SNG Bubble blind defense ?

tosborn

tosborn

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Arrrrrgh Please Please no more Abbreviations M, imo, cEV, I get some of them but not everyone knows what all the abbreviations mean.

Here is the definition of M:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M-ratio

It is covered extensively by Dan Harrington in his book series "Harrington on Hold'em" volumes 1, 2, & 3. These books are commonly referred to by the abbreviations HOH1, HOH2, & HOH3.

A players M is a very basic concept that if you don't understand you certainly need to study. Here is a link of books that Aliengenius has put together that will help you get started.

If you have a question of what an abbreviation means certainly you should ask, but, I'm not going to type out the definition of every basic term that I post. I don't have the time and most posters already understand them anyway.

I'm not trying to discourage anyone from reading the hand analysis section. I and many others will help you whenever there is a concept that you don't understand.
 
oluaris

oluaris

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i'd push here

I don't want to get pushed around by a small stack, i wouldn't mind so much if the big stack is doing the pushing around. If he has me beat, then he has me beat, at least I busted out firing, instead of getting getting my blinds stolen until i'm blinded to death. In al likelihood, i'm ahead of him, given that he auto-raises on the SB when folded around to.

I don't think there would be a better situation to get some more chips in the next few hands/orbits (unless i get AA, KK or something). Having the big stack immediately to my left on a four-handed table, it's very difficult to steal blinds. He could call with any two cards, just to burst the bubble.
 
V

viking999

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I still think first in is more important than the actual hand.

People in the shove camp:
Those of us saying fold are not saying we fold because we're weak/we want to wait for better hands/we don't want to gamble. We just believe that shoving here is like saying (we'll take a ~60/40 for our tournament life right now, on the bubble, even though this +cEV may not correlate with $EV. I don't see why open-shoving and stealing a ton of chips in blinds the next hand is any worse than this shove.

Counting on an open-shove next hand is risky because...

1) Two players have to fold before you to even have a chance to do this, so it may be impossible.

2) You're giving the massive chip leader 3:2 to call your all-in, and if he's smart, he'll do it with Q7o because he knows you'll move with any two.

I fail to see how this is better than taking a 60/40 for our tournament life now.

We're in an awful spot right now. Chip leaders to our left. Aggro short stack to our right. Only 6x BB and 5x if we fold this hand. To me, this means take any edge I can get. Plus, since we have the same stack as the raiser, we're getting 60% to cash and a much better chance to win the thing. If we fold here, I think we have less than a 60% chance to cash. Maybe even less than 50% because of the relative positioning and stack sizes.

Oh yeah, and I wouldn't do a stop and go. First reason is because we aren't first to act, so we can't do a stop and go. If he were on the button, I still wouldn't do it because we're giving 3:1 on the flop all-in, so I think we're getting called by anything.
 
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B

Bentheman87

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Both you and the small blind have the same amount of chips and are the short stack. Tattoo Wife is also not looking very good, at only 2400 chips. The only big stack has about 7000 but even though he is the big stack, if he calls an all in from any of the short stacks and loses, it will hurt him. And both you and the small blind don't have an M of 4. You have an M of 1.6. You have to take your M and multiply it by the number of players remaing divided by 10. So 4 * (4/10) is 1.6. Once youre M is this low, almost anything justifies a move at the pot.

So even if the small blind hadn't been stealing your big blind every time and had been fairly conservative, you still can't be giving him credit for much of a hand here. He may be raising you with hands like king 3 or queen 5 offsuit. Just go over the top of him and when he calls and turns over some average hand like 10 8, know that you're a favorite to double up to almost 4000 chips. Remember, ace 8 offsuit is in the top 20% of all hands. I would probably fold an ace 2 offsuit or an ace 3 offsuit here, but ace 8 is good enough to push.

If you fold here, you'll be at 1500 chips, and next hand you'll be in the small bind with 1350 chips. The big blind will most likely call you with any two cards, since he has such a big stack. If you fold in the small bind here, you will be on the button next hand with 1350 chips, and when you push all in, you'll have to go through two random hands instead of just one. In the earlier situation against the small blind with ace 8, you are only against one random hand.
 
Zorba

Zorba

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Thanks Emperor IX and Tosborn,
I understood most but I was starting to go nuts trying to work out some of them.
 
jaketrevvor

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I really don't think the "wait for a better situation so fold it" idea works here. With a hyper-aggr. to your left and a massive stack to your right who can't wait to break this bubble, there is absolutely no situation which will be better than this. Even though you have pretty much no folding equity is not really a big issue here as A8 is a 3 to 2 fave over the SBs random cards.

Think of it this way: since the SB raises your BB every time it folds to him you know as much about his hand as if he were in the BB and you were in the SB and he hadn't acted yet. And I realise the folding equity would be a lot greater here, but even without it don't tell me that you wouldn't push with A8o with only 6 BBs left.

It's a complete automatic push, backed up by your table position.

jt
 
J

jeffred1111

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What's the table texture like? I might fold this and shove ATC next hand if I know it will be folded around to me: if I'm at a hyper agressive table, I might never be able to get it in first without being UTG wich sucks and wich case I'll defend with A8o. If I'm at a passive table preflop and only Mr stealer is showing interest in stealing blinds, I fold and shove next hand I'm on the button.

Shove 70% and fold 30% for me.
 
OzExorcist

OzExorcist

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It's a lousy situation - my play probably depends on how the big stack to our left has acting. It's only going to cost them a bit over a grand to call if we shove next hand... maybe they can afford to fold, but I think they'd have to have some pretty trashy trash to do it.

Based on that I think I shove with A8: we're effectively in a heads up situation and SB's raise doesn't necessarily mean strength. That, and I'm not confident we're going to find a better situation with the chip leader on our left unless they've been effectively sitting the bubble out.
 
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