Tournament: Spot analysis? V/s Cash Games

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AviCKter

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This is where tournaments differ from Cash game.

So, what do you normally do in this kind of situations? And why?


888 Poker - 250/500 Ante 60 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 16.34 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 8)
UTG+1: 33.08 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
MP: 46.02 BB (VPIP: 20.41, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 49)
MP+1: 36.38 BB (VPIP: 23.08, PFR: 23.08, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
MP+2: 27.08 BB (VPIP: 15.38, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
CO: 20.99 BB (VPIP: 15.38, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 13)
Hero (BTN): 13.94 BB
SB: 27.52 BB (VPIP: 7.69, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
BB: 23.66 BB (VPIP: 30.77, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)

9 players post ante of 0.12 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.58 BB) Hero has K:heart: Q:spade:

fold, UTG+1 raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold,
 
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AlexTheOwl

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You have the opportunity to see the flop with a decent starting hand, and in position, by investing only 1 BB. So I wouldn't fold.

Raises from early position 9-handed are an indicator of strength, That's especially true on this table, where the player stats indicate that most or all of these players have at least half a clue of how to play well. You probably have the weaker hand here, so I wouldn't raise for value.

You don't have enough experience with the UTG+1 to know how likely they are to fold to a button raise, so I wouldn't raise as a bluff.

So call. You are getting short-stacked, but you aren't desperate yet.
 
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Queen of hearts

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You can easily see the flop by making a call.
 
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AviCKter

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You don't have enough experience with the UTG+1 to know how likely they are to fold to a button raise, so I wouldn't raise as a bluff.

So call. You are getting short-stacked, but you aren't desperate yet.

That was one of the factors I took into consideration.

I'm short-stacked. I have only 14BB, I'm very desperate.
30-50bb is when I consider that I have a competitive stack, 20-and less, I have to make some plays or else the blinds would get me. Always keep this into consideration, how much is your stack size and what happens when I wait for better hands.

Think about what happens when I make one play vs the other (call, fold, re-raise all-in). Think of all the possible combination of hands he might have and what can he actually do once I make my play.
 
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AlexTheOwl

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That was one of the factors I took into consideration.

I'm short-stacked. I have only 14BB, I'm very desperate.
30-50bb is when I consider that I have a competitive stack, 20-and less, I have to make some plays or else the blinds would get me. Always keep this into consideration, how much is your stack size and what happens when I wait for better hands.

Think about what happens when I make one play vs the other (call, fold, re-raise all-in). Think of all the possible combination of hands he might have and what can he actually do once I make my play.

If you are very desperate at 14BB, what would you be at 3BB? Extra-super-special desperate? 14 BB is not 30BB, but it is also not death's doorstep.
 
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Rational Madman

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I totally understand why this situation is hard. This is why cash games are for the smarter player. :) This situation is going to become that you need to overbet to not choke for the rest of the tournament for all you know, this is the last good hand you'll ge tbefore you blind out. You need to force him to pay you a good amount before even seeing hte flop to let him get disappointed.


For me, I will raise him to 5BB. I will no mercy on this guy, he is messing with the wrong dude and will learn to respect you or will laugh at you as he coolers you who knows it? No one, this is leap of faith. If you don't take these leaps, you never get first place and always play for lowest payout level it is the wrong mentality to have in tournaments.

Tournaments you HAVE TO PLAY LIKE A DONKEY in the mid-game or you never ever can dominate the lategame more often than not if you reach it as your stack is so shallow.

Cash games are more for the smart players who likes logical risk rather than passionate risk.
 
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AviCKter

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If you are very desperate at 14BB, what would you be at 3BB? Extra-super-special desperate? 14 BB is not 30BB, but it is also not death's doorstep.

This is how you should think regarding stack sizes:

Lets say, we're playing a tournament with 1000 entrants. Each receive 1000 chips at the start of the tournament. Lets say some people have already been out and some remain.

So in our case we're talking about 14bb, so lets say you have that much.
Now, 14bb translates into 1400chip for 50/100 blind level.
So, your chances of coming first = 1400/1000000 (where 1000000 is the total chips in play) = 0.14%.
Your chances of survival = 1400/150= 9 rounds approx. (without taking blind level increase into account)
If you play standard, raise/call (2bb). You'll be investing 2bb/14bb = 14% of your stack.

