AKs in BSB play; $5 rebuy sat

[ChuckTs]

Pusher is fairly aggressive (~25/15/3), and caller is new to the table.

pokerstars Game #11465717057: Tournament #57905170, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2007/08/13 - 12:45:25 (ET)
Table '57905170 20' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: lrlem (7440 in chips)
Seat 2: AceHighSoMi (1615 in chips)
Seat 3: mindli (3970 in chips)
Seat 4: PokerWill1 (5888 in chips)
Seat 5: osugordu (5910 in chips)
Seat 6: ChuckTs (12752 in chips)
Seat 7: rideordie22 (5285 in chips)
Seat 8: Vinter (6101 in chips)
Seat 9: jefrutten (3634 in chips)
lrlem: posts the ante 40
AceHighSoMi: posts the ante 40
mindli: posts the ante 40
PokerWill1: posts the ante 40
osugordu: posts the ante 40
ChuckTs: posts the ante 40
rideordie22: posts the ante 40
Vinter: posts the ante 40
jefrutten: posts the ante 40
osugordu: posts small blind 200
ChuckTs: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ChuckTs [Kc] [Ac]
rideordie22: folds
Vinter: folds
jefrutten: folds
lrlem: folds
AceHighSoMi: folds
mindli: folds
PokerWill1: raises 5448 to 5848 and is all-in
osugordu: raises 22 to 5870 and is all-in
ChuckTs: ...

This is a rebuy satellite, we're after the rebuy break, and something like 100 are left with ~40 getting paid.

Also, what if this is a standard rebuy? How much does that affect our decision?

 

[hott_estelle]

Easy fold.

No need to risk about half your stack, at these blind stages.

Yes first player is aggro, but the 2nd is unknown. It may turn out they have some hand like AJ v. 77 or something, but in this situation, that's about what you have to expect.

At best here, you're probably going to be in a race with one of the hands. At worst, you'll be dominated against KKs or AAs (doubtful, but who knows). Now if it does turn out that they're both aggro maniacs pushing with AJs or AQs, then o well, just move on to the next hand.

Chance are though, you'll be in a race for half your chips against 2 players. No need to risk that many chips, when you have 30+xBB. The fact that this tourney is a satellite also factors into this being an easy fold even more so than normal--however, even in normal MTT situations, this would still be a fold.

 

[blankoblanco]

Satellite - fold
Standard MTT - instacall with glee

Sorry for lack of reasoning at the moment.. I can expound if someone disagrees with either

 

[joeeagles]

Without getting into the MTT or satellite difference for now, I like the call here with AKs getting almost 2.5 to 1 on your money.

We have a pusher whose fairly aggressive and on the button. I don't want to say he could be doing this with ATC, but we certainly agree his range is pretty wide and the chance of you being ahead of him is extremely high.

The SB is a different case. We have no read on him but I don't really think its relevant, he called off all his chips so we need to give him credit for some kind of a hand. How good of a hand we really can't speculate, or maybe we can a bit. What is a normal range for calling a button shove? If we say that only AA or KK does this, we're fooling ourselves. While he very well could have such a hand, it much more probable he doesn't, and I'm sure we agree the range for calling a button shove is wider than that.

So if we base this decision purely on odds, I say its a call because a fair amount of times you're ahead, and if you're behind odds are great for chasing. You will be WB (vs AA or KK) only a very small amount of times. It is true that its 44% of your stack to call, but I think with odds you're getting its well worth the risk, and you still have 17 BB's to work with if you lose, and if you win it puts you in the driver seat with a 25k stack. Its one those make or break hands, with the benefit of having good odds to try it. Even if the SB has a strong hand like QQ, and we give a decent hand like AJ to the button, you're still 37% to win and you're getting almost 2.5 to 1 on your money.

