$55 NLHE MTT: Final table vs good aggro reg: Sick rivers and chat metagame!

[pat3392]

Final table with 5 left. Villain has been an absolute boss at these final two tables. He's the most aggro by far and has been running people over. I've been super tight due to two very aggro opponents directly on my left but he might see me as scared money or weak tight because of this. Anything Ive shown done has been rock solid.

Im pretty sure he thinks that I have JJ+ here. I have ~380,000 left on the river

Thoughts on his chat also please.

poker stars $50+$5 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t8000/t16000 Blinds + t1600 - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

Hero (CO): t693198 M = 21.66
BTN: t805651 M = 25.18
SB: t882669 M = 27.58
BB: t576076 M = 18.00
UTG: t351406 M = 10.98

Pre Flop: (t32000) Hero is CO with 9

J

1 fold, Hero raises to t32000, BTN calls t32000, SB calls t24000, BB calls t16000

Flop: (t136000) 9

3

T

(4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets t84400, BTN calls t84400, SB folds, BB folds

Turn: (t304800) 9

(2 players)
Hero bets t195592, BTN calls t195592

River: (t695984) T

(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets t480000, BTN says "dont try to be a hero", BTN says "payjumps are huge",

 

[ben_rhyno]

I think you have to call, there is too many hands you beat to fold but I've never played at such a large FT. How many Tens can you see being in his range?? The way its played looks like a flush draw but a good reg could be showing up with a ten all day long. Real tough spot imo. Who is the reg if you don't mind me asking?

 

[ben_rhyno]

Alos, could 33 show up here aswell?

 

[BluffYou123]

Horrible river. I think he is trying to make you think it's a bluff with his chat so you'll call. He has a 10 IMO.

On the other hand, if he does think you are just interested in moving up the money it could very easily be a 78/JQ/complete air bluff. Having built such a monster pot it's a very tough laydown.

 

[ben_rhyno]

It really depends on how much the money means to you aswell, if folding here is bad for this hand, UTG has an M of 10 and you will still hav M= 11 so you won't be in immediate trouble and will definitely be able to wait for another good spot. IDK really tough spot

 

[Lofwyr]

So villain has been very aggressive the entire final table? Had you seen him take this line before? Basically a call-down -> put you all-in type line? I dunno...I see villain turning up a flush, air (includes med PP) or the last 9 a lot more often than they turn up a T.

This is so hugely villain dependent, but if he's basically been a huge aggro bully then his range is too full of random shit to fold. If he has a T he probably pops you on the flop, if he really puts you on a range that would only be JJ+ on the turn then I don't think he can call there, either has to raise/fold with a T. The chat on the river does kinda make me think he wants a call, but he could easily have a 9 here too...as his line works much better with a 9 than a T imho.

 

[shinedown.45]

Personally, I would have not min-raised preflop because min-rasing is a strong sign of weakness, especially if you made standard 3XBB+ previously when you had a real hand.
Another mistake IMO was the strange bet sizing by you, I for one do not respect strange bet sizes and alot of others don't either.

As for the hand, your min-raise preflop allowed villian in with J-10+ IMO and you're behind to any 10.

 

[KingCurtis]

My problem here is that you said he was the most aggro the last final two tables. My first instinct was snap call his river bet. Your check was an aggro's wet dream for taking down a pot to a c bet wimp who cant fire the last bullet.

Then I was like could he be good enough to slow play something then make it look like he was being aggressive on the river, likely not, but worth thinking about.

Also assume chat was off and you never saw what he said, how does this change your decision?

tough decision here as other than pre-flop you played this decently. Depending on pay jumps and your stack after the call, I'd call...

 

[loopmeister]

Ooph, this is tough.

If I'm villain, and I think you're playing tight, I have you on 33, JJ+, 99, 9T, A9, AT, TT, TJ, AsKs, KsQs.

All those hands play more or less the same way.

My range is presumably wide, but I can expect you to fold 33, JJ+, AsKs, KsQs to a shove. That makes up around 50% of your range, So an all-in bluff is getting good odds here. If I actually have a hand, which is a 9 or T, then it's a perfectly disguised value bet.

With that in mind, villain can bluff here with whatever he has; but whatever he has called two bets. I think villains calling range on the flop does not change by the river.

A loose range is something like 22+ 97+ T8+, painted spades.

A tight range is JJ+ 97+ T8+

A third possibility is that villain is calling knowing that a bluff on the river is profitable with air and is calling you down with his full preflop range waiting to shove the river.

You're slightly ahead of his likely range here, and since he is bluffing so often by the reckoning above, this is a +cEV call.

But is it a +$EV call? It might very well not be. We'd need the payout structure to work that out.

 

[loopmeister]

Pat, have you posted this hh in the midstakes forum on 2p2? It's a much bigger community and it's such an interesting hand it may be worthwhile getting opinions from there too.