Jacki Burkhart
long winded rambler...
Silver Level
Online it's a clear call.
Live....I have to take a read.
I'm going to ignore the preflop limp. We all agree it's horrible. Moving on...
As played, the only good thing we have going for us is that our strong hand is so under-represented. Your hand has increased value now vs. villain's range because we've underrepresented it
Flipping with dead money alone right here is enough reason to sheepishly call off right here. But when you add the fact that it is a bounty tourney, AND we have the pusher covered and our JJ is well ahead of his 11 bb shove range. It's a crying call without the bounty. It's a snap call with the bounty.
edit to add: If he is doing this with a hand like AK (most likely holding, IMO) some of his outs are probably dead from all the limpers.
Live....I have to take a read.
I'm going to ignore the preflop limp. We all agree it's horrible. Moving on...
As played, the only good thing we have going for us is that our strong hand is so under-represented. Your hand has increased value now vs. villain's range because we've underrepresented it
Flipping with dead money alone right here is enough reason to sheepishly call off right here. But when you add the fact that it is a bounty tourney, AND we have the pusher covered and our JJ is well ahead of his 11 bb shove range. It's a crying call without the bounty. It's a snap call with the bounty.
edit to add: If he is doing this with a hand like AK (most likely holding, IMO) some of his outs are probably dead from all the limpers.
Four Dogs
Legend
Silver Level
Hardly, I am very surprised that there is anyone who would say otherwise.
DaPirate, do you have any idea how wide a range an 11bb stack has when they shove? I'm probably calling with eights here.
pcgnome
Legend
Silver Level
You still have more equity if the guy has a AK or AQ. Ugh! Calling behind two limpers is the worst thing you can do w/JJ, because that will induce somebody to put on a squeeze. You have to wonder before you put money in the pot if these guys were ever limping before to hide strength or weakness. If it were me I would probably snap shove just out of anger.
P
pkr_man14
Rising Star
Bronze Level
P
ph_il
...
Silver Level
Bad, bad limp in that position with JJ. Bump it up and try and take the pot there...I personally would've probably just jammed it all in to either take it down or try and get called by much weaker hands like A10, JQ, smaller pairs, suited As, etc.
Snap call that shove.
Snap call that shove.
J
jj20002
Visionary
Silver Level
2 mistakes, first limping JJ, second not paying the shove,
the guy didnt have AA or KK thats for sure because he shoved, then he shoved either lower pair or Ax and both cases you were over
if i have to bet this guy had 77 or 66! but dont worry he would have had the set too!
T
trent32la
Legend
Bronze Level
Terrible fold. Are you folding QQ here aswell? Your opponent here is jamming a lot wider, if you know he has AK/AQ here, it's still a call because:
1. we are are a 53% favorite when flipping
2. when we call and lose, we lose 14,515 chips
3. when we call and win, we win 20,995 chips.
Not to mention we're an 80% fav on weaker pairs. I absolutely hate when people say "fold because your probably flipping" not looking at long-term Chip EV and how you can profitably "flip" in spots like this. This is also a bounty tourney, so that's just an extra incentive to GII in here a favorite. A standard 4.5x iso-raise over 2 limpers would be the best play here, as played this is a fist pump call because of reasons listed above.
1. we are are a 53% favorite when flipping
2. when we call and lose, we lose 14,515 chips
3. when we call and win, we win 20,995 chips.
Not to mention we're an 80% fav on weaker pairs. I absolutely hate when people say "fold because your probably flipping" not looking at long-term Chip EV and how you can profitably "flip" in spots like this. This is also a bounty tourney, so that's just an extra incentive to GII in here a favorite. A standard 4.5x iso-raise over 2 limpers would be the best play here, as played this is a fist pump call because of reasons listed above.
Last edited:
T
trent32la
Legend
Bronze Level
Chip lead? The side info tab shows he's ITM and 13th in chips outta 49, at this point its gear-shift time trying to build a stack for the final table.
T
trent32la
Legend
Bronze Level
This is terrible logic and results-oriented mindset, show me a 1k hand sample of you have JJ and losing 980 out of 1,000 times with JJ. You may aswell say you would rather call with 22 in the spot listed above rather than JJ. You aren't losing 98% of the time with JJ, you just only realize the big times your jacks get beat.
Jacki Burkhart
long winded rambler...
Silver Level
You cannot rule out AA or KK here just because he shoved. Those hands are absolutely in his range as well, and he SHOULD shove them. The thing is that so many other hands are also in his range.
Of course, I don't know his range but even if he's a conservative player I'd say his range for jamming 11bb over 3 limpers is something like: 88+, AK/AQ and may be much wider than that. Still, even if we put him on that conservative range that our JJ we still have 51% equity to win with a lot of dead money. And the wider the range is, the better we are doing. For instance if you simply add AJ and 77 to that range we now have 55.5% equity. The more hands you add the better our equity gets.
How are we doing against the tightest of tight ranges here? Can we imagine that any player with 11bb would fold JJ or QQ in a spot like this? I cannot. How about AK? So even if we put him on the almost impossibly tight range of JJ+ and AK we still have 35% equity and given the pot odds we only need 39% equity for this to be a break even call BEFORE including the value of the bounty. So, even if villain is the world's tightest player we are only making a slight mistake in cEV but it's probably still +$EV due to the bounty.
Jacki Burkhart
long winded rambler...
Silver Level
Actually, it's even a better call than your math implies because we don't have to call the full 14,515 since our initial limp of 1,200 is already considered part of the pot. It only costs us another 13,315 to call and win a pot of 20,995.
20,995/13,315 = 1.57:1 pot odds.
convert that to equity needed to call and we only need 38.9% equity for this to be a break even call in chips alone. When you look at the dollar value of calling (considering the bounty) it's even juicier.
teepack
Legend
Bronze Level
I agree the preflop limp was bad. I would have raised to about 6K there with an eye towards scaring away everybody else but the UTG limper to see if you could pick up another bounty. Not sure why he would have limped/folded from such an early position with such a small stack, though.