I think I understand why Combu folds this in a satellite, particularly given the conditions here (~100 left, 40 qualifiers). So yes, in this scenario I can see a fold, but in an MTT I think its a pretty easy call for what I said above, its actually almost a no-brainer. The only consideration one can make to lean towards a fold is when you really think the field is so weak that you can make chips risking less later on. But how sure can anyone ever be of that?

It's well known that its almost impossible to cruise through and win an MTT w/o facing coinflips and risky situations, and you need to get lucky and win the majority of them to get ahead. The best one can do is try to get into them when odds are good for you, and when you're not forced to throw you're whole stack into it. This situation fits pretty well. It's not your entire stack, and odds are favorable. Avoiding these every time won't get the job done, IMHO.

 

[shinedown.45]

You are getting good odds to call this but do you really think its worth almost half your stack?
IMO, I think it is worth the call, if you win you take out 2 players, if you lose you'll still have enough chips to do some damage with the right cards.

 

[ChuckTs]

I think the key here is that that this is a satellite. We have no real need to accumulate chips at the moment. Blind stealing and the occasional biggish pot will get us to the finish line without too many problems, and we have no need to take what is most likely a coinflip for half our stack here (as was mentioned).

If this were a regular MTT, I think it would be closer to a call, but it would depend on what the field was. If it was still ~100 left and 40 getting paid, I don't think I'd need to take the gamble here. We have plenty of chips to make it deep - winning this pot won't up our chances significantly IMO.

If we're in the earlier stages, or if the pay spots were fewer, I think a gamble is fine to try and give yourself the biggest chip lead possible.

Results:

POKERSTARS GAME #11465717057: TOURNAMENT #57905170, $5.00+$0.50 HOLD'EM NO LIMIT - LEVEL VIII (200/400) - 2007/08/13 - 12:45:25 (ET)
Table '57905170 20' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: lrlem (7440 in chips)
Seat 2: AceHighSoMi (1615 in chips)
Seat 3: mindli (3970 in chips)
Seat 4: PokerWill1 (5888 in chips)
Seat 5: osugordu (5910 in chips)
Seat 6: ChuckTs (12752 in chips)
Seat 7: rideordie22 (5285 in chips)
Seat 8: Vinter (6101 in chips)
Seat 9: jefrutten (3634 in chips)
lrlem: posts the ante 40
AceHighSoMi: posts the ante 40
mindli: posts the ante 40
PokerWill1: posts the ante 40
osugordu: posts the ante 40
ChuckTs: posts the ante 40
rideordie22: posts the ante 40
Vinter: posts the ante 40
jefrutten: posts the ante 40
osugordu: posts small blind 200
ChuckTs: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ChuckTs [Kc Ac]
rideordie22: folds
Vinter: folds
jefrutten: folds
lrlem: folds
AceHighSoMi: folds
mindli: folds
PokerWill1: raises 5448 to 5848 and is all-in
osugordu: raises 22 to 5870 and is all-in
ChuckTs: folds
PokerWill1 said, "eeep 9 plz?"
*** FLOP *** [8c 7s 6s]
*** TURN *** [8c 7s 6s] [Qh]
*** RIVER *** [8c 7s 6s Qh] [4c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
osugordu: shows [Kd Ah] (high card Ace)
PokerWill1: shows [9h 9d] (a pair of Nines)
PokerWill1 collected 12456 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 12456 | Rake 0
Board [8c 7s 6s Qh 4c]
Seat 1: lrlem folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: AceHighSoMi folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: mindli folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: PokerWill1 (button) showed [9h 9d] and won (12456) with a pair of Nines
Seat 5: osugordu (small blind) showed [Kd Ah] and lost with high card Ace
Seat 6: ChuckTs (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: rideordie22 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Vinter folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: jefrutten folded before Flop (didn't bet)

 

[blankoblanco]

p.s. because it's a satellite, I think the average stack size matters a lot. But I'll just judge purely off the other stacks at your table.

