$25NL flopped set.

Munchrs

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Vilian is 11/11/apparently infinte AF. over 51 hands.
What is our flop play to maximize the value?
What line do we follow after the flop, on the turn and river?

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (7 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)
saw flop|saw showdown
UTG ($35.05)
MP1 ($5.15)
MP2 ($25)
Hero ($23.45)
Button ($17.75)
SB ($8.05)
BB ($15.25)
Preflop: Hero is CO with
2d.gif
,
2c.gif
.
1 fold, MP1 calls $0.25, MP2 raises to $1.25, Hero calls $1.25, 3 folds, MP1 folds.
Flop: ($3.10)
ah.gif
,
2h.gif
,
js.gif
(2 players)
MP2 bets $1.75, Hero?
 
Last edited:
WVHillbilly

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Raise to $5 and hope he doesn't have KK.
 
pokerace3454

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ok you floped a set of twos and i would just call
 
ChuckTs

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Pop it up, this is a pretty good flop for our hand and we want to build the pot vs an ace. His c-bet does look a little weak (QQ/KK?) but we've gotta raise this. There are a few draws out there too.

ok you floped a set of twos and i would just call

Please no one-liners; give some reasoning.
 
tenbob

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We can always take the call line here and see what he does on the turn. 11/11/INF is pretty aggressive. Gotta think that raising here pushes out KK/QQ type hands, I say see if he double barrels it on the turn.
 
ChuckTs

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Also, what are our stats/image?

If we rarely bluff-raise/raise weak top pairs for balance then calling is a lot more viable, whereas if we've been aggressive lately we can pop it up and possibly even get action from those QQ/KK hands.
 
Munchrs

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Also, what are our stats/image?

If we rarely bluff-raise/raise weak top pairs for balance then calling is a lot more viable, whereas if we've been aggressive lately we can pop it up and possibly even get action from those QQ/KK hands.

Ive been TAG. Havnt done much in the way of anything apart from folding. At this particular table im guessing my stats were around 16/8/2-3.
 
SavagePenguin

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I'd re-raise. If he has K/K or Q/Q you wouldn't get a lot of action anyway. But if he has A/J or A/K you could get substantially more.

I wouldn't even criticize a shove right there, as it would appear like a "I have an Ace but no hearts" sort of panic move that noobs often make, and might entice a call. (IE, a shove appears weaker than a series of calls)
 
WVHillbilly

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To clarify I'm not worried about a heart draw. An 11/11's probably not on a couple suited cards without the A. I'm raising here to get a little more $$ in the pot to make it harder for him to get away from his TPTK hands. If another heart falls on the turn it could kill our action, as well as give the single heart hands an out to beat us on the river, so build the pot now.
 
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Bentheman87

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Not that you were asking, but ya shoulda folded 22 preflop. And it looks like he has an Ace so raise now, if he has AK AQ or AJ you could get your whole stack in here since he'll probably play back.
 
tenbob

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Not that you were asking, but ya shoulda folded 22 preflop. And it looks like he has an Ace so raise now, if he has AK AQ or AJ you could get your whole stack in here since he'll probably play back.

The answer why you should NEVER fold 22 pre-flop in these situations is in your own post.
 
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Bentheman87

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"The answer why you should NEVER fold 22 pre-flop in these situations is in your own post."

But with these small pairs basically the only way to win is flopping a set which only happens less than 15% of the time. You're putting in 5 big blinds where the only way you can continue postflop is getting a set. With medium pairs like 77 - JJ you can often win without flopping a set. If this were a big multiway pot and you were in late position with a small pair then calling a big raise pf would make more sense.
 
WVHillbilly

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Not that you were asking, but ya shoulda folded 22 preflop. And it looks like he has an Ace so raise now, if he has AK AQ or AJ you could get your whole stack in here since he'll probably play back.

Ben, you know better than that. He's getting better than 12:1 implied odds (and since you posted in the other thread about this you should know that's what he needs). This is the dream scenario and the reason you play small pps. Ideally you want to hit your set and have an A on board and take your opponents entire stack.
 
WVHillbilly

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"The answer why you should NEVER fold 22 pre-flop in these situations is in your own post."

But with these small pairs basically the only way to win is flopping a set which only happens less than 15% of the time. You're putting in 5 big blinds where the only way you can continue postflop is getting a set. With medium pairs like 77 - JJ you can often win without flopping a set. If this were a big multiway pot and you were in late position with a small pair then calling a big raise pf would make more sense.

