Tournament: Spot analysis? V/s Cash Games

[AviCKter]

If I am reading the screenshots correctly, you are estimating that this generic villain is open-raising 20% of his hands in this situation from UTG+1. Is this correct?

If so, what led you to that number? I see this from above:

These are NASH equilibrium range, I didn't create it. The software does it for you, it takes into account a lot of different factors while calculating it.

You see, that's where people go wrong, if I shoved KQo, I'm playing loose, that's the assumption, right? But they don't understand what that actual means. What is that tight and loose range?
Most people base it on HUD stats. And you know what, Stats lies. If you play Hyper-turbos you'll see, most people would have a stat of something like 27/19 or something of that sort, so how do you make reads about him? Is he loose, or is he tight?

When someone says a player is tight, that means he's playing tighter than what Nash Equilibrium dictates; if loose, he's playing looser than Nash. That simple.

 

[AlexTheOwl]

These are NASH equilibrium range, I didn't create it. The software does it for you, it takes into account a lot of different factors while calculating it.

Ok. But whether it's you or the software assigning a 20% PFR in this case to this villain, that seems too high.

Or is there a flaw in my thinking that a 20% PFR UTG+1 would make this player an outlier, and we have no reason to think they are an outlier?

 

[AviCKter]

Ok. But whether it's you or the software assigning a 20% PFR in this case to this villain, that seems too high.

Or is there a flaw in my thinking that a 20% PFR UTG+1 would make this player an outlier, and we have no reason to think they are an outlier?

Yes, it is high. But what you're not taking into consideration is that the player who wins the tournament is the player with all the chips at the end and so our objective of any tournament is to collect all the chips. The way we do it is by making +EV plays at each decision point.

You're forgetting that he has a 33bb stack (lets say 'x' amount) and that he has to convert it into the entire chips at play (lets say 'y') in the tournament, if he intends to win. x->y won't happen if you keep waiting for certain cards. If you keep waiting for hands, you'll most likely find yourself in a tough situation.
Let me give you an example: The probability of getting dealt hands that you normally think you should open from a certain position is marginal, like AA for instance. The probability of you being dealt AA is 1/221 (Getting dealt two aces out of 4 possible ace, 6 possible combinations, v/s the total number of possible combinations, 52*51/2=1326) or 0.45%.

So if your aim is to WIN, then whenever you get dealt a hand, you need to figure out the best possible way to play it. Choose the option that maximizes your EV: FOLD, CALL, RAISE, BET, CHECK.
To become successful at SnGs/MTTs, you'll have to deal with a lot of calculations like these and You do all these kind of analysis off the table and apply it while playing.

And you're mistaken on the fact that opening a 20% range equivalents PFR of 20.

 

[AlexTheOwl]

Yes, it is high. But what you're not taking into consideration is that the player who wins the tournament is the player with all the chips at the end and so our objective of any tournament is to collect all the chips. The way we do it is by making +EV plays at each decision point.

. . .

And you're mistaken on the fact that opening a 20% range equivalents PFR of 20.

Now I'm really confused. Earlier in the thread you assigned a range to the villain and and counted combinations to justify playing KQ in this spot.

You said that "So every time you have some situations like this, start by thinking what would be his opening range and what part of his range would he continue."

Now that I've pointed out that that range was much too wide, it's hey, well, never mind ranges, here's some boilerplate about how you should always do what is +EV.

What PFR would you assign to this villain in this spot now, and why? What do the range calculations tell us when that new range is used?

And where did I say that "opening a 20% range equivalents PFR of 20%"? I think it is accurate to say that raising a 20% range equates to a PFR of 20%?

 

[AviCKter]

Okay, Okay. Let me slow things down.

