Just how swingy are poker tournaments? Collin and Katie Investigate (Video)

makisaa

makisaa

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Tournaments are swingy and we see it as we play. There are maths involving, so this is natural. The tournament variance calculator is a helpfull tool where we can see these maths!
 
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natelearnspoker

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Confirming Tournament Swinginess

Thanks Collin and Katie for doing video. I've always known that variance is very much a part of tournament play, but appreciate the modeling of the expected outcomes over a longer period of time. I play in freerolls where the field is often more than a 1,000 players and the payout is is less than 10% of the field most of the time. I make it ITM maybe around 5% of the time so this video made me feel better about my playing ability.

Maybe I'll invest in tournaments where the field is much smaller.
 
cferdi

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Wow!
Thank you so much for this video. I feel so much better.
I do usually manage to get in the money, final table, even win, often enough to keep me happy - lately though, I've had such an awful run at MTTs, but this video has helped put it all into perspective and may well stop me from wanting to throw my computer thought the window (lol). You have saved my sanity - thank you!
 
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gryphon3005

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Thanks guys for another great video. I'm sure my 1000 player chart would more on the minus side than yours...at least it feels like that sometimes. Katie I don't think you want to go out for dinner with a player who wants less money. You will most likely be paying for both :)
 
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ssj3gokudbz

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Very informative video. Thank you!
 
deyvsonflp

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Video with good information. I didn't particularly know this calculator. I've done my own calculations hehehehe. Not understanding the variance of the tournaments you participate in is a huge mistake. Thanks for sharing this class!
 
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wizcup

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The first time watching the video (a day or two days ago), I am so confused. Mainly because somehow I misread or misheard that Smaller % of the field equals to higher swing.

As I watched it again, I facepalming hard. Your video is very clear in explaining swing. This give me idea on which SNG I should try to enter. Thanks a lot.
 
zam220

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Thanks for the video, I also think that math is always important, especially for poker players! The more players there are in mtt, the more mobile they are! The rule is that the larger the field, the faster the blinds structure and the game must be played more aggressively!
 
GIRFIED

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Interesting video.
One of the principles for a poker player is to understand how variance affects the games he participates in, no matter what modality you play, variance is something you can't escape.
 
Andrew Popov

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Great video. My only addition is, that a winning player will have a much higher ROI in large field MTTs than in heads up SnGs or even 9 man SnGs, because each tournament provide more time to outplay the opposition. This will mitigate the effect of variance somewhat. But even if we plug in a ROI of 30%, there is still a high risk of losing over 1.000 tournaments, if the field is 1.000 players. And in corona virus times, many tournaments on PokerStars are way larger than that.

As for bankroll management I personally find, that 100 BI for 9 man SnGs and 300 BI for MTTs is a bit on the nitty side. Its probably good for professional players, but for part time players less will do, especially if they are willing to move down during a downswing. I would say maybe 50 BI for 9 man SnGs and 100 BI for MTTs but with the condition, that you keep your average buyin at less than 1%. So if for instance your bankroll is 500$, you should play a mixture of 2-5$ MTTs. A shot now and then is not a big deal either, as long as you keep it at no more than 2-3% of your bankroll.

I will add that SnG provides several more opportunities for table selection and collecting statistics on opponents. In multi-table tournaments, you will be more likely to meet random players, especially now, when many recreational players have appeared due to quarantine. According to my observations on SnG tables, there are more regular players. But perhaps this is just a feature of individual poker rooms or some formats and limits of single-table tournaments.

Undoubtedly, compliance with BRM is important in any case, it is the basis of a successful game always.
 
bruno13xs

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each tournament has a different variation. I get used to playing a not-so-big tournament, which greatly reduces the variation during the game.
and having a tool that helps us is very good so we make the same mistakes during the game
 
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Tu Ng

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Great video! Thank you for sharing it. It explains a lot why I keep losing tournys.
 
freddydr87

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Im more a cash players so every muve i made i win or louse money,i allwais try to do the +EV play,so i will be winning, but in tournaments you can do the + EV play allwais but in one that you get badbeated or coolered you will louse your buy in.
 
