KK preflop - call? shove? Villain has?

[twizzybop]

The fact that you're in the big blind makes no difference at all except that it gives you better odds to call. You don't lose EV shoving AK in the BB, that doesn't make sense.

Now you've made my point. Money goes from left to right, always has and always will in poker. That is why the best position is always the Button, all hands lose value as the go down further left.

For example lets use pocket 10's or even JJ's. Early Position you raise, now someone re-raises and the person on the button re-raises again even push. You do have the option of folding though however you have lost some money or even chips if you do. Late positions you are faced with the same scenario with a raise and re-raise but have the same option of folding without losing a thing. Hence the EV of a hand goes up or down based apon position.

So by calling you are now almost pot commited because you will be more than likely less then 8X the BB, also by pushing you now have 2 others who are may be willing to call.

As you also see the stack size is playing a important part as to weither to call,raise or fold.

Now lets say you do push and the other 2 fold, lets hope the all in short stacked isn't holding a pocket pair cause if you lose to this opponent even if he doesn't have that pocket pair. You now made yourself short stacked and now playing desperate where as folding you have more fire power where you wouldn't have to and more than likely be in the money.

 

[WVHillbilly]

Stack with both every time. No question. No doubt.

 

[feitr]

He said it was because he was on the bubble?

Ok missed this. But you are never really going to make money in MTTs by just trying to sneak into the money. Especially in a $4 tournament because you make what like 1 buy in profit? And very significantly is the fact that so long the pot isn't won by the short villain who shoved, hero will still finish in the money seeing as he started the hand w/ more chips. And even if you lose to the short villain, you only have to beat the silly cold calling fish to win the side pot and have the same amount of chips as if you had folded.

Then explain by all means how the AK would be the heavy favorite against never mind 2 opponents this time but 3-4?

Just step out of the way, it is a train wreck waiting to happen and again he is way over 10X the BB. If you wish to overrate AK like most people do then go ahead by all means, push it all in.

If you wish to survive and make money in this tourney, step out of the way and fold.

Obviously it isn't, but neither is AA and i don't imagine you would suggest folding AA here. AK is actually pretty solid vs 3 villain's here because you will often be up against other dominated aces or against smaller pairs where you still have 6 outs to win.

Fact is, if you fold you give up all chance of finishing in the decent money, if you call you stand a chance to triple up and be in an excellent position going into the final 2 tables, and even if you do not win the pot, you only have to beat one of the other villains to either finish in the money or have almost the same amount of chips had you folded. Folding AK here would just be retarded imo.

 

[twizzybop]

Yet how can we make any assumption, for all we know UTG could think he is pot commited and call as well. We could also assume that the calling donk station actually folds but unlikely.
By putting all variables into the situation by not assuming(hoping,wishing) UTG folds especially if perhaps he does have K,Q which now our A,K loses more value especially against any pocket pair.

 

[feitr]

Ok whatever, forgot about UTG. Yea there is a good chance UTG will call and the fish will call so we probably have a 4 way pot. But unless somebody has AA or KK, which is unlikely, we are still in pretty good shape.

This is almost never a -EV chip decision, since AK will have better equity in the pot vs the 3 player's range than the price we are getting, so long none of them have AA/KK. This is also never a -EV money decision, as we still finish in the money if the shorty doesn't win the pot, and even if the shorty does win the pot we still have more (now that it is 4 way) chips than we had if we had folded if we win the side pot. So the ONLY way this is a negative money play is if the shorty wins a 4 way pot with whatever random hand they have, and this is incredibly unlikely given that in the other situations we either 1. still finish in the money 2. win the side pot and increase our stack or 3. win the entire pot and have a monster stack as the bubble breaks.

 

[twizzybop]

Ok missed this. But you are never really going to make money in MTTs by just trying to sneak into the money. Especially in a $4 tournament because you make what like 1 buy in profit? And very significantly is the fact that so long the pot isn't won by the short villain who shoved, hero will still finish in the money seeing as he started the hand w/ more chips. And even if you lose to the short villain, you only have to beat the silly cold calling fish to win the side pot and have the same amount of chips as if you had folded.



Obviously it isn't, but neither is AA and i don't imagine you would suggest folding AA here. AK is actually pretty solid vs 3 villain's here because you will often be up against other dominated aces or against smaller pairs where you still have 6 outs to win.


Fact is, if you fold you give up all chance of finishing in the decent money, if you call you stand a chance to triple up and be in an excellent position going into the final 2 tables, and even if you do not win the pot, you only have to beat one of the other villains to either finish in the money or have almost the same amount of chips had you folded. Folding AK here would just be retarded imo.

6 outs vs actually being in the lead(holding AA's) is definately a diffrent case scenario, can't be comparing apples to oranges.