If the stacks at Taylor's table are any indication, he's got over 2 times the average stack at this point. That means when it gets down to 50 players from 100, just retaining a stack of this size would have him above the average. With 50 players left and 40 making it. That's almost a sure thing

I think calling off in a satellite under these conditions is almost unquestionably wrong because he's in such a good position to just cruise along, picking up pots now and then against the stack sizes who are rarely going to play back against his stack

EDIT: posted this before seeing your last post. solid fold

DOUBLE EDIT: I disagree with one thing though, I'm making this call in a regular MTT no matter what stage it's in

 

[hott_estelle]

DOUBLE EDIT: I disagree with one thing though, I'm making this call in a regular MTT no matter what stage it's in

Why? Because you can't fold AK??

If there is only 1 player that made the raise, then obv, you put the chips in the middle--however, with 2 other players already in in front of you, I think this has to be a fold, in both MTTs and in satellites, because of the reads or (lack of reads) we have. One of the players is a complete unknown, you have no idea how he plays.

Anyways, in this given situation, most of the time, you'll be behind or at best in a 30% situation. Like I posted before, there's no need to put your chips in the middle when most of the time the best thing you can hope for is a coin flip type situation with 2 other players. You're not going to ever be way ahead with AK against 2 other players that have already pushed all-in with decent size stacks.

Just because you're big stacked, and you have the chips to gamble with, doesn't mean you just toss half your chips in when you know that most likely you'll be the underdog in the hand.

 

[ChuckTs]

DOUBLE EDIT: I disagree with one thing though, I'm making this call in a regular MTT no matter what stage it's in

Your reasoning being?

I'm not sure I agree with you combu - we're in a solid spot chip-wise, have no real need to accumulate chips (unless this were early in a huge-field MTT), and we're rarely a favorite here. I don't see a reason to call...

 

[Egon Towst]

p.s. because it's a satellite, I think the average stack size matters a lot. But I'll just judge purely off the other stacks at your table.

If the stacks at Taylor's table are any indication, he's got over 2 times the average stack at this point. That means when it gets down to 50 players from 100, just retaining a stack of this size would have him above the average. With 50 players left and 40 making it. That's almost a sure thing

I think calling off in a satellite under these conditions is almost unquestionably wrong because he's in such a good position to just cruise along, picking up pots now and then against the stack sizes who are rarely going to play back against his stack

Correct.

But I agree with Estelle, were this a standard MTT. Pick a better spot.

Even though the pot odds may be just about there for a call, following JoeEagles reasoning, it`s an error to rely overly on such reasoning in the late stages of an MTT. Going into big confrontations as an underdog works in a ring game (if you have the odds) because you can rebuy should the cards not fall for you. In the long run, you will win.

Mathematically, the same thing applies to tournies also, but you need to be aware that "the long run" in the context of MTTs may be years rather than minutes if you play this way. Not smart.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Disclaimer: This is assuming it's a 'standard' MTT. In a satellite I think it's a pretty basic fold for reasons already given

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.098% 31.92% 05.18% 4449955512 721705411.00 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 25.298% 24.14% 01.16% 3364994013 161728219.00 { 22+, A2s+, K8s+, Q9s+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 37.604% 32.94% 04.66% 4591977903 650207122.00 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }

i don't think this is an 'insta'-anything. The fact that we don't have much more than 1/3 equity against those pretty standard ranges for a button shove and call (one could also argue the button's range is narrower as he is shoving 14-15BBs) is certainly interesting.

Anyway, we're in a great position chip-wise, no need to call off huge portions of our big stack just because it's slightly pot odds-favourable when there are a lot of shorties to pick on and take uncontested pots from.

