$6.61 NLHE MTT: KILLING POT ODDS THEORY ON OVERCARDS

[Jdjakubisin]

As I reviewed my VENOM STEP 2 latest game I was checking myself as to my habits in poker math. Basically the guy bets 75% pot post-turn after all checks post flop and 5 players calling the BB preflop. The turn card, a 6, felt like a straight draw.

I called with ace-high, which felt right but I want to know how anyone else would look at this. I have A-9, three aces left and 3 9's to make a low pair maybe no good means about 10% chance of making either, and the 9 may be no good.

I figure there could be one but not likely two calls after me meaning the pot will be either 650 or 500 just me and him, and I'd commit 23-30%.

I was a significant big stack to note as well and bigger afterwards. This isn't an action packed hand, I just see so many people doing numbers on these hands. I hear people ask me "how do you know it's right?" They can be hard to block out at times.


Game Hand #54796588 - Tournament #10687608 - Holdem(No Limit) - Level 2 (20.00/40.00)- 2019/05/27 16:29:55 UTC
Table '1' 8-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: LJ (1995.00)
Seat 2: HJ (2279.00)
Seat 3: CO (4697.00)
Seat 4: BU (1857.00)
Seat 5: SB (2326.00)
Seat 6: BB (2904.00)
Seat 8: HERO (3688.00)

SB posts the small blind 20.00
BB posts the big blind 40.00

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO[Ah 9c]
JD HERO calls 40.00 UTG

LJ folds
HJ calls 40.00
CO calls 40.00
BU folds
SB calls 20.00
BB checks

*** FLOP *** [Jh Kh 8h]
Main pot 200.00
SB checks
BB checks
HERO checks
LJ checks
HJ checks

*** TURN *** [Jh Kh 8h] [6s]
Main pot 200.00

SB checks
BB bets 150.00
HERO CALLS 150.00
LJ folds
HJ folds
SB folds

*** RIVER *** [Jh Kh 8h 6s] [9s]
Main pot 500.00
BB checks
HERO checks

*** SHOW DOWN ***
Main pot 500.00

 

[skeptix]

You should be folding pre-flop. As played, I like betting the flop instead of checking. As played on flop, I do call turn bet and generally check back river (though you might consider turning your hand into a bluff sometimes).

 

[Brawo]

I don't see any right decision here. Call from an UTG, what did you expect? It is not even conversion the hand into bluff.
A9o is easy fold, what's more A9s is a problematic hand too.
You are chip leader, you can efectively exert a pressure. Here you are waiting for happiness in my opinion. Call on the turn, 150 to 350 pot odds = 1:2,3 it's burn your own chips. If you had a read that this guy bet any pot post-turn you should play check-raise, but it's still spot without future in my opinion.

 

[Jdjakubisin]

As far as the UTG call A9 I definitely would have folded if the blinds were much higher, to a raise from late, or if I was holding on for dear life.

What are the odds of Ace high over an open-ender, as I ended up correctly assuming. He had 9-7.

Open ender= 8 outs (16%) + 6 more cards could pair his hole cards= 14 outs still gives him less than 30% chance and the guy commits another 150/500= 30%, so it made sense to me and told me I was still a 2-1 favorite.

Maybe I just enjoy being wrong and winning but I wasn't disappointed yet.