1. Whenever you're in a situation v/s a random Villain, you start by ranging him. How do you put a Villain's range in a tournament: Stack size, Position (added information, HUD stats, but its not that easy to use HUD stats in tournaments, unless you've a lot of history playing with the villain or you're very good at Hypothesizing). And yes, range plays a lot of role in what action we should take.
2. The range is not that wide, take my word for it.
3. What good is ranging, if we cannot convert it into actionable form? EV calculation is nothing but an addendum to the equity calculation. Equity calculation doesn't give us a clear idea of "which option should we choose from all that are available (Call/Fold/Raise)", it just tells us if calling is okay. EV calculation gives us a very clear idea.
4. PFR is just a stat. You cannot assign it, it varies every hand.
5. I gave you the Nash Equilibrium to make you understand that I'm not that far from what range he should be playing in that spot.
6. What does it tells us, Still Profitable.

Take away:
Nash Equilibrium is a very important concept and you'll have to learn about it.
Ranging should be based on a number of different factors, not just position or how I would play in his position.
Stack sizes is a key component of tournament.
Expected Value calculation is an advanced concept, that's built on equity calculation.

I was not trying to justify my play, I know my play, and I know what it has earned me. I was trying to show that Tournaments aren't random, or just luck like people assume it to be. There's a lot that goes behind winning a tournament (or being a successful tournament grinder) and building a 5,6-digit Bankroll.
So, next time you see a player, who according to you, is playing WILD or Getting lucky, try to dig deeper: see if that's the case or does he know something that you don't yet.

 

[AviCKter]

Now that I've pointed out that that range was much too wide

What according to you should be the Villain's range there?

Furthermore, is there a difference in you playing range when you have 10bb vs 12bb stack (Or 25bb vs 30bb; or 50bb vs 100bb stack) in UTG (Or any particular position)? Why? Why not?

 

[AlexTheOwl]

So, next time you see a player, who according to you, is playing WILD or Getting lucky, try to dig deeper: see if that's the case or does he know something that you don't yet.

Your range in the EV calculations above [77+, A8s+, A9o+, KTs+, KTo+, QTs+, QJo, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s] is 16.29% of all hands.

The average PFR of the players on the table is 11.28%. We know almost nothing about our villain's tendencies. The best proxy is to ask what the average player would do.

Since the average player here raises 11.28% of the time from all positions, and the average player raises less often from early position, let's say our villain is raising about 9% of the time here.

A 9% range looks like this: [66+,ATs+,ATo+]

KQo's equity against this range is 35.21%

Above you estimate that villain is folding 61% of the time. But using the more accurate range, he is folding considerably less often than that. Having cut away ~45% of the range you suggested, let's say he folds ~ 45% less often than your initially estimated 61%. So he folds (.45*61) about 33% of the time. If there is a better way to estimate how often villain folds, please let me know!

When villain calls, he does so with the top 66% of his range. 66% of his 9% range is (9*.66) ~5.9%. A 5.9% range looks like this [88+,AJs+,AQo+]. We have 35.2% equity against this range.

33% of the time villain folds and we win 4.58 BB
66% of the time villain calls. We win 16.52 blinds 35.2% of the time, and lose 13.94 blinds 64.8% of the time.

EVshove = 0.33*4.58+0.66(16.52*0.352-13.94*.648)=-0.6125328


Don't shove!

I am not mathematically inclined, so I could be wrong. If so, please explain my error(s).

 

[AviCKter]

The average PFR of the players on the table is 11.28%. We know almost nothing about our villain's tendencies. The best proxy is to ask what the average player would do.

Since the average player here raises 11.28% of the time from all positions, and the average player raises less often from early position

Never do this, NEVER EVER DO THIS. You can't average out card distribution that way, if that was possible, everyone would be an equal winner, nobody would make any money because everyone knows what the combination of other player should be based on averaging-out.

let's say our villain is raising about 9% of the time here.