 

[blankoblanco]

Sigh. Weak-tight alert

"Why? Because you can't fold AK?"

lol. You have no idea how I play

Again, I'm saying if this exact scenario happened in an MTT. First of all, their ranges would be much wider in an MTT than in this satellite. MTT is about chip accumulation. You want to win all the chips. Sometimes "survival" is the best way to win all the chips because you don't have an edge. Often it's not. Satellites are about surviving til point x.. you get no bonus for extra chips

The BUTTON open-shoved a 14 BB stack into the blinds, and there's antes. You guys think that looks strong? He's on the button and practically in push or fold mode. You want him to raise 20% of his stack and then fold? What do you expect him to do with A9 here? KQ? KJ? It's a +EV shove for him with any of those hands. And in turn the SB should be shoving AJ, AQ, tons of medium pairs

The blinds are high in relations to the stacks.. chip accumulation is absolutely key, and winning that pot puts us in such an incredibly good position to play big stack bully and make so many more chips. You play an MTT to win the damn thing. Soooo many people completely misunderstand how the incredibly top-heavy nature of an MTT influences play. If the payout structure were more even it would be so completely different, and that's the way you guys are approaching it

And if it means anything to you, the well-respected top ranking 2+2 posters in their High Stakes MTT forum would unanimously laugh at the idea of folding AKs here, without incredibly strong reads suggesting otherwise, and they're a hell of a lot better than me or likely any of you

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Again, disregarding the fact this is a satellite hand and treating it as a 'standard' MTT

combu,

What immediate strategic advantage does having a ~24k stack afford us that having a ~12k stack doesn't at this table where the next biggest stack is less than 8k?

(ok so one of the two all in guys will have ~10k after this hand, but he will be either two to our right or immediately to our right, which is good for us)

MTT is about chip accumulation.

Yeah, and with a soon-to-be big stack just to our right and plenty of shorties to feed from we will have plenty of chances to accumulate chips that don't rely on calling large portions of our stack off. We're in a great position to make many more chips as the situation currently stands - the only real change occurs if we call and lose (which will happen over 60% of the time), then we're right back in the pack.

The strategic edge we lose by calling and losing far outweighs the strategic advantage we gain from calling and winning.

I do agree that the button is hardly painting a picture of strength here, but I think the range I gave him in my last post reflects that. Perhaps SB could be calling off his stack more loosely than AA-99/AK-AQ, but not by much, assuming he's an average player (which is all we can assume given that he's new to the table).

(FWIW I think the decision is actually pretty close and am just playing devil's advocate to some extent, although I still veer towards folding)

Also combu, do you call with AQ(s) here?

 

[hott_estelle]

Sigh. Weak-tight alert

"Why? Because you can't fold AK?"

lol. You have no idea how I play

Read my post please, I never said I did know how you play. I don't care how you play, that's not what I was basing my opinion off of. I was just asking why you stated this:

"DOUBLE EDIT: I disagree with one thing though, I'm making this call in a regular MTT no matter what stage it's in

I don't care how you play. I wasn't insulting you. All I wanted was for you to defend why you would make the call in a regular MTT no matter what stage.

MTT is about chip accumulation.

Yes, it absolutely is, but that doesn't mean that you put your chips in the middle, just because there is already a decent amount of chips in there for you to win if you get lucky and win the hand--that most likely you're going to be behind going into it.

MTTs are about chip accumulation, but they are about accumulating chips through ideal situations, and how you go about accumulating chips also depends on the stack you have, blinds, stages in tourney, other players on your table, ect, ect, ect.

Early stages in a MTT, (like Chuck's situation above, but in a MTT situation since that's what we're discussing--we've already all agreed in a satellite this is a routine fold--and it also should be a fold in a MTT as well, but that is what we are arguing here) it is about chip accumulation, more than survival. However, this does not mean risking about half your stack with a hand like AK, against 2 other players already in the hand, especially in Chuck's scenario. He already has accumulated a decent amount of chips, and yes you should never stop trying to accumulate chips obv, but just because you have a big stack does not mean you have to gamble off half your stack when you're most likely behind.

