Fold equity spot - thoughts

[BrentD22]

1st off I don't think people should argue over various analysis. We can all learn something from how others think about the game. I think everyone had some interesting things to say. Some advice was crap, but still useful to understand how others think about the game.

Understand when I post hands I'm not looking for others to just agree or disagree. There is no point of that. Because 100% of game dynamic can't be known by others. I am more looking to understand how others think. Calling each other names is without question not what I was looking for.

There are some math principals that make some move wrong without argument. The others moves there are more gray areas. Regardless this move is profitable over long run however risky.

What hand range would you have called off that many chips with?

At this point in poker I never have fear of busting out. I make the move that I feel will help me win the most $. Sometimes thats playing passive other time it's playing super aggressive. In my experience when ur not sure what to do the aggressive line is more often correct than a weaker line.

Putting pressure on other players to fold when u have big draws allows u to win hand 2 ways. The fold u win or u get there and win.

Seeing I had plenty of fold equity with a hand that is flipping vs. Villains range and chips in pot I'm completely comfortable with my move.

 

[-Phil Ivey27]

1st off I don't think people should argue over various analysis. We can all learn something from how others think about the game. I think everyone had some interesting things to say. Some advice was crap, but still useful to understand how others think about the game.

Understand when I post hands I'm not looking for others to just agree or disagree. There is no point of that. Because 100% of game dynamic can't be known by others. I am more looking to understand how others think. Calling each other names is without question not what I was looking for.

There are some math principals that make some move wrong without argument. The others moves there are more gray areas. Regardless this move is profitable over long run however risky.

What hand range would you have called off that many chips with?

At this point in poker I never have fear of busting out. I make the move that I feel will help me win the most $. Sometimes thats playing passive other time it's playing super aggressive. In my experience when ur not sure what to do the aggressive line is more often correct than a weaker line.

Putting pressure on other players to fold when u have big draws allows u to win hand 2 ways. The fold u win or u get there and win.

Seeing I had plenty of fold equity with a hand that is flipping vs. Villains range and chips in pot I'm completely comfortable with my move.

I actually take back what I said, I misread the hand and did not know you had the spade draw. This brings on a totally different analysis of the hand.

This play if iffy, I like it a lot A LOT more in cash games. This is where pushing your slight edges like being 54% to win will show you good profit in the long run, especially along with fold equity.

Now in a tournament it is a totally different strategy and this is a close move.

Personally, I feel like I'm gonna outplay these guys later on anyways, so there's really no reason for me to go risking my tournament life with a substantial stack when I am only going to be a 54% favorite, even along with fold equity. Of course a simple argument to that would be that your chances of going deep in the tournament greatly increase if you win this big pot, and you are going to be a mathematical favorite. It is player dependent I suppose, also dependent on your reads on the players, table image, etc. But I think I might just muck the hand.

 

[cjatud2012]

Thank you Brent for ending the derail.

Let's keep this on track please.

 

[baudib1]

OP is representing a draw and only a draw. I think if you play your sets this way it's pretty bad on a board like this.

I'm not sure I love )or hate) the play of either player, but basically after the reraise all the money has to go in. Folding TPTK in a donkament after putting in a 22 BB raise when OP never has an overpair is pretty spewtastic.

Looking for a better spot in donkaments is wrong. Push any edge you have and get the money in good or bad.

 

[mrmonkey]

What was villain's stack size? I may have overlooked it being said, but I didn't see it mentioned anywhere and imo it's very important when making this play.

FE is definitely higher if the outcome of the hand cripples villain. If she still has at least 20bb after the hand, calls from bottom of villain's range are probably much more likely and takes away a lot of our FE.

 

[bonflizubi]

Seeing I had plenty of fold equity with a hand that is flipping vs. Villains range and chips in pot I'm completely comfortable with my move.

This is where you are wrong and why i showed teh stove numbers.

You figured that she'd laydown one pair hands here. I'd agree she doesn't ever show up with 2 pr on that board.

However, she is repping an overpair, TPTK or a set in this spot. (Or perhaps even AK AQ AJ suited 4 to a flush. ) Has she shown any propensity to play more passively or play pot control? That answer will also flavor the range.

