what are the odds same set ?

ninjareal

ninjareal

Legend
Awards
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Hi all , recently i have been involved with rival having same set as me on the board (different kicker) , what are the odds of this?
It's annoying, i busted out once and took a hit but survived the other,
I'm sure it's almost as annoying as set-over-set hands .... takes quite an imagination to not go broke here right?
(Assuming we have no player image info)
Thanks

(P.s i don't feel too bad about it, and still undecided whether it's possible getting away from such situations )
 
Ronaldo7

Ronaldo7

Visionary
Hi all , recently i have been involved with rival having same set as me on the board (different kicker) , what are the odds of this?
It's annoying, i busted out once and took a hit but survived the other,
I'm sure it's almost as annoying as set-over-set hands .... takes quite an imagination to not go broke here right?
(Assuming we have no player image info)
Thanks

(P.s i don't feel too bad about it, and still undecided whether it's possible getting away from such situations )
First of all set is only when you have pair in your hands and third comes on board, so no chance for another :D ... You are talking about tris, and chances are 1/45 x2 or around 5% if i am correct :)
 
elflake

elflake

Rock Star
Ignoring what the card is, position, how likely each player was to see a flop with it, etc., just assuming two random cards for each player the chance of both making trips with a pair on the board is 0.00045%. But the chance of the board pairing is 49%, so 0.0002%, or 2 of every 10,000 hands. Taking into account what the pair is and the chance of two players seeing the flop with a tripping card in their hand, or staying in the hand for a pairing on the turn or river, the chance is obviously much lower.
I, and I think most players, call a set as when you have a pair in your hand. If the pair is on the board I just call it trips.
 
Last edited:
ninjareal

ninjareal

Legend
Awards
9
Hi, thanks for the feedback so far, ok so trips, basically then I'm thinking about the odds of the "case" card then,? I guess the odds decrease depending on how many people are still in the hand when the board pairs,
Should still be like 1 out of 20 perhaps? What could also affect is the value of the paired board, for example, if it's an A,K or Q , most likely if it was also on the flop and paired by the river, with bets preflop,flop & turn, we can guess a higher probability that someone has the case card yes ? (For them to preflop & flop bet&call , possibility of them having any if the top 3 cards is higher )
 
Ronaldo7

Ronaldo7

Visionary
Hi, thanks for the feedback so far, ok so trips, basically then I'm thinking about the odds of the "case" card then,? I guess the odds decrease depending on how many people are still in the hand when the board pairs,
Should still be like 1 out of 20 perhaps? What could also affect is the value of the paired board, for example, if it's an A,K or Q , most likely if it was also on the flop and paired by the river, with bets preflop,flop & turn, we can guess a higher probability that someone has the case card yes ? (For them to preflop & flop bet&call , possibility of them having any if the top 3 cards is higher )
You opponent has 2 of remaining 47 cards (on flop), 45 at end... So chance is 2 devided with 47(45)*100=4.2%
 
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