A 9% range looks like this: [66+,ATs+,ATo+]

KQo's equity against this range is 35.21%

Above you estimate that villain is folding 61% of the time. But using the more accurate range, he is folding considerably less often than that. Having cut away ~45% of the range you suggested, let's say he folds ~ 45% less often than your initially estimated 61%. So he folds (.45*61) about 33% of the time. If there is a better way to estimate how often villain folds, please let me know!

When villain calls, he does so with the top 66% of his range. 66% of his 9% range is (9*.66) ~5.9%. A 5.9% range looks like this [88+,AJs+,AQo+]. We have 35.2% equity against this range.

33% of the time villain folds and we win 4.58 BB
66% of the time villain calls. We win 16.52 blinds 35.3% of the time, and lose 13.94 blinds 64.8% of the time.

EVshove = 0.33*4.58+0.66(16.52*0.352-13.94*.648)=-0.6125328


Don't shove!

I am not mathematically inclined, so I could be wrong. If so, please explain my error(s).

Its 7.69%, i.e. playing the same range as you would when you have 100bb or a CASH GAME (Hence the name of the topic, see! I knew this was coming. )
So my question to you again, does your range changes UTG+1 with a 10bb vs 12bb stack?

 

[AlexTheOwl]

Never do this, NEVER EVER DO THIS. You can't average out card distribution that way, if that was possible, everyone would be an equal winner, nobody would make any money because everyone knows what the combination of other player should be based on averaging-out.

What? Who is this person averaging out card distribution? I am angry too! Let's gang up and find him!

I am averaging out PFRs. If you have a better way to estimate how often our villain is raising, please share it. When you know little about your opponent, you must ask yourself what the average player at this stage of this tournament would do.

Its 7.69%, i.e. playing the same range as you would when you have 100bb or a CASH GAME (Hence the name of the topic, see! I knew this was coming. )
So my question to you again, does your range changes UTG+1 with a 10bb vs 12bb stack?

WHAT is 7.69%?

 

[AviCKter]

WHAT is 7.69%?

That's the range you assigned him. It's not 9%, taking into consideration you have a K and a Q.

 

[AviCKter]

I am averaging out PFRs. If you have a better way to estimate how often our villain is raising, please share it. When you know little about your opponent, you must ask yourself what the average player at this stage of this tournament would do.
?

I did give you the answer, you simply chose to ignore it.
Re-Tag: Nash Equilibrium Range

This is what was intended to make you think: Does your range changes UTG+1 with a 10bb vs 12bb stack?

 

[AlexTheOwl]

I did give you the answer, you simply chose to ignore it.
Re-Tag: Nash Equilibrium Range

This is what was intended to make you think: Does your range changes UTG+1 with a 10bb vs 12bb stack?

Your "better way" calculates that villain is raising 20% of his hands here? I did not ignore that. I said that figure was too high, and I believe you agreed?

 

[AviCKter]

Your "better way" calculates that villain is raising 20% of his hands here? I did not ignore that. I said that figure was too high, and I believe you agreed?

I agreed it's high (compared to what you think he might/should), never agreed it to be wrong. Gave further explanation, why that should be the range.

Let me crack your brain a bit more, you're assuming that 11.58% should be the average range you should be playing each round.So effectively, 88% of hands shouldn't be played (Folded). Each round, this blind level, costs us 2.58bb, that's losing 2.27bb = 0.88*2.58. So in 9 hands (or one orbit, ignoring blind level increase), you're at 31bb (starting with a 33bb stack). Do you see the point? Or why PROFESSIONAL recommend, to play aggressive when you're getting short? Or are you still debating, that you should play only that range you recommend.

 

[AlexTheOwl]

I agreed it's high (compared to what you think he might/should), never agreed it to be wrong.

You are too clever and not nearly clever enough, at the same time.

My understanding of Nash is very limited, but I believe it deals with the ways a player should play to avoid being exploited?

We would like to know how often villain actually raises here. I doubt that Nash addresses this question at all. Am I wrong?

It would be nice to have reliable data about the villain.

