SNG Bubble blind defense ?

[Effexor]

This fellow raises every single time in the SB if it's folded around to him.

full tilt poker Game #3819542281: $5 + $0.50 Sit & Go (29085788), Table 1 - 150/300 - No Limit Hold'em - 1:09:06 ET - 2007/10/11
Seat 1: mokey53 (1,870)
Seat 2: Effexor (1,850)
Seat 6: csrow (7,350)
Seat 9: tattoowife (2,430)
mokey53 posts the small blind of 150
Effexor posts the big blind of 300
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Effexor [8h As]
csrow folds
tattoowife folds
mokey53 raises to 900
Effexor ?

Is A8o good enough to defend with by pushing? Is a stop-n-go a better play (calling the PF raise and pushing the flop no matter what)? Or should I just fold?

 

[vanquish]

Just fold IMO. Not a good enough hand to defend, and we can steal other people's blinds to make up for the loss.

 

[ChuckTs]

I disagree; I'm shoving here.

We don't have much FE, but I've seen plenty of fish raise with trash here and fold to a push. Not only that but he's got a huge range and could call you down light too.

Defending blinds is huge in STTs, as is stealing them. We can't let this guy keep going at our blinds and have to call him (or push him) a little light at some point to show that he can't touch our blinds.

 

[Tammy]

You say he's pushing everytime? If so, then I'm pushing here. You're getting very close to push/fold mode anyway. Chances are you have this guy beat. Like Chuck says, you have to show this guy he can't have your blinds so easily.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

We should have pushed before now, even with a weaker hand if we know villain is raising every SB if folded to. As it is, our stack is now too small and we have very little reraise fold equity.

We can't stop and go because we're in position (so most of the time villain will beat us to shoving our chips in postflop). If villain was on the button and we were BB then a stop and go would definitely be viable.

With limited reraise fold equity I definitely fold here - I'd much rather be shoving 32o next hand if folded to than shoving over villain's raise here.

 

[NineLions]

Very cool; respected players with differing opinions.

It is pretty late to start defending your blinds now, it would have been better to re-steal when the blinds were small and set the tone earlier. As it is, you two are the small stacks and you're on the bubble. I wait for a hand that no one else has shown any interest in rather than one raised into me.

 

[tosborn]

I agree with Chuck. There is another part of this that hasn't been mentioned. If villain thinks that he can push us around in the BB there has to be a reason for it (read: We haven't been protecting it thus far). A push from us is representing a really big hand.

Also with an M of 4 and playing four-handed the blinds are going to start eating us up quickly and this is a pushing hand.

We can't continue to let villain steal. Folding here is very weak IMO.

 

[Emperor IX]

Going to have to go against the grain here. I'm going to fold it and see if I can use that next orbit to find something a wee bit better.

 

[Effexor]

You say he's pushing everytime?

Literally, every single hand he's raising from the SB when it folds around to him.

 

[ChuckTs]

Going to have to go against the grain here. I'm going to fold it and see if I can use that next orbit to find something a wee bit better.

I don't hate folding, but that's a very bad reason to do it. We're sitting on an m of 4, and 4-handed you're really not likely to pick up a better hand.

You will most likely get a better opportunity to steal, however, but I want to put the hammer down here and let him know to stop ****ing with our BB. If he's got a bigger hand or sucks out on us, then so be it.

 

[vanquish]

First in is much more important than hand value with our M here, imo, and open-shoving will probably yield us more chips through fold equity than the cEV of this shove.

 

[pedroman7]

I have to agree with the shove. If he is raising everytime A8 is ahead of his range. He will be getting good odds to call with atc but you dont have long before might have to push in a worse spot.

 

[Tammy]

I can see the argument for folding here. But for what? To wait for a better hand as the blinds come around again and diminish our stack further? The problem is that we've let villain think he can get away with it for far too long, and now it's put us in a predicament. Push and be done with it.

 

[phatjose]

I shove here. Maybe an 8 isn't the best kicker, but if the small blind/villain is just auto raising from the SB and putting pressure on us, then I'm pretty sure our A has his hand crushed since he is probably raising almost any two cards. And if you crush him here, I would look to do it again in the next couple orbits, and that should get him off your back.

 

[Bentheman87]

I agree with Chuck here 100%. You are in the red zone, so you are desperate. You can't get back into a higher zone with stealing blinds or some bluffs, you're going to have to double up. You'll probably have to double up more than once. This small blind is raising with very marginal hands, and ace 8 offsuit is more than good enough to shove with here. It's in the top 20% of all hands. He'll definetly call you with any two cards, but you will be a favorite to double up. Folding here is not an option. It's a short table, and you just don't have time to wait for a better hand. In fact, you may not see a hand as good as ace 8 for a while. Besides, he might even fold to an all in reraise, which would be a great result for you.

