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Daithi
Rock Star
Silver Level
Okay, I think that this thread has been beneficial for you as much as for me. You have helped me identify a mistake in my calculation, but you weren't right either.
Your "(20.4x0.38)-6.6=7.7-6.6=1.1$ev" has absolutely nothing to do with the proper EV equation EV = (%W * $W) – (%L * $L).
You still wouldn't agree with it and went on arguing "Youre investing 6.6 every time not 62% of the time..." Anyway, now you know what the proper way for calculating EV is. That's lesson for you.
My lesson is that I was using the right equation but put in a wrong value $W, it should have excluded my bet, but I had included my bet in as well.
Since the pot is 7.20 and effective stack is 6.60. The pot will be 13.80 when he calls excluding my bet.
.38 * 13.80= 5.244
.62 * -6.60= -4.092
EV= + 1.152
So considering rake, etc it is a bad move. This is the first time I ever did that, because numbers (wrongly calculated) told me so.
Also have to concede a point to Starting At The Bottom that against the range he mentioned it is even worse. +EV 0.132
So thanks for the reply. It helped me a good bit on the learning curve. I think you have learned something too.
DrazaFFT
public static void
Bronze Level
Dude, good to known that we're finally agree on something but you need to understand this: if you're using the whole pot in calc you need to substract your bet from your equity times total pot
TPot x EQ - bet
the equation is right and it worked, i got the same result using both equations...
if you're using the money won instead of total pot then you multiply money won with equity and substtract that with 1-Eq (PERCENTAGE YOU LOSE) times your bet so there yo got
EV= ($W x Eq)-((1-Eq )x bet)
From this you can understand that %W is actually an equity and 1-Eq is %L or percentage we lose...
I kept saying the same thing over and over but you just wont pay attention.
You're right again tho, considering the rake which we dont include , skippint the fold equity which we can also count as 0 and dont make much mistake, this donk shove on Kxx board in a 4bet pot is a bad move against a range that only consits of TPTK and OP, considering that such range can have a blocker to FD which lower our equity, not to mention questionable c4b oop pre... those spots are the book example of what you shoud avoid in order to beat the micros, it is good that youre trying to do the math and trying to learn and improve but we lost the whole day to show you that your calc is wrong and bet we got after 24hours is "ok mine is wrong but your was wrong too " which was also wrong statement, if you're just focus on right things instead of trying to justify bad plays with wrong calc and attacking everyone who tried to help is a wrong way to chanel your energy...
TPot x EQ - bet
the equation is right and it worked, i got the same result using both equations...
if you're using the money won instead of total pot then you multiply money won with equity and substtract that with 1-Eq (PERCENTAGE YOU LOSE) times your bet so there yo got
EV= ($W x Eq)-((1-Eq )x bet)
From this you can understand that %W is actually an equity and 1-Eq is %L or percentage we lose...
I kept saying the same thing over and over but you just wont pay attention.
You're right again tho, considering the rake which we dont include , skippint the fold equity which we can also count as 0 and dont make much mistake, this donk shove on Kxx board in a 4bet pot is a bad move against a range that only consits of TPTK and OP, considering that such range can have a blocker to FD which lower our equity, not to mention questionable c4b oop pre... those spots are the book example of what you shoud avoid in order to beat the micros, it is good that youre trying to do the math and trying to learn and improve but we lost the whole day to show you that your calc is wrong and bet we got after 24hours is "ok mine is wrong but your was wrong too " which was also wrong statement, if you're just focus on right things instead of trying to justify bad plays with wrong calc and attacking everyone who tried to help is a wrong way to chanel your energy...
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Daithi
Rock Star
Silver Level
I see your equation works also.
This whole thing is not entirely my fault however!
This was the 1st thing you said after stating that the Replayer is not working for you and that you will have a look later.
This is a part of the originally presented equation, and in this part I did not make a mistake. You could have said that the Equation is fine but I needed to deduct my bet from the $W. Done! Or you could have explained that there is another way of calculation the same thing. But you said it was wrong and tried to replace it with your one, without stating that both are correct. So we could have saved ourselves a day.
Besides I don't understand why you making this emotional and personal. We tried to empirically solve a problem and we did eventually. There were some misunderstandings (not only from my part) due to which this dragged along longer than it should have. But hey, we solved it. This will serve other people too. And sorry for saying your equation did not work, when it does. It did not correlate with my result. but hey you said my one did not work either until I led you to the article. My 2c are you didn't know about the one either.
