How many outs and odds to call?

bubbasbestbabe

bubbasbestbabe

Suckout Queen
I played this hand and layed it down. I didn't want to really chase too much. But I want to know, just how many outs I had? And what were my odds? What I figured was that I had 5-1 chance of hitting my straight, and it was 3-1 pot odds to call. Was this correct?

Stage #647363595 Tourney ID 60410 Holdem Single Tournament No Limit $30 - 2007-02-18 09:31:42 (ET)
Table: 11810606 (real money) Seat #9 is the dealer
Seat 1 - ACOOKERLY ($680 in chips)
Seat 2 - SHELSBEAR ($1620 in chips)
Seat 3 - MONEY776 ($1450 in chips)
Seat 4 - SMPLEAGUE ($1330 in chips)
Seat 6 - EYESBLUEN62 ($1470 in chips)
Seat 7 - KLITKAT ($4320 in chips)
Seat 8 - CHANGEUROIL ($810 in chips)
Seat 9 - BLUECATS ($1820 in chips)
ACOOKERLY - Posts small blind $15
SHELSBEAR - Posts big blind $30
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to KLITKAT [Ad 5h]
MONEY776 - Folds
SMPLEAGUE - Calls $30
EYESBLUEN62 - Raises $90 to $90
KLITKAT - Calls $90
CHANGEUROIL - Folds
BLUECATS - Folds
ACOOKERLY - Folds
SHELSBEAR - Calls $60
SMPLEAGUE - Calls $60
*** FLOP *** [2h 4d 7h]
SHELSBEAR - Checks
SMPLEAGUE - Checks
EYESBLUEN62 - Bets $210
KLITKAT - Calls $210
SHELSBEAR - Folds
SMPLEAGUE - Folds
*** TURN *** [2h 4d 7h] [6c]
EYESBLUEN62 - All-In $1170
KLITKAT - Folds
EYESBLUEN62 - returned ($1170) : not called
*** SHOW DOWN ***
EYESBLUEN62 - Does not show
EYESBLUEN62 Collects $795 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total Pot($795)
Board [2h 4d 7h 6c]
Seat 1: ACOOKERLY (small blind) Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 2: SHELSBEAR (big blind) Folded on the FLOP
Seat 3: MONEY776 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 4: SMPLEAGUE Folded on the FLOP
Seat 6: EYESBLUEN62 collected Total ($795) All-In HI:($795) [Does not show]
Seat 7: KLITKAT Folded on the TURN
Seat 8: CHANGEUROIL Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 9: BLUECATS (dealer) Folded on the POCKET CARDS
 
Irexes

Irexes

Legend
I've got pokerstove etc so could come up with some more accurate numbers but this is how I do the maths in game (battlefield odds!)

Open ended straight draw is about 16% to hit the turn and another 16% on the river so that's 32% or 2 to 1 to hit it by the river.

However your Ace might also give you three more outs making 11 in total, which is about 44% by the river....

However... there's a flush draw there so your heart outs may be dead, knocking out 3 of them. You may also be up against someone with straight draws.

On balance you've probably got about 7 or 8 clean outs here, making it 28%-32% to hit by the river. Not quite 2 to 1.

Pot is 1965 and it's 1170 to call. Which is not giving you 2 to 1 (the pot would need to be 2340 for that).


Good fold, but if you don't mind me commenting you should really be letting this go preflop.
 
Irexes

Irexes

Legend
Sorry I've got that horribly wrong. I've worked that as if you have yet to see the turn and river and there's just the river to come.

With the river to come you are hitting it about 19% of the time (1 in 5) so need 4 to 1 pot odds to call which you are nowhere near getting.

Sorry bout that.
 
1

12skin

Guest
The only way I would play the A5o preflop is when I was BB. I would have liked to see them suited then there is always a chance at a flush.

I would stick to mostly monster hands online because it is guaranteed some schmuck will get the suckout.

I do believe you cannot add the chances of getting the turn and the river cards (16%+16% does not equal 32%) and that the correct way to calculate battlefield odds would be the number of outs times 2 plus 1. That is going to get you the closest to the real number without extensive math.

You had more than 8 outs however, but if you are just looking at outs that make a straight, you would need a 3 or an 8. take the number of outs and times it by 2 (16) then add 1 - you get 17% chance of hitting your out on the turn. You can add roughly 1% more for the river for a chance of roughly 18%.

Depending on how the table was playing you might have considered you also had a chance to pair aces or fives - thats six more outs for a total of 14 outs or (14x2+1) a 29% chance of hitting an out. There may have been more outs that I missed but I think that was it.

I do agree with Irexes that u should have folded this preflop. Tighten up your game and you will start winning more hands more often.

Check out the starting hands chart here https://www.cardschat.com/poker-preflop-mistakes.php
 
Irexes

Irexes

Legend
I was (wrongly) assuming that the call was to see the turn and the river, in which case adding the % chance of hitting on the turn and river is perfectly fine.

Count your outs, multiply by 2 for the % chance of hitting on each card to come.

This is effectively giving each individual out a 2% chance of hitting, it's actually 1 in 47 which is slighlty highter for the turn and a bit higher still for the river 1 in 46.

For open ended straight draw 8 outs.

(8 x 2 turn) + (8 x 2 river) = 32% chance of hitting one of 8 outs by the river.

For a flush (9 outs)

(9 x 2) + (9 x 2) = 36%

This obviously only works if you are going to see both cards due to an all in, or are expecting to see the river for free.
 
bubbasbestbabe

bubbasbestbabe

Suckout Queen
At this stage of the game and the amount of chips I have I sometimes play a little bit looser than I would. The table also was very donkish and easy to get chips from. By the way I finished first.
 
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