Overpair vs shove $22 deepstack

[Inscore77]

pokerstars Game #24751888079: Tournament #139362688, $20+$2 Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2009/02/09 9:47:25 ET
Table '139362688 10' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: TRIPS25 (10985 in chips)
Seat 2: Tw759 (6912 in chips)
Seat 3: Bojan1983 (5615 in chips)
Seat 4: Hp88 (22881 in chips)
Seat 5: RMax76 (5548 in chips)
Seat 6: Giveit2me101 (5323 in chips)
Seat 7: jopi44 (8375 in chips)
Seat 8: Inscore77 (6874 in chips)
Seat 9: fouadou14 (10610 in chips)
Inscore77: posts small blind 25
fouadou14: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Inscore77 [Kc Kh]
TRIPS25: raises 150 to 200
Tw759: folds
Bojan1983: folds
Hp88: calls 200
RMax76: folds
Giveit2me101: folds
jopi44: folds
Inscore77: raises 425 to 625
fouadou14: folds
TRIPS25: calls 425
Hp88: calls 425
*** FLOP *** [Js 4h 9s]
Inscore77: bets 1350
TRIPS25: folds
Hp88: raises 20906 to 22256 and is all-in
Inscore77: ?????????????


villain has been playing a somewhat laggy game, but the only other time I saw him do this he was ahead. Can I expect something like AJ, KJ, JQ to be showing up here? Is this a set? Or should I be fist pump calling here?

 

[Jillychemung]

This one is tough. Opponent could just be afraid of the FD and the overbet shove is to protect his JJ/99. Don't see 44 in opponents range. All comes down to whether opponent would do this with AJ or AsKs. What do you think your image is?

 

[Inscore77]

I'm playing sort of loose up to this point, betting flops and turns and etc, but I have only gotten to showdown with the best hands, and that was only like 2 or 3 times at this point

 

[Jillychemung]

Only other thing I can think of is AA getting panicked that he may have slow played his way into a tough spot with the flat call preflop.

I would have to call this expecting to see TP or AsKs. A set would be looking to get value and I don't see 2P hands making 2 flat calls preflop.

 

[nc_royals]

AA and QQ he probably would of come back over the top Preflop. He could have JJ and afraid of the Flush Draw but I think in that instant without much more information than we know, Id have to make the call.
What did you do?

 

[dj11]

Right or wrong, I'm fist pumping here, in a keeled position!

If he hit his set it is more likely he soft plays this, and you're toast anyways.

 

[cardsDontMatter]

Eerily similar

Wow.. eerily similar...

This doesn't seem to be a weak push ... ever.

It's such a ridiculous overbet with 77+, AJ+ ranges... you can't fold ...

 

[IMNER]

I'm folding here. There is a long way to go in this tourney and you will get a better chance and better odds to gamble. I'M not getting knocked out with one pair on that board. My experience is when someone massively overbets the pot on the flop or turn, they have a monster hand and want it to appear that they are stealing. My guess is he has trip Js or 9s and is protecting his hand from the flush draw.

I personally would have made a much bigger raise giving that I would be out of position in all future betting rounds and to drive the Ace rags out also because I would be suspicious of the UTG raise and would need to define my hand against him in particular. Your villian had a calling hand not a raising hand and the flop helped him.

What did you do?

 

[baudib1]

Call. He's a laggy bigstack, you're well ahead of the range he's shoving here.

 

[Inscore77]

I'm folding here. There is a long way to go in this tourney and you will get a better chance and better odds to gamble. I'M not getting knocked out with one pair on that board. My experience is when someone massively overbets the pot on the flop or turn, they have a monster hand and want it to appear that they are stealing. My guess is he has trip Js or 9s and is protecting his hand from the flush draw.

I personally would have made a much bigger raise giving that I would be out of position in all future betting rounds and to drive the Ace rags out also because I would be suspicious of the UTG raise and would need to define my hand against him in particular. Your villian had a calling hand not a raising hand and the flop helped him.

What did you do?

I'm already betting a lot on the flop, if I bet more I might push missed hands out completely but is willing to pay to see another card, is that what we want?

 

[bob_tiger]

A lil while ago Aaron asked me to take a look at this and we discussed it over msn and I thought it would be good to post on here so everyone can see. First things first I looked at this hand and I immediately thought the raise was too small, I think 775-825 is good here, and then I asked Aaron what he thought of the other guy was he like a good lag that played in position or a bad calling station type lag, he told me he was somewhat of a passive calling station. Against TAG who are easier to put on hand ranges we don't neccesarily want to raise huge so against TAG players it wouldnt be bad but thats total different subject. Aaron did agree with me and knew his raise size was too small.

Ok next step was post flop. Leading here was good in my opinion, the initial raiser folds and MP LAG shoves, now we have a decision to make. I thought to myself what kind of hands does this kind of player shove with, and to me it looked like a draw, 8Ts TQs 78s. Aaron pointed out a good thing which we both agree on, if he had a set here, he would be raising less instead of shoving or perhaps even flatting since he was so passive. I think the shove looks exactly like a draw,I mean what does Aaron's hand look like here, exactly like a top pair type of hand or perhaps over or maybe even TT, so villain is actually making a good play here. He wants to maximize his fold equity, and just get it in and he has a nice stack even if he loses. So I came to conclusion of calling, I won't tell what Aaron did and what happened, but these are my thoughts on the hand.

