To triple up or not to triple up. That is the question.

[Four Dogs]

This is the third hand of a tournament at FTP. There are 497 participants.I count 18 possible outs for about a 2:1 chance of trippling up (maybe). Anyway, I call and I have a good chance either 1) going deep or 2) buying back 4 hours of my life. What do you do?full tilt poker Game #3104617647: $5 + $0.50 Tournament (23192881), Table 18 - 15/30 - No Limit Hold'em - 18:02:48 ET - 2007/07/30Seat 1: SKGarr (1,485)Seat 2: Four Dogs (1,470)Seat 3: Safetydude45 (1,470)Seat 4: Piranha Dan (1,500)Seat 5: FNPx (1,575)Seat 6: flushacehigh10 (1,500)Seat 7: Mike_oxelong (1,500)Seat 8: kendog78 (1,500)Seat 9: bobcat1006 (1,500)Safetydude45 posts the small blind of 15Piranha Dan posts the big blind of 30The button is in seat #2*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to Four Dogs [Qd Kd]FNPx foldsflushacehigh10 raises to 120Mike_oxelong foldskendog78 calls 120bobcat1006 foldsSKGarr foldsFour Dogs has 15 seconds left to actFour Dogs calls 120Safetydude45 foldsPiranha Dan calls 90*** FLOP *** [Td 4d 9s]Piranha Dan bets 420flushacehigh10 raises to 1,380, and is all inkendog78 foldsFour Dogs has 15 seconds left to actFour Dogs calls 1,350, and is all inPiranha Dan calls 960, and is all in

 

[Four Dogs]

Ugh!

Here, this is a little betterFullTiltPoker Game #3104617647: $5 + $0.50 Tournament (23192881), Table 18 - 15/30 - No Limit Hold'em - 18:02:48 ET - 2007/07/30Seat 1: SKGarr (1,485)Seat 2: Four Dogs (1,470)Seat 3: Safetydude45 (1,470)Seat 4: Piranha Dan (1,500)Seat 5: FNPx (1,575)Seat 6: flushacehigh10 (1,500)Seat 7: Mike_oxelong (1,500)Seat 8: kendog78 (1,500)Seat 9: bobcat1006 (1,500)Safetydude45 posts the small blind of 15Piranha Dan posts the big blind of 30The button is in seat #2*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to Four Dogs [Qd Kd]FNPx foldsflushacehigh10 raises to 120Mike_oxelong foldskendog78 calls 120bobcat1006 foldsSKGarr foldsFour Dogs has 15 seconds left to actFour Dogs calls 120Safetydude45 foldsPiranha Dan calls 90*** FLOP *** [Td 4d 9s]Piranha Dan bets 420flushacehigh10 raises to 1,380, and is all inkendog78 foldsFour Dogs has 15 seconds left to act.

 

[aliengenius]

Not all your outs are "clean", but this is a pretty huge flop for your hand, especially given the price.

 

[Four Dogs]

Sorry about this. I seem to be experiencing some technical difficulties.

 

[Tammy]

Sorry about this. I seem to be experiencing some technical difficulties.

And here I thought you were just trying to make me cross-eyed.

 

[skoldpadda]

Five questions:

1. Do you like to gambooooooooooollll?
2. Are you feeling lucky, punk?
3. Well, are ya?
4. What's your skill level relative to the other participants (your edge)?
5. What else might you be doing with this time?

 

[ChuckTs]

This is the third hand of a tournament at FTP. There are 497 participants.I count 18 possible outs for about a 2:1 chance of trippling up (maybe). Anyway, I call and I have a good chance either 1) going deep or 2) buying back 4 hours of my life. What do you do?

Full Tilt Poker Game #3104617647: $5 + $0.50 Tournament (23192881), Table 18 - 15/30 - No Limit Hold'em - 18:02:48 ET - 2007/07/30

Seat 1: SKGarr (1,485)
Seat 2: Four Dogs (1,470)
Seat 3: Safetydude45 (1,470)
Seat 4: Piranha Dan (1,500)
Seat 5: FNPx (1,575)
Seat 6: flushacehigh10 (1,500)
Seat 7: Mike_oxelong (1,500)
Seat 8: kendog78 (1,500)
Seat 9: bobcat1006 (1,500)
Safetydude45 posts the small blind of 15
Piranha Dan posts the big blind of 30
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Four Dogs [Qd Kd]
FNPx folds
flushacehigh10 raises to 120
Mike_oxelong folds
kendog78 calls 120
bobcat1006 folds
SKGarr folds
Four Dogs has 15 seconds left to act
Four Dogs calls 120
Safetydude45 folds
Piranha Dan calls 90
*** FLOP *** [Td 4d 9s]
Piranha Dan bets 420
flushacehigh10 raises to 1,380, and is all in
kendog78 folds
Four Dogs has 15 seconds left to act
Four Dogs calls 1,350, and is all in
Piranha Dan calls 960, and is all in

There you go.

And yes, I gamble here if this is an MTT. STT and I think I fold.

There isn't as much of a need for a big stack in STTs - we can fold and still have a very healthy stack to manoeuvre with.

 

[vanquish]

Diamonds and jack both likely clean, let's roll the dice.

 

[Kenzie 96]

I like the call here for the reasons you stated

 

[tenbob]

Early stages of an MTT or a cash game, I NEVER fold this hand. The more people in the better. I can see an arguement for folding hands like this torwards the end stages/bubble stages of an MTT, but in the first few hands i call all day. And be happy about it.

