AKs in BSB play; $5 rebuy sat

[ChuckTs]

How do you figure we're not getting odds to call? You have to put 5470 in a 12478 pot (2.3 to 1).

Like I said, I screwed the math up - I realize against this range we're getting odds. Against Chris' (more accurate) range, it's more borderline.

The only case you don't have odds to call is if one of them has AA or KK, which isn't likely. If you're up against 2 weaker aces, you're almost 60% to win. If you're up against AQ or AJ (SB) and any 2 unpaired cards (button) you're around 50% to win. Those scenarios are both very possible (much more than being up vs AA or KK).

Picking a certain hand (or two for two opponents) and deciding whether or not to call is silly. We look at ranges - against their ranges we have about %30 equity according to Chris' set. Regardless, we're getting odds to call anyways - I'm just an idiot and didn't look at the math right.

As already said, AA and KK aren't likely, and by no means the range of SB is necessarily ahead of you. Please don't tell me you're folding AQ-AJ in the SB to a button shove in an uncontested pot every time.

Egh, I'm not gonna argue about this. They're both possible, one more likely than the other, and pokerstove has already calculated the numbers for us based on the fairly accurate range that Chris provided. I got the pot odds calc all wrong and screwed that up. If we're not getting odds to call, it's at least very close.

His hand has to be solid enough to call a button shove in an uncontested pot. What range are you assigning to this? Although possible, its not only hands that have us WB. Again, would you fold AQ here every time?

I'm not sure which you mean (button push or SB call), but Chris' range is pretty spot-on. Button was raising with a very wide range, and SB probably calls with 9s and AQ +. I'm not coming to a new table and folding AQ there every time, but I'm definitely not calling it every time either. Nor am I calling AJ every time. I'd like to get a read on my opponent before calling off my whole stack readless, although I do agree a button push is hardly screaming strength.

Chuck out of curiosity, how did you come up with that 45%? I ran some simulations on poker calculator with those hands that I posted. Not sure how you got never being more than a 50% favored. Just curious because something seems wrong in those figures and I don't know that program you posted there.

Again, Joe, of course we're favourites vs AJ and AJ or whatever. We're crushing them, but against their range, we're only about a %30 favourite. I'm not sure if your calc does ranges or just certain hands vs certain hands, but pokerstove does. Hand ranges take the % probability of each hand, and calculate their collective averages vs our hand. In this case, it's about

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.098% 31.92% 05.18% 4449955512 721705411.00 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 25.298% 24.14% 01.16% 3364994013 161728219.00 { 22+, A2s+, K8s+, Q9s+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 37.604% 32.94% 04.66% 4591977903 650207122.00 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }

^^^that close.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

hay guys i'm trying to work but i like this thread too much

i make a crying fold. we are likely sharing outs without the best hand at the moment being the main reason.

+1

While this certainly is an important strategy in any tournament, the idea that this alone will take you far in an MTT is a myth, and a huge misconception. If you really think that in a big field you NEVER need to call off a large portion of your stack, well then, unless you get a real hot run of cards or you're playing against an incredibly soft field, you'll eventually run out of real estate. Stealing blinds twice every orbit, getting called once in a while and taking it down on a c-bet and stuff like that is, yes, the way to go for 9/18 seat sitngos, but you're fooling yourself if you think this alone will take you deep in an MTT.

I never said never - I just don't think we should be gambling here where we only have marginally more than 1/3 equity against two standard ranges. Obviously if anyone shoves and it gets folded to us we make an absolutely standard call, but the caller complicates matters here.

Consider first of all that with the aggressive play online, your blind steals and c-bets won't work every time, and those who play should know that. I think the only time this strategy applies is when you have a really huge chip lead. In our example, 12k hardly qualifies as that. With 12k and blinds at 200/400, an ill-advised PF raise and c-bet hurts us really bad, and you guys seem to ignore that possibility but it happens often enough.

True enough, but with the situation as it is currently with a soon-to-be big stack to our right and us having reraise fold equity against him and with shorties everywhere else, they will work more often than in your 'average' situation.

I respectfully disagree also with the idea that having a ~24k stack as compared to a ~12k stack doesn't give us a big strategic advantage. I really don't know why anyone would think otherwise. I believe the difference is huge and well worth the risk, and it is so much more important for the purpose of reaching that goal that is mentioned in your quote. A 24k stack now does allow me to play small pot much better than a 12k stack does.

The problem is your strategic edge is limited by the other stacks, and as such you can raise and get people to fold, you can reraise and get people to fold, you can raise and make a sizeable c-bet if called, you can call off your stack against anyone and survive, but you don't really have any preflop 4-bet fold equity (or post c-bet fold equity) whether you have 12k or 568974565456k.

Of course, the larger stack allows us to take a hit and still have a large stack, but looking at things from an immediate strategic perspective (and it's not like we're going to be running around looking to lose pots ^^), losing hurts us more than winning aids us.

