Call or Fold?

[darkassassin89]

Lol the force is strong with this one. Hmm i think maybe you should read the many posts CC has to offer and get a grasp of why we are saying what we are saying. We do not do it just to act like we have our own ( we think we are the best) oppinion, but rather many of us have studied other pros, some are pros, and some are even being trained by PROS. So again, no one is ever going to be 100% right, but rather, as a hole, a group, we all tend to agree on some of the more.... how do you say... obvious plays. Again, we were not their with you, you did give good detail, but still we can not say what we would have done in your shoes. Every hand is different, and if you felt this wasthe best way to get an advantage on a so called ( Donk ) wildcard, then by all means you got unlucky. But overall we try to analyze play in the long run. Not just in the moment. Thats were most of our answers and advice derives from.

Take it or leave it. And again, i felt you were pot commited ( i thought you bet 19.5k was it 10 instead? ) so i call ( if not, a fold might have been just as you actually did )

 

[baudib1]

Did you notice you have less than 20 BBs here? You are well beyond desperation time.

If you are never shoving here, then you are simply playing this spot incorrectly. I just
showed you that if your questionable statement is true, it is profitable to shove with way way worse than AJs.

It probably could be ATC, but I went on the nitty side and pushed 80%.

I mean this spot becomes an even more obvious shove because of the idiot on your left, whom you are unnaturally obsessed with yet are oblivious to how him being there changes the dynamics of the hand.

Show the math of shoving AJs with 16-17 BBs from CO vs. shoving 22 UTG with 10 BBs and explain why one is a shove while the other one isn't.

 

[darkassassin89]

Did you notice you have less than 20 BBs here? You are well beyond desperation time.

If you are never shoving here, then you are simply playing this spot incorrectly. I just
showed you that if your questionable statement is true, it is profitable to shove with way way worse than AJs.

It probably could be ATC, but I went on the nitty side and pushed 80%.

I mean this spot becomes an even more obvious shove because of the idiot on your left, whom you are unnaturally obsessed with yet are oblivious to how him being there changes the dynamics of the hand.

Show the math of shoving AJs with 16-17 BBs from CO vs. shoving 22 UTG with 10 BBs and explain why one is a shove while the other one isn't.

Really wishing CC had a LIKE button for posts

 

[baudib1]

BTW on November 9 bubble, John Hewitt, who was probably the third-tightest player at the table, called two all-ins with ATo and KQo vs. the two tightest players at the table.

The KQo has been much discussed and is probably the worst call I've ever seen in my life (other than "If you call, it's gonna be all over, baby" --"I call, I play the board."), for reasons that have been discussed plenty of times elsewhere. But the AT call was pretty decent to marginal. Antonio Esfandiari thought he should call.

 

[darkassassin89]

Hmmm, i missed it? lol what happened?

 

[duggs]

I think shoving pre is fine, especially with a terrible player left to act. If you were 3bet pre would you fold? if not you may aswell shove pre for more fold equity, getting flatted leaves you in a awkward spot. If you are only getting called by better then shove is fine as the times they hold a superior hand are slim, and outweighed by the pots we take down when it is folded.

As played, given villain has shown down with absolute air in multiple hands shouldn't we be calling his flop shove? if 68o J3s etc are possible surely we crush his range on that board?

 

[Poker Orifice]

'If' you chose/choose to read baudib's posts here thoroughly (trying to be open-minded in the process) no doubt you will learn stuff.

Personally I'm shoving this 100% of the time!! ainec

'If' I'd foolishly chosen to raise pre instead of shoving (vs. the guy you've described here).. I'd be way more inclined to crai here instead of b/f (given what you believe to be his tendancies). 'But'.. I hate to even go this route at all (with the 'thinking')... 'because' this is clearly a shove all day long in this spot.

