Can ICM make you fold AAs?

[blix177]

How little chips you would have to hold to fold AAs in this position?

Player 4 players remaining. Out of 2000 entries.

Cutoff l00BB stack shoves.
Button Calls all-in with 6bb
Hero sitting on SB . holding AA, what stack size you will fold?
Big Blind, blinded in with less than 1bb

Pay: 1st. $13,180 2nd $8,475, 3rd $6,050, 4th $4,600

Lets say you have .65BB, if you fold, you will be down to .05BB but alive.

Or if you win this hand you will have. 3BB. Which is some serious handicap against 99bb.

Who would fold their aces? Hope for a 50%-100% pay jump. There is a chance there is no pay jump where, BB wins all, button wins against cutoff.

 

[Edu1]

being a hypothetical situation I would never fold Aces in this situation. Top 4 Is not good?
would have to have the hypothetical buy-in, then I would think more about
I think this thing of "I fold or no...") is more common in the bubble, than in a FT.

 

[bempassado]

Maybe I could think of doubling AA in a pot where there were 3, 4 players all in and I would fall into the bubble. But I rarely doubled AA.

 

[SightUnseen]

Never folding Aces. If you're folding Aces in a tournament you're playing out of your comfort zone. As long as you're getting it in ahead you're making no mistakes. Run the cards. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. Play to win!

 

[royalflush122096]

I am also never folding my pocket aces because there is little hope of a pay jump if I were folding Aces with <1BB’s

 

[Parsorandini]

Never folding Aces. If you're folding Aces in a tournament you're playing out of your comfort zone. As long as you're getting it in ahead you're making no mistakes. Run the cards. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. Play to win!

Sorry but this is just not true, that's the whole point of ICM. Sometimes even if you know you're more than likely ahead, ICM makes it an easy fold. No idea about the AA question by the way, just needed to make this clear for anyone reading this.

 

[Tolyanchemp]

obviously, preflop, throwing aces is not wise in any situation and any position. in situations of straight draws and flush draws this is likely. no need to think with money, just make fewer mistakes

 

[Dailon Arroyo Blandon]

In that hypothetical situation I would never fold with "AA", I think the only real situation in which I would consider folding "AA" would be that we were in the bubble and that I had very few chips ...!

 

[vajavava]

Yes I can fold AA sometimes.Is good to stay in tournament dont risk your bankroll for one hand

 

[Scroooob]

How little chips you would have to hold to fold AAs in this position?

Player 4 players remaining. Out of 2000 entries.

Cutoff l00BB stack shoves.
Button Calls all-in with 6bb
Hero sitting on SB . holding AA, what stack size you will fold?
Big Blind, blinded in with less than 1bb

Pay: 1st. $13,180 2nd $8,475, 3rd $6,050, 4th $4,600

Lets say you have .65BB, if you fold, you will be down to .05BB but alive.

Or if you win this hand you will have. 3BB. Which is some serious handicap against 99bb.

Who would fold their aces? Hope for a 50%-100% pay jump. There is a chance there is no pay jump where, BB wins all, button wins against cutoff.

I will only fold aa in a satellite. In the situation you describe, anyone who folds aa is either a chicken or a liar. What are you waiting for, and why would you let your chips go down to 0.65 bb?

 

[SightUnseen]

Sorry but this is just not true, that's the whole point of ICM. Sometimes even if you know you're more than likely ahead, ICM makes it an easy fold. No idea about the AA question by the way, just needed to make this clear for anyone reading this.

His question referred to would you fold Aces, and a little about ICM. But ICM doesn't exist if you're the shortest stack at the table, the bigger stacks have ICM to worry about, not you. If you're folding Aces with <1bb and would rather just blind out you're not playing correctly. By even getting down to <1bb you're making huge mistakes, you can't expect to win long term playing like this, you need to gamble at times to acquire chips, you just can't blind out and pray to get payjump. Anyone whos folding aces in that spot should just find another hobby. The game of poker isn't about the $$$, it's about making the correct decisions, $$$ is a reward for playing good or getting lucky. To each their own, if you're folding Aces there good luck long term.

