On the bubble question.....

[pescaofish]

I will call right away. we need to get above average to get access to better prizes. of course you may loose but PKR is suppose to be play based on information and preFlop we have the best hand.

 

[milka1605]

I would have made the call, and then on the circumstances.

 

[SnakeEyeLiarDie]

All in. The chip leader is raising so many hands. You're better off taking the blinds with his fold or heads up all-in than making potentially tough decisions on boards. The bottom line is you win the vast majority of the time.

Ask yourself- Are you in it to win? Or are you in it to cash? Don't be afraid to play big hands just because you're on the bubble. Doubling up with an average stack that late in the tourney sets you up down the line. Giving him the opportunity to see a board with a pocket pair is just too dangerous to call. It's raise or raise.

 

[nelo80]

im allin and close my eyes , preflop if against 1 player AA not fold for me.

 

[AgentXtreme]

If u fold the best hand pre flop , that means u r playing in the wrong tournament , personally I will call even against the chips leader pressure that's an easy call with a 85% preflop winning

 

[dejan85]

you have tooption risk to be better place or win,or try tofold and be short stake and go out after bublle...

 

[Sobrosa]

call with 100% of my soul!!!

 

[Evgeni Zaytsev]

I call 100%

 

[leonidasG4]

If you fold AA's preflop, you really don't understand this game much. And if the buy-in is big enough to make you play scared, then you shouldn't buy in that tournament.

 

[D V]

The concept of "long run" works well in cash games, but is not very applicable in tournaments.

The reason is that ONE loss can be enough to bust you from the tournament.

For example, "in the long run" you are expected to win 4 out of 5 times with AA versus JJ.

However, you cannot know in advance whether you lose the first clash, or the second, or the third, etc.

So, if your "luck" at the bubble was to lose with AA versus JJ, the fact that you could theoretically win the next 4 clashes with AA does not help you if you bust out.

Sure, it does not help you seeing as you are busted at that moment, yet where do you stand in this game if you are not willing to make a bet that you will win 4 out of 5 times?
It's never fun to bubble, and you could very well still reach the FT while folding AA on the bubble.. But even in tournament play I will take this shot without second thought, as even doubling up from 10BB to 20BB is a step in the right direction. And if I happen to bust out, this has happend and will happen again, I'm able to live with it in peace, knowing I made the choice that suits me, and my goal the most.

And just to show the math:
In 4 cases you double up on the bubble and end up with X% of the minimal prize. (X must be >=100)
In 1 case you bust out.

The minimal prize is Y times the buyin.

So:
1st scenario - CALL with AA:

(4 * X% * Y * buyin) - (5 * buyin) = net winnings (averaged for 5 or multiples of 5 cases)

(buyin) * (4 * X% * Y - 5) = net winnings.

2nd scenario - FOLD with AA:

(5 * Y * buyin) - (5 * buyin) = net winnings /you don't earn X% by doubling, but you don't bust 1 time out of 5 either/

(buyin) * (5 * Y - 5) = net winnings.

To compare Scenario 1 with Scenario 2, you must divide by buyin:

4 * X% * Y - 5 ><= 5 * Y - 5

4 * X% * Y ><= 5 * Y

4 * X% ><= 5

X% ><= 1.25

Here is the break-even point !

If doubling up in CHIPS guarantees you minimum 25% bigger prize than the minimal prize, you call.

If you don't win more than 25% than the minimal prize, you fold.


Statistically, the % of the minimal prize is bigger if you have a bigger stack to call with at the bubble !

If you have a very small stack, even doubling up will not guarantee any % over the minimal prize.

Hmmm.. This is all true, doubling up does not necessarily equal to a bigger prize.
But I think that there are a lot of incalculable factors missing..

Going card dead and blinding out after folding AA.
^resulting in a min. payout of 1-2 BI.

Doubling up with AA on the bubble and then losing the very next hand or so..
^Resulting in no payout or again the min. payout.

