If you're 99.99999% Sure the player Is stealing do you call On bubble?

[bbiase]

If you learn poker from poker school, they teach you fold even A-A in hand on bubble.
I was knocked out on bubble many times, just because i got a good hand.
So. 99.9999% make sure the other player was stealing, 100% fold in theory.

I can see the argument, but I'm not folding QQ+ to a big stack abuser. Maybe I fold QQ with 100 BBs left, but never KK+. I mean, I get the argument and this sould be the "moneymaking" play, but I tend to do analysis balancing the ICM analysis with the "play to win".

KK is over 80% against random cards, including hands like JT and QJ (with blockers to their backdoor outs). Just too much equity to fold in a MTT bubble. I'm likely to call. I can bust out, but MOST LIKELY I'm winning the pot and starting the ITM game with 202.5 BB - ABSOLUTELY DREAM SPOT.

Easy fold Abdi, for the same reason you got KO'd, suckouts happen.




Does that include tourneys where all the prizes are the same, would you still not fold.


:dontknow:

If the tourney have all the prizes equal, than ICM rules and I'm not putting 100 BB on the table on the bubble no matter aces. The "call anything with AA because it's +EV" is a "play to win" approach, but no matter what, with 100 BB in this scenario, you already won, you don't have to play pots anymore. Even aces put yourself to risk.

 

[bengemen]

if i need that money even with AA i fold if i kow that i wil be ITM.

 

[Zorba]

If the tourney have all the prizes equal, than ICM rules and I'm not putting 100 BB on the table on the bubble no matter aces. The "call anything with AA because it's +EV" is a "play to win" approach, but no matter what, with 100 BB in this scenario, you already won, you don't have to play pots anymore. Even aces put yourself to risk.

You get it, I was refering my question to ShoTyme.

 

[teepack]

If you've got 100 BB and you are close to the bubble, there's no reason to risk anything there. Even if you think the guy has 7-2 off, so what? The reward is great, of course, but the risk is everything.

Now if you're down to 10-15 BB, I think that's a snap call.

 

[naruto_miu]

Thanks everyone, I know where I messed up, It's my ego that part where the player/beast comes out. I was like "Meh, I know this dude Is full of It, and I'm gonna catch him and LOL his ass out the door", well my ass got lol'd out the door

 

[Lucothefish]

Snap fold, for 100bb you should also be folding aq there too.

And ignore the bubble in an mtt unless the money is meaningful.

 

[Carl Trooper]

If I am near positive they are stealing, but am still super deep, I am NOT calling off with A10.

Prob not calling off anything but QQ +

 

[rhombus]

Different scenarios
1) Its your regular $10 tourney where it pays $20 on the bubble
2) You satellited into a $500 tourney and the bubble pays $1000
3) Its a Satellite to another $500 tourney

scenarios can also change based on whether its a flat structure or whether its top heavy for 1 2 and 3

You say 99.99% sure so what if you have AT and they accidently flipped their cards and showed T2 ignoring suits you are 76% so does your answer change for 1, 2 or 3

Also if you have AA and they have T2 you are 87%. What are answers for 1 2 and 3
Spoiler option 3 is no brainer fold

 

[naruto_miu]

Different scenarios
1) Its your regular $10 tourney where it pays $20 on the bubble
2) You satellited into a $500 tourney and the bubble pays $1000
3) Its a Satellite to another $500 tourney

scenarios can also change based on whether its a flat structure or whether its top heavy for 1 2 and 3

You say 99.99% sure so what if you have AT and they accidently flipped their cards and showed T2 ignoring suits you are 76% so does your answer change for 1, 2 or 3

Also if you have AA and they have T2 you are 87%. What are answers for 1 2 and 3
Spoiler option 3 is no brainer fold

lol, ok well the quiz I found fuuny.

So to answer the question.

1) I'm snap calling It off, cuz I mean $20 Isn't really much.

2) I actually had to think about this one but I think best bet Is folding but again If It's like the wsop ME and I sattied Into It, and I got AA and a bigger stack shoves bubble, I honestly think I'd call It off here for the same reasons that Carl stated. Yet for 1k I think I would fold which makes NFS since money is so much smaller In comparison to the WSOP ME.

3) I LOL'd so hard with the spoilerz

 

[arahel_jazz]

if i need that money even with AA i fold if i kow that i wil be ITM.

If you "need" that money - you shouldn't be playing. Scared money makes for bad play.

As for OP, I'm with the group. Facing 100BB over the top with A 10 - insta fold.

 

[naruto_miu]

If you "need" that money - you shouldn't be playing. Scared money makes for bad play.

As for OP, I'm with the group. Facing 100BB over the top with A 10 - insta fold.

I doubt anyone Including myself gonna disagree with the consensus and that includes even me

 

[JPainTrainSicko]

This is an easy fold. Like you already rationalized the risk reward does not work here. At best your winning 2/3 times and the potential chips won don't have enough value here vs the potential loss.

 

[Chipsteal_jj]

99.99% sure? More like gut feeling.
Also playing A10o with 100bb just because you were fed up with him? Wouldn't recommend at all.