And that's why they're so easy to play. Hit your set or fold. No guessing as to whether you're still in front, just hit or fold.
 
zachvac

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But with these small pairs basically the only way to win is flopping a set which only happens less than 15% of the time. You're putting in 5 big blinds where the only way you can continue postflop is getting a set. With medium pairs like 77 - JJ you can often win without flopping a set. If this were a big multiway pot and you were in late position with a small pair then calling a big raise pf would make more sense.


Do you ever play 77 thinking you could be good if you don't flop your set? I am never playing 77 with the thought that I'm good if I miss a set postflop (well not never, if it's limped and there's only one opponent and undercards come, and if one opponent limped and overcards I'll just bet and most of the time take it down, but I mean when we get some action, which is where the money is anyway). You want to play low pocket pairs for set value, WVhillbilly covered this.
 
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baconn

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reraise and hope for no hearts, looks like a weak ace
 
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Bentheman87

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"Do you ever play 77 thinking you could be good if you don't flop your set? I am never playing 77 with the thought that I'm good if I miss a set postflop (well not never, if it's limped and there's only one opponent and undercards come, and if one opponent limped and overcards I'll just bet and most of the time take it down, but I mean when we get some action, which is where the money is anyway). You want to play low pocket pairs for set value, WVhillbilly covered this."

Yea, very often if I'm up against only 1 or 2 opponents. I feel pretty comfortable with 77 and a flop of 9 6 2. I'm not going to get married to the hand of course. Remember Just because someone raised preflop doesn't mean he'll always have an overpair. He could have a pair smaller than 7s or he could have two high cards.
 
Four Dogs

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It's fine to just call HU with any pair. Those who think small pairs are unplayable after the flop need to grow a pair themselves. The problem with small pairs post flop is ONLY one of confidence, you just don't know where you stand with 2 or 3 overcards but the ugly truth is that even with dueces you're probably still ahead.

The reason why you should call here is 3 fold.

First, Implied odds. With dueces, there is no way you're going to lose alot of money. Any action at all and it's an easy laydown. But you can potentially win a huge pot. The example above is such a case. But this alone is not reason enough to call.

Secondly, you're in position against a tight albeit aggressive player who's stats suggest that he's betting a strong hand, probably 2 high cards, or a high pair. You know more about the nature of his hand then he knows of yours. You've most likely got the best hand before the flop and after. The way to play this is to call preflop and bet if checked to post flop. If he calls, check it down if possible but don't invest anymore. Unless he connects in some way he'll be happy to check AK down as well.

Third. In this case, villain has an infinite AF. This isn't as strange as it may seem. He's playing bet or fold. In order to maintain the infinite AG he has only 4 possible plays. Check, bet, raise or fold, but NEVER call. If he misses the flop, which he probably will, he will either CB or check. If he bets then the dueces fold, if he checks, he will NOT be able to just call. In order to maintain an infinite AF, he will have to reraise or fold and it won't matter whether your holding 22 or 72. He may or may not rigidly adhere to bet or fold but chances are good he will.
 
Munchrs

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Not that you were asking, but ya shoulda folded 22 preflop. And it looks like he has an Ace so raise now, if he has AK AQ or AJ you could get your whole stack in here since he'll probably play back.

Set mining. Advanced concept IMNVHO.
Here
Here
and Here

I wouldn't even criticize a shove right there, as it would appear like a "I have an Ace but no hearts" sort of panic move that noobs often make, and might entice a call. (IE, a shove appears weaker than a series of calls)

1) im not a noob.
2) if he holds KK/QQ we want him to double barell it therefore maximizing profit.
3) I doubt he is calling a shove into a $6 pot unless he holds AJ which is already unlikely because of his VPIP although possible.

Third. In this case, villain has an infinite AF. This isn't as strange as it may seem. He's playing bet or fold. In order to maintain the infinite AG he has only 4 possible plays. Check, bet, raise or fold, but NEVER call. If he misses the flop, which he probably will, he will either CB or check. If he bets then the dueces fold, if he checks, he will NOT be able to just call. In order to maintain an infinite AF, he will have to reraise or fold and it won't matter whether your holding 22 or 72. He may or may not rigidly adhere to bet or fold but chances are good he will.

huh, so that is how he has such a strange AF. Therefor my best play would be a call on the flop because if i raise him then he will likely fold due to his very limited range. AJ+/QQ/KK-aces are excluded because he is c-betting sooo weak its just unrealistic and im not folding a set here, ever.

