Well ev of folding is 0 so that means if I even have slight positive ev its a profit making decision. At every street the pot sized bet represents less than the 40% equity you have in the pot so yes call all the way. The ev correct me if I am wrong would be7% of the pot since you are 7% ahead of all the hands he is playing for these odds so by the river your long term positive ev is $19.90 dollars on average everytime this is played. Is that right?
Or is it the full 40% of the pot in which case the positive ev would be 108?
Yes, the EV of folding is
0 so if you were to fold every time to a bet on the flop, you would end up with the Expected Stack Size of
$130.
Now, multistreet EV calculations are pain in the *ss, because you have to account for EVs of future actions/streets, and that's why I didn't ask eg: for the EV of a turn call
Instead, you can just look at the EV of the whole "calldown strategy" like this:
The pot on the river, after you make the calldown, will be
$270. Because you always have 40% pot equity, you own 40% of that pot, which is
$108. And that's the amount which you will end up on average with, after making that calldown. Clearly, $108 is lower (you're losing $130 - $108 =
$22 everytime you make that calldown) than $130 (after folding) and because we always want to pick strategies with the highest EVs - you should fold.
You can also just use a "regular" EV equation:
Ambur said:
Answer:
ev=(140*0,4)-(130*0,6)=-22$
It is not profitable!
So...it turns out you don't actually have enough equity to even get back your own money, which you're putting into the pot on each street. Because you would like to have at least $130 from the final pot on the river, you should have at least: $130/$270 =
48% equity to make that calldown.
So yea, I hope it was an interesting assignment and some of you guys learnt something new (and practical!) about making that kind of "light-calldowns"
Oh and just to prove that I'm not bulls**ting you, here is a screenshot from CREV which simulates such a calldown. Numbers are slightly off because MP's range has actually 42.9% equity. CREV displays EVs for each action (decision point) but it also accounts for future actions/streets EVs (so turn EV WILL depend on your river strategy). So...the river call is indeed +EV, but if you look at the flop EV (your entire strategy)...it's negative. And close to our -$22!
