$55 NLHE: $50+5 NLHE: Please tell me why this fold is so Horrible

[Squidmonkey]

$55 NL HE: $50+5 NL HE: Please tell me why this fold is so Horrible

I layed this hand down after much thought and after the hand was over let the table in on what i layed down. I got a TON of flack from the player with the aces and a few people agreed with him. The way i saw it is that I'm still in the tournament. I know about pot odds and stuff but i KNEW i was beat and was only 35% to win the hand on the flop. Well here is the hand. Feel free to criticise the hell out of my play.
pokerstars Game #29517135947: Tournament #171772624, $50+$5 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2009/06/18 14:23:17 MT [2009/06/18 16:23:17 ET]
Table '171772624 116' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: oldcynic (6813 in chips)
Seat 2: david_a (3730 in chips)
Seat 3: PPSH41 (5287 in chips)
Seat 4: Jochen0907 (4545 in chips)
Seat 5: kosta28 (2900 in chips)
Seat 6: rocket_ron22 (5347 in chips)
Seat 7: thecitybaron (9625 in chips)
Seat 8: UnluckyBoy13 (10250 in chips)
Seat 9: schiziq (7717 in chips)
schiziq: posts small blind 100
oldcynic: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PPSH41 [Kc Ac]
david_a: raises 325 to 525
PPSH41: calls 525
Jochen0907: calls 525
kosta28: folds
rocket_ron22: folds
thecitybaron: folds
UnluckyBoy13: folds
schiziq: calls 425
oldcynic: folds
*** FLOP *** [2c Kh Qc]
schiziq: checks
david_a: bets 1425
PPSH41: calls 1425
Jochen0907: raises 2595 to 4020 and is all-in
schiziq: raises 3172 to 7192 and is all-in
david_a: calls 1780 and is all-in
PPSH41: folds
Uncalled bet (3172) returned to schiziq
PPSH41 said, "layed down the AK of clubs you *******s"
*** TURN *** [2c Kh Qc] 6♣
*** RIVER *** [2c Kh Qc 6c] J♥
PPSH41 said, "GOD"
*** SHOW DOWN ***
schiziq: shows [2s Ks] (two pair, Kings and Deuces)
Jochen0907: shows [Qd Kd] (two pair, Kings and Queens)
Jochen0907 collected 1630 from side pot
david_a: shows [Ah As] (a pair of Aces)
Jochen0907 collected 13340 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 14970 Main pot 13340. Side pot 1630. | Rake 0
Board [2c Kh Qc 6c Jh]
Seat 1: oldcynic (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: david_a showed [Ah As] and lost with a pair of Aces
Seat 3: PPSH41 folded on the Flop
Seat 4: Jochen0907 showed [Qd Kd] and won (14970) with two pair, Kings and Queens
Seat 5: kosta28 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: rocket_ron22 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: thecitybaron folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: UnluckyBoy13 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: schiziq (small blind) showed [2s Ks] and lost with two pair, Kings and Deuces

 

[Squidmonkey]

Ps i have 44,590 in chips at the second break of this tournament now. Come rail me if you want

 

[JohnnyFronts]

I dont see one mistake anywhere in the hand. The players in this hand were obv inferior (barring maybe the player with KQ) since there was a bet, call, jam, jam, and jam in front of you. How can one pair ever be good with 3 jams worth of action ahead of you? If they were chatting about your "bad" fold, then I would have simply typed "You're right" into the chatbox and let them keep thinking they were making the right plays. Good work, hope you finished deep.

 

[JohnnyFronts]

My bad. I dont know how I missed the fact that you had the nut flush draw. Still a good fold since you KNOW that all you have is a flush draw and you are behind. Yeah the odds were there, but if you are still doing fine picking up chips elsewhere then I say find a fold.

 

[Squidmonkey]

Thanks man that makes me feel a little better about it, besides i'm in 17th of 117 right now, first place is 14,000 something so i'm doing just fine without that big pot anyways.

 

[aznman08]

so they gave you flack big deal. even though you folded the nuts, given how the initial pf raiser bet the pot, and got raised all-in twice, top pair with top kicker plus nut flush draw isnt much considering you might be up against a set or two pair already. Hard but strong lay down

 

[gamedemon]

Top pair with a nut flush draw... you have to shove in that position if you are in it to win the tourney and not just finish in the money.