I was thinking of writing out some of the math for you in this post but quite honestly after reading your responses I think I'd prolly be better off regg'ing for the next 'Hubbles' ... cuz I really don't think you're even interested. Trying to go back & have your question answered in regards to 'call or fold' really shouldn't be the issue at all. The issue is > you've gotten yourself into this shytty spot in the first place by not taking the correct action pre.. 'shove'!!!
(now I'm off.. cuz it's time for "Hubbles".. hubbles.. Hubbles.. HUBBLES.... gonna take that bytch down tonight!)
btw, I final tabled the Stud H/L this evening > 5th out of 3,547 runners!! (too bad it wasn't the 'Hubbles')

 

[baudib1]

quick and dirty math

if BTN/SB/BB only call 5% of hands (ignoring the times 2+ players wake up with a premium)

if you shove 10 times with a top 80% hand

you win 4.5K roughly 8.5 times = 38,250
you will get called roughly 1.5

our top 80% hand will win 29% of the time (for quick smell test, 43s is 27% vs. 99+/AQ+)

so out of 1.5 times we get called we win .435 times

ignoring blinds we basically double up = 21,750

We lose 1.0625 times = 53,250

38,250 + 21,750 = 60,000

On average we win +675 chips per shove

 

[Poker Orifice]

there ya go.... & I was thinking I was gonna make him work for it (you know... like 'ask') But then feeling tired & a bit mischievous, was thinkin' of a new title for thread instead 'call' or 'fold' or 'quit'. Just kidding OP.. lighten up a bit would ya.

btw, I'm catchin' up on you in post counts this month
We should hook up on the playchip HomeGame Stars tables for a series of HU Sng's (my treat). You can play a max. of 10games per day (playchip). Best of 7 in nlhe, & a best of 3 in PLO. What say you?

 

[baudib1]

yeah i'm game, hit me up tomorrow

 

[RamdeeBen]

Let me play too!!!

 

[RamdeeBen]

OP:

You need to shove this preflop, for reasons below.

After your C-BET, you have put in the vast majority of your stack and now have zero fold equity if he just smooth calls and your stuck on the turn/river.

You have built a pot with Ace high and the pot now represents your stack size and you still have two streets left to play and he is now never folding.

If your adamant in just open raising/folding then this is terrible but if your adamant to even betting the flop, then whats the point if you plan on folding when shoved on here or the turn etc..?

Either shove the flop or better still, shove preflop.

Your comment,

"Shove, why?

I don’t even think he is going to play – I look at this as a raise or fold hand in this position with my stack. Best case scenario, everyone folds and I win 4.5K, worst case I get busted by AA from one of the blinds. I'm laying 50K against 4K - folding is a great option to any action; I'm just questioning this one players action!"

If you don't even think he is going to play, then why open the pot? Why not just shove it? That makes zero sense. You say this guy has been caught bluffing numerous times and now you even think folding is an option? Why not shove and let him call of with a weaker Ace and this is like the best result in the world.


When you say "folding is a great option to an action" is just laughable when holding A,J with so few blinds left. Sure you "risk" (this is always going to be a winner long term by the way) your 50k for 4.5k, but you have to also realise your 50k is worth next to nothing now in all honestly, you can't expect to be able to play any decent poker with only 16blinds left as you just realised when you put out a C-BET, you're now representing 50% of your stack in the middle of the table.

You say you have experience and quite good, but this is such a bad error the way you played the hand in my opinion is so horrible.

You can only afford to play hands like Kings/Aces like this and expect a big stack to shove you (rightly so after smooth calling PF) when you don't c-bet 50% of your stack.

Listen to Baubid..

 

[RamdeeBen]

Thats why I'd open with less then if we don't hit we can get away, If we flop nicely we shove. I'd say we don't need to shove/fold until the next level at least.

15/16 blinds left, you seriously really think opening up and folding is good? You put in a massive amount of your chips to then fold?

I think people are far to tight then get blinded down to nothing, get insta called by a big stack when they finally pick a up a decent hand, then shove their A,10+ get snapped of by 5,8os and whine when sucked out on.

If you ever plan on doing anything this hand, opening 2/3 blinds to then fold leaving yourself 13blinds left is just awful play.