Rosxana13

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Great video ! thank you for this explanation now I will have to adjust my bankroll management cause I'm pretty crazy and aggressive hehehe maybe if I apply this strategy I won't go to 0 so fast thanks Katie and Collin !
 
armoko

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Pretty useful video with good explanation how swingy tournaments can be. I will use now also this really good tool to calculate variance for different tournaments. It's really helpful tool. By playing big tournaments its really hard to reach final table while SnG's are more profitable and you have more chances to win.
 
shanest

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Great information in this video. I love the tournament variance calculator. Be cool to add a feature like that to CC. Keep up the videos
 
Poma Lekain

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There was a lot of confusion in this video.
30 BI for HU? And if you are not an expert in HU?
300 BI for MTT? Well, this is direct with a large margin in my opinion.
I liked the opinion of fundiver199 more.
Great video. My only addition is, that a winning player will have a much higher ROI in large field MTTs than in heads up SnGs or even 9 man SnGs, because each tournament provide more time to outplay the opposition. This will mitigate the effect of variance somewhat. But even if we plug in a ROI of 30%, there is still a high risk of losing over 1.000 tournaments, if the field is 1.000 players. And in corona virus times, many tournaments on PokerStars are way larger than that.

As for bankroll management I personally find, that 100 BI for 9 man SnGs and 300 BI for MTTs is a bit on the nitty side. Its probably good for professional players, but for part time players less will do, especially if they are willing to move down during a downswing. I would say maybe 50 BI for 9 man SnGs and 100 BI for MTTs but with the condition, that you keep your average buyin at less than 1%. So if for instance your bankroll is 500$, you should play a mixture of 2-5$ MTTs. A shot now and then is not a big deal either, as long as you keep it at no more than 2-3% of your bankroll.
 
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BOBO777BOBO

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I took the time to watch this video

I found it interesting but alittle confused

Or and for the record I'm happy with a small bank roll
Lol
Thanks for the share
 
Paya_31

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Hello, very good video. I liked how Collin and Catie interact. Excellent explanation about the tournament varication calculator, I am very clear about what they explained and I will use these tips. Health
 
GRIN281289

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Thank you very much for the free poker course and review of a very important point regarding bankroll management!
 
redboy23

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Wonderful information.

I am still waiting for my upswing!

For the most part I am aware of the bankroll guidelines and love the big multi-table tournaments. It feels like a lottery at times but it is great to know I have a stab at turning $1.10 to a couple hundred or even a thousand. I miss those tournaments.

It is good to get a reminder of variance and discipline. Sometimes, I get impatient and just go for broke. This is my Achilles heel.

I love the game and keep coming back. One day, I will get through - even though it is when I retire and have more time to study the game.

Good luck on that journey folks and riding that variance roller coaster! Fasten your seat belts - it is usually a bumpy ride.
 
BentleyBoy

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Great video guys and once again a great approach to keeping it to small bite sized chunks of information that can be readily consumed and used in day to day play.

Swing is important and players need to realise the risk and reward element associated to swing as shown in the two graphs. Of course this is all predicated on your anticipated ROI, so if you are a consistently bad player the figures won’t be the same, so overall, it’s great acknowledging swing, but as a player you also need to factor in your own skill and how that impacts on the graphs and your opportunity to get into that top 3rd where you are making serious gains.
 
Pimp 007 x

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Thanks a lot for posting these videos, I play poker for fun and sometimes don't understand certain terms such as variance, swings and ROIs, but these videos have really helped me "open my eyes" when it comes to tournament poker.
 
Chalada12

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So just how swingy are poker tournaments?nbsp; Probably a little (or a lot) swingier than you think.nbsp; And while we contemplate whether "swingier" is a real word, Collin Moshman and Katie Dozier dive into all the factorsnbsp; you should take into account to choose tournaments with less (or more?) variance.nbsp;

Which formats are highest variance?nbsp; Should the formats you play dictate your bankroll? Katie and Collin cover it all, and how to minimize your swings. Check it out, and let us know your thoughts or questions:nbsp;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gvN-my-iTds
Thanks Tammy for this great thread , just finished watching the video . it s great to have theses great people and great persons in CC community , like i said i a post before i m alaways watching CC youtube videos cuz they help me improve my game , and become even a more talented player .
 
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