Givin up finishing in the decent money? If you give up on your hold-em prowress and hold-em play, then you shouldn't be playing if you think after this hand you can't be in the decent money. Once again you are still well over 8-10X BB and have plenty of fire power to be in the decent money, did we forget that patience is part of the game which one would now be using again.

 

[Irexes]

Big blind is 600, stack is 6228. It's not well over 10bb and not shoving here is a huge leak.

Dorkus explained it well.

 

[twizzybop]

Big blind is 600, stack is 6228. It's not well over 10bb and not shoving here is a huge leak.

Dorkus explained it well.

Explained it well by making assumptions... did we forget that saying when one makes assumptions it makes an &$% out of you and me.

Yes by the way I caught the 10X but also corrected it earlier by saying 8X-10X which is still way more than enough to be confident about making the bigger money.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

even if utg calls it doesn't really change anything that could be argued to be justification for folding. there would be a lower chance that you would accumulate oodles of chips (though this is offset a little by those oodles of chips being more oodles of chips than if UTG folds), and a higher chance that you would make it ITM (as the shorty now has to beat you and TWO bigstacks for you to bubble).

 

[Stick66]

Either way, how the hell do you figure all this stuff out while the hand timer is beeping at you? I'm slow.

 

[Steveg1976]

I have a big "wheel of fortune" wheel that helps me with tough decisions. It does take most of the timer though

 

[deadhxc]

I have a hard time getting people to call a small raise much less allin when I have AA KK AK

I see someone else shove into it I start twitching like a crackhead slamming my finger on the mouse button 100x

 

[twizzybop]

Either way, how the hell do you figure all this stuff out while the hand timer is beeping at you? I'm slow.

LOL I thought of this and more than likely would get caught up in the action without much thought process and push.

That is probably another reason why I enjoy the live game where I don't have to react so quickly and think everything through.

Yet now since UTG is in this hand as a possibility, you now have 2 players including the donkey whom can eliminate you because UTG has the same size chip stack as you and you now increase your chances of not making it to the bigger money while folding your chances have increased.

 

[tpb221]

Easy push both times. Push, shove, throw your chips in, but get them in.

 

[pkrook]

KK...

should be all in arleady whats the hold up?

 

[feitr]

Yet now since UTG is in this hand as a possibility, you now have 2 players including the donkey whom can eliminate you because UTG has the same size chip stack as you and you now increase your chances of not making it to the bigger money while folding your chances have increased.

This is just ridiculous...if you give each player 25% equity in the pot as a rough estimate (good chance you do have 25% with AK..and if the shorty also has ~25% then it doesn't matter what the 2 others have this approximation works) then:

25% of the time you are eliminated
25% of the time you are eliminated but finish in the money
25% of the time you win the side pot and increase your chip stack putting you in a good position as the bubble breaks
25% of the time you win the main pot and are in an excellent position to win the tournament and possibly even the largest stack.

vs 100% of the time you have a pretty small stack heading past the bubble and are very unlikely to gain more than 1 buy in back.

You are just ridiculously concerned with somebody having AA...there are only 3 combos of AA out there (same with KK) and quite possibly only 1 seeing as there is a decent chance one of the 3 ppl who have already acted have Ax. Combinatorially and range wise, a monster that has you crushed is very unlikely. Not pushing here is just ridiculous...but yea this has been said 3248209384 times already so if you don't get it you just aren't going to get it...

 

[twizzybop]

This is just ridiculous...if you give each player 25% equity in the pot as a rough estimate (good chance you do have 25% with AK..and if the shorty also has ~25% then it doesn't matter what the 2 others have this approximation works) then:

25% of the time you are eliminated
25% of the time you are eliminated but finish in the money
25% of the time you win the side pot and increase your chip stack putting you in a good position as the bubble breaks
25% of the time you win the main pot and are in an excellent position to win the tournament and possibly even the largest stack.

vs 100% of the time you have a pretty small stack heading past the bubble and are very unlikely to gain more than 1 buy in back.

You are just ridiculously concerned with somebody having AA...there are only 3 combos of AA out there (same with KK) and quite possibly only 1 seeing as there is a decent chance one of the 3 ppl who have already acted have Ax. Combinatorially and range wise, a monster that has you crushed is very unlikely. Not pushing here is just ridiculous...but yea this has been said 3248209384 times already so if you don't get it you just aren't going to get it...

Neither will you get it, but then again nobody expected you to. I am not worried at all about AA's or KK's or QQ's.... without doing to many more assumptions here, but for giggles lets say the other 2 fold and the short stack has pocket 22's, you will still and always be the underdog, slight as it may be but you are. Now the other realization becomes that if the other 2 opponents call, you would be more than likely facing a pocket pair.
If you are constantly thinking you are ahead with AK vs 3 opponents then you are definately nuts.

