This is a discussion on Bubble play: when is it acceptable to ignore mathematics? within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Poker section; Nash / ICM charts are a great resource to understand when you should push, call, or fold in late game tournaments. Occasionally I find myself |
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Bubble play: when is it acceptable to ignore mathematics? |
#1
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Bubble play: when is it acceptable to ignore mathematics?
Nash / ICM charts are a great resource to understand when you should push, call, or fold in late game tournaments.
Occasionally I find myself in a situation where I’m dealt a pushable hand (77+ and AJ+) in late position but a shorter stack goes all in before I can act. <for the sake of this hypothetical assume stack sizes, blinds, and positions make the call/push mathematically profitable> Typically in this case mathematics prompt a call - but I find myself occasionally folding (especially on the lower end of the range with AJo or 77) to play it safe to hit the money since loosing would leave me with less than 5BB. What situations do you ignore the mathematics that say pushing/calling will always be more profitable in the long term vs playing it safe to ensure cashing? Should I stop “playing it safe” if I want to become a profitable MMT player? Appreciate your thoughts!
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Mathematics in poker | 3 | February 16th, 2021 4:48 PM | Learning Poker |
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You haven't detailed how many blinds you have near the bubble, just a 'shorter' stack went all-in before you had the chance and if you lose, you will be left with 5BBs.
But do you have 50BBs and the villain 45bbs? Or do you have 15 BBs and the villain 10BBs for example? At this point in a tourney, this near the bubble, I would not be trusting in maths personally, but my read of the table . I would have weighed up the aggression in the field and thought how far I could ladder up (or contend). If short stacked myself I would be content to fold and get into the money. If better stacked I would weigh up the opponent and make a simple decision. If they had been playing tightly, I would fold and keep a large stack to maneuver with post bubble. If they had been playing aggressively and went in after losing in a prior hand, I might test the waters. But the play would be with table dynamics in mind, not maths for me personally.,
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#3
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MTT is about situational awareness. Whenever you play MTT, of course you wanna go deep, but you also wanna make sure you at least get something out of it or it would just be a waste of time. At the bubble, be extremely aware of opponent stacks and make calculated moves because if you want to make it into the money, so do they. Forget about the math in this situation. Read each opponent.
Make it past the bubble and THEN look to go deep. Not saying fold AA in a headsup showdown, but if you can fold into the money, definitely tighten up your range if calling and losing would either eliminate you or take a huge chunk of your stack. I've seen dudes who easily would have been in the money if they just waited a few minutes go from Top 10 to out of the tourney because they go all in with a small PP or they go crazy with a flush draw on the flop. Dumb. And funny. And it helps me so I hope they keep doing it.
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#4
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It was a hyper tournament though so everyone at the table has less then 20 BB. I was just under middle stacked at the table (at that point).
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#5
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This will be easy to understand if you learn to feel the field of players with whom you sit at the same table.Hands 77 and AJ are not profitable hands of small stacks with olline hands will be older( unfortunately.I wouldn't count on luck.but sometimes I allow myself such moves and they bring success.That's why poker is so complicated, because math doesn't always play a role, or as it is taught only at a distance.
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#6
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re: Poker & Bubble play: when is it acceptable to ignore mathematics?
Tournament 45-man turbo on Stars with 8 players left (7 places pay) UGT: 18BB - folded MP: 12BB - folded MP1: 18BB - folded HJ (Villain): 5BB - jammed CO (Hero): 10BB BTN: 20BB SB: 15BB BB: 15BB According to ICMizer Hero should overjam 77+, AT+. However 77+ only nets Hero 0,02% of the price pool, and this is assuming, that everyone play the NASH equilibrium ranges. For the players behind that mean, they are supposed to play really tight. BTN and SB are even supposed to fold AKo, but are they actually going to do that, when its not their tournament life at risk? If I tweak the ranges of the 3 players behind to have them calling with 99+, AQ+, now overjamming 77 is losing Hero 0,07% of the price pool. So in the optimal scenario jamming 77 is barely profitable, and in a more realistic scenario, where the players behind call slightly to wide, its losing Hero money. So if this was the actual bubble and not just "near the bubble" like 10-20% of the players still needing to bust, folding 77 seem completely fine to me with the assumptions, I made.
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#7
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That makes sense. And is exactly what I experienced (which is ultimately why I decided to fold). There were only 5-6 people left (all with less then 5 BB) before bubble burst. So not exactly the bubble but close enough to matter. I was in a horrible spot once the bubble busted though (didn’t get another playable hand the rest of the game lol) so I was questioning my decision since it “technically” was incorrect if my opponents where playing optimal GTO theory. But it was borderline.
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#8
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I also would have folded. At the stakes I play, avoiding borderline spots seems to be paying off.
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Taking time to enjoy the little things. |
#9
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I do not care about bubble, when I know that I am better then field. So, I can get many value in case my 2up in upcoming phase.
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#10
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In that case 77 was probably a push, but it would also be the worst pair, that was a push. And we are not always going to get it 100% right each time, so this is certainly not a decision, I would worry about. If you folded TT or called 44, then we can begin to talk about a leak, that must be fixed. Its also ok to take off marginal spots, if you think, you have a large skill edge on some opponents. If for instance the players to your left seem to fold way to much to an open push, then that can be a more profitable situation to go for rather than calling off half your stack and potentially losing your fold equity.
