I would absolutely love to take part in this, but my math is baaaaaaaaaaaaad, I mean reallllly baaaaaaaaaaaaaaad.
Wish I wasn't at the back at the queue when the brains were given out
I hope that you all find the book more useful than I did. I had no trouble with the math but think there's almost nothing of value in the book.
-HooDooKoo
we should probably not our overall EV in this game is very very high. EV of bluffing seems small compared to EV of having higher cards. but a 17% edge on a pot is substantial in poker
Which book would you recommend if not this one. Moshmans The Math of Holdem ??
I've always liked: Owen Gaines - "Poker math that matters". I'm not a math guy, though.
Is Flopping the FLushIt was just a question on how we got to 1% on probabilities of flopping a flush... But i think i got it.
Im just going to continue reading and skip through anything I don't understand, for now.
Tks
I've always liked: Owen Gaines - "Poker math that matters". I'm not a math guy, though.
You are not a math guy??
shit, then I am fkd.....
You are not a math guy??
shit, then I am fkd.....
maybe we should have started on that one LOL, as the Bill Chen one looks really hard
Yes, that is correct.Is Flopping the FLush
11/50 * 10/49 * 9/48 = 0.008418367
= 0.84% _
LOL, like the blind leading the blind.
To me sometimes some of the maths stuff is like reading a sentence in a foreign language, you know some of the words and try and guess what they are on about
I've always liked: Owen Gaines - "Poker math that matters". I'm not a math guy, though.
maybe I have a misprint in my version (1/16) it says re dice game
You get 5 to 1 and dive roll has higher variamce than flipping coin.
1/16 of the time, you get a payout that is 5 units away from the expectation, while 5/6 of the time you get a payout that is only 1 unit away from the expectation.
When it says expectation, is that 6 and should the paragraph above be the other way round, i.e. 1/6 of the time you win so why is it 5 units away from expectation
or is expectation 1, then the above makes sense, 1/6 your payout is 6 so is 5 away from 1 and 5/6 your payout is 0 so 1 away
Thanks got thrown by the 1/16 at first then when it said payout is 5 away from expectation. I thought Payout was 6.Naah, the expectation (EV) is 0. Its a fair die roll. Variance describes how far a set of numbers can be spread out from the expectation (EV; they also use the term: mean). In a die roll example, you can either win 5 (1/6 of time) or lose 1 (5/6 of time). So the variance is: 5.
You're already in Chapter 2?
Great Stuff Martin
(This is helping me)
I take it the old school way of checking medium strength hands on the river is based on this math?
So I presume against weaker players in modern day micro stakes games who can't fold or fold less readily, that betting medium strength hands for thiiiin value is correct because they call with their weaker hands too much thus making it a higher EV for us to bet our medium hands?
Thanks got thrown by the 1/16 at first then when it said payout is 5 away from expectation. I thought Payout was 6.
When you bet at odds of 5 to 1 you get 6 back including your stake so that would be 6 away from Expectation/EV.
So on this occasion does payout mean just the winnings.
If payout was 6, your EV would be: -1 * (5/6) + 6 * (1/6) = 0.16 so you would actually "make" money on it.
Look at it that way: you have $6. You bet 5 times $1 which you lose (5/6 of the time) so your net win is -$5. Then you bet your last $1 and ... you win $5 (1/6 of the time) so now your net win is $0 and you're back to your starting $6. The expectation (mean) was always $0 but the furthest you got from it, was with $5 (Variance).
[/U]Couldn't you just use =(100*7/12)-(100*5/12) as you dont need to calulate the other part as everything above 9 calls and we lose to them all.
Correct.[..]
Amount of hands we beat is that just for the hands when we are called as it looks like you used that in the calculation or hands we beat i.e. 12 if we have an Ace
I just created a simple table and for each card in our range, I was basically changing the amount of cards in Villian's range which: fold and win/lose when called (they all sum up to 12) and then just copying the EV into the separate table. Same goes with <Check>.I actually tried to recreate your table using EV calculations in Excel.