We do not have that reliable data (only 4 hands against this opponent).

Approximating what the average player in this tourney would do in this situation is the next best method to determine how often the villain actually raises.

you're assuming that 11.58% should be the average range you should be playing each round

What? I am doing no such thing. I am stating that on average, the players have raised 11.58% of their hands pre-flop during the time that you were able to observe them.

 

[AviCKter]

You are too clever and not nearly clever enough, at the same time.

My understanding of Nash is very limited, but I believe it deals with the ways a player should play to avoid being exploited?

We would like to know how often villain actually raises here. I doubt that Nash addresses this question at all. Am I wrong?

It would be nice to have reliable data about the villain.

We do not have that reliable data (only 4 hands against this opponent).

Approximating what the average player in this tourney would do in this situation is the next best method to determine how often the villain actually raises.



What? I am doing no such thing. I am stating that on average, the players have raised 11.58% of their hands pre-flop during the time that you were able to observe them.

You play SnGs, right? Pokerstars? You'll see, $3.50 & upwards. That will be a fun ride. (Suggestion: Don't play higher buy-in HUSnG, it has a solution and they just do what the solution tells them to do, you won't win against that in the long run)

Don't get me wrong, I too was at the same place, I didn't have any analysis, I was an okay player, despite having a great start at Poker, didn't want to put in more effort than needed (never took it seriously. but now I do, since the past 1 year).

How much can you sit around for information? How many blinds can you afford? Can you re-buy or add chips? Where will chips come from? How much action do you think you'll get from your 11.58% hand when you get involved in a pot?

In doing so, saying 11.58% is the range he should play on average, you're directly saying he should fold 88.5% of his range.

You still don't want to answer me, right? 10bb vs 12bb? Why?

 

[Vilgeoforc]

1. Opponent raises from UTG. YES. What do you make of it? What ranges do you think he might have?
2. You have no information on the opponent. Not true. He has 33bb, he's sitting in UTG+1 and hasn't opened in the last couple of rounds (4 to be exact).
3. You are behind two players in the blinds position. One of them is loose.Yes. One of them is LOOSE. BUT is he SUICIDAL?
4. Your hand is weak to push, because you can get between two fires, or dominated or coin flip from UTG. My hand is marginal. How many hands dominate me? And which among them, comes in for the ride?
I tend to fold, but call is also possible.How should you decide?




Whatever suits you.

1. AA-22, AK-A9, AKs-A2s, KQ-KJ, QJs. I respect a raise from UTG so I fold.
2. He did not enter the game. Yes, and it says he is tight. And it's not in favor of push or call.
3. If I have a player at the back or two players, one of which is loose, I'm not going to push KQ with 14 BB.
4. A-K and A-Q is dominated by you. Any pair is slightly ahead in a coin-flip. Any ACE slightly ahead in a coin-flip.
If before the blinds dropped everything, I would go to al in, but not this time.
The benefits of calling only in the position on your opponents postflop.
But that's my opinion. Do not judge strictly. I'm not a Pro

 

[AviCKter]

1. AA-22, AK-A9, AKs-A2s, KQ-KJ, QJs. I respect a raise from UTG so I fold.
2. He did not enter the game. Yes, and it says he is tight. And it's not in favor of push or call.
3. If I have a player at the back or two players, one of which is loose, I'm not going to push KQ with 14 BB.
4. A-K and A-Q is dominated by you. Any pair is slightly ahead in a coin-flip. Any ACE slightly ahead in a coin-flip.
If before the blinds dropped everything, I would go to al in, but not this time.
The benefits of calling only in the position on your opponents postflop.
But that's my opinion. Do not judge strictly. I'm not a Pro

Okay, fair enough.

But do go through the posts, may be some points might be helpful.

 

[AlexTheOwl]

How much can you sit around for information? How many blinds can you afford? Can you re-buy or add chips? Where will chips come from? How much action do you think you'll get from your 11.58% hand when you get involved in a pot?

