Originally Posted by AviCKter
So, next time you see a player, who according to you, is playing WILD or Getting lucky, try to dig deeper: see if that's the case or does he know something that you don't yet.


Your range in the EV calculations above [77+, A8s+, A9o+, KTs+, KTo+, QTs+, QJo, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s] is 16.29% of all hands.
The average PFR of the players on the table is 11.28%. We know almost nothing about our villain's tendencies. The best proxy is to ask what the average player would do.
Since the average player here raises 11.28% of the time from all positions, and the average player raises less often from early position, let's say our villain is raising about 9% of the time here.
A 9% range looks like this: [66+,ATs+,ATo+]
KQo's equity against this range is 35.21%
Above you estimate that villain is folding 61% of the time. But using the more accurate range, he is folding considerably less often than that. Having cut away ~45% of the range you suggested, let's say he folds ~ 45% less often than your initially estimated 61%. So he folds (.45*61) about 33% of the time. If there is a better way to estimate how often villain folds, please let me know!
When villain calls, he does so with the top 66% of his range. 66% of his 9% range is (9*.66) ~5.9%. A 5.9% range looks like this [88+,AJs+,AQo+]. We have 35.2% equity against this range.
33% of the time villain folds and we win 4.58 BB
66% of the time villain calls. We win 16.52 blinds 35.2% of the time, and lose 13.94 blinds 64.8% of the time.
EVshove = 0.33*4.58+0.66(16.52*0.35213.94*.648)=0.6125328
Don't shove!
I am not mathematically inclined, so I could be wrong. If so, please explain my error(s).