Just how swingy are poker tournaments? Collin and Katie Investigate (Video)

[Tammy]

So just how swingy are poker tournaments?nbsp; Probably a little (or a lot) swingier than you think.nbsp; And while we contemplate whether "swingier" is a real word, Collin Moshman and Katie Dozier dive into all the factorsnbsp; you should take into account to choose tournaments with less (or more?) variance.nbsp;

Which formats are highest variance?nbsp; Should the formats you play dictate your bankroll? Katie and Collin cover it all, and how to minimize your swings. Check it out, and let us know your thoughts or questions:nbsp;

 

[veltins]

Wonderful Tammy , this is absolutely great information . My challenge was relying on 100 buyins for big field MTTs with the size between 3k to 9k players, but that includes satties with the field size of 150 to 300 players. Now I will modify that a big as I am BRM nit.. Thanks for sharing this great insight video

 

[Nafor]

Again I agree. One wonders though which is really worse - to play a fast hyper tournament which doesn't really give time to pick your spots, or to sit 7 to 12 hours in front of the screen while your concentration is fading and eventually you'll make a bad move?
I'll have to check that web tool though, it seems useful.

 

[ph_il]

Excellent video and I really like the tournament variance calculator.

I mean no offense and I apologize if this has been mentioned before but while Collin was talking, all I heard was Kermit the Frog teaching me about tournament variance.

Love you, Collin.

 

[fundiver199]

Great video. My only addition is, that a winning player will have a much higher ROI in large field MTTs than in heads up SnGs or even 9 man SnGs, because each tournament provide more time to outplay the opposition. This will mitigate the effect of variance somewhat. But even if we plug in a ROI of 30%, there is still a high risk of losing over 1.000 tournaments, if the field is 1.000 players. And in corona virus times, many tournaments on pokerstars are way larger than that.

As for bankroll management I personally find, that 100 BI for 9 man SnGs and 300 BI for MTTs is a bit on the nitty side. Its probably good for professional players, but for part time players less will do, especially if they are willing to move down during a downswing. I would say maybe 50 BI for 9 man SnGs and 100 BI for MTTs but with the condition, that you keep your average buyin at less than 1%. So if for instance your bankroll is 500$, you should play a mixture of 2-5$ MTTs. A shot now and then is not a big deal either, as long as you keep it at no more than 2-3% of your bankroll.

 

[acidburnfx]

In the online game this is the big question, because most games are made exclusively for recreational players who play just for fun, that is, faster, less starting chips and also with a little tighter payout, different from tournaments with bigger buy-ins.

 

[Miguel Chacon]

thanks! very useful tool I will test now that I'm playing one tables Sit and Go's is very useful I have right now around 30 buy ins of the level 1$ let's see how that works for double or nothing SNGs... again thanks for the video

 

[Bozovicdj]

it's good info to have regarding how to adjust to MTTs with different player number, different skill level of an average player etc.
Still, this video seems like it was online poker oriented.
I'd wager that we don't need to be this conservative for live MTTs considering that player pool is significantly smaller!

 

[ksandr010]

Good video. Now I understand why we have to comply with bankroll management

 

[Luvart]

Very good video.

It's true that MTTs is a poker format with huge swings. It can take years till you make a really good deep run, and this is only if you are a decent player. But I would say that with draconian bankroll management. like 300-400 buyins, you are somewhat safe when it comes to MTTs.

Now, for the SnGs, I don't play them a lot nowadays.

 

[rdwr33]

When I start a tournament that has a good prize I am happy, but when I see the registrants I already see how difficult it will be to be among the winners. I started to use cardschat's odds Calculator in a few moments, most of the time it helped me a lot to make decisions. I am choosing tournaments with smaller prizes, but the chances will be greater. thanks for your strategies.

 

[JJP]

Very very swing . I guarantee if you play mtts long enough, at some point you will have a stretch that you didn't think was possible. Variance in these things is so high and there is a ton of luck involved in the big field mtts. You got to be a little sick in the head to enjoy it sometimes

Thanks for the vid !

