Can ICM make you fold AAs?

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ph_il

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I’ve folded aces several times and only when we were 1-2 players away from bubble and I was short stacked. Otherwise I just shove them all the time.
so, you would fold aces for a min cash pay jump, but would not fold them for an extra $1450?
 
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unless i have a huge stack lead over cutoff and don't risk busting out or putting myself in a critical 10 bbs or fewer stack size, it's an easy fold 100% of the time.

at .05 bbs remaining, being able to jump up 1 or 2 pay spots is worth it over picking up 3 bbs. even if you still end up busting 4th, increasing your odds of getting jump is still 100% better than picking up an extra 2.5 bbs. but even at 50 bbs, being practically guaranteed a pay jump is worth folding aa. if you lose, you're out in 4th when, at 50 bbs, you're almost guaranteed 2nd place. also, folding doesn't put you in a bad spot: if cu win, they pick up ~8 bbs. if button wins, you still a huge chip lead in 2nd place.

At 50bb I gotta disagree. It put you in a great position to win it all. If you win, you would be 100+bb against 50bb.

You are 80% favorite to win against any hand the large stack has.
 
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ph_il

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At 50bb I gotta disagree. It put you in a great position to win it all. If you win, you would be 100+bb against 50bb.

You are 80% favorite to win against any hand the large stack has.
understandable if 50 bbs is a nit fold but, with the pay jumps, im not risking a chance to bust out before either short stack even if i have a dominating hand. at a final table, my motivation is the profit and i'll make nit folds to put myself in a better spot to increase my payout.

as said, i'm not putting myself more into a disadvantage than i am now if i fold and go heads up. But practically solidifying a 2nd place spot with still a fighting chance (only 2:1 under) is better than risking a 20% chance to bust out before 2nd place. Odds are very slim of it happening but i'd rather go for the near gtd 2nd place spot.

if bottom stacks were closer to even, say 25bb-50bb, then its a call.

 
olewerkrd

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Personally, I would not have discarded in this situation. After all, this is poker, and with a pair of AA it is best to play.
 
Evan Jarvis

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being a hypothetical situation I would never fold Aces in this situation. Top 4 Is not good? :)
would have to have the hypothetical buy-in, then I would think more about
I think this thing of "I fold or no...") is more common in the bubble, than in a FT.


Great insight! Bubble factor is indeed less of a consideration on the final table than on the bubble. While it still matters, it is not quite as pronounced.

Learned that one in the BBZ ICM course, which is very solid btw!

I think I call here unless I don't have money for rent otherwise and that $2k jump would be a life changer. One of those spots where the real money implications of the money can make a difference (and why knowing your opponents financial situations is a complete gamechanger!)
 
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blix177

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Personally, I would not have discarded in this situation. After all, this is poker, and with a pair of AA it is best to play.


But each move can be broken down to a dollar amount EV move. Suppose we input it in a solver, given the range and likely outcome. Run in it 1,000,000 times.

If it shows folding AA is a +$2850 EV move, while calling with AA is a $2,700 EV move, then we know the net difference of the 2 move is $150 and one is better than the other.

Note: The numbers are totally hypothetical, the folding can just as likely be wrong move.
 
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Airles17

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The only way to double AA pre-flop is by satellite, as long as you are guaranteed a spot.
 
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How little chips you would have to hold to fold AAs in this position?

Player 4 players remaining. Out of 2000 entries.

Cutoff l00BB stack shoves.
Button Calls all-in with 6bb
Hero sitting on SB . holding AA, what stack size you will fold?
Big Blind, blinded in with less than 1bb

Pay: 1st. $13,180 2nd $8,475, 3rd $6,050, 4th $4,600

Lets say you have .65BB, if you fold, you will be down to .05BB but alive.

Or if you win this hand you will have. 3BB. Which is some serious handicap against 99bb.

Who would fold their aces? Hope for a 50%-100% pay jump. There is a chance there is no pay jump where, BB wins all, button wins against cutoff.


You fold the AA here every time if the BB has you covered (ie you have literally no chips and the double up doesn’t help you get 2nd or 1st). If you fold and he busts you finish 3rd and get an extra 1.4k.