Look at it this way, if we switch postions vs this player and he acts first before us and he opens up to say the same amount, 7.5k and we are holding the EXACT same hand, same stack same everything are you telling me with 16blinds here you just fold or "flat" call? If so...then this is terribly bad.

I'd hope you would think "I'm shoving him now" and get your chips in the middle PF. If this active, bluffing guy happens to have you beat (highly unlikely) then you have just been unlucky but vs this type of player, this is like the best move ever in my eyes.

 

[Pascal-lf]

interesting chat.

i think in live poker and/or on a passive table it's an easy shove. online and/or with regs left to act it's a pretty easy minraise/call from late position because they'll 3bet shove worse an absolute ton.

baudi makes it sound like 20bb is end of the world - i'd have to disagree. admittedly we are short but not that short. we can still raise fold, although if the blinds are going to jump to 2k/4k fairly soon i'd avoid it. below 12bb or so is when things get critical imo.

 

[RamdeeBen]

interesting chat.

i think in live poker and/or on a passive table it's an easy shove. online and/or with regs left to act it's a pretty easy minraise/call from late position because they'll 3bet shove worse an absolute ton.

baudi makes it sound like 20bb is end of the world - i'd have to disagree. admittedly we are short but not that short. we can still raise fold, although if the blinds are going to jump to 2k/4k fairly soon i'd avoid it. below 12bb or so is when things get critical imo.

I'm surprised you say that you cancontemplate open/folding here pascal

I rememebr a thread ages back even with 20<<blinds about opening/folding is a terrible idea and I'm sure you said that to me "If you open a hand and are 20blinds or lower then folding is never a option" One of the players had 6'6s, think it was the "caller"

It was in reference to a live game where Daniel (Not sure of surname) opened a pot and was smooth called by someone with a 20blind stack so his assumption was this guy was a bad player. Not sure if you recall this but I said about "flatting being ok" and was blasted down by several including you along with baubid/Pokerorfice/some others etc saying even at 20-22blinds, if the pot is opened and you plan on playing the hand, then shoving is the right play here flat calling is terrible and also opening 20blinds PF to then fold to a shove is also a huge leak..

 

[Pascal-lf]

there's a big difference between raise folding and peeling off 20bb folding is definitely an option <20bb altho not recommendeded. i'd probably stop raise folding at about 17bb tho

 

[BlueNowhere]

15/16 blinds left, you seriously really think opening up and folding is good? You put in a massive amount of your chips to then fold?

I think people are far to tight then get blinded down to nothing, get insta called by a big stack when they finally pick a up a decent hand, then shove their A,10+ get snapped of by 5,8os and whine when sucked out on.

If you ever plan on doing anything this hand, opening 2/3 blinds to then fold leaving yourself 13blinds left is just awful play.



Look at it this way, if we switch postions vs this player and he acts first before us and he opens up to say the same amount, 7.5k and we are holding the EXACT same hand, same stack same everything are you telling me with 16blinds here you just fold or "flat" call? If so...then this is terribly bad.

I'd hope you would think "I'm shoving him now" and get your chips in the middle PF. If this active, bluffing guy happens to have you beat (highly unlikely) then you have just been unlucky but vs this type of player, this is like the best move ever in my eyes.

I don't think open/folding with this stack is great in many spots but I think it's certainly a line we can take here. If the play with the same cards was the other way round I'd just get it in. The two positions would be uncomparable and obviously change everything. No doubt its the best move if he has opened but open shoving just does not seem like +ev. odds of under 1.1 for this play.

 

[ssbn743]

Ok, I understand what you’re saying a little better but still can not understand why you would recommend a shove. 10BB is still playable with a good amount of fold equity. Case in point is that I got called by shoving 22 by a hand that could beat me, however, 80% (the number you so love to use) I’m up against a big ace or maybe KQ – meaning I am slightly ahead – something that is always better than being slightly behind, like shoving with AJ pre and getting called by what is sure to be better hand.