If you take more factors into account (increasing blind levels, antes kicking in, pace of the tournament, big stacks turning maniac etc), you'll see that you've very slim chances of winning this tournament. And that is why 14bb is considered a desperate stack.

3bb is DEAD. You need some miracle.
You need to make a comeback like the UNDERTAKER.:saint:
 
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AviCKter

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I totally understand why this situation is hard. This is why cash games are for the smarter player. :) This situation is going to become that you need to overbet to not choke for the rest of the tournament for all you know, this is the last good hand you'll ge tbefore you blind out. You need to force him to pay you a good amount before even seeing hte flop to let him get disappointed.


For me, I will raise him to 5BB. I will no mercy on this guy, he is messing with the wrong dude and will learn to respect you or will laugh at you as he coolers you who knows it? No one, this is leap of faith. If you don't take these leaps, you never get first place and always play for lowest payout level it is the wrong mentality to have in tournaments.

Tournaments you HAVE TO PLAY LIKE A DONKEY in the mid-game or you never ever can dominate the lategame more often than not if you reach it as your stack is so shallow.

Cash games are more for the smart players who likes logical risk rather than passionate risk.

Tough spot, for some maybe. For others, they'll see and say, "ah I'll do this with x% of my range and do that with y% of my range".

And yes, its logical and very rational.
 
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Tough spot, for some maybe. For others, they'll see and say, "ah I'll do this with x% of my range and do that with y% of my range".

And yes, its logical and very rational.
What use is your percent when you have no clue if in the amount of hands left before you blind-out, the hand strong enough to enable to to use X% this or Y% that is going to even appear?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

you know nothing because it's based on the fear-level of opponents, the strength of their hand vs yours before seeing their reaction to a raise and furthermore is based on the FUTURE HANDS BEFORE YOU BLIND OUT WHICH IS IMPOSSIBLE TO ASCERTAIN.

Whether or not the right move here is to fold or raise is based on how likely you think it is you're gonna be pushed all-in or near all-in by other players regularly and if you think a good hand will come.

You either fold here or shove to 5BB, you don't do what other said which is to call it. You want to turn your desperation into power or remain decently enough stacked to make a great hand payoff more later.
 
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AlexTheOwl

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This is how you should think regarding stack sizes:

Lets say, we're playing a tournament with 1000 entrants. Each receive 1000 chips at the start of the tournament. Lets say some people have already been out and some remain.

So in our case we're talking about 14bb, so lets say you have that much.
Now, 14bb translates into 1400chip for 50/100 blind level.
So, your chances of coming first = 1400/1000000 (where 1000000 is the total chips in play) = 0.14%.
Your chances of survival = 1400/150= 9 rounds approx. (without taking blind level increase into account)
If you play standard, raise/call (2bb). You'll be investing 2bb/14bb = 14% of your stack.

If you take more factors into account (increasing blind levels, antes kicking in, pace of the tournament, big stacks turning maniac etc), you'll see that you've very slim chances of winning this tournament. And that is why 14bb is considered a desperate stack.

3bb is DEAD. You need some miracle.
You need to make a comeback like the UNDERTAKER.:saint:

I'm mostly an SNG player, and somewhat familiar with M and the ICM.

I see players raising all-in (which is really the only raise option here) in situations similar to your KQ scenario sometimes, and I assume they are doing so because they feel VERY DESPERATE, when in fact they are merely approaching the threshold of despair.

In this scenario I think they are likely to be called, and very likely to be behind (though not hopeless). With 14 BB I think they are likely to find better spots for a shove. I have no proof for that belief. Can you demonstrate whether I am correct or not? I assume we are too early in the MTT for an ICM solution to be practical?
 
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AviCKter

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Okay, here is where you should start thinking.

Villain is UTG+1 with 33 bb. He's not desperate, he has a competitive stack and he shouldn't slow down and keep accumulating chips (That should be his strategy for this stage).

So he opens.
First, lets start by ranging him (given the information we have, 33bb stack, his strategy).
A good estimate of his range will be something like this: {77+, A8s+, A9o+, KTs+, KTo+, QTs+, QJo, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s}.
But people on this site are much more weaker, so they add more small pairs {22-66}, suited A {A2-A7}, some more rag A {A5o-A8o}, but anyways lets ignore it for a while.