 

[Parsorandini]

His question referred to would you fold Aces, and a little about ICM. But ICM doesn't exist if you're the shortest stack at the table, the bigger stacks have ICM to worry about, not you. If you're folding Aces with <1bb and would rather just blind out you're not playing correctly. By even getting down to <1bb you're making huge mistakes, you can't expect to win long term playing like this, you need to gamble at times to acquire chips, you just can't blind out and pray to get payjump. Anyone whos folding aces in that spot should just find another hobby. The game of poker isn't about the $$$, it's about making the correct decisions, $$$ is a reward for playing good or getting lucky. To each their own, if you're folding Aces there good luck long term.

Yes i agree with you but that's not relevant to what I quoted which was basically saying in general to never take ICM into account.

 

[fundiver199]

This could possible be a fold, if we are shorter than big blind. If we cover big blind, it has to be a call for two reasons:

1) We can knock out big blind ourselfes
2) If both we and big blind are knocked out, we finish third

 

[blix177]

His question referred to would you fold Aces, and a little about ICM. But ICM doesn't exist if you're the shortest stack at the table, the bigger stacks have ICM to worry about, not you. If you're folding Aces with <1bb and would rather just blind out you're not playing correctly. By even getting down to <1bb you're making huge mistakes, you can't expect to win long term playing like this, you need to gamble at times to acquire chips, you just can't blind out and pray to get payjump. Anyone whos folding aces in that spot should just find another hobby. The game of poker isn't about the $$$, it's about making the correct decisions, $$$ is a reward for playing good or getting lucky. To each their own, if you're folding Aces there good luck long term.

But when we talk in terms of expected value (EV), would certain situation make more sense to make the negative EV chip move, but it would be a substantial positive EV move in relative dollars.

Because the situation I mention with 4 players AA is 63% favorite to win the hand. Assuming you have the least amount of chips, you are at a 37% chance of coming in 4th.

If you fold, you have a 27% chance coming in 4th, 42% chance coming 3rd and 27.9% coming in 2nd. ( Adjusted to the 6BB going in with top 20% of his range)

 

[SightUnseen]

But when we talk in terms of expected value (EV), would certain situation make more sense to make the negative EV chip move, but it would be a substantial positive EV move in relative dollars.

Because the situation I mention with 4 players AA is 63% favorite to win the hand. Assuming you have the least amount of chips, you are at a 37% chance of coming in 4th.

If you fold, you have a 27% chance coming in 4th, 42% chance coming 3rd and 27.9% coming in 2nd. ( Adjusted to the 6BB going in with top 20% of his range)

Either way, you should never be blinding out to < 1 big blind. If you fold and they win you're still in the same spot. But if you call and win or lose atleast you gave yourself a chance. The principle of playing tournaments is surviving, but not blinding away your stack to never give yourself a chance. I guess the main factor is how much does the money mean to you, do you want to just fold and pray they bust. At that point you should be satisfied with your ROI in the tournament and accept the outcome of the Aces. If not you just blind out. I'm never folding in that spot much less blinding off my stack to < 1 big blind. You're in last place, sure the other player can bust but you just can't fold, just my opinion. To each their own.

 

[ph_il]

unless i have a huge stack lead over cutoff and don't risk busting out or putting myself in a critical 10 bbs or fewer stack size, it's an easy fold 100% of the time.

at .05 bbs remaining, being able to jump up 1 or 2 pay spots is worth it over picking up 3 bbs. even if you still end up busting 4th, increasing your odds of getting jump is still 100% better than picking up an extra 2.5 bbs. but even at 50 bbs, being practically guaranteed a pay jump is worth folding aa. if you lose, you're out in 4th when, at 50 bbs, you're almost guaranteed 2nd place. also, folding doesn't put you in a bad spot: if cu win, they pick up ~8 bbs. if button wins, you still a huge chip lead in 2nd place.

