$25NL flopped set.

ChuckTs

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By game flow I just mean how the two of you have been playing, and how the whole table has been playing in respect to how it would affect the hand.

Just table images, how much you've tried 'odd' balancing plays recently, what you did last time you had a monster vs him, what you did last time you showed down a monster, etc etc.

I'm just putting it in terms you aren't familiar with - if you've been more passive in the past, then a raise might set off alarm bells in his head which you don't want. If you've been attacking c-bets or playing aggressively in general, he's much more likely to believe you're doing it again etc etc.

Anyways I'm going into too much depth here considering he's only been at the table 51 hands, but you get the idea. Do what he's seen you do before (unless it's a fold :p)
 
Munchrs

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By game flow I just mean how the two of you have been playing, and how the whole table has been playing in respect to how it would affect the hand.

Just table images, how much you've tried 'odd' balancing plays recently, what you did last time you had a monster vs him, what you did last time you showed down a monster, etc etc.

I'm just putting it in terms you aren't familiar with - if you've been more passive in the past, then a raise might set off alarm bells in his head which you don't want. If you've been attacking c-bets or playing aggressively in general, he's much more likely to believe you're doing it again etc etc.

Anyways I'm going into too much depth here considering he's only been at the table 51 hands, but you get the idea. Do what he's seen you do before (unless it's a fold :p)

ok, thanks i see what you mean. But 51 hands as you say dosnt give much of a history against each other.
 
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"The answer why you should NEVER fold 22 pre-flop in these situations is in your own post."

But with these small pairs basically the only way to win is flopping a set which only happens less than 15% of the time. You're putting in 5 big blinds where the only way you can continue postflop is getting a set. With medium pairs like 77 - JJ you can often win without flopping a set. If this were a big multiway pot and you were in late position with a small pair then calling a big raise pf would make more sense.
That logic holds water if you're on a small stack. For this particular hand there is a still a little bit of merit to it although I'm not sure your rationale for the fold is completely there ...

Anyways, you need to consider stack sizes and you also need to consider how many times you'll be able to bust the villain if you do hit your set.

Here we have slightly less than a full stack. Villain has a full stack and will be out of position for the rest of the hand so I lean toward calling pre-flop.
 
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Czech Razor

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By game flow I just mean how the two of you have been playing, and how the whole table has been playing in respect to how it would affect the hand.

Just table images, how much you've tried 'odd' balancing plays recently, what you did last time you had a monster vs him, what you did last time you showed down a monster, etc etc.

I'm just putting it in terms you aren't familiar with - if you've been more passive in the past, then a raise might set off alarm bells in his head which you don't want. If you've been attacking c-bets or playing aggressively in general, he's much more likely to believe you're doing it again etc etc.

Anyways I'm going into too much depth here considering he's only been at the table 51 hands, but you get the idea. Do what he's seen you do before (unless it's a fold :p)
I'd also recommend figuring out if your $25 NL villain is smart enough to consider this during a session. Usually the answer to that is no and you can play Lee Jones style ABC poker for a decent win rate.
 
Munchrs

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I'd also recommend figuring out if your $25 NL villain is smart enough to consider this during a session. Usually the answer to that is no and you can play Lee Jones style ABC poker for a decent win rate.

no need to worry about my winrate its 25bb/100 over 10k hands.
 
Munchrs

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oh by the way, your'e a bit late, this thread is already done and dusted for the most part. :D
 
Four Dogs

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no need to worry about my winrate its 25bb/100 over 10k hands.
That's really amazing. I've managed 18-20 over short spans of time, say a couple of thousand hands. One or two bad sessions usually brings you back down to earth. How are you avoiding suckouts, and bad sessions? I've tracked thousands of pro hands and there's not a single one who is even close to that over as few as 4000 hands. You must be doing something right. I think I'll chase down a few of your hand analysis posts.
 
ChuckTs

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I'd also recommend figuring out if your $25 NL villain is smart enough to consider this during a session. Usually the answer to that is no and you can play Lee Jones style ABC poker for a decent win rate.

While you're probably right, even the dumbest of opponents subconsciously pick up on stuff you've done in the past.

They're not going to think "ok he's calling so he's probably on a draw or a marginal hand - I remember when he check-raised me huge and had a set a few hands ago so I think I'm ready to get my stack in here" during a hand, but will probably think more on the lines of "OPPONENT AGGRESSIVE, ME HAVE TOP PAIR/ME NO LIKE HIM bluff ME OFF KK, ARLLL IN" etc.

no need to worry about my winrate its 25bb/100 over 10k hands.