With that stack, you can pick better spots to accumulate chips, than tossing half the chips in with AK against two other plays already all in.

Also, back to your statement, MTTs are about chip accumulation and about going deep in tourneys--this point should be key into this decision. Just because you only have 12,000 chips, and leaders have like 50,000 or 60,000 chips, at this stage in the tourney, it doesn't mean anything. It doesn't mean that you need to go start risking half you stack on AK, because you think that you need to keep on accumulating a massive chip stack. Even if the average chip stack was about 20,000 chips, and you had 12,000 chips, that doesn't matter--only thing that matters is the blinds and antes at this point in the tourney. You shouldn't concentrate on how you are doing in relation to the other players in the field, but you should only be concentrating on your stack against the blinds--especially in these early stages in the tourney (as in the first 2-3 hours of most online tourneys).

The first 2-3 hours of most online tourneys, the average chips or chip leaders' chip stacks should be of no concern to you. We are trying to go deep in tourneys. And if we reach our goals, the blinds will be about 5000/10,000 by then, and it really won't matter if we did risk half our stack with AK in the early stages of the tourney against 2 other players already all-in to win 10,000 more chips. It will be more of a hit to lose half your stack of 12,000 chips at 200/400 blinds in the early stages of the tourney, than it will be a benefit to you to possibly gain 10,000 chips in that situation--when most likely you will be behind with just AK.

Yes the call isn't absolutely horrible, and I can see why some people may argue for the call with AK there, but in the end, the fold is the best play here.

 

[joosebuck]

i make a crying fold. we are likely sharing outs without the best hand at the moment being the main reason.

 

[blankoblanco]

Just to clarify, I was exaggerating saying that they'd "laugh at the idea" of folding AK here. I just meant that almost none of them would ever do it or really consider it if in the situation

Chris: AQ I'd fold but it wouldn't completely shock me if some of the more adventurous high ranked tournament pros with incredible results would even call with AQ here. AK is nice because AQ is a big enough part (although towards the upper end) of either range, and it covers for the rare times either player has QQ. It's enough difference in equity for me

A few months ago I'd have folded AK, until I read more 2+2 posts by these guys with so many huge finishes in very large samples. I just learned that I never truly appreciated how for example, 1st place being worth twenty times more than 9th place, changes the complexion of an MTT. By no means am I a maniac, and in general I <3 fold equity and don't like calling off, but in this position with AKs I am calling here unless I know for a fact SB is a total nit

This 12k stack here is not all it's cracked up to be. It's good but it's 30 BBs. The 8k stacks and even the average stacks know they can hurt us pretty bad. Play becomes so much easier with a 24k stack IMO. Very few of the other stacks will even feel like they can damage us, and they're rarely going to play back without solid strength. I've been in this spot a few rare times before, and it makes picking up dead money so nice and easy. I think the overall result is incredibly profitable

 

[blankoblanco]

Yes the call isn't absolutely horrible, and I can see why some people may argue for the call with AK there, but in the end, the fold is the best play here.

I guess you understand MTTs better than high stakes players, many of whom are top ranked online in the world and who play tournaments for a living. I mean, sorry, but I'm going to listen to people with more credibility

The 2+2 Forums: Quick check: AKs vs. two all-ins

I simply added a 0 to every number so it can pass off as Sunday Million or some other donkament, otherwise high stakes players won't look at it

cliffnotes: every person has said call so far

Maybe some of you should just accept that it's possible you don't understand the nature of MTTs, purely as far the elevated payouts and greatest +EV in $$$ value strategies, as well as these guys who have played tens of thousands of them with stellar results?

 

[ChuckTs]

Basically, as Chris questioned, I just don't see how moving from a 12K to a 24K stack will help us significantly enough for me to call this. Maybe because it's because I'm not strong enough with the big stack. Maybe because it's not. Maybe cause I don't understand.