In doing so, saying 11.58% is the range he should play on average, you're directly saying he should fold 88.5% of his range.

Ok. Literally the fourth time now. 11.58% is the average PFR of the table. On average, the players have raised 11.58% of their hands pre-flop during the time that you were able to observe them.

It's not an average of card distribution.

It's not the range I think the hero should play.

It's not how frequently I think the villain raises in this spot.

It's not whatever other random thing you'll think of next.

It's the average PFR of the table.
The average PFR of the table.
The average PFR of the table.

I used it as a starting point to estimate how frequently the villain will raise in that spot, for the calculation where I showed why I think a shove is -EV in the hand we are analysing. You may want to revisit that post.

11.58%. It's the average PFR of the table.

 

[AviCKter]

Ok. Literally the fourth time now. 11.58% is the average PFR of the table. On average, the players have raised 11.58% of their hands pre-flop during the time that you were able to observe them.

It's not an average of card distribution.

It's not the range I think the hero should play.

It's not how frequently I think the villain raises in this spot.

It's not whatever other random thing you'll think of next.

It's the average PFR of the table.
The average PFR of the table.
The average PFR of the table.

I used it as a starting point to estimate how frequently the villain will raise in that spot, for the calculation where I showed why I think a shove is -EV in the hand we are analysing. You may want to revisit that post.

11.58%. It's the average PFR of the table.

Quite honestly, its been dragged on for far too long now. Point taken. Whatever feels right to you.

That said, study stack size (esp. competitive stack size, 30bb-50bb) play. Its a necessity.

 

[AlexTheOwl]

I know your intentions are good, so I'll make you happy.

This is what was intended to make you think: Does your range changes UTG+1 with a 10bb vs 12bb stack?

No, it does not.

It changes in the cutoff and button, where I am less likely to be punished for loosening up.

It changes dramatically UTG +1 with a 10bb vs 5bb stack, or with a 10bb vs 15 bb stack.

Does your range change UTG+1 with a 10bb vs. 12bb stack? What hands do you add when you have 10BB?

 

[AviCKter]

Does your range change UTG+1 with a 10bb vs. 12bb stack? What hands do you add when you have 10BB?

Technically speaking (Taking a structure of 10% antes, as an example).

You can do your own research and see if different ranges are recommended.

 

[AlexTheOwl]

Technically speaking

Yes, technically speaking, of course you should be slightly more aggressive pre-flop with 10BB instead of 12BB UTG+1.

Your screenshots suggest increasing your range by 2.1%.

Practically speaking, during a game, am I going to try to make small, precise adjustments like this? No.

When you go from 12 BB to 10BB, do you say to yourself "I am UTG+1 now with two fewer big blinds than I had two orbits ago, so I should add ~ 2% of hands to my range."?

If I am unsure what to do in a hand, or I make a play that I think might be bad, I will study the hand after play is done.

Also, although it is good to understand mathematically derived ranges as a baseline, in real play the tendencies of one's opponents is very important (although less so in early position, because there are so many more players to consider, and they may have different tendencies).

For example, you might min-raise wider than the chart would suggest if you have a hyper-aggressive opponent on the button, since that opponent is likely to re-raise with a weaker hand.

Exploiting the tendencies of other players is where the real profits come, especially at the micros and mid-stakes where there are weaker players to exploit.

 

[AviCKter]

Yes, technically speaking, of course you should be slightly more aggressive pre-flop with 10BB instead of 12BB UTG+1.

Your screenshots suggest increasing your range by 2.1%.

Practically speaking, during a game, am I going to try to make small, precise adjustments like this? No.

When you go from 12 BB to 10BB, do you say to yourself "I am UTG+1 now with two fewer big blinds than I had two orbits ago, so I should add ~ 2% of hands to my range."?

If I am unsure what to do in a hand, or I make a play that I think might be bad, I will study the hand after play is done.

