Nut Flush draw HU

[JimboJim]

Villian is TAG. This is about 25-35 hands into the HU.

pokerstars Game #9729991799: Tournament #49374396, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (100/200) - 2007/05/03 - 14:22:36 (ET)
Table '49374396 1' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: JimboJim711 (7255 in chips)
Seat 7: nieezz (6245 in chips)
JimboJim711: posts the ante 25
nieezz: posts the ante 25
JimboJim711: posts small blind 100
nieezz: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to JimboJim711 [As 3s]
JimboJim711: raises 400 to 600
nieezz: calls 400
*** FLOP *** [Js Ks 2c]
nieezz: checks
JimboJim711: bets 600
nieezz: raises 1600 to 2200
JimboJim711: ??????????

 

[Stefanicov]

I dont know the odds but id say tht calling the rerse and seeing the turn would be ok whilst rsing all in woulfd be my play whatever happened i would not fold the hand

 

[JimboJim]

I dont know the odds but id say tht calling the rerse and seeing the turn would be ok whilst rsing all in woulfd be my play whatever happened i would not fold the hand

I have about 44-47% chance of winning if he has a king.

 

[H8red]

1 in 16 chance to hit your flush by the river, plus the 3 overs with the A (hopefully, probably would've reraised pre-flop w/ what he's representing on the flop AND an A), 12 out of 45 = 27%. I would probably call the 1600 to see the turn, then fold if I didn't hit. You'll still have plenty of chips if you have to fold after, and if you hit the turn, the implied odds are a big W for the game for you.

 

[tosborn]

Go ahead and push all-in right here. With the overcard and flush draw I take this chance.

 

[H8red]

I have about 44-47% chance of winning if he has a king.

Sorry, you're right about the percent if you go from here to river. I was thinking one card, if you called then folded. Either way, it seems to me like all his chips are in the middle no matter what you do, so it's most of your chips to get two chances at it, or almost half your stack to try for the 27% chance. If you call then fold, you still have plenty left at the level you're at.

 

[JimboJim]

1 in 16 chance to hit your flush, plus the 3 overs with the A

nevermind

 

[ChuckTs]

Is he still playing TAG heads up or has he switched gears? Is he giving up pots easily?

ie how comfortable are you just grinding away at him with smaller pots?

I don't think we need to take this gamble with our stack this deep if we have a good chance of just running him down with small pot poker. If we're sitting on like 3K then I shove em in immediately, but I think we can maybe wait for a better spot depending on our opponent.

 

[tosborn]

I should have added that we have fold equity right now. Even if villain is attempting a steal and has air, if a brick hits the turn he is going to lay down a continuation bet. I like playing the semi-bluff here. We are in the money already and winning this hand here, even with a villain fold, will give us a very good opportunity to win the HU.

 

[H8red]

Is he still playing TAG heads up or has he switched gears? Is he giving up pots easily?

ie how comfortable are you just grinding away at him with smaller pots?

I don't think we need to take this gamble with our stack this deep if we have a good chance of just running him down with small pot poker. If we're sitting on like 3K then I shove em in immediately, but I think we can maybe wait for a better spot depending on our opponent.

So you think he should fold now, or do you think it's worth the money for one call, seeing as he will be getting all of his chips most likely if he hits? Even if he calls and loses, he's still got a decent stack.

 

[ChuckTs]

1000 chips is decent?

edit: nevermind, I see you mean just calling to see the turn.

I don't mind it, though if I've got enough chips to outplay my opponent rather than take a gamble (he's only paying us off with a king here, probably not with a J or air), then I prefer sticking it to him in smaller pots.

 

[JimboJim]

Is he still playing TAG heads up or has he switched gears? Is he giving up pots easily?

ie how comfortable are you just grinding away at him with smaller pots?

We both are playing pretty tight HU. I've loosened up some but he seems tighter if anything. It might just seem that way because I've loosened up. We're about 25-35 hands into the HU and the stacks haven't changed much. Pretty much raise-fold...limp-call from both sides.

 

[H8red]

1000 chips is decent?

He'll have 4400 left after the call.

 

[H8red]

1000 chips is decent?

Sorry, see how you misunderstood, called the raise, folded the turn if he doesn't hit.

 

[H8red]

We both are playing pretty tight HU. I've loosened up some but he seems tighter if anything. It might just seem that way because I've loosened up. We're about 25-35 hands into the HU and the stacks haven't changed much. Pretty much raise-fold...limp-call from both sides.

Given that info, I'd stick to my original decision, call the 1600, fold if you don't hit. You'll be able to chip it back, unless he decides to go ape-shit on you.

 

[ChuckTs]

Sorry, h8red, ^^^see my edited post.

We both are playing pretty tight HU. I've loosened up some but he seems tighter if anything. It might just seem that way because I've loosened up. We're about 25-35 hands into the HU and the stacks haven't changed much. Pretty much raise-fold...limp-call from both sides.

I dunno, like I said, I don't mind a call then reassess the turn, but this guy sounds pretty weak and those types of players are like fish in a barrel HU...

Not sure what the 'best' course of action here is...mind's a little fuzzy right now ... but my personal preference is folding and waiting.

 

[blankoblanco]

I have about 44-47% chance of winning if he has a king.

Factor in your fold equity, the times he has weaker spade draws, and what's already in the pot, and shoving is still +EV.

 

[H8red]

Maybe at this point it should come up to how badly you have to use the restroom.

 

[tosborn]

Thanks for posting the hand Jimbo. This is a great example of how difficult some decisions can be. If I wanted to I could probably argue favorably for all three actions.

 

[JimboJim]

Thanks for posting the hand Jimbo. This is a great example of how difficult some decisions can be. If I wanted to I could probably argue favorably for all three actions.

I know...there are several reasons to call and several reasons to fold. I knew what I wanted to do as soon as he raised but I was very curious to what other CCers would do.

 

[H8red]

I know...there are several reasons to call and several reasons to fold. I knew what I wanted to do as soon as he raised but I was very curious to what other CCers would do.

What did you do, and how did it turn out?

 

[ChuckTs]

Blagh, I was gonna say "the more I think about it, the more I don't like folding", but tbh I'm at a loss for what to do.

I don't like pushing because although it's probably +EV, I don't like putting my 6K in chips at 100/200 in the middle with nothing but a flush draw, nor do I like just calling because I'd hate to be pushed off by QT or air on the turn if we miss. If he knows he can fight back against our c-bets, he'll do it again and again later on. Folding just sounds weak to me now too...

 

[tenbob]

By the sounds of it your both playing like weak ass gimps. Fold, and hammer the crap out of him for the rest of the HU with aggressive play, and multiple blind steals. He playing tight, he's reraised you, hes telling you hes prepared to play for all his chips. You can easily outplay a guy like this, I hate flipping for wins with these guys

 

[JimboJim]

What did you do, and how did it turn out?

I will reveil after I hear from some more people.

 

[JimboJim]

By the sounds of it your both playing like weak ass gimps.

Posted a blog just this morning about my reasons for tight HU play with small blinds