I'm chalenging yo to think one level deeper about it and then pokerstove it.
You aren't flipping vs that range.

 

[bonflizubi]

ok, worst case you are behind 54/46. So you are correct that you don't need a lot of folds and it's profitable. But I still challenge you to think a little deeper about what they might be holding and folding. If the weight of the holdings shifts more towards sets or overpairs it would change the math - as would whether they hold any spades themselves, especially the Ace.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

45,540 games 0.002 secs 22,770,000 games/sec

Board: Ts 4d 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.866% 45.86% 00.00% 20886 1.50 { 7s4s }
Hand 1: 54.134% 54.13% 00.00% 24651 1.50 { TT+, 44-33, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, ATs, ATo }

 

[MediaBLITZ]

This is where you are wrong and why i showed teh stove numbers.

You figured that she'd laydown one pair hands here. I'd agree she doesn't ever show up with 2 pr on that board.

However, she is repping an overpair, TPTK or a set in this spot. (Or perhaps even AK AQ AJ suited 4 to a flush. ) Has she shown any propensity to play more passively or play pot control? That answer will also flavor the range.

I'm chalenging yo to think one level deeper about it and then pokerstove it.
You aren't flipping vs that range.

Yup - but honestly I've given up on this guy. He's making it into what he wants it to be. The overwhelming consensus is the opposite of his conclusion - yet he sticks to it. So what the hell - AWESOME FOLD EQUITY HERE on this coin flip. Sorry, I'm drunk.

 

[Lofwyr]

ok, worst case you are behind 54/46. So you are correct that you don't need a lot of folds and it's profitable. But I still challenge you to think a little deeper about what they might be holding and folding. If the weight of the holdings shifts more towards sets or overpairs it would change the math - as would whether they hold any spades themselves, especially the Ace.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

45,540 games 0.002 secs 22,770,000 games/sec

Board: Ts 4d 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.866% 45.86% 00.00% 20886 1.50 { 7s4s }
Hand 1: 54.134% 54.13% 00.00% 24651 1.50 { TT+, 44-33, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, ATs, ATo }

I had actually just run the exact same poker stove However, I am having trouble coming up with hands that will c/r that are outside that range...which would mean OP has closer to zero fold equity than anything else.

Still...such close odds and $$ already in the pot it's probably time to ship anyway.

 

[Pascal-lf]

ok, worst case you are behind 54/46. So you are correct that you don't need a lot of folds and it's profitable. But I still challenge you to think a little deeper about what they might be holding and folding. If the weight of the holdings shifts more towards sets or overpairs it would change the math - as would whether they hold any spades themselves, especially the Ace.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

45,540 games 0.002 secs 22,770,000 games/sec

Board: Ts 4d 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.866% 45.86% 00.00% 20886 1.50 { 7s4s }
Hand 1: 54.134% 54.13% 00.00% 24651 1.50 { TT+, 44-33, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, ATs, ATo }

I think this thread brings up a lot of really interesting points, despite the derails.

I can condence my thoughts pretty concisely, so here goes. I'm going to divide them into two categories:

If villain is a good player

By this I don't mean Phil Ivey or durrrr, or that guy you once saw win 2BI in 5 hands with aces both times down the cash table. I think the important characteristic is something who is able to hand read, and who then has the confidence to follow those reads. It's pretty easy to spot these ones - they'll be the people at your table, maybe just a couple, who aren't drooling on themselves or don't say crap like "this is my favourite hand so I call" or "might as well see a flop".

In terms of what you rep, your range is pretty tiny...Several things count against you for repping a strong hand. First, you flatted from the button against a CO open; even a tight player will 3bet QQ, KK and AA, so it's highly unlikely that have any over pairs in your range. Obviously you don't have them 0% of the time, but they aren't going to appear often. Additionally, you probably 3bet AKs and you 3bet AQs a non-0% amount of the time, plus you probably don't donk because you are so strong - you are far more likely to check raise to encourage them to put money into the pot rather than trying to make them fold from the words "the action is on you sir".