 

[blankoblanco]

In an MTT I think you have to get it in here. You're getting an awesome price on your money and could easily be the favorite. Anyone who's not going to get it all-in in this spot shouldn't have played the hand in the first place

The only thing that even brings a remote question into my mind is the possibility of one of the other players having the Ad flush draw, in which case you're screwed pretty hard. I still push it in though

 

[dj11]

I don't like it, odds not withstanding.
Forget the gut shot. You're diamonds look good, but what would those guys be betting on?
AJd kills, and would account for the betting so far. KK, QQ, also possible, AA with the diamond also possible.

I don't like it, it is too early.

 

[JAMILE1]

The only thing that even brings a remote question into my mind is the possibility of one of the other players having the Ad flush draw, in which case you're screwed pretty hard. I still push it in though

IAJd kills, and would account for the betting so far. KK, QQ, also possible, AA with the diamond also possible.

I"ll take the gamble it being early, to me its chip up or ship out.

But I'm thinking along the same lines as them that the A hi flush draw is pushing, though I'll chance it here.

 

[bob_tiger]

i would call and hope to win the pot and go deep. so what happened?

 

[robwhufc]

I'd call, but I cant remember the last time I tripled (one p Four Dogs!) up or even doubled up at the beginning of an MTT.

 

[Freakakanus]

I think you would actually be better off catching the straight instead of the flush only because I bet one of those two is on the Nut flush draw ....... the other guy most likely has hit a set of Tens........


Oh, I voted call btw......

 

[Four Dogs]

I'm very impressed with some of your instincts, Dj, Jamile and Freak all came close. I wonder if anything can be learned from this? It may be that were alot further behind in these situations than many or us care to believe. Here it is, I called of course and watched in horror as All-inner number one showed the nut flush draw only (his PF call was lame but his push was OK) and J♦J♥ (Yeah okay, I call with this too) and I was dead to 8 outs provided A♦8♦ didn't improve. Poker Stove says I was 23% to win which is essentially the same as 6 outs.

Full Tilt poker game #3104617647: $5 + $0.50 Tournament (23192881), Table 18 - 15/30 - No Limit Hold'em - 18:02:48 ET - 2007/07/30
Seat 1: SKGarr (1,485)
Seat 2: Four Dogs (1,470)
Seat 3: Safetydude45 (1,470)
Seat 4: Piranha Dan (1,500)
Seat 5: FNPx (1,575)
Seat 6: flushacehigh10 (1,500)
Seat 7: Mike_oxelong (1,500)
Seat 8: kendog78 (1,500)
Seat 9: bobcat1006 (1,500)
Safetydude45 posts the small blind of 15
Piranha Dan posts the big blind of 30
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Four Dogs [Qd Kd]
FNPx folds
flushacehigh10 raises to 120
Mike_oxelong folds
kendog78 calls 120
bobcat1006 folds
SKGarr folds
Four Dogs has 15 seconds left to act
Four Dogs calls 120
Safetydude45 folds
Piranha Dan calls 90
*** FLOP *** [Td 4d 9s]
Piranha Dan bets 420
flushacehigh10 raises to 1,380, and is all in
kendog78 folds
Four Dogs has 15 seconds left to act
Four Dogs calls 1,350, and is all in
Piranha Dan calls 960, and is all in
flushacehigh10 shows [Jh Jd]
Four Dogs shows [Qd Kd]
Piranha Dan shows [8d Ad]
*** TURN *** [Td 4d 9s] 8♠
*** RIVER *** [Td 4d 9s 8s] 9♥
flushacehigh10 shows two pair, Jacks and Nines
Piranha Dan shows two pair, Nines and Eights
flushacehigh10 wins the side pot (60) with two pair, Jacks and Nines
Four Dogs shows a pair of Nines
flushacehigh10 wins the main pot (4,545) with two pair, Jacks and Nines
Four Dogs stands up
Piranha Dan stands up
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 4,605 Main pot 4,545. Side pot 60. | Rake 0
Board: [Td 4d 9s 8s 9h]
Seat 1: SKGarr didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: Four Dogs (button) showed [Qd Kd] and lost with a pair of Nines
Seat 3: Safetydude45 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 4: Piranha Dan (big blind) showed [8d Ad] and lost with two pair, Nines and Eights
Seat 5: FNPx didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: flushacehigh10 showed [Jh Jd] and won (4,605) with two pair, Jacks and Nines
Seat 7: Mike_oxelong didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: kendog78 folded on the Flop
Seat 9: bobcat1006 didn't bet (folded)

Just for yucks I ran the numbers through Poker Stove again plugging in random top 10% hands for both opponents.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
6,779,724 games 0.187 secs 36,255,208 games/sec
Board: Td 4d 9s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.743% 42.94% 01.80% 2911514 121929.33 { KdQd }
Hand 1: 27.629% 25.56% 02.07% 1732892 140248.33 { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 27.629% 25.56% 02.07% 1732892 140248.33 { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }

 

[Kenzie 96]

Well we can learn that there is no way to predict our opponents holdings very early in an MTT. And since we have, as stated earlier saved 3 or 4 hours of our life, we can now ponder the implications of this discovery at our leisure.

 

[bob_tiger]

well that sucks but u had the outs to go for it and even though you didnt win i think it was the right decision if you want to go deep

 

[ChuckTs]

You're almost getting odds to call even if we're against like AA and TT for top set, and definitely do if we count Piranha Dan's remaining chips which he will no doubt get in more often than not.

A big chip stack in MTTs is such a huge advantage - I call here %99 of the time.

 

[mrsnake3695]

I would have called to for all the reasons stated previously.

You got real unlucky in that you were facing the 2 worst possible hands you could have been facing. The JJd took away 2 of your outs and the diamonds turned out not to be outs at all with one villan having the Ad8d.

At least your overcards were live.