$Freeroll NLHE MTT: CC Freeroll - SportsBetting (OH HOW I WILL MISS THEE)

[theANMATOR]

40/80 level so we've been playing for about 20-30 minutes.


One of our colleagues opens 3x from LJ. This colleague is known by me for opening large hands with large bets. He is a solid competitor.

3x isn't OVERLY large - quite standard for a strong range from this player. Unlike other players who might be overly aggressive with a suited ace or a medium pocket pair, This player is betting his strong range - strongly.

For simplicity I will label our colleague as ST.
ST's stack is above average at 2865 and I doulbed up early so my stack is 4045.

For simplicity I'm going to use BBs from here on.

So with this particular colleague, ST, I range him 99+ AJs+.


I make the call in the HJ with
And (unknown) fella in bb also calls with a starting stack.

Pot heading to flop is 9.5bb

flop comes we do not hve a club - obviously.

colleague bets 5.75, and I cautiously call, bb folds.
The range I have on ST has not changed, minus the fact I'm CERTAIN he doesn't have 99s.

Turn is

ST overbet jams for 27.06bb. Pot is 21bb before his jam.

I tank ranging ST. I'm certain his range NOW consists of AAs with Ace of clubs, KKs with King of clubs, or Ax of clubs. Rarely - if I have even seen him do it - is ST putting in his entire stack here without a strong, made hand.
He is NOT putting in his entire stack here with QQs, or AQ off with the Ace of clubs. He would not be putting in his entire stack here with pocket 33s, nor would he put his entire stack in here with A/K off with the Ace of clubs. As stated ST is a solid, respectable thinking player, in my opinion.


Call/Fold? If we call - it is pretty much a certainty we are behind and will lose this hand. We will have roughly 15bb left. Not a great spot, and a difficult position to put us in if we want to do more than possibly min cash.

 

[300HPGOD]

Pre flop: If you really feel villains range is 99+, AJ suited+ then you should not be calling off a 3x raise. 3x is even large to set mine against and against this range you are not doing well. So it does depend on how much you are trusting yourself there that it really is 99+, AJ suited+.

On the flop, we get what we needed as that should be the only reason why you are playing the hand. On an all club board I think we should be raising here and hoping villain has some overpair (given our range its likely) that will at least call our bet and especially if they have AA or KK with a club. Calling there lets those hands have a somewhat cheap way to really reverse implied odds the hell out of you.

On the turn I think you are almost exclusively up against KK. The reason why I say this is that Ax flushes would not do this a risk a fold and they have no reason to think you are on a set. So this usually isnt the flush here and is something else. Since we discard 22,33, K3,K2, K9 since we assigned this player a tight range its pretty much AK with ace of clubs or KK. I discount AK with ace of clubs or even king of clubs since they would not have as much to protect against on the river. They cant always be sure a set would fold anyway if they even though you had one. If your pre flop range is wrong and villain has like J10 of clubs here for a lower flush that they are a little scared of then that makes sense of a hand they could have but that is outside your pre flop range. If you really trust your pre range this is a fold to me with the thought I got out setted. Narrow range as hell I know but if we are operating on a narrow pre range to begin with then as the hand progresses it should only get narrower.

 

[perrywh]

I’m calling even if I lose!

 

[theANMATOR]

Pre flop: If you really feel villains range is 99+, AJ suited+ then you should not be calling off a 3x raise. 3x is even large to set mine against and against this range you are not doing well. So it does depend on how much you are trusting yourself there that it really is 99+, AJ suited+.

On the flop, we get what we needed as that should be the only reason why you are playing the hand. On an all club board I think we should be raising here and hoping villain has some overpair (given our range its likely) that will at least call our bet and especially if they have AA or KK with a club. Calling there lets those hands have a somewhat cheap way to really reverse implied odds the hell out of you.

On the turn I think you are almost exclusively up against KK. The reason why I say this is that Ax flushes would not do this a risk a fold and they have no reason to think you are on a set. So this usually isnt the flush here and is something else. Since we discard 22,33, K3,K2, K9 since we assigned this player a tight range its pretty much AK with ace of clubs or KK. I discount AK with ace of clubs or even king of clubs since they would not have as much to protect against on the river. They cant always be sure a set would fold anyway if they even though you had one. If your pre flop range is wrong and villain has like J10 of clubs here for a lower flush that they are a little scared of then that makes sense of a hand they could have but that is outside your pre flop range. If you really trust your pre range this is a fold to me with the thought I got out setted. Narrow range as hell I know but if we are operating on a narrow pre range to begin with then as the hand progresses it should only get narrower.