If he holds QQ/KK he will likely fold to a reraise as he isnt a donk and realises any A beats him. 90/10 in favour of fold.

If he holds AQ, he will probably fold it otherwise a re-raise which is good :D. 60/40 in folds favour.

I think AJ is unlkely because of his VPIP, but possible. almost deffinate get his stack if he has AJ. 90/10 in favour of him re-raising

If he has AK then i expect to be re-raised, i call and get his stack on the turn. 90/10 in favour of re-raise.

So theres 5 hands and 2 is almost definate stack IMNVHO. So to work out chance of a re-raise vs a fold(calling is not option see quote above). We calculate the re-raise(or fold, both calculated the smae way) % by adding all 5 of them together then dividing by 500(100 for each hand in his range).

Chance of re-raise:
(10+10+40+90+90)/500=0.48 or 48%

Chance of fold:
(90+90+60+10+10)/500=0.52 or 52%

Therefor a call is marginally better because he folds to a re-raise 52% of the time based on my estimated range percentages. By calling we add EV to our hand by allow him to bet the turn.

Admitadly if we adjust it to a 50/50 chance of him folding AK then it drasticly changes the equation and it become clear cut that calling is much better.

The adjusted equation of 50/50 fold/raise with AK:

Chance of re-raise:
(10+10+40+90+50)/500=0.4 or 40%

Chance of fold:
(90+90+60+10+50)/500=0.6 or 60%

As you notice with a small adjustment we can move the 4% edge into a 20% edge thus poker not being an exact science.
 
ChuckTs

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"When in doubt, get money in the pot" - Ed Miller on betting/slowplaying monsters

Realistically I don't think either calling or raising are big mistakes, and that our decision here will weigh pretty heavily on game flow, table images and metagame etc. I personally play a fairly aggressive game relative to full ring, so I'm usually just raising this up.

And yes, poker is far from an 'exact science', especially when you're basing a calculation like that on very general guesstimations.

Anyways I'm just usually raising this - occasionally you even get KK/QQ to put in some more chips or turn their hand into a bluff. Nits like this guy can rarely lay down big pairs, even when you play your hand this straight-forward, and especially down at 25nl.
 
Munchrs

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"When in doubt, get money in the pot" - Ed Miller on betting/slowplaying monsters

Realistically I don't think either calling or raising are big mistakes, and that our decision here will weigh pretty heavily on game flow, table images and metagame etc. I personally play a fairly aggressive game relative to full ring, so I'm usually just raising this up.

And yes, poker is far from an 'exact science', especially when you're basing a calculation like that on very general guesstimations.

Anyways I'm just usually raising this - occasionally you even get KK/QQ to put in some more chips or turn their hand into a bluff. Nits like this guy can rarely lay down big pairs, even when you play your hand this straight-forward, and especially down at 25nl.

What else other than guesstimations do i have to base that equation on. I tried to follow how Harrington analyzes some of the hands in his book to see wether he is ahead or has the right odds.

In the hand i raised to $4 and he folded. Probably KK/QQ.
 
ChuckTs

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What else other than guesstimations do i have to base that equation on.

Well nothing, really. That's what I mean when I say it probably comes down to game flow here.

It's not a glaringly obvious raise/smooth call, so when it's this close in-game I usually lean towards raising since in general, players will pay you off at these stakes, sometimes even when they hold an underpair (albeit unlikely).

His c-bet does look incredibly weak though and I might smooth call once. Anyways it's close.
 
vanquish

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i mean i dont see a 11/11/inf double barreling KK or QQ here, and esp since turn could scare him off his hand if he's not on a draw (a heart, etc), re-popping flop is probably optimal.
i'd crank it to $6 or so.
 
Munchrs

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Well nothing, really. That's what I mean when I say it probably comes down to game flow here.

Im having trouble understanding this. What do you mean by "Game flow"?

It's not a glaringly obvious raise/smooth call, so when it's this close in-game I usually lean towards raising since in general, players will pay you off at these stakes, sometimes even when they hold an underpair (albeit unlikely).

I agree, my edge is so small it is irrelevant, so standard play of raising here is best.
 
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