If you're 99.99999% Sure the player Is stealing do you call On bubble?

naruto_miu

naruto_miu

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I just had a situation come up where I was actually 99.9999% sure this player was stealing and It was for a 100+bb pot, where It was him and I BvB and I had 100bbs and he had like 150bbs. My hand was A10o and this player just ripped It In A.I pre just to get the blinds. Now I could easily fold and make sure I min cash, or I can call and make sure I get deeper In the game+make sure he doesn't do that B.S next time around. Would you call?

The reward vs risk Isn't really worth It IMO since 200bbs Isn't likely to get me to the FT but playing my small ball game, I can eventually get pot after pot and build a 200bb stack by taking my time. Yet If I call and get It now than I can get farther In the game, but the down side to It Is that If I call and lose I'm out, when I could've easily folded the hand, and guarantee ITM. Would you call knowing you're ahead, that Is the question?
 
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UncleConRon

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My input.

Ace ten do'nt hit much its a 1 in 5 ratio. Since your not in for much, its best to fold. find your spot when ace ten do. It missed four times. Then bet.
 
Goldog

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Unfortunately you have to run the hand. Assuming you didn't have aces (and even if you did) there's a significant chance of losing.
 
naruto_miu

naruto_miu

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Unfortunately you have to run the hand. Assuming you didn't have aces (and even if you did) there's a significant chance of losing.

So you're saying we have to call?
 
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ShoTyme

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Most fold. Why get all your chips in for a 60/40 situation at this stage. Be patient.
 
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waterboy73

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I think it's a fold here. As you said, if you can outplay your opponents and build a healthy stack playing small ball, there is no need to risk it here. With 100 BB's I'm looking for a better spot to get my money in... Granted it is an odd shove by the villain, and you could very well be ahead. But as we all know, with the turn of one card it all could be over just that easily..
 
naruto_miu

naruto_miu

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I think it's a fold here. As you said, if you can outplay your opponents and build a healthy stack playing small ball, there is no need to risk it here. With 100 BB's I'm looking for a better spot to get my money in... Granted it is an odd shove by the villain, and you could very well be ahead. But as we all know, with the turn of one card it all could be over just that easily..


That was what was going on In my mind when He/She did that odd ball play
 
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trent32la

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More info needed.

I highly doubt a player is open ripping 100bbs with a very wide range, even on the bubble. It all depends on the buyin, the payout structure, how many people are left etc. Regardless, it's not optimal to stack off ATo for 100bbs regardless, let alone on a money bubble.
 
onondaga

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maybe im not right, but never call more than 3BB at bubble, depends on position and my cards. pre-flop allin is possible with KK+. in this situation ill make 100% fold no matter what opp have/
 
razva_raz94

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too many BBs to call that shove i guess
 
MasterTur

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fold, you have 100bb, you can play a lot of hands better, your opponent could have a lot of better hands than you.
You will lose 60% of times this hand. Why risk everything if you can play anothers hands much better than this one?

You have 100BB not 10BB.
 
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6bet me

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With 10bb I would contemplate calling if I believed that he was just stealing with any Kx or Ax hand.

With 100bb, not a chance in hell am I calling that with ATo.
 
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canabero

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A 10 is not as strong as it seems , it would be different is that guy was rising 2x or 3x blinds, then you could make him fold. and after all it's not recommendable to take high risks when you have more than 50bb.
 
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vwls

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How were you so sure that they were stealing?
 
smallfrie

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With 100bbs close to the bubble or far far away from the bubble it is a fold. With that many bbs you can wait for way better situations. With 100bbs I would be building stack pre-flop raises and on post flop play not even thinking about double up from allins. It is not even close to a call it is a fold all day every day with 100bbs. :)
 
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bbiase

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ATs vs 32o: 68% equity for ATs pre.
ATs vs any two cards: 63% equity for ATs

You're basically winning only 2 out of 3 times against a random card. You have a huge tournament equity to get it in for 100 BBs, with a hand that is not even in that great shape. I probably fold hands like 88 or 99, which are hands that are in a much better shape against random cards (99 being 85% against 23o and 70% against any two cards), and I would possibly fold AK too.

Depending on the tournament structure, you could have like 2 or 3 hours alive in a tournament without even playing a single hand.

CLEAR fold. I don't know If I should call this 10-20 BB. A better question, if you ask me. Anyone?
 
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Bogdan Pyts

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Fold, why call? Will yet many profit situation
 
naruto_miu

naruto_miu

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I thank you all for the input, I wish I honestly considered all of this, I did call, the player showed A5o and flop we both hit an ace, turn they hit the 5 and that's all she wrote. I did think about folding It, since It was close to bubble but I mean I seen this player just abusing the bubble over and over and again and again. So I got fed up and wanted his/her stack but they ended up getting my stack instead.
 
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dejan85

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if is not neccery to risk usually not,but if Im strong I will play normally no matter is bubble....
 
westside1950

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In poker you can never be 99.99999% sure ;)
 
dino

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well naruto, you just wan't lucky enough since the 5 showed up and you're lost.
I would call to, thinking same as you, that the other player is trying to force table and steal some chips.
Better luck next time.
Even if you're 99.9% sure, if you're not lucky, well....
Poker is game of skill, and luck is part of the game to.

P.S. is that from any CC tournament??
:D
May be we all know that player.:)
 
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dturner100

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I've been playing poker for a very long time.
Many times I've been 99.99% sure that my opponent was making a steal, but never was I sure that he was holding a hand that couldn't find me dead with A/10o.

I've gotten upset about this situation many times.
At it's best I'm holding a premium hand, and worst I'm holding a marginal drawing hand like A/10o.
I've made the push a few times and walked away good but more times than not it blows up and I'm actually facing KK, AA, or even the dreaded 22...

Only 99.99% I see here is the fold unless you have a lot of hand history on this guy and you're still gonna lose a few when he flips 7/2...
 
niphon56

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If you learn poker from poker school, they teach you fold even A-A in hand on bubble.
I was knocked out on bubble many times, just because i got a good hand.
So. 99.9999% make sure the other player was stealing, 100% fold in theory.
 
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ShoTyme

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If you learn poker from poker school, they teach you fold even A-A in hand on bubble.
I was knocked out on bubble many times, just because i got a good hand.
So. 99.9999% make sure the other player was stealing, 100% fold in theory.

I don't care what the poker school says. I'm not folding bullets. I'm OK losing with the best hand. Sometimes that's the way it goes. I play to win. But your point is still sound. Get past the bubble without rushing everything if possible.

And yes I've lost with bullets near the bubble plenty of times. Conversely they've propelled me to wins as well.
 
Zorba

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Easy fold Abdi, for the same reason you got KO'd, suckouts happen.


I don't care what the poker school says. I'm not folding bullets.

Does that include tourneys where all the prizes are the same, would you still not fold.


:dontknow:
 
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