Great analysis HP. I think you pretty much nailed this hand on all streets revealed so far.
Strongly agree with your preflop suggestion. After clicking the call button I very much thought to myself - Am I just crushed here before we even see any cards. 99s are a tough one action fold pre though - Looking back I think 77s I would not hesitate to fold - 88s are my (whats my mood) hand. I think I'm probably being overly nitty here also considering to fold 99s pre, but at the time I guess I was certainly entirely set mining, in which case I don't think ST had the amount of chips (commonly suggested) for a set mine.

Also perfect analysis on the flop. I mangled this street too. However - isn't there strong considerations for playing this spot cautiously? I would greatly appreciate your feedback on playing cautious vs aggressive in this specific spot, a set on a monotone board without a suit card, which a 9 of clubs isn't worth much, but it would still be a factor in how we play.

Thanks again. I will let others chime in before revealing the follow on action.

 

[300HPGOD]

Great analysis HP. I think you pretty much nailed this hand on all streets revealed so far.
Strongly agree with your preflop suggestion. After clicking the call button I very much thought to myself - Am I just crushed here before we even see any cards. 99s are a tough one action fold pre though - Looking back I think 77s I would not hesitate to fold - 88s are my (whats my mood) hand. I think I'm probably being overly nitty here also considering to fold 99s pre, but at the time I guess I was certainly entirely set mining, in which case I don't think ST had the amount of chips (commonly suggested) for a set mine.

Also perfect analysis on the flop. I mangled this street too. However - isn't there strong considerations for playing this spot cautiously? I would greatly appreciate your feedback on playing cautious vs aggressive in this specific spot, a set on a monotone board without a suit card, which a 9 of clubs isn't worth much, but it would still be a factor in how we play.

Thanks again. I will let others chime in before revealing the follow on action.

First, I dont agree with your 77=fold but 99=call that you wrote. Again, if we believe our 99+, AJ suited+ villain range is correct then 77 has the same value as 99 there. Both would be hands to only truly set mine that both would be similarly smacked against that range. If you do feel 77 is a fold and you believe in the villain ranging then you should be folding.

As far as your question about being cautious here, the reason why I dont like is what are we going to say out loud if another club comes on the turn (probably oh sh*t). What is villain going to say if another club comes and they have a hand you are potentially targeting for it all such as QQ, KK, AA no clubs? They will say oh sh*t as well meaning its an action killing card where you lose the value of your set. Villain would never put another dime in the rest of the hand and there goes your opportunity to stack them which is the only reason why you played this hand to begin with. Of course if they have a club in their overpair then they have you know and you will have to play a guessing game on where you are at in the hand. Being this isnt 150 BBs deep on this flop I like raising with the intention of calling the jam if it comes knowing worse case scenario I still have a 25% redraw to the boat.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Calling here is fine.

Flop
Obviously you could be behind to a flush here, and with 3 low cards on the board, a lot of flush combos are in both opponents ranges. But even so I dont think, this is a "cautious" call. You have almost 40% equity against a flush, and someone dont *always* have a flush, just because the board is monotone. So this is either an enthusiastic call or even a raise. Both plays have merits.

Just calling allow you the option to sometimes get away, if the board run out with a 1-liner to a flush and no board pair. Its pretty easy to play future streets, because you know exactly, which cards are good or bad, and you have position. Raising also have advantages though, because there are so many hands, they have have, with a random club. Those hands have equity, so by raising you either get protection or value, both of which is obviously great.

Turn
There is no reason for the nut flush to play like this, since he would just be chasing away a lot of his action, and for KK its almost an overplay, since you could also have a flush. So the most likely hand, you lose to, is a low flush, that dont want to let another club roll off. And a lot of people would get confused here with a hand like AK with A of clubs, because they now also have top pair. They dont really know, how to classify their hand, and therefore they just pile it in, so they have no more decisions to make.

Or he could simply be bluffing. In general I am sceptic about statements like "this player would never bluff". Its rare, we have that good of a read on anyone especially without HUD-stats to back it up. So for me 99 is simply to high in your range to fold here. If you are behind to a flush, you have 10 outs to boat up, so you will just need to get lucky and bink a suck-out. And otherwise there is always another freeroll coming. I just dont see super nitty folds being the right way to approach freerolls in general. Its a freeroll, and even just for that reason there is always room for people to do something light or wild.