I understand the math just as well as you and have been around this game for a number of years now. Just because it says “new member” on my profile does not mean I am a NIT or otherwise. Shoving does nothing for me except lose my whole stack – granted it may be a better option than a raise, but I still have room to fold – in this case the C-bet is what ****ed me. Additionally, I would seriously like to know how well you do shoving 20BB stacks because you’re “short stacked”? Seriously, man, c’mon – you can’t possibly justify that especially in a low limit live tournament!

This is not even to mention, that this whole conversation is the result of a question that I never asked!

 

[duggs]

Were his previous bluffs you mention reraises that were called down?
I would still call here, even ignoring how much of your stack you have put in, i think you are good enough of the time to make it a profitable call.

 

[baudib1]

Ignoring the fact that you have to go through 8 people instead of 3, AJs is a far better hand than 22.

I like how when we have 22 we can get called by KQ but that doesn't happen when we have AJ.

At this point I'd recommend downloading PokerStove or playing around with Propokertools and learning some basic hot-cold equities before spending anymore money playing poker.

http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?g=he&h1=22&h2=5%&s=classic

http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?g=he&h1=AJs&h2=5%&s=classic

http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?g=he&h1=22&h2=10%&s=classic

http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?g=he&h1=AJs&h2=10%&s=classic

http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?g=he&h1=22&h2=15%&s=classic

http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?g=he&h1=AJs&h2=15%&s=classic

 

[BlueNowhere]

Ok, I understand what you’re saying a little better but still can not understand why you would recommend a shove. 10BB is still playable with a good amount of fold equity. Case in point is that I got called by shoving 22 by a hand that could beat me, however, 80% (the number you so love to use) I’m up against a big ace or maybe KQ – meaning I am slightly ahead – something that is always better than being slightly behind, like shoving with AJ pre and getting called by what is sure to be better hand.

I understand the math just as well as you and have been around this game for a number of years now. Just because it says “new member” on my profile does not mean I am a NIT or otherwise. Shoving does nothing for me except lose my whole stack – granted it may be a better option than a raise, but I still have room to fold – in this case the C-bet is what ****ed me. Additionally, I would seriously like to know how well you do shoving 20BB stacks because you’re “short stacked”? Seriously, man, c’mon – you can’t possibly justify that especially in a low limit live tournament!

This is not even to mention, that this whole conversation is the result of a question that I never asked!

Yes 22 in a race has slightly more equity than AJ. If you've played a while you should know you have more equity with AJ though over your opponents calling ranges. If you have played for years you should know and shouldn't need telling shoving with AJ is miles better than shoving with 22. Shortstacked we may get callers with suited connecters, weak aces, KQ type hands and PP, AJ does okay against all of these, if you get 22 with multiple callers (which is not unlikely when you shove short-stacked from ep) then you can pretty much say GG to everyone and set off home.

Also I wouldn't criticise the people that say shove pre. Its not a bad move and although I've argued against it you can do alot worse with 18BB remaining (e.g. open for 3BB then cb 4BB)

 

[ssbn743]

The point is that anything can happen at any time. If I get called, it could be KQ versus AJ, but what if it’s AA or even 22 – then I’m behind and that’s a bad way to play poker – I don’t need a poker calculator to tell me that and you shouldn’t either.

Sure, maybe a loose player or a big stack calls with KQ, but maybe he doesn’t, or maybe he has AA – IT’S NOT WORTH THE RISK – I can easily find a better spot with far better +EV! Shoving pre-flop for the 4th time is not profitable, stop telling me that it is! All I was asking is if this player to my left had me beat – obviously I folded so I thought so, but I’ve been re-thinking it over for a couple days now and even if he did maybe I should have called at that point anyway.

And I’m not saying I like pushing 22 from UTG, but again, I didn’t know that was the spot I would end up in, did I.

