$5 NLHE: Question on pot odds?

[brettstix]

$5 NL HE: Question on pot odds?

Third hand of 18 player 2 table sit n go. No info on villain other than sharkscope and OPR show him tracking negative except 1 big MTT win.

Stacks:
UTG+1 with 1440
MP1 with 1500
MP2 with 1260
MP3 with 1560
CO with 1920
BTN with 1420
SB with 1370
BB with 1560
UTG with 1470

Blinds:
Site: Full Tilt Poker
Dealt to UTG:A♦ A♥
Sklansky group 1
Preflop:
Hero raises to 120 (3 x Big Blind)
3 players fold.
MP3 calls [120]
2 players fold.
SB calls [100]
1 players folded.
Total folds this street: 6
Potsize: 400
Flop:
A♠ 3♠ J♦ (I know I am ahead. Worst case scenario villain has KQ or K10 of spades and I am 2-1 favourite)
SB checks
Hero bets [280]
MP3 calls [280]
1 players folded.
Total folds this street: 1
Potsize: 960
Turn:
Q♦
Hero bets [480]
1 players fold.
MP3 raises to 1,160, and is all in
Hero calls [590] [ all-in ]
MP3 shows :
Uncalled bet of 90 returned to MP3
Potsize: 3190
River:
4♦

I am still coming to terms with pot odds and at the moment and usually I am copping a beating at the tables. My bet post flop was to discourage a drawing type hand. If I have 2 opponents should that be higher? Half bet post flop still confident. His all in makes me consider he may have K 10 or Ax of diamonds however I'm not folding to his shove anyway. If I'm beaten here (K 10) I still think I have the right odds to call and I feel committed.

After showdown I feel happy with how I played the hand but still wonder if I should have played it differently considering the odds.

Any thoughts would be great.

 

[Melkor]

You played this hand well and there certainly wasn't any glaring errors. The preflop raise is completely correct from UTG, 3x. On the flop you haven't slowplayed which a lot of beginner players do with a big hand and your bet is pretty much dead on, not giving terrible odds for a draw or a jack or even the case ace and making sure they call while extracting value. I would say on the turn the pot is at 940 and our stack size becomes an issue here.

We started the hand with 1470. We bet 120 preflop. We are down to 1350 and bet 280 on the flop. Our stack is now 1070 and the pot after villains call is at 960. We are committed to the pot and draws remain after the turn. There is now more draws with pairs as well. That is why I like an all-in here. It is only a pot size bet and diamonds and a pair or two pair or a straight draw and a pair will call. If we bet anything we will call a shove and if we are called we are going all-in on the river anyway.

Ignoring our stack and focusing on the villains, if they are going to call a bet of say 400 they will call an all-in. If they fold to a shove they would fold to 300 or 400. So we may as well get it in as either way the result is the same but we just get more value when we think we are ahead and betting 300 and then being called and going all-in on a non-diamond or ten river is just letting villain off the hook by giving them another chance to fold.

You are correct that pot odds dictate a call on the turn but it is not just pot odds as we are ahead of a lot of holdings. Remember, we have the ace of diamonds. The Q and J of diamonds are out. So if villain has a flush draw it is going to be the KT of diamonds or T9. K9 and K8 and the other draws are unlikely to call a raise preflop or the bet on the flop. If villain has KT especially of diamonds it is just a cold deck, we forget it and move on to the next SnG.

Lets look at the hands we are beating though. It is unlikely villain has the last A in the deck however we must include AQ, AJ and AT. AK reraises preflop most likely. More likely is KQ, KJ, QJ, QT, JT and maybe even JJ. We even should include 33 which made a set and was trying to slowplay. So the hands we beat are much more numerous than the hands we are losing to. We are ahead of his range and have to get it in.

Remember if we get beat, in SnGs the chances to double up are few and far between and when a good hand comes along we have to grab the opportunity with both hands. If you got beat here it was unlucky, you played it well.

 

[Jillychemung]

This hand really illustrates why bet sizing is so important. With a big hand, right from the start you should be looking at how can I get my stack all-in with bet sizes that appear to be natural.

For this hand there are 2 ways, bet a bit larger preflop due to being UTG or bet a bit larger on the flop.

Larger bet UTG
3.5xBB on flop = 140 + 2 calls = 280 + BB = 40 = 460 pot
Your stack now = 1300
MP3 stack = 1420
SB stack = 1230

Flop bet of say 300 + MP3 call + 460 = 1060
Your stack now = 1000
MP3 stack = 1120

Now on the turn it is so natural to go all-in and MP3 will have a just a scratch over 2:1 odds to call you and there are few hands with which a call here is right but they way it has played out MP3 could end up calling with a lot of hands.

Bigger bet on the flop

preflop pot = 400
Your stack = 1350
MP3 stack = 1440
SB stack = 1250

Flop bet of 325 + MP3 call + 400 pot = 1050
Your stack = 1025
MP3 stack = 1115

So again you have the same relationship in play.

 

[Melkor]

Very good post Jilly, I would say that it is much easier to make the post-flop bet a bit bigger as we know how many villains are in the hand and there respective stacksizes rather than pricing people out preflop.

 

[Jillychemung]

If they will call an UTG raise of 3xBB, they will call a 3.5xBB raise