A Definite Answer

[The Shrog]

I've decided to post (I know, yet another) AK hand analysis. This will not be an open-ended thread to have everyone start throwing opinions around on AK, how it loses them so much money, ect. I am looking for some responses based on the given game, strategy, and mathematical decision. Here goes:

pokerstars Game #22684400864: Tournament #125340411, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2008/12/06 18:47:18 ET
Table '125340411 1' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: oursaff (1500 in chips)
Seat 3: psy4-69 (1500 in chips)
Seat 4: AsNasLion (1500 in chips)
Seat 5: scotty_bro (1500 in chips)
Seat 6: THE SHR0G (1500 in chips)
Seat 7: Tjallex (1500 in chips)
Seat 8: KingPottAA (1500 in chips)
Seat 9: skinsfan1964 (1500 in chips)
psy4-69: posts small blind 10
AsNasLion: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to THE SHR0G [As Kh]
scotty_bro: calls 20
THE SHR0G: raises 60 to 80
Tjallex: folds
KingPottAA: folds
skinsfan1964: folds
oursaff: raises 300 to 380
psy4-69: folds
AsNasLion: folds
scotty_bro: folds


I think the more times I see hands like this in the $5 STT's, villain is showing up with a hand like JJ/QQ, and occasionally the KK or AA. I'm starting to wonder if a shove here with AKo is profitable over hundreds of games. I rarely see this play at this level with a hand that we are ahead of, and any fold equity is completely out the window once our opponent has put the re-raise in.

So, what is the more profitable play here?

 

[Egon Towst]

This appears to be the first hand of the game, and presumably we have no reads ?

If your assessment is correct, and villain will usually have QQ or JJ (which would be a coinflip), and sometimes AA, KK (which would make you underdog), then calling is going to lose you money in the long term and you should fold.

I suspect, however, that his range is wider than that. My instinct is to call. If I win and take an early chiplead, my chances of dominating the table and winning the tourney are greatly improved.

If I lose and bust out early, I shrug and move on to the next game. I have not wasted much of my time.

 

[The Shrog]

This appears to be the first hand of the game, and presumably we have no reads ?

Correct, first hand, no reads.

I suspect, however, that his range is wider than that. My instinct is to call. If I win and take an early chiplead, my chances of dominating the table and winning the tourney are greatly improved.

So, you flat the 300 more and play the hand OOP? What do we do the 2/3 of the time the hand misses the flop?

 

[Jillychemung]

In my experience we have the dilemma of 1) We have little/no fold equity here. If we shove, 90% of the time we are called vs 2) Villain's range is somewhat wider than JJ+,AK, I'd put it at 77+,KQ+ If you cash even 75% of the time you double up in the 1st level then I think you have to call here. Dropping from 1500 to 1120 on the 1st hand at this level is easily overcome.

 

[WVHillbilly]

Shove. It's the 1st hand and his range is generally much wider than you're giving him credit for.

 

[vanquish]

take him to summer jam, he will show up with worse a ton of times, and sometimes he even folds better !

 

[rzrbck1968]

allin

i have seen that alot of players here lately will push allin with AA-99 .so if a player just does a 5-10x pot raise and i got AK i would push allin. even if he calls and you miss, you have not wasted alot of time trying to build your chipback up after a call . and if you fold he is going to think he can reraise you out of more pots.

 

[p0K35]

So, you flat the 300 more and play the hand OOP? What do we do the 2/3 of the time the hand misses the flop?

Why are you asking this? You did open raise 4X OOP? Right????

What do you do when you hit the flop 1/3???

You play a donkfest, and post this? Have to give credit when due:

"Making sophisticated plays against unsophisticated players will surely result in your being busted from the tournament." - Victor H.Royer

I'm liking that jewel of common sense, more and more each day...

FOLD, your open raise is a sure sign of weakness, and when pp6, reraises, you find out some info:

1. They trapping you, first hand like, in a donkfest.
2. They didn't go allin, so 1.
3. That is a cheap reraise, first hand like, in a donkfest.
4. Don't raise in the 1st place, just CALL, then you can call the 300 quite comfortably.
5. Your initial raise, and reraise, seems to clear out the "flop bunnies", so back to 1.
6. This is a poker 101???
7. IF the board texture is suitable. OOP, you fire out the cbet, and take the hand down, or check fold to any aggression.
8. 7 assumes DA calls the reraise.
9. Assume fetal pos, and hope "Dabeear" goes away, "tuff fish" like?
10. Always fold to ANY reraise. Oops, repeating 1.