Secondly, the T is a spade. This means that if they do have something like a higher flush draw, say A7ss, they'll be less likely to fold as you are less likely to have a flush draw + a pair and more likely to have a bare flush draw which they therefore dominate.

Thirdly it's a really horrible board to try and get top pair to fold on, as you have very few two pair hands in your range. It's also a horrible board to try to get one pair hands to fold, because their range contains far more Tx than 4x or 3x, which combines with my last sentence

Fourthly, you insta-ship. This looks strong; "my hand is so strong that I don't even think to think about this decision, I just want to get all my money into the middle." When you actually have a big hand, you never insta-ship - why? Because it looks so strong. Of course, it can be manipulated and used as a reverse tell, but combined with other factors in this hand it just makes your hand look more like a flush draw.

Fifthly (yes I'm still going), you likely don't play JT/QT like this, because they aren't strong enough - you're far more likely to check call flop and try and see a showdown for a reasonable price than to get your whole stack in the middle on the flop (especially without even thinking about it). Likewise, they probably doesn't play JT/QT like this, because they've got showdown value. Or 99/88, unless their turning their hand into a bluff on the flop of a 3way pot which is hugely unlikely.

If I had the mental capacity to weigh up all these factors in a live tournament, I'd probably call with all overpairs, AT and maybe KT, along with all my flush draws with two overs and probably A5+ flush draws where I have two overs to the 4.


If villain is a bad player

See beginning of last section for definition of a bad player if you have skipped to here because everyone you play against is bad (i.e. you are a live player )

Bad players call too much, don't raise enough and don't fold enough. Why are you trying to get a bad player to fold anything after they've raised multiway?

 

[baudib1]

Pascal I agree with your analysis as I said above --- OP is representing a draw and only a draw. Villain apparently is a good hand-reader and puts hero on a draw or JJ.

That said, I don't think we need any real FE. Unless this tournament is super soft (which is possible in live events) getting it in with a 46% chance to double with the money already in the pot is a pretty good spot.

 

[Pascal-lf]

Pascal I agree with your analysis as I said above --- OP is representing a draw and only a draw. Villain apparently is a good hand-reader and puts hero on a draw or JJ.

That said, I don't think we need any real FE. Unless this tournament is super soft (which is possible in live events) getting it in with a 46% chance to double with the money already in the pot is a pretty good spot.

Sorry for not reading your post - I tried but there were so many! So I just read the OP and dived in . Glad I got to the same conclusion as you though!

 

[bonflizubi]

Pascal I agree with your analysis as I said above --- OP is representing a draw and only a draw. Villain apparently is a good hand-reader and puts hero on a draw or JJ.

That said, I don't think we need any real FE. Unless this tournament is super soft (which is possible in live events) getting it in with a 46% chance to double with the money already in the pot is a pretty good spot.

OP probably SHOULD play a set the same way since the villain is repping such strength IMO

Also, i have played that tournament before at that room. It's pretty soft.

The only real issue here is whether it's reasonable to get folds more than say 25% of the time

 

[KoRnholio]

This thread made me think of a hand I recently played... Who needs fold equity when you are sometimes ahead?

http://www.holdemmanager.net
NL Holdem $20(BB) On Game Game#51259016139

Stoneface139 ($1,440)
mikkmalm ($1,370)
Kicker008 ($1,530)
andrewfiasco ($1,450)
validthru ($1,370)
j.r.hartley_ ($1,410)
slyx17 ($1,610)
golzlatan ($5,030)
pim_x ($1,290)

Stoneface139 posts (SB) $10
mikkmalm posts (BB) $20

Dealt to Stoneface139 7d 7h
Kicker008 calls $20
fold,
validthru calls $20
fold, fold,
golzlatan raises to $150
pim_x calls $150
Stoneface139 calls $140
fold, fold, fold,
FLOP ($510) 5d 6s 4c
Stoneface139 checks
golzlatan bets $510
pim_x folds
Stoneface139 raises to $1,290 (AI)
golzlatan calls $780
TURN ($3,090) 5d 6s 4c 8s
RIVER ($3,090) 5d 6s 4c 8s Kc
golzlatan shows Ks Ah
(Pre 45%, Flop 19.9%, Turn 2.3%)