Another thing is you say we will lose this over 60% of the time. I don't think that's the case. Even for the SB (whom we have no reads on) the range is wider than you think. Many players there would call a button shove with AQ -AJ, hands that we're dominating. Heck, we could be dominating both of them. Not sure what makes you guys think that we're rarely a favored here. Lets put it this way, if you're the SB and you have AQ or AJ, would you fold to a button shove in an uncontested pot, knowing he's fairly aggressive? I don't think you would, and you're not going to worry about the BB waking up with AK either.

Maybe we can add AJ to SB's range but it's marginal. Even if we do I think the PStove numbers will have us at <60% to win. What ranges are you giving Button and SB that give us >60%?

 

[alan1983]

I think its a fold, but only reason i might call is we have a healthy stack to bounce back to, so might afford to make a call here.

But thing is, were hoping for 2 weaker aces here, and thats not any more likely than facing AA or KK.

Most likely holding is an ace and a pair like it turned out, and were racing against the pair with other guy having one of our outs.

If this put my tourney on the line then id be pretty sure im going in this as a dog and id fold.

 

[blankoblanco]

I simply think the times we're down one measly out because we're sharing a card are pretty easily made up for by the times we're "sharing outs" with both players, AKA we're dominating both of them

Maybe we can add AJ to SB's range but it's marginal.

If you're folding AJ in the blinds to an open shove from a button who's very likely in push-or-fold mode, I think you're incredibly exploitable. AJ is easily in SB's range IMO, as well as 88, and that's only the minimum

Anyway, good discussion all around. IMO what it most largely comes down to is:

Maybe some of you should just accept that it's possible you don't understand the nature of MTTs, purely as far the elevated payouts and greatest +EV in $$$ value strategies, as well as these guys who have played tens of thousands of them with stellar results

If this were an SNG it's an easy fold. I think this decision is as much about the payout scale and advantages of monster stackage as anything else

Honestly, do we think the entire High Stakes MTT forum on 2+2 shares the same exact leak, despite making their livings off MTTs, and only Cardschat holds the solution? Fold here if you'd like. I'll be calling

 

[joeeagles]

lol I have to work too and I can't make a nice post like I would like to, but anyway....answers in bold

The problem is your strategic edge is limited by the other stacks, and as such you can raise and get people to fold, you can reraise and get people to fold, you can raise and make a sizeable c-bet if called, you can call off your stack against anyone and survive, but you don't really have any preflop 4-bet fold equity (or post c-bet fold equity) whether you have 12k or 568974565456k.

Of course, the larger stack allows us to take a hit and still have a large stack, but looking at things from an immediate strategic perspective (and it's not like we're going to be running around looking to lose pots ^^), losing hurts us more than winning aids us.

Just because it still doesn't give you 4bet FE doesn't mean it's not a huge difference from 12k to 24k. Of course we're not running around looking to drop chips here and there but occasionally it does happen and having 24k rather than 12k allows you to keep applying pressure even it does occur.


Maybe we can add AJ to SB's range but it's marginal. Even if we do I think the PStove numbers will have us at <60% to win. What ranges are you giving Button and SB that give us >60%?

Well I don't use pokerstove, I just throw in hands that are more probable and get the percentages for each one each time. Pokerstove gives you the average against a range of hands, which is fine but I think the end result is a little tainted because including aces and kings in their range brings the average down. Its ok to include those hands in the SB's range, but the button really never has AA or KK because otherwise he wouldn't open shove when it was folded to him, he'd likely limp or raise a standard 3 BB's. I think the best hand BB could have is AK, but more likely something weaker than that. The SB could have aces or kings, but not likely so and his range, we know, given the circumstances, is certainly bigger than that.

TBH though it's ok I think to view this as a fold. What really bothers me and I strongly disagree with is the concept that many times I've seen here to avoid big confrontations and play small pot. Well yes, that's an important part also of a huge field MTT but that alone will not take you deep in the MTT.

But I think we should save this for another thread, maybe some of our more experienced (Irexes?) MTT players should start something like this in the strategy section, so we can have a good discussion about it and exchange ideas. What Combu said about MTT's being heavily tilted toward the first 3 is absolutely true, and most on-line tournies (99% of them) are not like the wsop where the average stack has 200 BB's. Unless we play those deep stack ones where the blinds raise every 30 minutes (and a 1000+ field battles for like 9 hours lol) we usually work with ~20/30 BB's at best, and when something goes wrong you're in push mode very often even with much less than premiums. All this puts even a greater emphasis on the importance of chip accumulation.

I'd love to write more but have to go.

 

[joeeagles]

Most likely holding is an ace and a pair like it turned out, and were racing against the pair with other guy having one of our outs.

You're right Alan, that is the more likely scenario and it has us at 37% or better to win, so I'm calling cause we're 1.7 to 1 to win and getting 2.3 to 1 from the pot.

 

[alan1983]

You're right Alan, that is the more likely scenario and it has us at 37% or better to win, so I'm calling cause we're 1.7 to 1 to win and getting 2.3 to 1 from the pot.

even if it puts you allin?