 

[vanquish]

10. Always fold to ANY reraise.

11. We don't stop playing because we get old. We get old because we stop playing.

 

[Steveg1976]

Why are you asking this? You did open raise 4X OOP? Right????

What do you do when you hit the flop 1/3???

You play a donkfest, and post this? Have to give credit when due:



I'm liking that jewel of common sense, more and more each day...

FOLD, your open raise is a sure sign of weakness, and when pp6, reraises, you find out some info:

1. They trapping you, first hand like, in a donkfest.
2. They didn't go allin, so 1.
3. That is a cheap reraise, first hand like, in a donkfest.
4. Don't raise in the 1st place, just CALL, then you can call the 300 quite comfortably.
5. Your initial raise, and reraise, seems to clear out the "flop bunnies", so back to 1.
6. This is a poker 101???
7. IF the board texture is suitable. OOP, you fire out the cbet, and take the hand down, or check fold to any aggression.
8. 7 assumes DA calls the reraise.
9. Assume fetal pos, and hope "Dabeear" goes away, "tuff fish" like?
10. Always fold to ANY reraise. Oops, repeating 1.

Is this a joke I just don't get? the only good advice in this post is you quoting someone else....

 

[Egon Towst]

So, you flat the 300 more and play the hand OOP? What do we do the 2/3 of the time the hand misses the flop?

I`m sorry, I should have been more specific. I was playing a tourney at the time and trying to post briefly.

You could play it as a Stop and Go. Call preflop and then shove on the flop regardless of the board. It`s true that you miss more often than not, but so does villain. He will feel unable to call in the majority of cases.

Alternatively, you could shove preflop. Either seems to me a viable line.

 

[young hova]

lol, @ take him to summer jam

yeah im kinda with vanquish, I have no problem with a shove here on the first hand and if I lose it is what it is. I think that would probably be a profitable move over time, from a first hand stand point, I'm probably generalizing with no real proof, lol. Being that its the first hand I would be willing to take this chance more often than not here considering that these tourneys are donk infested. Thats just what I would do.

BUT, based on what you said you have seen:

I think the more times I see hands like this in the $5 STT's, villain is showing up with a hand like JJ/QQ, and occasionally the KK or AA. I'm starting to wonder if a shove here with AKo is profitable over hundreds of games. I rarely see this play at this level with a hand that we are ahead of, and any fold equity is completely out the window once our opponent has put the re-raise in.

I'm thinking your most profitable line is probably c/f or just fold since u haven't gained any chips yet. I say c/f cus I'm thinking its a good chance the other player may stack off no matter what the flop comes, so I'm thinking the implied odds are really good here. Still have plenty of chips to play with when you whiff and since u said aa kk is occasional here u rarely gotta worried about being dominated by that. Now if people aren't c-betting when they are reraising here no matter what the flop comes you may be better off folding because if an ace comes you probably won't get to check raise often with those type of players, obviously you probably wouldnt really know this because its early in the tournament, I think its safe to say anyone reraising you is going to c-bet more times than not no matter what the flop comes so you'll scoop that bet too when you hit and some times they make pot committing bets. when a king comes you'll definitely probably get paid more than if an ace comes too.

I think the only argument to fold here imo is that you either really sure your dominated by aces or kings, or you don't want to risk any more chips because you havent even had a chance to attain any chips yet to begin with.


I still say shove, but you play the tournaments so You would know and if thats what you see I would say c/f when you whiff, c/cr when u hit, I think the implied odds are just to good here.

 

[switch0723]

11. We don't stop playing because we get old. We get old because we stop playing.

12. When luck shuts the door

 

[vanquish]

12. When luck shuts the door

13. What does a guy with AIDS call his penis?
14. Magic Johnson

 

[Kenzie 96]

13. What does a guy with AIDS call his penis?
14. Magic Johnson

Trying to decide if no mention in what passes for the mainstream media, of the significance of this date in U.S. history, makes me feel better or worse. Can't decide.

I am sure the above made me laugh though, Thanks Van.

 

[dj11]

Fresh response before reading any other responses;

I see this is a first level hand. Neither you nor you villain has much of a read on the table and players.

But AK is a worthy hand to get a looksee.