 

[seachicken]

Ok, I understand what you’re saying a little better but still can not understand why you would recommend a shove. 10BB is still playable with a good amount of fold equity. Case in point is that I got called by shoving 22 by a hand that could beat me, however, 80% (the number you so love to use) I’m up against a big ace or maybe KQ – meaning I am slightly ahead – something that is always better than being slightly behind, like shoving with AJ pre and getting called by what is sure to be better hand.
I understand the math just as well as you and have been around this game for a number of years now. Just because it says “new member” on my profile does not mean I am a NIT or otherwise. Shoving does nothing for me except lose my whole stack – granted it may be a better option than a raise, but I still have room to fold – in this case the C-bet is what ****ed me. Additionally, I would seriously like to know how well you do shoving 20BB stacks because you’re “short stacked”? Seriously, man, c’mon – you can’t possibly justify that especially in a low limit live tournament!

This is not even to mention, that this whole conversation is the result of a question that I never asked!

I play mostly live tournaments with buy ins from $60-$500. Couple questions where is this game. Casino, home game or card room?

I see where you are coming from about not wanting to shove preflop. However, i think you are wrong about only better hands calling with a prefolp shove. I just can't believe only AK, AQ, and larger pairs would call. You will get people calling with a wide range of hands. You have a wild card on your left and he has been extremely loose. You want to play hands with this guy and you want him to call your shoves. I would even start needling him a little if he is the type of player you are saying. You want him calling you.


I think what you are missing is the size of the preflop bet. 7.5k. You have risked more than 10% of your stack and you have a manic on your left. If you had say 3 nits yeah i could see raising 7.5k with the intent of folding to a large raise but that is not your situation. I think you said somewhere that you should have folded this hand pre flop. Why. You have a calling bluffer on your left. The guy thinks he is good and you are trying to let him know you think you are good. Not a good play. Don't push the cart when the donkey is willing to pull. I know this type of player. They don't like to get bluffed and they don't like to get pushed around. You pushed him with a hand you didn't want him to push back with. Next time check the flop. Check the turn and call his river bet. depending on the other cards. Try to play more pots with this guy. He can be very profitable.

 

[BlueNowhere]

The point is that anything can happen at any time. If I get called, it could be KQ versus AJ, but what if it’s AA or even 22 – then I’m behind and that’s a bad way to play poker – I don’t need a poker calculator to tell me that and you shouldn’t either.

Sure, maybe a loose player or a big stack calls with KQ, but maybe he doesn’t, or maybe he has AA – IT’S NOT WORTH THE RISK – I can easily find a better spot with far better +EV! Shoving pre-flop for the 4th time is not profitable, stop telling me that it is! All I was asking is if this player to my left had me beat – obviously I folded so I thought so, but I’ve been re-thinking it over for a couple days now and even if he did maybe I should have called at that point anyway.

And I’m not saying I like pushing 22 from UTG, but again, I didn’t know that was the spot I would end up in, did I.

We're talking ranges here. Yes he might have AA but having AJ makes it more unlikely. AJ>>>>>>>>>>22 because we are ahead of more of his range and AJ has so much more equity over the cards that he could have. If he has 22 and you have AJ you're behind buts thats not really the point. I suggest you really do look at pokerstove to get an idea of equity over certain ranges.

 

[baudib1]

Sure, maybe a loose player or a big stack calls with KQ, but maybe he doesn’t, or maybe he has AA – IT’S NOT WORTH THE RISK – I can easily find a better spot with far better +EV! Shoving pre-flop for the 4th time is not profitable, stop telling me that it is!

Explain what spots are far better +EV. What exactly is the risk? Your tournament equity is close to nothing to begin with.

First off, I don't believe for a second you have the capability of recognizing an +EV situation.

Second, I illustrated why shoving with close to ATC, shoving with 43s or J5o is profitable, let alone AJs. This was using the absurdly tight ranges that you suggest. So either they are calling so tight that they are folding almost all the time or you are getting it in good with AJs, you can't have it both ways.

Third, you should never pass up any spots that are marginally +EV and this one isn't even close.