 

[bob_tiger]

I'm folding here. There is a long way to go in this tourney and you will get a better chance and better odds to gamble. I'M not getting knocked out with one pair on that board. My experience is when someone massively overbets the pot on the flop or turn, they have a monster hand and want it to appear that they are stealing. My guess is he has trip Js or 9s and is protecting his hand from the flush draw.

I personally would have made a much bigger raise giving that I would be out of position in all future betting rounds and to drive the Ace rags out also because I would be suspicious of the UTG raise and would need to define my hand against him in particular. Your villian had a calling hand not a raising hand and the flop helped him.

What did you do?

You make a good point of raising it more but the reason we raise is to punish the A rags hands, we don't neccesarily want them to fold, we just want to give them bad odds and make it easier to get it in on flop or turn without having to over bet depending on the board.

 

[silverslugger33]

This is one of the toughest I've seen on here in a while. I'd probably call, but folding is not at all a poor play.

 

[cardsDontMatter]

There is another post here (that I posted) which reallly has the same post flop scenario.. and the concensus there, was call. The line taken here by KK is more in line with a fundamentally (correctly) played KK. My post was at a 6max table. I was check-raised all in.

Villain knows you have a hand. These shoves are made with AA, two pair, sets, flush draws, OESDs.. you name it.

All the books say "don't go broke on one pair.." The books also say "call with Aces or Kings..."

Call.

 

[Caysewell]

I would think he has AJ, two pair, straight or flush draws. Since he's a big stack he could even have air and try to push you out of a pot. I'd call and hope to double up.

 

[IMNER]

A lil while ago Aaron asked me to take a look at this and we discussed it over msn and I thought it would be good to post on here so everyone can see. First things first I looked at this hand and I immediately thought the raise was too small, I think 775-825 is good here, and then I asked Aaron what he thought of the other guy was he like a good lag that played in position or a bad calling station type lag, he told me he was somewhat of a passive calling station. Against TAG who are easier to put on hand ranges we don't neccesarily want to raise huge so against TAG players it wouldnt be bad but thats total different subject. Aaron did agree with me and knew his raise size was too small.

Ok next step was post flop. Leading here was good in my opinion, the initial raiser folds and MP LAG shoves, now we have a decision to make. I thought to myself what kind of hands does this kind of player shove with, and to me it looked like a draw, 8Ts TQs 78s. Aaron pointed out a good thing which we both agree on, if he had a set here, he would be raising less instead of shoving or perhaps even flatting since he was so passive. I think the shove looks exactly like a draw,I mean what does Aaron's hand look like here, exactly like a top pair type of hand or perhaps over or maybe even TT, so villain is actually making a good play here. He wants to maximize his fold equity, and just get it in and he has a nice stack even if he loses. So I came to conclusion of calling, I won't tell what Aaron did and what happened, but these are my thoughts on the hand.

Your guess that this player may have spade suited connectors and one gapers, giving the pre-flop betting is very reasonable and with his stack size I would push. If that analysis is correct with having a flush and straight draw his odds of winning the pot range from about 40%-49% depending on his two cards. He can't be confident on the hand inscore is holding because of his pre-flop raise but his continuation bet, which I agree with, has sent out a signal that he has a good pocket pair, which could be PP Js or 9s but more likely an over pair to the board.

At this stage of the tourney, villian either has a made hand or is willing to go for a nearly 50-50 gamble and still have a decent stack if the gamble fails and he still has a chance to win because inscore folds.

I'm still for folding, not because I might be folding a winning hand, which would be a small mistake, but calling with a beaten hand and getting knocked out when I didn't have to would be a bigger mistake.

 

[feitr]

Folding here would be absolutely horrific. Jx, tons of draws, etc.

 

[Inscore77]

Results time. I ended up thinking about it for a second, coming to the conclusion that a set would not do this, so it was some kind of J or a draw. I call, he shows the flush draw

 

[TheUndertaker]

Well all you could do now is hope and pray that nomore spades come on the board.I think you made the right call here i would have done the same thing you had the best hand so if you lost better luck next time.

 

[Jillychemung]

So just the FD no ST8 draw with it? If so pretty ballsy with your 3-bet preflop.

 

[Inscore77]

So just the FD no ST8 draw with it? If so pretty ballsy with your 3-bet preflop.

Ya just the fd

 

[cardsDontMatter]

LOL.. a flush draw push, was it at least with an Ace of spades?

The last spade must have hit. It's tough not to fold this, I didn't and lost my hand, too.

I think it's a donk shove, hopefully Villain didn't make it very far after this.

 

[The PoolBoy]

I agree with your summation on set not shoving....Still such an overbet you are only slight fav at best the way I figure and it is for tourney life. So, toughie fer sho.

 

[IMNER]

Brave call, hope you won the hand.

Folding is obviously one of the reasons I don't make the money too often, lol.
Calling and getting rivered with either the flush or straight is the other especially against the big stack. In my opinion they often have the big stack because they are running hot and winning their races.

I enjoyed the discussion on this and hopefully learned something

 

[tdude]

yeah i would expect aj or a 2 pair. 2 pair you have to be worried about. i would call and go all in, but you have to be ready to see a good hand from your opponent