Personally this may be a leak in my game, but if I was sure I could cap the betting I would, and usually do, call here.

As for profitable? On a purely pragmatic point, it is exactly according to the coinflip odds if villain has less than AA, KK.

Points that I might consider besides the 1st level aspect are that this is a Saturday game, and the fishes school on the weekends. It might be noteworthy about where this villain is. If he shows a European Address, it would be very late in his weekend night, and drinking might be a factor. Likewise any east of the Mississippi cities as many players will have been gang watching big college football games and drinking might again be involved. Obviously any chat before this hand might be important to consider.

The fact that villain didn't shove here suggests a better hand than had he shoved. Drunk or not! In generally I would read the size of his raise perhaps indicating a mid pair, and thus your in a coin flip.

As I write this tho, over and over I come back to the first level issue. And more importantly this is the first hand of a STT.

You're in the classic damned if you do, damned if you don't situation.

I still favor the call here, and IMO a raise is gambling. If you hit, great, prepare to stack or get stacked. If you miss, you will have shown a willingness to engage and in future hands your villain will remember that fact. You will of course fold to a move if you miss.

Now, again, I will read the truly valid replies.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Why are you asking this? You did open raise 4X OOP? Right????

What do you do when you hit the flop 1/3???

You play a donkfest, and post this? Have to give credit when due:



I'm liking that jewel of common sense, more and more each day...

FOLD, your open raise is a sure sign of weakness, and when pp6, reraises, you find out some info:

1. They trapping you, first hand like, in a donkfest.
2. They didn't go allin, so 1.
3. That is a cheap reraise, first hand like, in a donkfest.
4. Don't raise in the 1st place, just CALL, then you can call the 300 quite comfortably.
5. Your initial raise, and reraise, seems to clear out the "flop bunnies", so back to 1.
6. This is a poker 101???
7. IF the board texture is suitable. OOP, you fire out the cbet, and take the hand down, or check fold to any aggression.
8. 7 assumes DA calls the reraise.
9. Assume fetal pos, and hope "Dabeear" goes away, "tuff fish" like?
10. Always fold to ANY reraise. Oops, repeating 1.

i'm having a very hard time believing that you're not a gimmick account

 

[Dwilius]

Why are you asking this? You did open raise 4X OOP? Right????

FOLD, your open raise is a sure sign of weakness...

4. Don't raise in the 1st place, just CALL, then you can call the 300 quite comfortably.

10. Always fold to ANY reraise.

This may be your worst advice yet...so we should limp with AK, openraising means weakness (guess you're in the limp/reraise boat)...wait instead of raising we should limp/call a 15 bb raise OOP...omg I need a break

...ok and we should fold to any reraise. Since we're limping with AK what will our raising range be? The hands that we'll raise/fold with, what are those?

 

[The Shrog]

Call. See the flop. THEN play some poker.

Preflop BS is a little overrated, but poker happens on the later streets, imo.

I think...yes..I THINK, in STT's, most decisions are made preflop.

This may be your worst advice yet...so we should limp with AK, openraising means weakness (guess you're in the limp reraise boat)...wait instead of raising we should limp/call a 15 bb raise OOP...omg I need a break

This. Beat me to it. Thanks D'wilius.

Ooh my, I'm for real. This post is SO stupid, I had to make a little funny jest reply.

If a post you read is "stupid", how about doing the rest of us a favor and keeping your comments to yourself?

 

[dufferdevon]

I was hoping that he was kidding.

Back to the hand. I don't know that there is a right or wrong way to play this one. Reasons for Re-raising all in, calling and folding:

Folding:

This big a re-raise shows strength and could be AA or KK - even if it is a mid pp that read you for AK or AQ, we're still flipping. You have not invested that much into the pot and the SNG has just started.

Calling:

If you hit the flop and bet out and villain raises you again, now what? You're still going to be behind AA and KK, in this case all the chips are going in the middle anyway. You either double up (40%) or bust (60%).

You bet and villain folds. So now your stack is $1850 (big deal).

Re-raise all in:

You are way behind 25% of the time (AA or KK) - flipping 50% of the time (pp) - way ahead 25% of the time (AQ-AJ)

I changed my mind, this is a clear fold at this stage of the SNG. Too much risk for too little reward.

 

[dufferdevon]

This is too weird. I got this hand right after my post. Twilight zone time.