 

[theANMATOR]

I’m calling even if I lose!

Or he could simply be bluffing. In general I am sceptic about statements like "this player would never bluff". Its rare, we have that good of a read on anyone especially without HUD-stats to back it up. So for me 99 is simply to high in your range to fold here. If you are behind to a flush, you have 10 outs to boat up, so you will just need to get lucky and bink a suck-out. And otherwise there is always another freeroll coming. I just dont see super nitty folds being the right way to approach freerolls in general. Its a freeroll, and even just for that reason there is always room for people to do something light or wild.

To your point FD about "this player would never bluff" I never said that. What I did say was this player is a solid player, and I have never seen him OVERPLAY a hand. His bets are true, from my observation and playing along side him roughly 4 days a week for two years.

Thanks for everyones input. As perry said above and FD repeated - I basically said - this is a freeroll if ST has me here than so be it. It's a freeroll - we will play another one tomorrow.

I went ahead and made the call - fully expecting to be behind - and sure enough ST has KKs with the King of clubs. I think I have what - less than one percent.

And as we all know and expet - the last 9 in the deck comes on the river.

 

[wengz2002]

Lucky Luv, hitting sets quite a few times! Eliminate my 3-kinds~ :-(

 

[fundiver199]

I went ahead and made the call - fully expecting to be behind - and sure enough ST has KKs with the King of clubs. I think I have what - less than one percent.

Set over set is just a massive cooler, especially when you dont even have bottom set. Would you even consider folding second set, if no flush or straight was possible? Of course not. Also I dont think, the opponent played particularly well. Especially with Kc in his hands, there are no river cards, that are really bad for him. So the turn overbet jam is losing him a lot of value in the long run.

Not that it really matter, if our opponent played well or not. But hand reading is about putting our opponent on a range, and actually it does not make much sense, that he played KK with Kc like this. So its not like, you should feel, that "oh this should have been obvious to me". Or we can go a different way and say, that if he is doing this with KK with Kc, is he not also doing it with AK with Kc? And there are twice as many combos of that hand.

 

[theANMATOR]

Set over set is just a massive cooler, especially when you dont even have bottom set. Would you even consider folding second set, if no flush or straight was possible? Of course not. Also I dont think, the opponent played particularly well. Especially with Kc in his hands, there are no river cards, that are really bad for him. So the turn overbet jam is losing him a lot of value in the long run.

Not that it really matter, if our opponent played well or not. But hand reading is about putting our opponent on a range, and actually it does not make much sense, that he played KK with Kc like this. So its not like, you should feel, that "oh this should have been obvious to me". Or we can go a different way and say, that if he is doing this with KK with Kc, is he not also doing it with AK with Kc? And there are twice as many combos of that hand.

Great feedback FD, thanks for the follow up.

I've been seeing a lot of players lately that are 2-3 street poker players. Meaning they are making all there decisions preflop and on the flop. I'm not categorizing ST in this group of players, because to me these 2 street players are pretty weak in my opinion and I think ST is better than that. However I do agree with your assessment this was an overplay on his part.
There are only a couple of hands that could legitimately make the turn jam call.

Regarding the 2 street poker players. From my observation it seems they are just completely horrified to play turns and rivers. I can't see how this is a profitable/sustainable strategy that can hold up to players that are more well rounded. It's pretty humorous to be honest to see this player type get crushed by turns and rivers, after they have chosen to commit their fate to chance with marginal hands, or even strong but vulnerable hands on the flop.

Possibly ST was also in the same mind-set as I was, this is only a freeroll, I'm at the top of my range here and probably have the best hand. If this opponent wants to call here he can, or else I will get the near double up by taking the pot down here. He could have put me on a flush - in which case he would have won the hand on the river, and has somewhere around 20%? equity to boat up ? (i don't have equity calc available at this time) on the river.

Maybe ST will pop in to give his point of view of the hand. We talked afterward, I asked him if he was going to post this hand, he said for me to go ahead and he would see the discussion. Unfortunately life got in the way - This hand was played well over a month ago. I was not able to post it within a reasonable time frame after the event.

 

[fundiver199]

There are only a couple of hands that could legitimately make the turn jam call.

Exactly and most of those hands are made flushes, which of course top set is behind to. You might not even have 22 or 33 in your range, because the effective stack was to shallow to setmine. So 99 might be the only hand, he get action from, that he is ahead of.