Having no one call your AA and just swooping the blinds(+antes).
^Could very well result in going absolutely card dead and getting blinded out if you are low enough, but at least gives you another round of hands.

Having multiple people call AA and winning the pot(or split the pot, etc.)
^Best case scenario I guess.

Results can range from busting out to winning a pot that changes your stack (example: half of the average stack) to a stack with a bit more flex in it (example: twice the average stack).

I know I'm pulling something older back up, but I also like a healthy discussion!

Greetz
D V.

 

[Malkav]

I think it's an easy call depending on position...

If you are to the right of big stacks they may view your play as a desperation move (if you ship All-In), and may call you with a wide range of hands you will have cracked.

As the math pans out, one guy posted a very good analysis, it is worth it if doubling up will mean you move up several spots and are paid out at a higher rate.

 

[almir nicolau]

Para vencer torneios com fields grandes acho q todas as partes precisam de atenção! inclusive a bolha,momento que jogadores bons se aproveitam e exploram o maximo,acho q devemos jogar sem medo e aproveitar os melhores spots nesse momento. easy chamada .

 

[TheImperator]

Hey guys,

I was wondering, lets say you play in a big tournament with a lot of money on the line. 90% of the players are out and its time for the "bubble" player, you hold an average stack.

You get pocket aces (AA), you raise and then you get re-raised by the chip leader for your entire stack!

Do you call it or fold it ?

It's a call. If the money bubble of the tournament is life-changing money (the only place you might contemplate a fold) then you're playing above your means.

You should be trying to increase your chances of winning the tournament on the bubble, not be folding situations where it is obvious you are getting your money in ahead.

 

[Joseph Havelka]

No way I fold Aces in that situation

 

[tbdbitl]

Unless it is a Satty bubble, there is no way that I'm folding here. You could very well end up like Cannuli from last year's ME, but that's the chance I'm going to take!

https://www.facebook.com/pokertube/videos/10154304150169286/

 

[antbison]

Haha

I go to all-in in that situation

I mean you should have a chubby when you have aa pre and can get it all in

 

[widron2s]

You have to call and if you lose it just wasn't your tournament to win.

 

[wagon596]

No way I'm folding there. I'm all in with the best hand, after that it's up to dealer to not bad beat me...

 

[Robochick]

channel your favorite poker pro and ask wwhd/wwsd

 

[MakeUcryalot]

Hey guys,

I was wondering, lets say you play in a big tournament with a lot of money on the line. 90% of the players are out and its time for the "bubble" player, you hold an average stack.

You get pocket aces (AA), you raise and then you get re-raised by the chip leader for your entire stack!

Do you call it or fold it ?

This is going to shock you but the correct answer is to fold depending on how short the short stacks are. Read tournament poker for advanced players by Sklansky, he really goes deeper into this topic. If you were in last place then yes, if not and its right on the bubble then no. Why would you ever take the chance unless there was a seperate reasoning such as you want to win this tourney in first for some reason and are willing to bust out to take that chance. Don't forget that its a gamble. Ive lost and won AA vs AA from a flush board more than once.

 

[romych007]

It's simple. Your goal is not to survive the bubble, your goal is get to the final table. You have to make a big re-raise provocative, that the opponent has used went to the all-in, or just made the call (pot filled chips), or folded his hand. A simple call from your side will allow your opponent has to see the flop with a fairly large range of hands (as the chip leader on the bubble, will steal the blinds with a raise with marginal hands)

 

[partyboy392]

This is definitely a call! I'd call even with pocket kings. Because the odds for you winning this pot are extremely high + it's pretty obvious that he is just trying to squeeze you out if the pot.

 

[Robochick]

I have been thinking about this one. I don't think I would be able to get away from that without calling. Certainly when the cards are turned up, you will at least give the stack bully some worry; but not much. When you are bullying, you also run the risk of doubling someone, and you do. Whatever they have, you have the best pre-flop odds.

 

[joe777]

The main goal in tournament should be trying winning it.Easy call.

 

[TimovieMan]

channel your favorite poker pro and ask wwhd/wwsd

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