 

[Lemlywinks]

meh i think the fold is fine tbh. He still has ~26 blinds and if he has a good read that he is beat and is confident that he can get his money in better at a later time, i see no problem w/ it.

Winning a tournament doesn't have to involve making brash plays and being continuously aggressive. You can usually find a good spot to get your money in with

 

[vanquish]

you had a really really really good hand and you got action and you folded

 

[sky4ever]

well this is a tough one...with top pair and a flush draw it`s a coin flip against an over pair, and since this is a 55$ tourney your not in a good position to take coin flips at this stage for all of your chips, but...your situation is even worse, you have an ace kicker to improve to 2pair and since he had aces you would still not improve to beat him therefore this case of yours it`s not even a coinflip, it`s like you said 35%, and on top of that 2 players already called his all in, and in this spot some1 could easely have floped a set in witch case the above statement it`s irelevant.All things considered, your fold is 100% the correct play.

 

[WurlyQ]

You have 1950 invested in the pot. You need to call off 3337 to win 15782 which means break even is about 17% equity.

The worse case scenario is that someone has trip queens, your Ace is covered, and your 2s are covered. In this scenario, you have 32.5% equity which is far greater than break even. Passing up small edges due to superior skill is understandable but this is a significant edge that you can not pass up. This is even more so in a large tournament where the prize pool is top heavy.

This is essentially an option to multiply your stack by six, 32.5% of the time (at worst). Do you pass up that opportunity?

 

[dsvw56]

This fold is basically horrible. Anyone who would fold here or thinks this is a good fold seriously needs to rethink their approach to poker.

 

[baudib1]

I would quit poker before I folded this.

 

[baudib1]

I think this is a realistic range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
HERO: 32.315% 31.79% 00.52% 860319 14116.50 { AcKc }
UTG: 12.896% 12.42% 00.48% 336041 12919.50 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
UTG+2: 43.301% 43.04% 00.26% 1164648 7074.00 { QQ, 22, KQs, KQo }
BB: 11.489% 11.20% 00.28% 303187 7695.00 { 22, AKs, KJs+, K2s, JTs, Tc9c, 9c8c, AKo, KJo+, K2o, JTo }

This is a clear call. In fact, you should call with a lot worse hands. Snap call this with JT or any flush draw. This is a rare case where you should probably call with a gutshot. If you have Ac with an offsuit J or T, you have about 19% equity, which is a call.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

PPSH41 said, "layed down the AK of clubs you *******s"

well aren't you a charmer

 

[robert_wrath]

If you folded your hand thinking one of the two other players had flopped a set or four to a flush, yes laying down top pair/top kicker is the correct move by instinct. Despite the criticism, your opponents aren't playing for you to win. Play the hand out your way. A fifty dollar buy in isn't all that cheap. Excellent lay downs are the key to higher cash earnings in tournament play.

 

[sky4ever]

You guys are mixing up cash game play with tournaments play here...in a tournament you`d better not be taking pot odds in consideration when playing for all of your chips.Yes he had an enormous edge if you factor pot odds, even in worst case scenario.But think about it this way: You are at a large wsop tournament, you get involved in a hand where you have 32.5% chance to multiply your stack by 6, so you are 67.5% to get kicked off the tournament and waste that 1 bullet if you call.Besides that, if you fold you still remain with a stack around 26 BBs witch is enough to camp and wait for a better spot.What do you do ?
In a cash game it`s a clear call, but if you get used to calling in tournaments while you are behind and still have the alternative, it`s just a wrong play.

 

[DEdwardsNJ]

I don't think a fold is completely horrible here. It's pretty obvious that he is behind at the moment. He ended up being in about the best scenario he could hope for with them both having 2 pair as I think often one of them shows up with a set here and your 3 As are not outs and even if you hit the flush, they have a redraw to a full house. In that case you're only around 33%. You generally don't want to be calling off your stack in situations where you are going to be out of the tournament 2/3 of the time.

I think if at least one of these players is solid, I might find a fold. But against 2 randoms, I probably call given that I have already committed 40% of my stack.