I do understand that chip accumulation is the name of the game, but if I'm in the middle-late stages with a comfortable top ~%10, 30BB stack, I don't think I need to risk this hand. Isn't the tourney stage a pretty big factor here too?

edit: and yes, I'll be the first to admit, I don't fully understand the nature of MTTs. I've always been an STT player, and have tried expanding, but they both obv have completely different strategic concepts.

 

[joeeagles]

I really think that part of the beauty of poker is that everyone sees it differently, like this situation here (if instead of a satellite we treat it as an MTT). I respectfully disagree with those who think this is a fold. Many times I've read throughout the forum statements like this:

with plenty of shorties to feed from we will have plenty of chances to accumulate chips that don't rely on calling large portions of our stack off. We're in a great position to make many more chips as the situation currently stands

While this certainly is an important strategy in any tournament, the idea that this alone will take you far in an MTT is a myth, and a huge misconception. If you really think that in a big field you NEVER need to call off a large portion of your stack, well then, unless you get a real hot run of cards or you're playing against an incredibly soft field, you'll eventually run out of real estate. Stealing blinds twice every orbit, getting called once in a while and taking it down on a c-bet and stuff like that is, yes, the way to go for 9/18 seat sitngos, but you're fooling yourself if you think this alone will take you deep in an MTT.

Consider first of all that with the aggressive play online, your blind steals and c-bets won't work every time, and those who play should know that. I think the only time this strategy applies is when you have a really huge chip lead. In our example, 12k hardly qualifies as that. With 12k and blinds at 200/400, an ill-advised PF raise and c-bet hurts us really bad, and you guys seem to ignore that possibility but it happens often enough.

I respectfully disagree also with the idea that having a ~24k stack as compared to a ~12k stack doesn't give us a big strategic advantage. I really don't know why anyone would think otherwise. I believe the difference is huge and well worth the risk, and it is so much more important for the purpose of reaching that goal that is mentioned in your quote. A 24k stack now does allow me to play small pot much better than a 12k stack does.

Another thing is you say we will lose this over 60% of the time. I don't think that's the case. Even for the SB (whom we have no reads on) the range is wider than you think. Many players there would call a button shove with AQ -AJ, hands that we're dominating. Heck, we could be dominating both of them. Not sure what makes you guys think that we're rarely a favored here. Lets put it this way, if you're the SB and you have AQ or AJ, would you fold to a button shove in an uncontested pot, knowing he's fairly aggressive? I don't think you would, and you're not going to worry about the BB waking up with AK either.

But as I posted already before, even if it turns out 1 of them has queens and the other AJ (which eliminates one of my outs), I'm still 37% (1.7 to 1) to win and if I call I'm getting better than that on my money (2.3 to 1). I strongly disagree with the line that even if its "only slightly" pot odds favorable you should still let it go. At some point in time during an MTT, like it or not, you are forced to put a big chunk of your stack at risk, and I'd rather do it when pot odds give me an edge, like in this case. IMO, if you constantly avoid these confrontations, soon or later the blinds catch up with you and then you're forced to shove your whole stack with less than premium hands. So again its coming down to a different view we have on optimal MTT strategy. Small pot poker is ok for small sitngos, its not enough for large field MTT's. As Vahedi put it "you have to be willing to die in order to live".

Pretty much this concept is the same as the one Combu explained as "chip accumulation", only he explained it much better plus he added the reasoning of payouts being heavy toward the first 3 places in every MTT, which makes taking advantage of any edge even more important. Needless to say since its pretty clear, I fully agree with those statements.

 

[ChuckTs]

Another thing is you say we will lose this over 60% of the time. I don't think that's the case.

Even with this ridiculously loose range set:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.851% 45.31% 01.55% 11769136271 401433466.17 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 23.759% 23.47% 00.29% 6097508023 74487383.17 { random }
Hand 2: 29.390% 27.71% 01.68% 7198853528 435740382.67 { 22+, A7s+, K8s+, Q9s+, JTs, A7o+, K8o+, Q9o+, JTo }

We're only ~45% to win, and not getting odds to call. Against their ranges, we can't be a favourite above %50.

