OK, several issues need clarification here.
2. We don't beat the villain's whole range. We beat a large segment of his range, but not his whole range. Again, big difference.
When I say his whole range, I mean against the entirety of his range, not every single holding contained within that range. We have equity, our hand against his range of hands.
3. I don't give a crap about the villain's range at this point. If he's a reasonable player that's raised me OOP, he probably has me crushed or a monster draw (one where he is the favorite) --- which is why I, personally, fold here. If villain is a shitty player raising OOP on a draw (flush, straight, or combo), he likely calls a shove with said draw --- likely +EV for HERO. Further, many players will call a shove here with strong 9X combos (single-pair) --- definitely +EV for HERO. So while villain certainly calls a shove with hands that have HERO crushed (any set or two pair), he also likely calls a shove with lots of combo draws that are flips and some draws that favor HERO substantially --- and that's ignoring the 9x and possible TT and JJ that HERO crushes. I think you'd be shocked how much equity HERO has against the full range of hands that call a shove --- and shoving provides additional fold equity.
I agree that this is very villain dependent, and I have probably over stated the case for calling- but I do think it is better than a shove. Though, his range should be vitally important, as it informs the rest of what we decide to do in this hand. And if you don't care about his range, then what information could you be looking for later.
Against a reasonable player we are probably beaten most of the time, but I don't see many reasonable players taking this line, against an unknown I am likely to lean towards an unreasonable player. I do think that we would get a lot of calls from hands that we beat equity wise by shoving. I think we would also get folds from hands that may stab at the pot on the turn, which is better equity for us. By keeping in all of the potential hands we have a better chance at making money - if that is the route that we decide to take. I would like to say my analysis of calling here is based upon the range of hands the OP listed as likely hands. This is not the range of hands I would necessarily put the villain on. But based on those hands, it is a +EV move to call.
While shoving will give us some value, it shifts his range to limit a number of single pair hands that are raising for god knows why (shitty players likely) that won't call a shove. They will make that bet again on the turn though. And if our alternative is to shove.... well if we get one more bet by a weaker holding then it makes our losses when we get called and lose more palatable, and evens out our variance.
I do think you are over estimating fold equity though, you can really only consider fold equity when better hands fold. I don't think many better hands will fold here. So fold equity is pretty minimal. Like you said before most of those draws are calling. It is worth considering, but I don't think is a strong reason to shove.
4. What options do we have if we call?
Essentially fold or shove. We do get to see what he does depending on the card.
5. Villain's range on the flop was like 45 hands. If that's all the range definition you need then you're a far better --- or far worse --- player than I am.
6. Information isn't overrated or position wouldn't be so important.
Correct, betting for information is over-rated. You can't always rely on the information or assimilate it in a meaningful way. Shoving doesn't give us any MORE information that we can do anything with either. Actually only calling really gives us the opportunity for more information, so I guess that is something. But I don't really care too much about betting for information. I'm not a tournament player so I don't need it.
7. Given the villain's flop raise and sizing, he is DEFINITELY betting no matter what card turns. After a flop call by HERO, there is $18 in the pot and villain has $22 behind. Villain will making a large turn bet ($12 minimum) and pot commit himself. The only card that makes us feel any better about our hand is a king (two of them), while about 27 cards (any ace, any heart, cards that make straights, and any board pair) are scary (to differing degrees) for us. So basically, you're advocating calling $6 in a situation where almost 60% of the cards are scary and even with a blank we might still be losing --- and all this KNOWING that villain is going to make a big bet on the turn. How does this make ANY sense at all?
Excellent point. We do have a lot of scary cards out there. I was discounting A's as something to really fret about based off of bet sizing, but it is something to be worried about. A board pair doesn't actually change anything that much. It only makes a real meaningful difference in hands that were 1 pair hands, so its hard to stress over those, because sometimes those cards made us into the winning hand. Your point still stands that there are a lot of bad cards to come on the turn. The most likely card of concern is a heart, its the most likely holding. A non heart card comes and I feel fine shoving that turn. heart comes, well probably a fold. You saved yourself some money.
The above paragraph should make it very clear, even to someone that originally thought that calling the flop is the right play, that the flop is SHOVE or FOLD. End of story.
I still think shove is the worst option. though I do have a hard time disagreeing with a fold.
9. An OOP flop-raise, particularly a raise of this size, is not likely to be a bluff. It could be a semi-bluff with a strong draw, but it is almost never a bluff.
Thats true- never really pure air. I have seen this from weak players with a single pair though, which could be a mistaken value bet, but its effectively a bluff. Shouldn't be THAT many single pair type hands on this board, but if the villain is loose it is hard to discount.
10. How deep HERO is is irrelevant. The effective stack in this hand 123 BBs, and that is all that matters.
Fully aware of this, thats why I was saying that they had nearly a full stack behind after the flop call, even though the hero has substantially more. Its deep enough for our purposes though. We can still get away even if he is committed.
11. I handled all this above. You have radically understated the range of hands that call a shove here. That is, you have narrowed the shove calling range to only hands that have us crushed --- and that just plain isn't the case.
I didn't intend to radically understate them. I was trying to be exact. most of the hands that call (the range of hands that call) is strong. Or at least stronger than the range of hands that will bet into us on the turn. I don't think that we are crushed by that range, we are just worse off against it.
13. Please don't make it sound like I'm actually advocating shoving here. I made it very clear that I would fold in this spot and look for a better one. For the players that can't/won't fold here, though, I advocate shoving because calling the flop costs $6 for a tiny shot at material hand improvement and doesn't help narrow the villains range at all.
Again, fair point - I was not intending to make that the crux of my argument. You seemed to be advocating a fold. Again, not too far off from me on that. I just think the shove is the worst move you can make here, not the second best move.
Essentially I think calling is better because it will allow me to maximize my winnings and minimize my losses.
Let me put it like this: Suppose we intend to get all of our chips in the middle of this hand, for whatever reason we have predestined our selves to do that.
Given that our chips will be entering the pot, how do we give ourselves the best chance of making the most money when that is our ultimate course of action?
If we call the flop with the intent to shove the turn, we have a similar fold equity (unless we are doing this into made hands) and we have captured a bet from the weaker hands that some percentage of the time would have folded on the flop.
So we make more money from a fold on the turn and we don't really damage our equity that much.
Now lets add in that some of the time when the turn comes and it is a card that potentially beats us. Well we fold some of the time then. That means we lose less by calling than we would by shoving in that instance.
Calling essentially gives us more money from the hands we beat and an opportunity to fold to the hands we lose to.
All that said -I don't mind a fold here either.