You have to be willing to gamble in the red zone and you can't be too choosy about your hands. If you can get your chips all in for a coinflip, that is a good result for a shortstack in the redzone.

 

[vanquish]

I agree with Chuck here 100%. You are in the red zone, so you are desperate. You can't get back into a higher zone with stealing blinds or some bluffs, you're going to have to double up. You'll probably have to double up more than once. This small blind is raising with very marginal hands, and ace 8 offsuit is more than good enough to shove with here. It's in the top 20% of all hands. He'll definetly call you with any two cards, but you will be a favorite to double up. Folding here is not an option. It's a short table, and you just don't have time to wait for a better hand. In fact, you may not see a hand as good as ace 8 for a while. Besides, he might even fold to an all in reraise, which would be a great result for you.

You have to be willing to gamble in the red zone and you can't be too choosy about your hands. If you can get your chips all in for a coinflip, that is a good result for a shortstack in the redzone.

I still think first in is more important than the actual hand.

People in the shove camp:
Those of us saying fold are not saying we fold because we're weak/we want to wait for better hands/we don't want to gamble. We just believe that shoving here is like saying (we'll take a ~60/40 for our tournament life right now, on the bubble, even though this +cEV may not correlate with $EV. I don't see why open-shoving and stealing a ton of chips in blinds the next hand is any worse than this shove.

 

[tosborn]

I still think first in is more important than the actual hand.

I agree with this as well Vanquish. And by shoving here we are first in.

Because of the reasons that I and others have stated I still push in this spot.

I stated earlier that I thought folding was weak. I should clarify that a little. I can see a fold here, however, it is too tight for me.

Since villain has been raising in this spot the entire session I treat his raise no different than a limp. Yes the pot is inflated and yes villain will have the pot odds to call our raise. However, because we do still have a little fold equity (first in), Villain is going to need a better hand to call us than what he needed to attempt the steal.

 

[robwhufc]

Going to have to go against the grain here. I'm going to fold it and see if I can use that next orbit to find something a wee bit better.

Better than A8 in the next 4 hands?

Easy peasy push.

 

[robwhufc]

I still think first in is more important than the actual hand.

Not when a player is raising on the SB every time. If he's raising with any 2, i'm going all in with Queen high or better.

He wouldn't have been stealing my BB repeatedly, I know that.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Tammy/Rob/anyone else who is thinking in terms of waiting for a better hand,

I (and I assume other who are saying fold) am not waiting for a better hand, I'm folding because I'm waiting for a better situation. If that's with 32o next hand and it's folded to us, that's fine, because if BB folds the majority of the time it's far better than us essentially calling an all in here (I disagree with Chuck - even most horrible players will not fold to a shove here) even though we probably have 60-65% equity against villain's range. If we have to wait two hands and shove any two on the button, that's fine too. There are better situations we can manufacture for ourselves - SNG bubble play is more about situational play than playing our cards (though obv if we have kings or something we call here. heh).

The only argument I can find for shoving here is it's worth taking the risk because of the awful situation we're in at present - that being having the smallest stack to our right and the overwhelming big stack to our left, acting after us.

Edit:

Not when a player is raising on the SB every time. If he's raising with any 2, i'm going all in with Queen high or better.

Good short-stacked cash game strategy - horrible SNG bubble strategy.

 

[Effexor]

So you are willing to give your BB to the SB every orbit? If not, what sort of hand are you willing to reraise him with?

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

As I previously said, we should have shoved over him before now while we still had reraise fold equity, either as a consequence of the blinds being smaller or our stack being larger.

Given the situation we're in, however, yes, I'm happy to 'give my BB to the SB' as long as I can keep making chips elsewhere, particularly when the chance of having to showdown is much lower than what is most likely the 90something% chance we're going to showdown if we shove in the hand in the OP.

 

[Emperor IX]

Better than A8 in the next 4 hands?

Easy peasy push.

I need to pay more attention to that part of hands when I analyze them I'm still folding, though.Vanquish said it perfectly.

 

[Tammy]

I can definitely buy into the "waiting for a better situation" take, but it's my opinion that in this case, it doesn't apply. For the simple fact that as stated, this guy is raising the small blind everytime. I just can't give him credit for a hand here. So I push, and then cry when he flips over AA. :bawling:

 

[Zorba]

First in is much more important than hand value with our M here, imo, and open-shoving will probably yield us more chips through fold equity than the cEV of this shove.

Arrrrrgh Please Please no more Abbreviations M, imo, cEV, I get some of them but not everyone knows what all the abbreviations mean.
Please take that extra 2 seconds to make threads understandable.

P.S this is not directed to you Vanquish, it is directed to all the so called People who know and are trying to pass on valuable information to those of us that want to learn, but how can you learn when you have to go searching for what the abbreviations mean.