That's vicious man. How many tables at a time?
 
Munchrs

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While you're probably right, even the dumbest of opponents subconsciously pick up on stuff you've done in the past.

They're not going to think "ok he's calling so he's probably on a draw or a marginal hand - I remember when he check-raised me huge and had a set a few hands ago so I think I'm ready to get my stack in here" during a hand, but will probably think more on the lines of "OPPONENT AGGRESSIVE, ME HAVE TOP PAIR/ME NO LIKE HIM BLUFF ME OFF KK, ARLLL IN" etc.



That's vicious man. How many tables at a time?

According to PT it is an average of 12, but once i get my session going i have 16 tables up.
 
WVHillbilly

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That's 25PTBB/100 right? Crazy good over that large of a sample.
 
Four Dogs

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According to PT it is an average of 12, but once i get my session going i have 16 tables up.

And you only have 10,000 hands? With 12 open tables average? That's like 10 hours of poker.
 
Munchrs

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That's really amazing. I've managed 18-20 over short spans of time, say a couple of thousand hands. One or two bad sessions usually brings you back down to earth. How are you avoiding suckouts, and bad sessions? I've tracked thousands of pro hands and there's not a single one who is even close to that over as few as 4000 hands. You must be doing something right. I think I'll chase down a few of your hand analysis posts.

RA posts are few and far between, i generally dont poat my analysis as i do it by myself. I dont avoid suckouts and badbeats. To explain how i maintain my edge would be a long and complicated process and i cant be bothered. I try to make the most profitable play in every situation, it seems to work out.
 
Munchrs

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And you only have 10,000 hands? With 12 open tables average? That's like 10 hours of poker.

i dont expect to maintain this winrate, but i dont expect it to drop below 10bb/100. $25NL is easier to win at than $2NL because people call your flop bets and then reailize on the turn that you probably have a better hand than them and fold so the badbeats are less. Whereas at $2NL people dont realise that they are behind and call and suckout alot more.
 
zachvac

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i dont expect to maintain this winrate, but i dont expect it to drop below 10bb/100. $25NL is easier to win at than $2NL because people call your flop bets and then reailize on the turn that you probably have a better hand than them and fold so the badbeats are less. Whereas at $2NL people dont realise that they are behind and call and suckout alot more.

First off, bb = big blinds, not Big Bets correct? If so I agree, 5 BB (Big Bets)/100 is easily maintainable if you're playing good solid poker and can avoid going on tilt. But I disagree with your assessment that it's easier to win. Well maybe it's easier to win, but when people chase over the long term, you win. This means that although you have less chance at $25NL of having a bad session, your average session will be worse at $25NL than it is at $2NL. If you're playing enough sessions, variance is irrelevant. If people chase more, your winrate goes up (unless of course you're paying them off when they do hit, giving them the implied odds making their bad plays actually good plays theoretically against you).
 
Four Dogs

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First off, bb = big blinds, not Big Bets correct? If so I agree, 5 BB (Big Bets)/100 is easily maintainable if you're playing good solid poker and can avoid going on tilt. But I disagree with your assessment that it's easier to win. Well maybe it's easier to win, but when people chase over the long term, you win. This means that although you have less chance at $25NL of having a bad session, your average session will be worse at $25NL than it is at $2NL. If you're playing enough sessions, variance is irrelevant. If people chase more, your winrate goes up (unless of course you're paying them off when they do hit, giving them the implied odds making their bad plays actually good plays theoretically against you).
lol. That's it. He's got PT set to return his win rate in big blinds/100 instead of the usual Big Bets/100. Translation is 12.5BB/100. Still fantastic, but believable. Nice going Munchy.
 
vanquish

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i dont expect to maintain this winrate, but i dont expect it to drop below 10bb/100. $25NL is easier to win at than $2NL because people call your flop bets and then reailize on the turn that you probably have a better hand than them and fold so the badbeats are less. Whereas at $2NL people dont realise that they are behind and call and suckout alot more.

lol that makes no sense, if people call more when they are behind, you are winning more PTBBs on average than you would if they folded
 
Munchrs

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lol that makes no sense, if people call more when they are behind, you are winning more PTBBs on average than you would if they folded

lol i actually just read my own post, it is ridiculous :eek: . It just means higher varience.
 
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