Stoneface139 shows 7d 7h
(Pre 55%, Flop 80.1%, Turn 97.7%)

Stoneface139 wins $3,090

 

[bonflizubi]

This thread made me think of a hand I recently played... Who needs fold equity when you are sometimes ahead?

http://www.holdemmanager.net
NL Holdem $20(BB) On Game Game#51259016139

Stoneface139 ($1,440)
mikkmalm ($1,370)
Kicker008 ($1,530)
andrewfiasco ($1,450)
validthru ($1,370)
j.r.hartley_ ($1,410)
slyx17 ($1,610)
golzlatan ($5,030)
pim_x ($1,290)

Stoneface139 posts (SB) $10
mikkmalm posts (BB) $20

Dealt to Stoneface139 7d 7h
Kicker008 calls $20
fold,
validthru calls $20
fold, fold,
golzlatan raises to $150
pim_x calls $150
Stoneface139 calls $140
fold, fold, fold,
FLOP ($510) 5d 6s 4c
Stoneface139 checks
golzlatan bets $510
pim_x folds
Stoneface139 raises to $1,290 (AI)
golzlatan calls $780
TURN ($3,090) 5d 6s 4c 8s
RIVER ($3,090) 5d 6s 4c 8s Kc
golzlatan shows Ks Ah
(Pre 45%, Flop 19.9%, Turn 2.3%)

Stoneface139 shows 7d 7h
(Pre 55%, Flop 80.1%, Turn 97.7%)

Stoneface139 wins $3,090

LOL you got FOOL equity. Awfully played AK there. You are never folding regardless of holding after potting that flop

 

[c9h13no3]

Thank you Brent for ending the derail.

Let's keep this on track please.

BOOORRRRINNNGGG.

I <3 the tournament forum. Its where poker advice goes to die.

 

[BrentD22]

MIke - so wrong in so many ways.

When villain chk raises 4x on that flop he obviously is showing a strong hand. Shoving a set there if OP has it is a valuetown move as it looks like a flushdraw and he is thinking obv villain values the hand. A shove is more likely to be called here than on the turn. Shoving also gets you value where when a 3 to a flush lands on the turn your action is killed or you are dead. to pairing the board.

Clearly shoving a set by villain makes sense as well since he got someone to stack off with TPTK.

<--------------big wins btw.

I would without question be shoving a set on this board if someone put in a 22bb check raise 100% of the time vs. Every player alive. Why would you ever want to allow cards that can beat you or kill your action to roll off. I shoved like i thought I was getting called. Seeing that I'm most likely flipping vs. Her calling range which isn't 100% of her check raising calling off range. People do fold in this spot probably far too regular. Seeing that I do get probably 30% of her check raising range to fold how is this play bad?

I don't ask in a way of disagreement more in a way of "please explain". Lately I've been experimenting with ubber aggressive style in middle stages of live tournaments. Btw my read was she had a 1 pair hand.

 

[BrentD22]

Read pascals very thoughtful post just now. Some good points.

 

[bonflizubi]

I would without question be shoving a set on this board if someone put in a 22bb check raise 100% of the time vs. Every player alive. Why would you ever want to allow cards that can beat you or kill your action to roll off. I shoved like i thought I was getting called. Seeing that I'm most likely flipping vs. Her calling range which isn't 100% of her check raising calling off range. People do fold in this spot probably far too regular. Seeing that I do get probably 30% of her check raising range to fold how is this play bad?

I don't ask in a way of disagreement more in a way of "please explain". Lately I've been experimenting with ubber aggressive style in middle stages of live tournaments. Btw my read was she had a 1 pair hand.

I was in this post responding to someone else, but I can explain anyway.

My point was simply that to assume only 1 pair hands is absurd. Sets fit this spot perfectly a well, and when you add them in, it isn't a flip.

If 100% it's 1 pair hands then yeah it's an easy shove with a pr + FD since there sil be some folds for sure, but I bet you get next to zero folds with the size of the C/R.

And if you are getting zero folds then it's a much more marginal spot. I guess I don't know how you could be think a fold is that likely given that the C/R means TPTK or sets or the NFD and not much else?