Pot odds vs. tournament survival - what would you do?

roundcat

roundcat

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This seems to me to come down to a question of tournament survival vs. chip accumulation, and how much risk you're willing to take.

Here's the scenario:

You're playing a two-table tournament and are almost down to one table. Your chip stack is short, but not desperately so. Let's say you have 20 times the big blind. Only four players will be paid so you're not close to the money yet.

You limp in with A9 suited from early position. (You might typically either raise or fold here, but for the purposes of this scenario let's say you limped.) The small blind completes and the big blind checks, so there are three of you in the pot.

The flop comes T,7,6 rainbow, giving you a gutshot straight draw and an overcard. The small blind, who is desperately short-stacked, shrugs her shoulders and pushes all in. The big blind folds. To call, it will cost you nearly half your remaining stack. You assume the small blind doesn't have more than a pair, which leaves you with 7 outs, so the odds of making a better hand by the river are 2.59 to 1. The pot is offering you about 3 to 1.

Do you take the slightly favorable pot odds in order to try and accumulate more chips but risk becoming extremely short, or do you fold and wait for a better spot in order to preserve the chips you already have?
 
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mischman

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Easy fold, not a chance. If he has a 10 your drawing to at best 15% ASSUMING all your outs are live, which there mist likely not.
 
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Bombjack

Bombjack

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The stack sizes don't seem to add up. If it's a limped pot, there are 3 BB in the pot. If you're getting 3:1, that's a half-pot bet so it's costing you 1.5BB. But you said you have 20x the BB. So how can that be half your remaining chips.

Or am I missing something.
 
roundcat

roundcat

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The stack sizes don't seem to add up. If it's a limped pot, there are 3 BB in the pot. If you're getting 3:1, that's a half-pot bet so it's costing you 1.5BB. But you said you have 20x the BB. So how can that be half your remaining chips.

Oh, yeah, you're totally right. OK, let's say magic fairies dropped by and splashed the pot in order for you to be getting 3 to 1. :)
 
Bombjack

Bombjack

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If you only have 3 BB left, you would call 1.5 BB with 3:1 in an instant. But you wouldn't get into this situation because you would have shoved pre-flop.
 
roundcat

roundcat

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Totally agreed, but in this situation you definitely have more than 3 BB left. I probably tried to include too much setup information -- let me restate it getting right to the point.

Simplified scenario:

You have 20 times the big blind. On the flop, an opponent with 7 BB pushes all in and everyone else folds. You know you have exactly seven outs so your odds of winning the pot are 2.59 to 1. There's enough in the pot so that your pot odds are 3 to 1. Do you call and take the risk, or preserve your chips and wait for a better spot?
 
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mischman

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Preserve for a better spot. let the 1 BB you invested go and keep 19
 
t1riel

t1riel

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I won't even limp in. I would fold that UTG unless I was really shortstacked. Since I did, I would fold. Odds of a straight are low and small blind probably has a small pair. It's not much but it beats you. Why risk half your stack, especially since you don't know what the other players are going to do. FOLD!

On the simplified scenario,I would still fold. You can't risk nearly 40% of your chip stack on the hopes your opponent doesn't ahve a pair. if you ahve a read on him, that would be different.
 
Beavis68

Beavis68

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You dont know that you have seven outs, you have to discount the A and the 8s. You could be drawing dead.

No way the pot can be laying your 3:1 for half of your stack either, that would mean the pot was 12 or 14bbs before the the SB pushed.
 
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Y

yukoner222

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i would fold that hand preflop, you have enough chips (how much are the blinds? ) to wait for a better hand, and there is always a chance a couple of big stacks will go at it. wait to be on the final table to loosen up abit after a couple of hands (for info)
 
Kenzie 96

Kenzie 96

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Fold- pot odds is only 1 of the factors to consider.
 
roundcat

roundcat

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Well, it's unanimous, then. Fold it is.

A9 is my least favorite hand, by the way.
 
vanquish

vanquish

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I think I fold that early position preflop without thinking twice.
 
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