the only hands that WILL fold are hands we already beat.

So, calling is better than a shove because some of then hands that do this are worse than what we have (worse pocket pairs or misguided top pair type hands that think they are making a move).

Logically, if we shove we will NEVER get a fold from a better hand. We may get some calls from worse hands, though some of those worse hands will fold to the shove.

If we call we keep his entire range of hands intact. Against that range we are better off than we are against the range of hands that calls a shove.

While I goofed the math the first time I posted it, I did make a correction. Against the posited range of hands we are likely enough to win that this would be a profitable call.

The question of what line we take is kind of senseless. It doesn't really matter at this point. If we do not fold here we likely just call down. Calling down is not that different than shoving, except those rare times that this is a bluff will still be in the hand.

Ultimately if we shove and he calls then the range of hands we face is stronger. If we call and he bets again the range of hands we face is slightly weaker.

If that doesn't explain why a shove is the worst thing you can do, then I don't know what will.

I do understand people not accepting the calling is better than a fold (even though they are wrong).

Agreed. Simple as
 
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HooDooKoo

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