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#11
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(But I’ve been in nearly identical positions with 77 and have folded before). I probably would have called if it was AJs. I 100% would have called AQ+ or TT+. I “may” have called with KQs
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#12
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re: Poker & Bubble play: when is it acceptable to ignore mathematics?
Thank you for posting What a great share once again with your post. Demonstrating how you use math in specific scenarios by adjusting it according to villain ranges not GTO ranges clarifies this issue perfectly. Thus we do not ignore the math and make the gut call or fold but continue to refine the math situationally and take actions rooted in that math. Thank you for your willingness to help us all grow.
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#13
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I usually use this type of fold. I don't know if I'm making the right move, but falling into the bubble, I think it's very bad. I end up stressing about the game so I prefer to guarantee a little money anyway. now if you are a person who has a lot of tables in the session, I think the call can be an advantage. only I wouldn't.
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#14
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you have to take risks, later on you have to play it with a worse hand.
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#15
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The math already accounts for the risk of busting when there's a huge penalty for doing so.
If you're second chip leader and the chip leader shoves against you on the bubble, for example, ICM software will give you a very tight calling range. The reason for this tightness is that the software knows you need a huge edge to take this gamble for your whole stack instead of folding and almost definitely laddering. But there's some probability of winning so that it increases your equity to gamble instead of folding. If you turn down these spots, then you're losing money in the long run.
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#16
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With that said the common understanding we all have probably heard before is the more risk = the more reward. Kinda true - when we risk more often - we will bust more often - but that one/two times we hit, and win - we make final table and once on the final table - we can aim for top 3. That top 3 pays for all the times we missed, x10 - usually. Unfotrunately - we will bust considerably more often risking it. So we will not min-cash as often, there will be a lot of bust outs, and the occasional final table (hopefully more often than occasionally) not as many min-cashes - which doesn't really help the bottom line anyway. Min-cash essentially pays for the two bullets the following day. With that said - there is strong merit in playing tight with such a small stack, and hoping you catch a good hand that can result in a double up before you blind out. You'll have a better chance at making the min-cash - but less of a chance making FT - unless you go on a run.
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#17
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#18
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re: Poker & Bubble play: when is it acceptable to ignore mathematics?
Usually at the last table, I ignore the math and act intuitively. Basically, I rely on the idea that opponents would play each other without me if I have a good stack. I wait when there are few of them left. But I don’t let the blinds eat me either. Sometimes I steal the blinds with big raises. I get into the game only with a very good card and I don't risk it. On the contrary, with a small stack, you need to go all-in more.
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#19
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,,
very interesting topic, so I'm not an experienced player and I'm not a mathematical player. I like to play with a strong hand, was I successful, honestly, yes and no. Poker game comes to me relaxation and not that it tires me.
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#20
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You have to decide whether the final table is the goal or whether to get into the money?
To be a successful mtt player it is essential to win, but at least finish in the top three sometimes in tournaments.
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#21
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Always go for first place. Don’t play scared.
So yes you should ignore maths to go for first place sometimes.
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#22
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ITS ACCEPTABLE TO PLAY YOUR BEST
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GTO ALL THE TIME 1st or Bust AKA "The Chip Leader" I don't TRY anything... I just do it.............. Wanna try me?
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#23
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At this stage, I generally play in terms of the position I have at the table and my chip ratio in proportion to the blind and to each player present at the table, beyond the cards they have in hand, in the bubble it is very vital the position, the number of chip you have and the characteristics of the players at the table
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#24
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re: Poker & Bubble play: when is it acceptable to ignore mathematics?
Wow, after reading all beautiful mathematics poker thing, and You state want to become profitable MMT player. Aren't you already? humn, question, for how long have you applying this mathematics stuff? See You at a beautiful FT. GL!
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#25
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For how long have You playing like that?
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#26
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You question got one easy, fast and simple answer. Never
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Sapere aude |
#27
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Great thread, I really enjoyed many of the detailed responses, I like to think math runs my game, but I don’t follow icm properly at certain stages/stacks.
So I’m not adding anything to this, tho I will be re reading some of these great answers again
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Like parasites we slowly suck the life out of our host, devouring for profit we’ve destroyed what’s worth the most…Nausea 1990 |
#28
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Position and the stack size of players yet to act behind you also matter. If you are on BB and you know it will be HU if you call, then you can call with AJ if you feel like villain will push with less.
But if there are say 4 more guys behind you yet to act and they cover you, AJ is foldable as is 77. I've called off on the bubble for 10 big blinds from BB with hands like A3 suited and KT suited before against guys who I know try to bully me with their big stacks. (But these are situations where I know I won't be able to just fold into the money.) Haven't been wrong yet. I've lost some of those matchups, but I was ahead every time. Other times I've folded TT and JJ in certain situations against certain players. The one time that still pisses me off to this day is when I had AA on BB right on the bubble and the big stack shoves from BTN with J7. If I won I woulda vaulted to first place. Instead I lost and became bubble boy. But that's a call every time.
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Mathematics in poker | 3 | February 16th, 2021 4:48 PM | Learning Poker |