If you have both players covered then it’s an obv call as maximising chance of knockouts and you’re still in no matter the result.

If between the BB and Button stacks then call as you reduce BBs equity and give yourself the best chance to go after 2nd place (or fluke the win heads up)
 
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First off you should never be blinding down to less than two big blind, second nothing is guaranteed, I'd rather go out fighting than blind out to nothing. I'd be extremely happy with my results there. Everyone is entitled to their own play and opinion, that's why the game is so great. There is more than one way to play a hand which may result in many different outcomes.

Unless something happened to me the hand before I am not in this situation with that small of a stack. As described I am still trying to get as many chips as I can. AA afford us the best possibility to accumulate chips in this spot. I am gladly putting in my chips and hollering at the screen to hold. :)
 
balo

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It depends how big the money is for me, are we talking big money I could fold AA easily.
 
blueskies

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I am never folding AA to a shove against one opponent. Happy to get it in anytime.

Maybe if I was absolutely assured of being able to fold into the money and the payoff with just min cashing was big.

That said, I did lose a CC freeroll on the bubble. I had AA on bb and sb shoved. He had J7 and beat me by flopping a J and hitting a 7 on the river. It was total online magic BS but what are ya gonna do. Sith happens. (I haven't cashed in that freeroll since)
 
roger perkins

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How little chips you would have to hold to fold AAs in this position?

Player 4 players remaining. Out of 2000 entries.

Cutoff l00BB stack shoves.
Button Calls all-in with 6bb
Hero sitting on SB . holding AA, what stack size you will fold?
Big Blind, blinded in with less than 1bb

Pay: 1st. $13,180 2nd $8,475, 3rd $6,050, 4th $4,600

Lets say you have .65BB, if you fold, you will be down to .05BB but alive.

Or if you win this hand you will have. 3BB. Which is some serious handicap against 99bb.

Who would fold their aces? Hope for a 50%-100% pay jump. There is a chance there is no pay jump where, BB wins all, button wins against cutoff.
Ok here is situation where I may fold AA preflop. Im not sure yet so Im going to look at the logic and make my decision.
I have 4600 locked (call or no call)
CALL
CU beats me I have 4600
BU beats me I have 4600
BB beats me I have 4600
I win and the CU wins the side pot I have 8475 a 3875 jump
I win and the BU wins the side pot I have 6050 a 1450 jump

NO CALL
CU wins I have 8475 or a 3875 jump
BU wins I have 6050 or a 1450 jump
BB wins I have 4600 assuming I will probably blind out next hand

So a call has 2 out of 5 possibilities of gaining $$$ 40% and a no call has a 2 out of 3 chance of gaining $$$ or 66%. Now that is strictly looking at a chance to gain not the probability of winning the hand. So yes I think the smart move here is to fold.
WOW I never thought I would come to that conclusion. This only assumes that I am facing a scenario where 1 hand can jump me more than 1 place and Im starting with 3BBs or less. If the CU folds and everyone else is all in I call every time.
 
Alekxandrovi3

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AA is correct only if you play a satellite and you have already guaranteed yourself a victory or if there are a lot of opponents in the bank. So say the professionals. Resetting AA is not an ICM solution. If you are not in the situation described above. This is already a bad game.
 
Luvepoker

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You need to think about ICM but this is aces. I am never folding here no mater what my stack size is..
 
bkniefel

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That far in the tournament life, the ICM almost becomes irrelevant for myself. Especially with the best hand in poker. There is no point in folding here.
 
roger perkins

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That far in the tournament life, the ICM almost becomes irrelevant for myself. Especially with the best hand in poker. There is no point in folding here.
I agree it is hard to fold AA and Im probably not folding here but the math says a call has a 40% chance of gaining value and a fold has a 66% chance of gaining value. At this point and under this scenario it is economically better to fold AA. In a tournament your goal is to win the most money not just to win a hand. Per my post above here is how I came up with those numbers.
I have 4600 locked (call or no call)
CALL
CU beats me I have 4600
BU beats me I have 4600
BB beats me I have 4600
I win and the CU wins the side pot I have 8475 a 3875 jump
I win and the BU wins the side pot I have 6050 a 1450 jump