So his range consists of 180 combos (taking card removal into consideration)
If I re-raise he continues with, {77+,AJs+,AQo+}, which is 70 combos, given we're asking him to put 1/2 his stack in. The more hands he calls, the better our showdown equity; the lesser he calls, the more our fold equity.

So, lets see: When we shove all-in, he's continuing with 70/180 = 39% and folding 61%. When we get called, against his calling range, we have 33% equity.

So calculating the EVshove = 0.61*4.58+0.39(16.52*0.33-13.94*.67)=+1.277
EVfold= -0.12
EVcall=0.4662*4.58-2*0.5338=+0.7972
(Our equity of 46.62% against his overall opening range).

More important than the calculation itself is that fact that when you do this, people will see you as aggressive, so you'll less likely be 3-bet light. And that fear, my friend, is a great weapon to have.

So every time you have some situations like this, start by thinking what would be his opening range and what part of his range would he continue. Off course, its not easy to pin-point an exact range and it takes a lot of experience to be able to do this kind of exercise.

Anyways, hope it makes sense.

Now your task should be to figure out what range of hands would you call here & what range would you shove?
 
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AviCKter

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What use is your percent when you have no clue if in the amount of hands left before you blind-out, the hand strong enough to enable to to use X% this or Y% that is going to even appear?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

you know nothing because it's based on the fear-level of opponents, the strength of their hand vs yours before seeing their reaction to a raise and furthermore is based on the FUTURE HANDS BEFORE YOU BLIND OUT WHICH IS IMPOSSIBLE TO ASCERTAIN.

Whether or not the right move here is to fold or raise is based on how likely you think it is you're gonna be pushed all-in or near all-in by other players regularly and if you think a good hand will come.

You either fold here or shove to 5BB, you don't do what other said which is to call it. You want to turn your desperation into power or remain decently enough stacked to make a great hand payoff more later.

I've seen you rant about how tournaments are gamble and how you think only cash game is based on skill.

So, my suggestion is Study. Study, dude. Its not that difficult.
Learn what patience factor is, that should be a good start. Learn, how to determine spots? How to make the best use of your position? Where you should be making one play vs another? How to collect information, when none seem to exist? There's just so much to learn about tournament poker, that you seem to have not explored yet.
 
Alucard

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In a cash game this situation wouldn't happen cause you are deep & if someone is raising 2BB pre UTG+1 (at micro at least) that means he's a crap player. I'd 3bet easily.

Here ICM should be taken into consideration.
And also since you are short stacked, your shove range is pretty wide as well. So a call from him wouldn't be a surprise as well.
I'll read what you've written

edit - ok I've got some studying to do. lol
 
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AviCKter

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In a cash game this situation wouldn't happen cause you are deep & if someone is raising 2BB pre UTG+1 (at micro at least) that means he's a crap player. I'd 3bet easily.

Here ICM should be taken into consideration.
And also since you are short stacked, your shove range is pretty wide as well. So a call from him wouldn't be a surprise as well.
I'll read what you've written

Yeah, I agree. Cash game has much more depth. But lets for fun-sake, analyze what would have happened if you were 100bb deep and what would be your strategy if UTG+1 raised and you got dealt KQo in BU? Do the calculation, start with the first step of ranging him & go on from there.

ICM isn't that much of a consideration as much as the dynamics is, you see we're still not in the money. ICM plays a role when there are monetary considerations, esp. in bubble situations. I tried it that way, because it would have been hard to get the point across otherwise.

I'm short-stacked, but I take away a chunk of his stack and as I've already shown how that would be a big consideration for him.
Sure, he can call and many a times I've been called in spots like this, but what should determine your play here is not the fact that you get called, but which option is the most profitable of them all. You see which one has the best EV, right? And these are the kind of calculations you need to be doing off the table, if you want to improve your tournament game.
 
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Yeah, I agree. Cash game has much more depth. But lets for fun-sake, analyze what would have happened if you were 100bb deep and what would be your strategy if UTG+1 raised and you got dealt KQo in BU? Do the calculation, start with the first step of ranging him & go on from there.

ICM isn't that much of a consideration as much as the dynamics is, you see we're still not in the money. ICM plays a role when there are monetary considerations, esp. in bubble situations. I tried it that way, because it would have been hard to get the point across otherwise.