 

[ph_il]

His question referred to would you fold Aces, and a little about ICM. But ICM doesn't exist if you're the shortest stack at the table, the bigger stacks have ICM to worry about, not you. If you're folding Aces with <1bb and would rather just blind out you're not playing correctly. By even getting down to <1bb you're making huge mistakes, you can't expect to win long term playing like this, you need to gamble at times to acquire chips, you just can't blind out and pray to get payjump. Anyone whos folding aces in that spot should just find another hobby. The game of poker isn't about the $$$, it's about making the correct decisions, $$$ is a reward for playing good or getting lucky. To each their own, if you're folding Aces there good luck long term.

so, you'd rather give up a nearly guaranteed chance to pick up an extra $2550-$3875 for 2.5 bbs?

 

[SightUnseen]

so, you'd rather give up a nearly guaranteed chance to pick up an extra $2550-$3875 for 2.5 bbs?

First off you should never be blinding down to less than two big blind, second nothing is guaranteed, I'd rather go out fighting than blind out to nothing. I'd be extremely happy with my results there. Everyone is entitled to their own play and opinion, that's why the game is so great. There is more than one way to play a hand which may result in many different outcomes.

 

[ph_il]

First off you should never be blinding down to less than two big blind, second nothing is guaranteed, I'd rather go out fighting than blind out to nothing. I'd be extremely happy with my results there. Everyone is entitled to their own play and opinion, that's why the game is so great. There is more than one way to play a hand which may result in many different outcomes.

i agree to the not blinding down to <2 bbs, but i'm just going along with the original post. who knows, maybe i just lost a pot vs button and .65 is all i have left.

hey, if you'd rather get it in with aa for +2.5 bbs and risk taking 4th instead of going for easy pay jumps, that's totally cool. no hate towards your game at all. i just mentioned it as something to think about in that spot: is it worth giving up an extra $1450+? i can't think of a situation where i'm nearly guaranteed an extra $1450+ in 5 seconds by just folding a hand. [my math was off in my first reply]

vs 3 players, aa has ~65% equity, iirc. so you have a 35% chance of busting out and taking 4th. if you fold, it's nearly a 99% chance you pay jump at least 1 spot with a chance at jumping up 2 spots as the shortest chip stack, which is huge. i dont think your odds of a pay jump is a true 99% but it's highly unlikely both short stacks survive, so it's practically guaranteed. so you're looking at a 35% risk vs a 1% risk for an extra $1450, minimum.

looking at it another way: if i were to give you a 100-side dice and say "you can choose either hit a 1-99 and i'll give you $6050 but if you hit 100, you only get $4600. or you can choose to hit a 1-65 and i'll give you $6050, but if you hit 66-100, you only get $4600". now which would you choose? does it make sense to pick the option where you have a 35% chance to miss out on an extra $1450? i don't think it does.

but, again, if you'd rather not fold aa and not take easy pay jumps, that's 100% cool. gl at the tables.

 

[ph_il]

I am also never folding my pocket aces because there is little hope of a pay jump if I were folding Aces with <1BB’s

what do you mean? you're practically guaranteed a pay jump if you fold in this situation.

 

[run187]

Only time id be folding aa is if there were short stacks and I was one of them
And we were hand for hand ..

 

[ph_il]

I will only fold aa in a satellite. In the situation you describe, anyone who folds aa is either a chicken or a liar. What are you waiting for, and why would you let your chips go down to 0.65 bb?

lol call me a chicken or a liar but i fold aa in that spot for 1 or 2 pay jumps.

 

[TeUnit]

Think situations where ICM would tell you to fold AA will probably show up the most in formats like double or nothings. If there were 6 players left, pays 5, the short stacks have very few chips, the big stack shoves all in and you are in 2nd- you got to fold.

 

[chilindrodolar]

brother, if I fold them, it is better to risk before you regret, then lose against worse hands, I make a call, and throw them to the ground. !!!

 

[natelearnspoker]

I’ve folded aces several times and only when we were 1-2 players away from bubble and I was short stacked. Otherwise I just shove them all the time.