 

[tagece]

very interesting. I use to play more Sit and Go's because they are faster than MTT's, but because they have less variance too. If I had the dram to be rich playing poker, maybe I could risk to compromise 10% of my bankroll in a major tournament, trying to win it. But I just want to not spend money in poker and, if possible be profitable enough to buy some small gifts for me. Some players are more prone to risk and I don't they are wrong, just think in a different way.
Anyways, this video exposed in a very didactic way the different variances for different formats of games.

 

[Tammy]

Wonderful Tammy , this is absolutely great information . My challenge was relying on 100 buyins for big field MTTs with the size between 3k to 9k players, but that includes satties with the field size of 150 to 300 players. Now I will modify that a big as I am BRM nit.. Thanks for sharing this great insight video

Glad this helped you!

Again I agree. One wonders though which is really worse - to play a fast hyper tournament which doesn't really give time to pick your spots, or to sit 7 to 12 hours in front of the screen while your concentration is fading and eventually you'll make a bad move?
I'll have to check that web tool though, it seems useful.

That is a very good point! I guess the question is, how do we quantify the time spent in a tournament. If we bust out before the money, is that time completely wasted, or maybe we can chalk that up to valuable experience?

Very very swing . I guarantee if you play mtts long enough, at some point you will have a stretch that you didn't think was possible. Variance in these things is so high and there is a ton of luck involved in the big field mtts. You got to be a little sick in the head to enjoy it sometimes

Thanks for the vid !

Well that is certainly true! No one is immune to downswings!

 

[ammje]

Thank you very much for the video, they always help me with my game, right now I am playing 9 player sits and go, and my game has improved a lot, thanks to videos like this one.

 

[Ventoman777]

Bankroll management is one of the most important areas of profitable poker. The most dispersed formats in my opinion are MTT 1k + tournaments. I believe that the standard recommendation for tournament players is at least 100 buy-ins of the working limit.

 

[mikeajax15]

Bankroll management is one of the most important areas of profitable poker. The most dispersed formats in my opinion are MTT 1k + tournaments. I believe that the standard recommendation for tournament players is at least 100 buy-ins of the working limit.

Yes, and when playing micro mtt with large fields even more in my opinion ! Maybe like 200 to 300 buyins if you dont wanna move down

 

[Syltan]

Very interesting calculator and intriguing calculations. For myself, I have already found the optimal number of people in the tournament 100-500. I wish everyone to decide on this, maybe this calculator will help)

 

[M13A13]

Great video to help us in poker tournaments, particularly I prefer regular tournaments over hipes and turbos, due to the variances.
Now I really liked the tournament calculator, I believe it is a tool that can help us make better decisions.

 

[Darwinjose14]

Excellent video

 

[Katie Dozier]

Thanks very much for the kind comments, guys! So glad you enjoyed the video!

 

[belizebum]

Great video as always. You two always make me enjoy learning. I will try using that calculator. My big thing is I dont care about the swings. I play the games I want, generally low stakes, and hope that my skill can get me to the money. Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesnt. Lots of luck is needed in the larger population tourneys. I really prefer the MTT's and forget about the SNG's which I know I can usually make the money. Maybe I will focus on those for the rest of the month.

 

[Coinuss]

I wonder how easy it is to calculate. I tried all types of the described game format, and I thought that I was good enough in HU, but this is just variance. Thank you, I will continue to improve my knowledge of poker. BRM tips are proven.

 

[Collin Moshman]

Thanks for the nice comments everyone!

Belizebum, that's a very good point too -- most people will want to minimize swings, but if you're happy embracing the variance that's great so how big a factor this is really depends on the individual

 

[CadoARAJ]

Excelent video, despite the MTT pays and avarage of 17 to 20% of the field, this variance is somente crazy and way much better to olay SNG.
Bice to think about it and play nore the sng, vut I still lime the MTT regular with 5k chips to not have a lot of variance.