 

[baudib1]

As for the last two posts, you guys are completely and utterly wrong.

Your goal in MTTs is not to try to stay alive and camp for a "better spot." This is about as good as it gets. Making tough laydowns and/or avoiding coolers is NOT how you become profitable at MTTs. Because even if you make big (wrong) laydowns, you will only make the money 15% of the time or so. And the vast majority of the time when you make it, it will only be for your buyin or a little more. You need to make it to the final table to make your 4/5/6 hours of time worthwhile, and really make it into the top 3, which makes up for those other 99 times out of 100.

Which means: You need a monster stack.

Folding with 9 clean outs to the nuts in a 75 BB pot with just 16 BBs remaining is absurdly terribad.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

You guys are mixing up cash game play with tournaments play here...in a tournament you`d better not be taking pot odds in consideration when playing for all of your chips.Yes he had an enormous edge if you factor pot odds, even in worst case scenario.But think about it this way: You are at a large WSOP tournament, you get involved in a hand where you have 32.5% chance to multiply your stack by 6, so you are 67.5% to get kicked off the tournament and waste that 1 bullet if you call.Besides that, if you fold you still remain with a stack around 26 BBs witch is enough to camp and wait for a better spot.What do you do ?
In a cash game it`s a clear call, but if you get used to calling in tournaments while you are behind and still have the alternative, it`s just a wrong play.

you're one of those people who would fold aces first hand if 5 people went allin before you, aren't you?

I think this is a realistic range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
HERO: 32.315% 31.79% 00.52% 860319 14116.50 { AcKc }
UTG: 12.896% 12.42% 00.48% 336041 12919.50 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
UTG+2: 43.301% 43.04% 00.26% 1164648 7074.00 { QQ, 22, KQs, KQo }
BB: 11.489% 11.20% 00.28% 303187 7695.00 { 22, AKs, KJs+, K2s, JTs, Tc9c, 9c8c, AKo, KJo+, K2o, JTo }

This is a clear call. In fact, you should call with a lot worse hands. Snap call this with JT or any flush draw. This is a rare case where you should probably call with a gutshot. If you have Ac with an offsuit J or T, you have about 19% equity, which is a call.

topic should have been over here.

 

[Four Dogs]

Not sure why you didn't raise pf or on the flop, but once you faced a call a raise and a shove you were right to fold. No way TPTK is winning this. Good fold.

 

[sky4ever]

Which means: You need a monster stack.

Not entirely true.I reached final tables medium-short staked and cashed in top 3 many times to realize that you don`t NEED a monster stack.However it helps
a lot if you have huge stack.

you're one of those people who would fold aces first hand if 5 people went allin before you, aren't you?

Yes, I am.

 

[sky4ever]

Folding with 9 clean outs to the nuts in a 75 BB pot with just 16 BBs remaining is absurdly terribad.

My bad, I actually miss-read the blind levels regarding this hand, somehow I saw 50-100 witch would leave him with a lot more than 25 BBs if he folded.
In this case however, remaining with 16BBs if folded, I would have called not to remain short-staked but if the situation was a bit different and I would be left with a medium stack I would still fold.

 

[baudib1]

I reached final tables medium-short staked and cashed in top 3 many times to realize that you don`t NEED a monster stack.However it helps
a lot if you have huge stack.

The odds on this are EXTREMELY long. This kind of mentality is perfect for SnGs while bad for MTTs. Basically in MTTs you are playing to win it/finish top 3, which is frustrating and can lead to long dry spells because it's so hard to do. In this spot you have to get "lucky" just once (and, to be honest, there's a non-zero chance that we have the best hand here anyway). To get back up to 90 BBs are folding here, we have to get lucky many times.

Also I should note that calling any bet for 30% of our stack is just horrible, unless we're trapping with a flopped a boat/quads/straight flush. Call-folding is just incredibly terrible. Shoving this flop 100% of the time is the most +EV play we can make and frankly we should be shoving preflop.

 

[KoRnholio]

Without the flush draw, I could see laying down tptk there. But with the nut flush draw, we have great equity even against a set plus whatever other hands these monkies are shoving with.