I'm short-stacked, but I take away a chunk of his stack and as I've already shown how that would be a big consideration for him.
Sure, he can call and many a times I've been called in spots like this, but what should determine your play here is not the fact that you get called, but which option is the most profitable of them all. You see which one has the best EV, right? And these are the kind of calculations you need to be doing off the table, if you want to improve your tournament game.
you are in a 1v1 hand and have KQ... The next good hand you have (if it exists) can be vs 2 or more opponents meaning there are more chances of you being outdrawn by some weird combo like 2-pair or flush. 1v1 is the best opportunity to capitalize on a coinflip type hand.

I know how to think about tournaments, it's just that I admit it's gambling/luck and you don't.
 
Vilgeoforc

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There are a few arguments for call or fold.
1. Opponent raises from UTG. This is cause for concern.
2. You have no information on the opponent.
3. You are behind two players in the blinds position. One of them is loose.
Your hand is weak to push, because you can get between two fires, or dominated or coin flip from UTG.
I tend to fold, but call is also possible.
 
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AviCKter

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I'm just trying to help you think

There are a few arguments for call or fold.
1. Opponent raises from UTG. This is cause for concern.
2. You have no information on the opponent.
3. You are behind two players in the blinds position. One of them is loose.
Your hand is weak to push, because you can get between two fires, or dominated or coin flip from UTG.
I tend to fold, but call is also possible.

1. Opponent raises from UTG. YES. What do you make of it? What ranges do you think he might have?
2. You have no information on the opponent. Not true. He has 33bb, he's sitting in UTG+1 and hasn't opened in the last couple of rounds (4 to be exact).
3. You are behind two players in the blinds position. One of them is loose.Yes. One of them is LOOSE. BUT is he SUICIDAL?
4. Your hand is weak to push, because you can get between two fires, or dominated or coin flip from UTG. My hand is marginal. How many hands dominate me? And which among them, comes in for the ride?
I tend to fold, but call is also possible.How should you decide?


you are in a 1v1 hand and have KQ... The next good hand you have (if it exists) can be vs 2 or more opponents meaning there are more chances of you being outdrawn by some weird combo like 2-pair or flush. 1v1 is the best opportunity to capitalize on a coinflip type hand.

I know how to think about tournaments, it's just that I admit it's gambling/luck and you don't.

Whatever suits you.
 
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AlexTheOwl

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Avi, I think you are overestimating how wide this generic opponent is opening from early position on a full table in a tournament where players seem to have reasonable stats. I can't demonstrate this to be the case though. Can you explain the logic behind the range you are putting him on?

Also worth noting is that villain knows you are short stacked and that you may be pushing with a wide range.
 
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AviCKter

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Waiting for a game to finish to put in some Nash numbers :D
Can't run it with a client
 
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AviCKter

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Okay, so put in the figures and ran it on ICMizer. I took the Sunday Storm Payout, since this tournament is not listed and since this tournament is going to pay a bit top heavy than Sunday storm, the results would be much more easier to see and the ranges much more profitable.
 

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AviCKter

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Avi, I think you are overestimating how wide this generic opponent is opening from early position on a full table in a tournament where players seem to have reasonable stats. I can't demonstrate this to be the case though. Can you explain the logic behind the range you are putting him on?

Also worth noting is that villain knows you are short stacked and that you may be pushing with a wide range.

I'm taking away small pairs from his and giving him some suited connector for post-flop playability reasons. As you know, small pairs are bad to play EP, esp. when 2 or 3 over-cards might hit the board and you might not have sufficient odds to set-mine.
 
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AlexTheOwl

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If I am reading the screenshots correctly, you are estimating that this generic villain is open-raising 20% of his hands in this situation from UTG+1. Is this correct?

If so, what led you to that number? I see this from above:


Villain is UTG+1 with 33 bb. He's not desperate, he has a competitive stack and he shouldn't slow down and keep accumulating chips (That should be his strategy for this stage).

But I associate that strategy with a player who is making somewhat frequent raises from late position.

Only one player on this table has a PFR of 20% or above, and that, of course, is from all positions. If this villain is raising 20% of his hands from early position then they are an outlier, and we have no reason to believe they are an outlier.
 
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