 

[vinylspiros]

snap fold. 100bigs!!! 100Bigs !!!! repeat after me, "100 bigs in a tournament".

Im folding JJ and QQ here sometimes.

snap fold imo. if he has 0-30 bigs maybe but even then i dont like it here. he isnt doing this with a9 most of the time. He could be jamming aces here to make it look like a bluff or ak to get called by the ace rag that your holding. also PP are very possible, you wanna be racing for your tourney life just so u dont lose a big blind?

Wait for a better spot, versus a smaller stack or versus this player with a stronger hand.

 

[Carl Trooper]

If you "need" that money - you shouldn't be playing. Scared money makes for bad play.

As for OP, I'm with the group. Facing 100BB over the top with A 10 - insta fold.

Unless you satty'd in... and its the Main Event or another huge tourney and the bubble is significant $$

Then you can fold any two cards if it means $15k or 0

Not saying I would, but def could see if I was broke and was a lock for 15k, im probably folding

 

[Thiocodin]

Dude is unpunishable for stealing with this hand, you need to wait for something better, not only on bubble. Even with total rubbish in his hand like J,8 (o) you win like 6 out 10 bets.

 

[underdog140]

Fold even if you are sure he is stealing. There is always a chance he actually woke up with a hand this time and if you do call you aren't going to be that far ahead, If you feel as he is pushing any ace than you can consider the call. But would be better to wait for another spot.

To be 99% sure he is stealing .. I will assume this player is making that type of play allot. So sit back wait for for a better hand to catch them with.

 

[joker131]

well I pushed against the big stack @ the bubble knowing he was trying to take my big blind I had6000 against his stack off 24000. the rest had 1200 and over. had to get them in sometime. me J T SUITED against 98. but he hit. that's poker and any 2 live cards can win,

 

[Frontiere]

I just had a situation come up where I was actually 99.9999% sure this player was stealing and It was for a 100+bb pot, where It was him and I BvB and I had 100bbs and he had like 150bbs. My hand was A10o and this player just ripped It In A.I pre just to get the blinds. Now I could easily fold and make sure I min cash, or I can call and make sure I get deeper In the game+make sure he doesn't do that B.S next time around. Would you call?

The reward vs risk Isn't really worth It IMO since 200bbs Isn't likely to get me to the FT but playing my small ball game, I can eventually get pot after pot and build a 200bb stack by taking my time. Yet If I call and get It now than I can get farther In the game, but the down side to It Is that If I call and lose I'm out, when I could've easily folded the hand, and guarantee ITM. Would you call knowing you're ahead, that Is the question?

If you are playing on pokerstars, you must fold for sure, Pokerstars program avard players with more chips no metter what card you have. Who got more chips - win in 85% of game.I see that so many time( over 10.000 times happend to me )And also I go all in against players with smaller ammount of chips and I win in 85% times. No matter what card you have , program will put you a winning flop.

 

[vinylspiros]

If you are playing on PokerStars, you must fold for sure, Pokerstars program avard players with more chips no metter what card you have. Who got more chips - win in 85% of game.I see that so many time( over 10.000 times happend to me )And also I go all in against players with smaller ammount of chips and I win in 85% times. No matter what card you have , program will put you a winning flop.

this is nonsense. sorry but this is just not true.

 

[Vladimir Smugly]

I do not understand one thing: where such confidence in his cards? 99% ??? If only one of us could be 99% sure in oponnents cards, he would have won 99% of the time. Or am I wrong?

 

[Frontiere]

this is nonsense. sorry but this is just not true.

O yea , its true. I spend lots of time on that on Pokerstars ,last month expecialy. I will be start a new thread here tommorow on that .

 

[Shumkoolie]

O yea , its true. I spend lots of time on that on Pokerstars ,last month expecialy. I will be start a new thread here tommorow on that .

That's called variance. It's absurd to suggest that the cards are NOT going to run in your favor just because you have a shorter stack than the person you're all-in against. Lots of times, where I was the big stack, I had the worst hand and lost, conversely, I've been the short stack and have won (it's gone the other way too in both scenarios). It's part of the game. It happens in live poker as well.

if i need that money even with AA i fold if i kow that i wil be ITM.

If you are playing scared like this, you're likely playing beyond your bankroll.

As for the another comment about never folding Aces, and this has been mentioned on other threads here and on other forums, perhaps the ONLY time it makes sense to fold Aces pre-flop would be in a situation where you're playing a satellite to a larger event, and there are (for example) 30 seats to that event, and there are 31 players left and you're in a comfortable spot chip wise. You have nothing to gain to play that hand, especially when there are some short stacks that will be all-in within the next orbit.

 

[MAdesG]

It depends of the cards that I have if I have AA KK or QQ I go all in ,but the rest of the hands I would with no problem and I don't worry if he steal because the only important thing at this point is cash

 

[Tosh_67]

I get a bit miffed when people constantly attack my blinds but when that money is on the table it's not yours anymore... I'll keep people honest now and then but I don't have a problem letting them go... If somebody steals my blinds I'll steal somebody else's !