Even for the SB (whom we have no reads on) the range is wider than you think. Many players there would call a button shove with AQ -AJ, hands that we're dominating. Heck, we could be dominating both of them.

And they could also call with AA or KK. The point is that the range of SB is ahead of us (IMO).

Not sure what makes you guys think that we're rarely a favored here. Lets put it this way, if you're the SB and you have AQ or AJ, would you fold to a button shove in an uncontested pot, knowing he's fairly aggressive? I don't think you would, and you're not going to worry about the BB waking up with AK either.

Remember, the SB is new to the table and hasn't seen a single hand from the button. He's calling based on zero reads. He's got to have a very solid hand.

 

[blankoblanco]

We're only ~45% to win, and not getting odds to call.

I'm confused. Even 30% to win is getting odds to call

 

[ChuckTs]

*checks math

 

[ChuckTs]

Ignore above post, I suk at mafs

 

[blankoblanco]

If 30% to win, it's actually borderline, but we're usually more than that IMO. I also think it makes a very big difference that we'll still have an average stack if we lose

It seems that a lot of the high rankers take the approach of using a biggish stack like this to press every possible edge to try and create a monster stack. If something like this fails, well, you're back to average with another chance and you can look to build again. Hell, the approach works for them. If used correctly, a monster stack can just be a really really powerful edge

The only hands we possibly don't like to see are AA, KK, or another AK. Premium hands. It's just hardly possible for me to consider these all that likely given the action we've seen. And even if facing another AK, this is not particularly bad unless the other player has a pair. If these hands aren't involved, we're always getting more than odds to make it +chip EV. When not at risk of being crippled or put out of the tournament, I think the +chip EV play is usually pretty solid to go by

I think the really really rare times they have AA or KK are made up for by the times both have smaller pairs and we're over 40%, or the times they both have dominated stuff (KQ, AJ KJ, AQ, KT AQ, mix 'n match.. more likely to be the case than the bad scenarios just by pure statistics) and we're in great shape getting an awesome price on our money

 

[joeeagles]

Even with this ridiculously loose range set:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.851% 45.31% 01.55% 11769136271 401433466.17 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 23.759% 23.47% 00.29% 6097508023 74487383.17 { random }
Hand 2: 29.390% 27.71% 01.68% 7198853528 435740382.67 { 22+, A7s+, K8s+, Q9s+, JTs, A7o+, K8o+, Q9o+, JTo }

We're only ~45% to win, and not getting odds to call. Against their ranges, we can't be a favourite above %50.

How do you figure we're not getting odds to call? You have to put 5470 in a 12478 pot (2.3 to 1). The only case you don't have odds to call is if one of them has AA or KK, which isn't likely. If you're up against 2 weaker aces, you're almost 60% to win. If you're up against AQ or AJ (SB) and any 2 unpaired cards (button) you're around 50% to win. Those scenarios are both very possible (much more than being up vs AA or KK).



And they could also call with AA or KK. The point is that the range of SB is ahead of us (IMO).

As already said, AA and KK aren't likely, and by no means the range of SB is necessarily ahead of you. Please don't tell me you're folding AQ-AJ in the SB to a button shove in an uncontested pot every time.



Remember, the SB is new to the table and hasn't seen a single hand from the button. He's calling based on zero reads. He's got to have a very solid hand.

His hand has to be solid enough to call a button shove in an uncontested pot. What range are you assigning to this? Although possible, its not only hands that have us WB. Again, would you fold AQ here every time?

Answers in bold.

Chuck out of curiosity, how did you come up with that 45%? I ran some simulations on poker calculator with those hands that I posted. Not sure how you got never being more than a 50% favored. Just curious because something seems wrong in those figures and I don't know that program you posted there.