Also, although it is good to understand mathematically derived ranges as a baseline, in real play the tendencies of one's opponents is very important (although less so in early position, because there are so many more players to consider, and they may have different tendencies).

For example, you might min-raise wider than the chart would suggest if you have a hyper-aggressive opponent on the button, since that opponent is likely to re-raise with a weaker hand.

Exploiting the tendencies of other players is where the real profits come, especially at the micros and mid-stakes where there are weaker players to exploit.

Dude, either you don't understand poker at all or you're just a troll.

I've built my entire roll, micro & mid-stake grinding, so please stop trying to preach me about that, you don't know much about it.

Exploiting, blah, blah, stop that stupidity. Yesterday, you weren't even acknowledging Nash, today you are talking about exploitative play? Wow, such great insights in a day. You're a SNG player, give me a break. You're just googling in words & writing whatever comes first on the search results.

So, please do yourself & us some favor and let this forum be for people who want to learn. Go TROLL on some forum that might appreciate your intellect.

 

[AlexTheOwl]

Dude, either you don't understand poker at all or you're just a troll.

I've built my entire roll, micro & mid-stake grinding, so please stop trying to preach me about that, you don't know much about it.

Exploiting, blah, blah, stop that stupidity. Yesterday, you weren't even acknowledging Nash, today you are talking about exploitative play? Wow, such great insights in a day. You're a SNG player, give me a break. You're just googling in words & writing whatever comes first on the search results.

So, please do yourself & us some favor and let this forum be for people who want to learn. Go TROLL on some forum that might appreciate your intellect.

You have a very high opinion of yourself, and assume for no reason that others are inferior. This thread is filled with evidence that you should change your opinion of yourself. You should review it carefully.

What do you mean by "not acknowledging Nash"? I have no GTO expertise, but I certainly think GTO is real and accurate. You used a Nash-based program to come up with an unrealistic estimate for the opening range for the villain in your hand example. But I don't blame Nash for that; you were misusing your tools.

My last post asked an honest question - do you try to make very small range adjustments while playing?

And I made a valid point about exploitative play. Do you think I am incorrect?

This thread started with you laying out an example of a shove that you thought was a good play in a tournament.

You expected that people would say the shove was bad. Then you would prove that it was a good shove, and all the world would appreciate your genius.

Things did not go as planned for you. I don't think it was a good shove, and I demonstrated why. You were not able to make reasonable counterarguments. You made many unwarranted assumptions about me, and claimed I said things that I did not say. Now, since you are not basking in triumph, you are calling me a troll. You are a child.

 

[AviCKter]

You expected that people would say the shove was bad. Then you would prove that it was a good shove, and all the world would appreciate your genius.

Things did not go as planned for you. I don't think it was a good shove, and I demonstrated why. You were not able to make reasonable counterarguments. You made many unwarranted assumptions about me, and claimed I said things that I did not say. Now, since you are not basking in triumph, you are calling me a troll. You are a child.

THIS.

1. I tried reasoning, but is there any argument that would win over a CRAZY PERSON? I was stupid to even try.
2. Why isn't any of your poker sites listed on this forum?
3. Why are you here? What are you trying to get out of this forum?
4. Go check your own post: First I can make 11.58% as PFR (table PRF apparently, if that was a thing), he should open 9% of his range, then he should play exploitable (micro, mid stake you should play exploitable). How is 9% range exploitable range? Are you that DUMB or WHAT?
5. People who didn't counter-argue saying this or that, I acknowledged their POV, I didn't force them to see my POV. But you kept asking and I thought you genuinely wanted to learn more.
6. Finally, I have a $50K bankroll on Pokerstars, that I built from $10 investment on April '16. I don't need approval. The only reason I came back on Cardschat was because there were people here who helped me when I was struggling and this was a way of me giving back. As far as your opinion on me, I DON'T GIVE A SH*T!