By pushing here, you are indeed gambling(hoping wishing to make the money) when in fact that you may not even make the money unless short stack has the chance to bust out(wich would make for an interesting play if indeed you do call) yet if the short stack doesn't, you mean to say your poker playing ablitiy and skills wouldn't put you into the money?

Gambling for the sake of gambling isn't and never will be a good strategy.
Trying to get even with this gold opponent isn't a good strategy either.

So you mean to say one can't make the money because of a fold here is totally rediculous compared to pushing and actually getting knocked out and not making any money.

Go buy a lottery ticket allready, from what it shows it gives you 4:1 to hit.

 

[ChuckTs]

You don't get equity, do you Twizzy?

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

but for giggles lets say the other 2 fold and the short stack has pocket 22's, you will still and always be the underdog, slight as it may be but you are.

but if this were to happen you would be 45% to win but with over 5k in dead money from the bigger stacks in the pot. it's all moot seeing as goldthingy is never folding here, but w/e.

Now the other realization becomes that if the other 2 opponents call, you would be more than likely facing a pocket pair.
If you are constantly thinking you are ahead with AK vs 3 opponents then you are definately nuts.

The thing is we don't need to 'be ahead' in the terms you appear to be thinking (like all 3 villains having AQ or something). (a) with AK in most cases we will have decent equity in the pot and (b) we don't necessarily have to win the hand anyway to make the money as both feitr and i have explained and (c) if one of the big stacks fold there will be dead money floating around.

By pushing here, you are indeed gambling(hoping wishing to make the money) when in fact that you may not even make the money unless short stack has the chance to bust out(wich would make for an interesting play if indeed you do call) yet if the short stack doesn't, you mean to say your poker playing ablitiy and skills wouldn't put you into the money?

what

Gambling for the sake of gambling isn't and never will be a good strategy.
Trying to get even with this gold opponent isn't a good strategy either.

nobody mentioned trying to get even. trying to get even has consituted 0% of the arguments for shoving thus far.

So you mean to say one can't make the money because of a fold here is totally rediculous compared to pushing and actually getting knocked out and not making any money.

Go buy a lottery ticket allready, from what it shows it gives you 4:1 to hit.

nobody mentioned not making the money because of folding either. what folding does is drastically cut our chance of running deep into the tourney because we would be operating with a 10bb stack. there is a chance we will bubble because of folding, just as there is a chance we will bubble because of shoving. i don't think these two chances are very different from each other.

You don't get equity, do you Twizzy?

^ also this

 

[slowpoke83]

Two choices:

1) Shove and hope you get lucky.
2) Fold and wait for a better position/hand.

I'd go with #2, because too many people on this hand and you don't even have the best hand. And by the looks of things there are definitely other Ax and Kx around, so even if you get lucky you'll still end up with a split pot.

 

[robwhufc]

because too many people on this hand and you don't even have the best hand. And by the looks of things there are definitely other Ax and Kx around, so even if you get lucky you'll still end up with a split pot.

Isn't AK better than Ax or Kx?

You have much better hand reading skills than me, I can only make an educated guess as to what they have.

Out of interest, have you reached the final stages of many tournaments?

 

[Ranny]

Definite shove here as explained above.

What you also have to think about is, are you going to get any better spots before you are so low you have to push with anything?

 

[chrisottawa]

I also say shove it all in. Is 18th place cash what you want or is it to build your stack and be ready for the FT? Push with the AK.

 

[Inscore77]

Neither will you get it, but then again nobody expected you to. I am not worried at all about AA's or KK's or QQ's.... without doing to many more assumptions here, but for giggles lets say the other 2 fold and the short stack has pocket 22's, you will still and always be the underdog, slight as it may be but you are. Now the other realization becomes that if the other 2 opponents call, you would be more than likely facing a pocket pair.
If you are constantly thinking you are ahead with AK vs 3 opponents then you are definately nuts.

By pushing here, you are indeed gambling(hoping wishing to make the money) when in fact that you may not even make the money unless short stack has the chance to bust out(wich would make for an interesting play if indeed you do call) yet if the short stack doesn't, you mean to say your poker playing ablitiy and skills wouldn't put you into the money?

Gambling for the sake of gambling isn't and never will be a good strategy.
Trying to get even with this gold opponent isn't a good strategy either.

So you mean to say one can't make the money because of a fold here is totally rediculous compared to pushing and actually getting knocked out and not making any money.

Go buy a lottery ticket allready, from what it shows it gives you 4:1 to hit.

Do you just make up strategy after you read what others wrote so that it contridicts it? Shove ftw, it's make or break time, we're not playing just to cash

 

[Adventurebound2]

^^^ I'd sure like to know the answer to that question.

Shove, like Inscore said, it's make or break time.