NO CALL
CU wins I have 8475 or a 3875 jump
BU wins I have 6050 or a 1450 jump
BB wins I have 4600 assuming I will probably blind out next hand


So a call has 2 out of 5 possibilities of gaining $$$ 40% and a no call has a 2 out of 3 chance of gaining $$$ or 66%. Now that is strictly looking at a chance to gain not the probability of winning the hand.
 
ammje

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Hello, I would fold AA in this situation, if three players go all in, and they all have more chips than I do.
For example, I don't know if you saw player bencb789 fold KK at yesterday's final table, the prize jumps were 100k.:D
 
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folding aces on the bubble with a short stack (unless u literally have like… 2BB) is a lot worse than folding them at the FT with significant payout implications. Like if you have 15BB on the bubble yeah you might bust out early, but odds are you’re going to end up with like 33BB or so which is setting you up to actually have a shot of a deep run with multiple pay jumps.

In this example at the final table you’re just not parlaying yourself up to 2nd place or something. You get the 1 payjump which is probably like 5x or more of the buy-in itself. Makes way more sense to fold there then on the bubble. (I’m assuming the people who say they’d fold on the bubble only have like 10-20ishBB stacks not 1BB. obviously it’s a fold there as well). But if you’re folding aces with 10BB on the bubble you can’t afford to play the tournament you’re in.
 
MazzErati

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I have a friend who doesn't drop AA even when 1 to prizes, and you know what? There was once a $500 minimum prize at stake, and he didn't drop it and got kicked out... I still tell him for that situation :D

In my opinion on the MTT there are situations when you need to reset even AA
 
Amanda A

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Would only muck them in a saty if on the bubble and big stack shoves and there are a couple of players with shorter stacks than mine.
 
yuriko oyama

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For the icm involved, I would fold easily, pair of aces is not an invincible holy grail, because I've already lost several times with it.
the fold is fair and well calculated, if it goes wrong, karma.
but in my modest view, a very fair and honest move.
 
kon44

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How little chips you would have to hold to fold AAs in this position?

Player 4 players remaining. Out of 2000 entries.

Cutoff l00BB stack shoves.
Button Calls all-in with 6bb
Hero sitting on SB . holding AA, what stack size you will fold?
Big Blind, blinded in with less than 1bb

Pay: 1st. $13,180 2nd $8,475, 3rd $6,050, 4th $4,600

Lets say you have .65BB, if you fold, you will be down to .05BB but alive.

Or if you win this hand you will have. 3BB. Which is some serious handicap against 99bb.

Who would fold their aces? Hope for a 50%-100% pay jump. There is a chance there is no pay jump where, BB wins all, button wins against cutoff.
I defo fold, I know my heads up is on point. If I ended up busting I’d be livid with those jumps
 
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Poker Orifice

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I don’t fold, I know my heads up is on point. If I ended up busting I’d be livid with those jumps
you'd be headsup with 3bb's vs. 90bb. You must be a headsup guru

Personally I think I fold in this spot (it can be worked out but I am too lazy to do so at the moment).
 
kon44

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you'd be headsup with 3bb's vs. 90bb. You must be a headsup guru

Personally I think I fold in this spot (it can be worked out but I am too lazy to do so at the moment).
Omg what I typo lol. "defo" FOLD FOLD FOLD haha
 
kon44

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How little chips you would have to hold to fold AAs in this position?

Player 4 players remaining. Out of 2000 entries.

Cutoff l00BB stack shoves.
Button Calls all-in with 6bb
Hero sitting on SB . holding AA, what stack size you will fold?
Big Blind, blinded in with less than 1bb

Pay: 1st. $13,180 2nd $8,475, 3rd $6,050, 4th $4,600

Lets say you have .65BB, if you fold, you will be down to .05BB but alive.

Or if you win this hand you will have. 3BB. Which is some serious handicap against 99bb.

Who would fold their aces? Hope for a 50%-100% pay jump. There is a chance there is no pay jump where, BB wins all, button wins against cutoff.
Just re read your question and didn’t directly answer it lol. Well, those jumps are massive and although we have AA me personally I’d have to have at least double the larger stack to call
 
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