PokerStars Game #22723551166: Tournament #123490408, $2.00+$0.20 Hold'em No
Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2008/12/08 0:19:19 ET
Table '123490408 146' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: djgolfcan (7300 in chips)
Seat 2: simplystones (2410 in chips)
Seat 3: pike916 (1165 in chips)
Seat 4: maxer123 (3240 in chips)
Seat 5: resnagrem (3275 in chips)
Seat 6: priest58585 (1460 in chips)
Seat 7: Jfall13 (8310 in chips)
Seat 8: vlasta81 (9880 in chips)
Seat 9: Holdenper (5835 in chips)
Holdenper: posts small blind 75
djgolfcan: posts big blind 150
HOLE CARDS

Dealt to djgolfcan

simplystones: folds
pike916: folds
maxer123: folds
resnagrem: folds
priest58585: raises 450 to 600
Jfall13: folds
vlasta81: calls 600
Holdenper: raises 2400 to 3000
vlasta81 said, "that was my chips "
Holdenper said, "yup"
djgolfcan said, "wow, I cant believe i am folding this"
djgolfcan: folds
Holdenper said, "u do well"
priest58585: calls 860 and is all-in
vlasta81: folds
Uncalled bet (1540) returned to Holdenper
djgolfcan said, "AK"

FLOP:

TURN:

RIVER:

SHOW DOWN :
Holdenper: shows

(two pair, Aces and Fives)
priest58585: shows

(two pair, Fives and Deuces)
Holdenper collected 3670 from pot

 

[blankoblanco]

calling is by far the worst option here. it will never ever ever be profitable. you miss 2/3 of the time, you're OOP, and you're rarely going to get paid off when you have the best hand. you also let worse hands steal the pot from you a ton. the times that you do get it all-in in good shape, it's going to be because he had AQ or something and you both hit. well if he has AQ and he's playing it this strong pre, it means he prob wants to stack off anyway. it's a $5 tourney

egon, i must say that your stop 'n go play is pretty counterintuitive. there just aren't many tiny pairs in his range. the only likely benefit of it is that we may fold him off another AK that would have chopped. but we'll also fold him off of AQ/AJ/whatever crap we were crushing preflop which would be a bad result. otherwise, his range is largely big-medium pairs that aren't folding when the flop comes without an A or K anyway, and that aren't paying us off when it DOES come an A or K

AK is generally one of the worst hands you can stop 'n go with. it usually doesn't make sense because the range of hands you're folding out are hands that you have very good equity vs. preflop

 

[blankoblanco]

How is this a stop-n-go? If you can open raise, OOP(and then use that as an excuse, bleh), what do you really want here?

i was referring to egon's suggestion that we call and then push the flop, aka a stop 'n go. try reading

my point was that shoving and folding are both definitively better than calling vs. basically any opponent. against an unknown as we are in this situation, i'd shove, but folding isn't terrible. calling is

 

[shinedown.45]

Really! Then what is your open raise, OOP, supposed to do? Give you some info? What did you find out?

Iffin, STT is all preflop, when do you play poker?



Brilliant. Howsa not posting "stoopid" content, in the first place. If you can't take opinion, stop posting on a "poker forum". You drew 1st blood. Just offering my opinion...

So what did you do?



How is this a stop-n-go? If you can open raise, OOP(and then use that as an excuse, bleh), what do you really want here?



So, what is the best option? You taint saying much. Personally, I prefer a cheezburger to a grilled cheese, what do you think?

You can easily follow:

http://theshrog.blogspot.com/

But it offers little insight.

Dead this thread, not much i can do here...

alright p0K, I have sat here quietly through all your responses to numerous posts since you have joined this site and have this to say:
You have given the worst advice by far and if you're not giving bad advice, if it is solid advice, then you are being far to cryptic in your responses, as we here on this planet like to be straight forward and to the point.
There are times when I don't give advice on hands just for the simple fact that I do not want to tell someone to play "bunnie poker"(whatever that means).
If you truly want us to understand your responses, then please enlighten us on your poker analogies.
I'm not trying to be rude here and if I sound like it I appologise, I'm just putting my thoughts down .

 

[p0K35]

alright p0K, I have sat here quietly through all your responses to numerous posts since you have joined this site and have this to say:..

Nuffin.

Just call, pretty cheap, some will say headsup, but your ISOLATED! That should be what you wanted, open raise like!

DOH, dblDOH!