But hey. Thanks for helping with this and everyone involved. Thanks Starting at the Bottom too. Again, it isn't personal, I just wanted to see it empirically which he could not produce. I take a point from him about the Range and calling 4bet OOP.
Everyone just chillout now
DontAskWh
Visionary
Silver Level
I think you played very bad preflop , because the guy raise 3 blinds , and another call , and you're decided to re-raise with just AQ I think call is very good here , and even if you raise , and the guy is re-raise you , and you decided to call very bad call , because his re-raise looks like KK or AA , and I think fold was better.
DrazaFFT
public static void
Bronze Level
To be fair i knew about that article for a long time, i also knew about the equation in that article, i never used simply cuz its much easier and faster to do the one with wjole pot, i have been doing that for some time when i get to the spots where i think that i pushed wrong so i do the calc and see so next time im in a same situation i know that its a +ev or not and play, i have been also using the fold equity in the calculation which also helps out oursituation when we are behind against his stackoff range. In thia hand we cant include FE cuz most of the time here he wont fold any of his rangr but if by any cnance his range was wider (3bet pot) then we could say he folds like 40% of his range bla bla bla and use that in calc... We can do that too if youre interested, we just nees to find the right hand to do it, so post hands and if you wany i can involve, it is a great feeling to train a brain with poker math
I would post hands too but for some reason people dont wanna involve in 40bb game so i rarely get feedback beside buyin full
I would post hands too but for some reason people dont wanna involve in 40bb game so i rarely get feedback beside buyin full
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Daithi
Rock Star
Silver Level
Cool, I would be interested in FE calculations too. You are saying that you've been using this equation for a long time. Does it mean that you don't use Pot odds equation at all? It was actually pot odds equation that I had used initially. I counted my Outs and got around 36%. I calculated the pot Odds and it required only 32% equity. In other words I needed 1.6:1 and I was getting 2.09:1
teepack
Legend
Bronze Level
If you really want feedback, this is a great place. If you just want people to say you played the hand great and/or you're just going to refute anybody's attempt at providing you a different view, this is not the place to be.
Your 4-bet was probably sized too large and you should have heard massive warning bells when he 5-bet you. Not really sure why you shoved the flop at all. But otherwise, well done.
Your 4-bet was probably sized too large and you should have heard massive warning bells when he 5-bet you. Not really sure why you shoved the flop at all. But otherwise, well done.
DrazaFFT
public static void
Bronze Level
Honestly this equation that im using i've learned from CC member LD1977, till this day i havent found any poker related resource that teaches this equation si it might be that he adopted the original one (one with money won) ,o this to be faster to use, it is unbelievable how good mathematician he is... So this is the ev calculation that uses your equity pot size and bet size, you can use it when you bet and when you call, equity in this hand i used yours, havent run equilab cuz as i said i dont have a pc here and everything i do is from my phone. You can count your outs and do the rule of 4 and get pretty accurate results, rule of 4 strats to be wrong with 15+ outs but its adjustable too. So you can do outs thing or you can memorise situation and learn what is your equity on diferent boards with diferent hand against different ranges and use them at the table later knowing were you at the ev spot or not. I guess that if you're super fast with calculations you can look at the whole pot divide it with your equity and if the num is greater than bet size youre +ev i haven't try it even once but after this post ill try to do that while im playing when i get back to the tables.
You could check the thread -ev if you want, its in my sig, its bit old and mostly abandoned but there you can see my process of learning and you can see some awesome comments on my hands by LD and some other great players, also you can see lot of math there too...
About adding FE in the calculation, main formula is the same but your start is different, you take you opponent range and asume what % of the range he will fold and what percent he will stackoff with, i use equilab to do this. Now we asume that he will fold 60% of his range to your bet so you will win unprotected pot 60% of the time, unprotected pot is pot before your bet. Now you run the equilab against the remaining part of his range and use that equity as your stackoff equity.,do the ev calc but know that you only stackoff 40% of the time so you actually need to multiply the ev equation bt .40 so the total equation looks like this
EV=(fold percentage)x(unprotected pot)+((stackoff percentage)x((equity x total pot)-your bet)))
Hope this isnt confusing and i hope i havent missed something, ill re read the post later and edit if something doesn't make sense...
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Daithi
Rock Star
Silver Level
There was no 5 bet. I 3bet, he 4bets, I call.
You are very mistaken about me and the reason I put up this hand. It was for educational purposes, not egeoistic. When I refuted someone's view I always showed my rationale for my stance, not some ad hominem.
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Daithi
Rock Star
Silver Level
It is confusing haha. No, a great post. I will definitely try to play around with the numbers. I will skip the FE for now I'd say, so I can work more and more efficiently on +EV. I think FE is much less imoortant. Also I play 100bb. I was reading Harrington on Cash Games last night and he said that shoving allin is best when 40-60 deep. 100bb may be too costly.
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Daithi
Rock Star
Silver Level
I thought it was a 4bet lite.
As for the Flop, I had explained why I shoved on the Flop. Based on premise that was a 4bet lite to induce a fold while still having +EV. We have established now that the EV was breakeven at best.
TimovieMan
Legend
Silver Level
Since we're OOP vs an UTG opener, I could see a call preflop. That said, I'm perfectly ok with the squeeze, and would do so myself.
Sizing's reasonable if a bit big. 1.20$ would probably be enough.
Once he 4-bets you, I think his range is exactly QQ+/AK which has you crushed. Fold.
As played, shoving the flop only folds out QQ. Everything else calls.
Basically he has 9 combos of AK, 3 combos of AA, 3 combos of KK and 3 combos of QQ.
That gives us 16.67% FE and 34.57% pot equity if called.
0.1667 * 7.20 = 1.20
0.8333 * 0.3457 * 13.80 = 3.98
0.8333 * 0.6543 * -6.60 = -3.60
Gives us +1.58 EV.
This is Stars, right. So rake is 4.5% rounded to the even number.
Do they rake only the existing pot if you bet and get a fold, or does your bet get raked as well? Makes a huge difference.
Adjusted for rake:
0.1667 * 6.88 = 1.15
0.8333 * 0.3457 * 13.18 = 3.80
0.8333 * 0.6543 * -6.60 = -3.60
Gives us +1.35 EV.
That actually makes the flop shove +EV. But the mistake was preflop, imo.
Any mistakes in reasoning / calculations?
Keen on learning as well...
Sizing's reasonable if a bit big. 1.20$ would probably be enough.
Once he 4-bets you, I think his range is exactly QQ+/AK which has you crushed. Fold.
As played, shoving the flop only folds out QQ. Everything else calls.
Basically he has 9 combos of AK, 3 combos of AA, 3 combos of KK and 3 combos of QQ.
That gives us 16.67% FE and 34.57% pot equity if called.
0.1667 * 7.20 = 1.20
0.8333 * 0.3457 * 13.80 = 3.98
0.8333 * 0.6543 * -6.60 = -3.60
Gives us +1.58 EV.
This is Stars, right. So rake is 4.5% rounded to the even number.
Do they rake only the existing pot if you bet and get a fold, or does your bet get raked as well? Makes a huge difference.
Adjusted for rake:
0.1667 * 6.88 = 1.15
0.8333 * 0.3457 * 13.18 = 3.80
0.8333 * 0.6543 * -6.60 = -3.60
Gives us +1.35 EV.
That actually makes the flop shove +EV. But the mistake was preflop, imo.
Any mistakes in reasoning / calculations?
Keen on learning as well...
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Daithi
Rock Star
Silver Level
Hi, thanks for the reply. It was on Ipoker. They rake quite heavy actually.
I like your analysis because it conveys my point of view pretty much. The guys had very high 4bet profile. I know I had like 500 hands on him, for 4bet stats you need a big sample, but hey it tells you something too. For that reason I thought his range was wider.
But I mean point taken. I guess I'll be flatting more OOP.
But my main point was the posflop play with that particular board. My EV+ was so marginal that it wasn't worth it. On the other hand in conjuction with his high 4betting profile and Fold equity. I don't know. It was a very risky play. He was lucky he had a Monster preflop in combination with his profile.
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Daithi
Rock Star
Silver Level
I don't recall a 5bet
TimovieMan
Legend
Silver Level
Semantics. You know what he meant. Just answer.
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Daithi
Rock Star
Silver Level
Semantics. You know what he meant. Just answer.
No, it's not semantics. Semantics would argue a proper definition and naming, or conflict of definitions. 5 bet is completely different from 4 bet in poker, no room for semantics in this one.
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Daithi
Rock Star
Silver Level
I wanted to squeeze and protect the value of my hand facing 1 opponent.
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Daithi
Rock Star
Silver Level
Well I was the underdog. The guys do have a point. I should have kept it smaller OOP. I commited myself.